It feels like it's only been a month, but it's already Itzulia time once more.
Stage 1
The top of Azazeta is positioned 22 km from the finish. As you can see on the profile, the descent is trickier than the ascent (EF are not participating, so we won't be seeing a trademark attempt from Kerbaol).
There's a kicker of 1 km at around 5% which ends 9 km from the line. There are 5 roundabouts in the last 3 km before the riders will take a right turn 250m from the line (Visma's VW duo isn't here to boss this one). A small amount of rain is expected to fall tomorrow, but it may be more likely to hit the riders closer to the start than to the finish.
Stage 2
This stage to Iban Mayo's hometown of Igorre is 30 km shorter than the first one, but it includes a varied selection of steep muritos and other shorter climbs. They are positioned a bit from the line, so there is definitely potential for some interesting racing from afar. The top of the uncategorised Astoreka is reached 23 from the line. There are two intermediate sprints in the last 20 km, which will both hand out 3, 2 and 1 second to the first three riders across them, if I understand the rules correctly. In between them, there's an 800 m rise at about 3% avg., 6% max. There are more teeny uphill stretches in the final, which could possibly be used to launch attacks if there's a smaller group in front at that point.
If the favorite(s) doesn't feel like attacking on the climbs or no one manages to get away, it's a possibility that this stage will end in a group sprint.
Stage 3
The final stage is per tradition a continuation of the women's Clásica San Sebastián. The day will bring the peloton through Olivia Baril's backyard and will once again feature Jaizkibel and Mendizorrotz as its main challenges, but there's a twist: Instead of using either only the Murgil Bidea, like in CSS and the first edition of Itzulia WE, or adding the Mendizorrotz pass on top of it, they'll be climbing Mendizorrotz from the west. This takes away that 1 km above 11% where Demi Vollering has crushed the competition two of the last three years, but it also means the top is now located much closer to the finish line again.
Gratefully borrowed from
@Devil's Elbow's 2023 TDF stage 2 analysis:
Venta de Orio is just another name for the western side of the Mendizorrotz pass.
And then only the descent from the Orio marker on this profile remains:
Start list: https://firstcycling.com/race.php?r=14244&y=2025&k=8
What to expect this weekend:
With the inclusion of the softer ascent of Mendizorrotz, it will no longer be as easy for Demi Vollering to drop everyone at will, but I still expect it to happen. The field is not as strong as in the Vuelta and neither is the FDJ team, so it could be possible to almost isolate Vollering on stage 2 (Muzic should of course be able to hold on, even if she has to do some pulling), but we also know that if she smells blood she will take every possibility to stomp the competition, even if it means attacking 40 km or further from the line.
But 2/3 stage may still end in a group sprint, and the lineup of sprinters is much worse than that of GC riders. Mischa Bredewold looks like the one to beat, like she also was last year, and if SDW can/is willing to work for her, she could end up amassing multiple bonifications.