- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
It feels like it's only been a month, but it's already Itzulia time once more.
Stage 1
The top of Azazeta is positioned 22 km from the finish. As you can see on the profile, the descent is trickier than the ascent (EF are not participating, so we won't be seeing a trademark attempt from Kerbaol).
There's a kicker of 1 km at around 5% which ends 9 km from the line. There are 5 roundabouts in the last 3 km before the riders will take a right turn 250m from the line (Visma's VW duo isn't here to boss this one). A small amount of rain is expected to fall tomorrow, but it may be more likely to hit the riders closer to the start than to the finish.
Stage 2
This stage to Iban Mayo's hometown of Igorre is 30 km shorter than the first one, but it includes a varied selection of steep muritos and other shorter climbs. They are positioned a bit from the line, so there is definitely potential for some interesting racing from afar. The top of the uncategorised Astoreka is reached 23 from the line. There are two intermediate sprints in the last 20 km, which will both hand out 3, 2 and 1 second to the first three riders across them, if I understand the rules correctly. In between them, there's an 800 m rise at about 3% avg., 6% max. There are more teeny uphill stretches in the final, which could possibly be used to launch attacks if there's a smaller group in front at that point.
If the favorite(s) doesn't feel like attacking on the climbs or no one manages to get away, it's a possibility that this stage will end in a group sprint.
Stage 3
The final stage is per tradition a continuation of the women's Clásica San Sebastián. The day will bring the peloton through Olivia Baril's backyard and will once again feature Jaizkibel and Mendizorrotz as its main challenges, but there's a twist: Instead of using either only the Murgil Bidea, like in CSS and the first edition of Itzulia WE, or adding the Mendizorrotz pass on top of it, they'll be climbing Mendizorrotz from the west. This takes away that 1 km above 11% where Demi Vollering has crushed the competition two of the last three years, but it also means the top is now located much closer to the finish line again.
Gratefully borrowed from @Devil's Elbow's 2023 TDF stage 2 analysis:
Venta de Orio is just another name for the western side of the Mendizorrotz pass.
And then only the descent from the Orio marker on this profile remains:
Start list: https://firstcycling.com/race.php?r=14244&y=2025&k=8
What to expect this weekend:
With the inclusion of the softer ascent of Mendizorrotz, it will no longer be as easy for Demi Vollering to drop everyone at will, but I still expect it to happen. The field is not as strong as in the Vuelta and neither is the FDJ team, so it could be possible to almost isolate Vollering on stage 2 (Muzic should of course be able to hold on, even if she has to do some pulling), but we also know that if she smells blood she will take every possibility to stomp the competition, even if it means attacking 40 km or further from the line.
But 2/3 stage may still end in a group sprint, and the lineup of sprinters is much worse than that of GC riders. Mischa Bredewold looks like the one to beat, like she also was last year, and if SDW can/is willing to work for her, she could end up amassing multiple bonifications.
Stage 1
The top of Azazeta is positioned 22 km from the finish. As you can see on the profile, the descent is trickier than the ascent (EF are not participating, so we won't be seeing a trademark attempt from Kerbaol).
There's a kicker of 1 km at around 5% which ends 9 km from the line. There are 5 roundabouts in the last 3 km before the riders will take a right turn 250m from the line (Visma's VW duo isn't here to boss this one). A small amount of rain is expected to fall tomorrow, but it may be more likely to hit the riders closer to the start than to the finish.
Stage 2
This stage to Iban Mayo's hometown of Igorre is 30 km shorter than the first one, but it includes a varied selection of steep muritos and other shorter climbs. They are positioned a bit from the line, so there is definitely potential for some interesting racing from afar. The top of the uncategorised Astoreka is reached 23 from the line. There are two intermediate sprints in the last 20 km, which will both hand out 3, 2 and 1 second to the first three riders across them, if I understand the rules correctly. In between them, there's an 800 m rise at about 3% avg., 6% max. There are more teeny uphill stretches in the final, which could possibly be used to launch attacks if there's a smaller group in front at that point.
If the favorite(s) doesn't feel like attacking on the climbs or no one manages to get away, it's a possibility that this stage will end in a group sprint.
Stage 3
The final stage is per tradition a continuation of the women's Clásica San Sebastián. The day will bring the peloton through Olivia Baril's backyard and will once again feature Jaizkibel and Mendizorrotz as its main challenges, but there's a twist: Instead of using either only the Murgil Bidea, like in CSS and the first edition of Itzulia WE, or adding the Mendizorrotz pass on top of it, they'll be climbing Mendizorrotz from the west. This takes away that 1 km above 11% where Demi Vollering has crushed the competition two of the last three years, but it also means the top is now located much closer to the finish line again.
Gratefully borrowed from @Devil's Elbow's 2023 TDF stage 2 analysis:
And then only the descent from the Orio marker on this profile remains:
Start list: https://firstcycling.com/race.php?r=14244&y=2025&k=8
What to expect this weekend:
With the inclusion of the softer ascent of Mendizorrotz, it will no longer be as easy for Demi Vollering to drop everyone at will, but I still expect it to happen. The field is not as strong as in the Vuelta and neither is the FDJ team, so it could be possible to almost isolate Vollering on stage 2 (Muzic should of course be able to hold on, even if she has to do some pulling), but we also know that if she smells blood she will take every possibility to stomp the competition, even if it means attacking 40 km or further from the line.
But 2/3 stage may still end in a group sprint, and the lineup of sprinters is much worse than that of GC riders. Mischa Bredewold looks like the one to beat, like she also was last year, and if SDW can/is willing to work for her, she could end up amassing multiple bonifications.
- Sep 20, 2017
- 11,627
- 21,859
- 28,180
Turns out that prediction was merely a hallucination...
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
13 km to go now. Morgane Coston has secured the QOM jersey for tomorrow. Bredewold has only scored one second out on the route, so she will have to win the stage to take yellow.
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
Häberlin and Bredewold won the battle to the corner which resulted in an easy win for Mischa ahead of Millie Couzens and Margaux Vigié.
VDB with the help of Harvey, Schreiber and the SDW actually decreased the gap significantly towards the line. I expect a fine will be coming their way soon. They closed down a minute during the last 5 km, if the GPS could be trusted. Ridiculous moto pacing.
VDB with the help of Harvey, Schreiber and the SDW actually decreased the gap significantly towards the line. I expect a fine will be coming their way soon. They closed down a minute during the last 5 km, if the GPS could be trusted. Ridiculous moto pacing.
Last edited:
- Oct 1, 2014
- 2,438
- 3,166
- 17,180
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
I hope she's okay, but that she doesn't start tomorrow. They were handed a 20 second penalty, but that still means she may have gained 40 seconds instead of losing even more time.
The existence or lack of video footage will determine if she's a pupil of Demare or Nibali. But this is a lesser known race, so she's at the mercy of spectators with smartphone cameras.
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
To be fair, I wouldn't actually mind it if there were a permanently extended 3 km rule so a rider would always get the same time as the winner of a flat stage, unless gaps opened up after a crash/mechanical. There's no doubt she would have finished in the front group if it hadn't been for the crash, which wasn't her fault, and without such a rule the team felt pressured to do something like this. The current rules are however not like that, and if you break them then the time obviously has to fit the crime. We didn't get to see whether they also surfed behind cars from other teams, which would of course be perfectly fine.
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
Van der Breggen has not started today, but it does, thankfully, sound like it's just as a precaution.
- May 5, 2010
- 49,913
- 28,415
- 28,180
There was a 25-rider break, but apparently the other riders weren't too interested in letting Vollering get away.
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
44 km left now. Vollering had mechanical earlier, but is back in the group. Van de Velde has attacked. The peloton is riding at a moderate pace.
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
It looks like Van de Velde will survive over the top. Only Mavi García is interested in keeping the pace up behind.
I'm watching in Basque, by the way. Not that I understand much, but they have mentioned Puck Pieterse a few times.
I'm watching in Basque, by the way. Not that I understand much, but they have mentioned Puck Pieterse a few times.
- May 5, 2010
- 49,913
- 28,415
- 28,180
How? Languages available:
English
French
Italian
Dutch
Polish
Spanish
Swdish
Turkish... for some reason...
German
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
I'm using black Basque magic, or sare pribatu birtuala as the locals call it.
Miermont has bridged across to Van de Velde. 6 km to the first intermediate sprint.
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
Geurts managed to make it up there as well, so now there's no seconds left to grab behind. A bit of a fail by SDW. They either needed Bredewold to take as many as possible today or to have Häberlin up the road.
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
There's been some regrouping in front, and now it's Smulder, Reijnhout and Meijering leading.
- May 5, 2010
- 49,913
- 28,415
- 28,180
- Sep 26, 2020
- 24,242
- 26,073
- 22,180
- Oct 1, 2014
- 2,438
- 3,166
- 17,180
Shout out to April Tacey for winning the big one! The Simac Omloop
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