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Le Tour 2018 stage 15: Millau - Carcassonne 181,5 km

In its 15th stage the Tour de France sets sail for the Pyrenees. At 181.5 kilometres, the race runs from Millau to Carcassonne, which is the gateway to the last days of action in the high mountains. Three intermediate climbs before an mega-long descent leads to a finale on the flat.

The riders start near the Millau Viaduct, which is the tallest cable-stayed road bridge in the world, and set off for a hilly stage with the Col de Sié and Pic de Nore standing out.

Shortly after the start the peloton is offered to stretch the legs on the Côte de Luzençon, while others may want to use the hill as a launch platform to take. The 3.1 kilometres climb at 5.9% is crested at kilometre 9. The route continues on rolling roads until the Col de Sié appears at kilometre 54. It is a 10.2 kilometres climb with an average gradient of 4.9%. The first half is steepest, while the second half features some flat sections.

A long drop – yet, with intermediate uphill stretches – takes the riders to the foot of the Pic de Nore. The first 7 kilometres are averaging 7.5%, while the seventh kilometer is steepest at 9.4%. The next 4 kilometres go up at 5.4%, while the climb flattens out to a false flat just before the summit, which is crested with 41.5 kilometres left to race. A mega-long plunge runs to 6 kilometres on the flat before the ultimate kilometre once again is a false flat.

stage-15-profile.jpg


stage-15-pic-de-nore.jpg
 
Agree this is for the break but expect Alaphillipe to take a day off. Stages 16, 17 and 19 have those weird double mountain points on final climb (even when not the finish) so the points today seem pretty insignificant (especially since he’ll really struggle to get maximum on the final climb today).

I’ll say Ion Izagirre again (missed the break today after getting caught back in early echelons). Wouldn’t surprise also to see Adam Yates try.
 
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TourOfSardinia said:
How is the descent after Pic de Nore?
Could some one on GT get away/stay away?

Apparently pretty technical but highly highly unlikely to make a GC difference because still 25km of basically flat from the bottom of the descent. Usually before a rest day I expect GC action but not here. Horrible parcours in general. No hilly stages plus few mountain finishes equals GC boredom.
 
I think we'll see a lot of the same guys in the break as yesterday: Sagan, Alaphilippe, Van Avermaet, Fraile, Caruso, Chavanel, Calmejane, Gorka, De Gendt, Gilbert and Impey. Then there are some obvious breakaway candidates like Barguil, Andersen x 2, Ion, Mollema, Herrada, Marczynski, Vichot, Kangert, Pauwels etc. It would be nice to see someone like Valverde or Jungels join the break as well, but I don't think that's very likely.
 
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Laplaz said:
GC guys to come to the finish line 20 minutes after the break. At least.

Whoever is having a good day would be crazy to allow such a slow pace. Nobody can win the Tour today, but at the end of a hard second week, it is possible that someone of relevance could crack on the final climb. Why allow Sky to soft pedal to the extent that the break wins by 20 minutes, when secretly one of Sky's leaders is having a bad day? It's certainly not a day for GC attacks, but if Sky isn't riding hard then another team should go to the front and ride a solid tempo for the first few kms of the final climb and see if there is any weakness. Unlikely to result in much, but after all, tomorrow is a rest day, so why not?

The race is still potentially wide open, with the first four riders in GC either being unproven over three weeks or having ridden the Giro.
 
There is a chance for crosswinds after the last summit so expect a fast and furious descent & finish.

Weather forecast - https://weather.com/weather/today/l/FRXX0025:1:FR
A good deal of sunshine. Very warm. High 27C. Winds WNW at 15 to 30 km/h.

http://inrng.com/2018/07/tour-de-france-stage-15-preview-carcassonne/#more-34108
There’s 41.5km to go from the top of the climb and the descent is similar to the climb, steeper at first and the gradient eases by Cabrespine and the plains of the Cabardès to Carcassonne. The road isn’t flat to the finish, there are a few rises to exploit. The big difficulty is how the road is exposed to the wind, passing the monoculture of vineyards, fields of sunflowers, harvested wheat and so little shelter to the promised crosswind.

Today's map of the stage -
stage-15-route.jpg


Expect Sky to go fast up last climb to launch Dawg, G & at least 1 dom over the top. If Roglic & Tommy D can follow it could be a fun finale.
 
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wirral said:
A lot of the previews think that this will be won by a sprinter who can get over the last climb.

That’s certainly a possibility. The profile reminds me a little of stage 13 2011 when Jeremy Roy led Thor Hushovd by two mins over the Col d’Aubisque, which peaked with about 40km to go and got chased down.

I think there will be some strong climbers in the break who will have at least that kind of lead over the top from any “sprinters” remaining in the break.
 
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Lequack said:
Why do the keep ruining these stages by adding 20+km of flat at the end. This plays into the hands of strong teams like Sky.

Downhill finish stages can be very dramatic too. As always it depends on how hard it's raced.

Of course this is near 100% a breakaway stage, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a rest day for the GC guys.
 
Sep 13, 2016
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capuldemetal said:
jsem94 said:
There is some wind from the NW, 5-6 m/s, so about 20km/hr winds. Nothing extreme and probably will not force splits even if it's the right direction of winds.
on a french forum they said that the last 75 k's will be with cross winds.

Which forum?