Liège - Bastogne - Liège 2025, 27th April

[Berniece]

I don't think it's plausible if Pogacar is in top shape.
Pogacar has the best durability in the peloton and has proven he can gain time on better TTers even on flat or rolling terrain at the end of Monuments or very hard stages / races. In last year's Lombardia he destroyed Evenepoel in the 40 kms after Sormano.

All of these scenarios where Evenepoel has a chance against Pogacar depend on:
- Pogacar's shape declining and /or
- Evenepoel having improved compared to last year

Evenepoel wasn't even in great shape at the end of last year, while Pogacar was.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think it's plausible if Pogacar is in top shape.
Pogacar has the best durability in the peloton and has proven he can gain time on better TTers even on flat or rolling terrain at the end of Monuments or very hard stages / races. In last year's Lombardia he destroyed Evenepoel in the 40 kms after Sormano.

All of these scenarios where Evenepoel has a chance against Pogacar depend on:
- Pogacar's shape declining and /or
- Evenepoel having improved compared to last year

Evenepoel was simply in worse shape than Pog in Lombardia.

But the real difference is just that the finale in Liege is less flat and has longer and steeper climbs than Amstel.

 

[Berniece]

But the real difference is just that the finale in Liege is less flat and has longer and steeper climbs than Amstel.

In normal cases I would agree this favours Pogacar, but is this still the case if he's not feeling as good? I would think most people find Pogacar to be better in any possible combination of steepness and climb length compared to Evenepoel. But Evenepoel took back 15s on the Cauberg on Sunday. So I'm wondering if Evenepoel might be better at the moment, and Pogacar is still more explosive, but if it's made hard enough it won't matter anymore. I don't see Pogacar leading with 10s after he attacked if Evenepoel was in his wheel.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Who will win LBL 2025! Thx in advance🙏🏻

You know you could make that yourself?

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

There are imho only 2 scenarios:
Pog drops everybody and goes for another solo win.
Pog can't drop everybody, is imho undroppable, so he or any other rider with him wins from a sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

In normal cases I would agree this favours Pogacar, but is this still the case if he's not feeling as good? I would think most people find Pogacar to be better in any possible combination of steepness and climb length compared to Evenepoel. But Evenepoel took back 15s on the Cauberg on Sunday. So I'm wondering if Evenepoel might be better at the moment, and Pogacar is still more explosive, but if it's made hard enough it won't matter anymore. I don't see Pogacar leading with 10s after he attacked if Evenepoel was in his wheel.

I don't think we should put too much focus on climbs where one riders has clearly spent more energy than another before that. The terrain before matters as well, Pogacar isn't gonna put the same gap into Evenepoel if they both do 15km solo into a headwind before the Cauberg.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

You know you could make that yourself?

No I did not!

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

No I did not!

From the index page of the Professional Road Race subforum, type a title for the thread, give a quick intro under the discussion tab, populate the list with options on the poll tab (remember to set a closing time before the race finishes and to offer a Vino/others option), click the big orange 'Post Thread' button.

 

[houtdffan]

There are imho only 2 scenarios:
Pog drops everybody and goes for another solo win.
Pog can't drop everybody, is imho undroppable, so he or any other rider with him wins from a sprint.

more likely, a 3rd Remco solo win

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

more likely, a 3rd Remco solo win

That would imply he drops Pog. I just don't see that happening (yet?). He may surprise me though.

 

[Cookster15]

But Evenepoel took back 15s on the Cauberg on Sunday. So I'm wondering if Evenepoel might be better at the moment

I think Pogacar was simply tired after PR. That won’t be the case at LBL. People always underestimate how difficult PR is. Sure it’s flat but there is no rest like you get with descents and particularly how it was raced this year with the rivalry between MVDP and Pog. Then also he had to chase solo after crashing.

 

[Berniece]

I think Pogacar was simply tired after PR. That won’t be the case at LBL. People always underestimate how difficult PR is. Sure it’s flat but there is no rest like you get with descents and particularly how it was raced this year with the rivalry between MVDP and Pog. Then also he had to chase solo after crashing.

I think he's tired after a long and very intensive spring season. Not only PR, because WVA never mentioned still being tired and he even rode BP. So I don't expect him to be at his best again in Liege, but tomorrow might be an indicator if the race is made hard.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I like Pog, but a win at Fleche would be a huge step forward in Nys' career.

 

[RedheadDane]

I like Pog, but a win at Fleche would be a huge step forward in Nys' career.

And a win in LBL would be an even bigger step.

 

[Didinho]

Pogi will still be hard to beat here. But hoping for a close battle.

 

[Cycling111]

Evenepoel was simply in worse shape than Pog in Lombardia.

But the real difference is just that the finale in Liege is less flat and has longer and steeper climbs than Amstel.

But the gap between him and Remco after the climb in Lombardia was much greater than at Amstel

I mean, they didn't drope him in one of his worst days. In Lombardia, he put three minutes into the final km, much of it on flat and hilly terrain.

Pogacar is underrated in this terrain.
It's very difficult to drope f Pogacar. He'll have to be even more fatigued than he was at Amstel.
If he's fit, we already saw in Lombardia that he put more time on a flatter section.
Pogacar had less than a minute on the Lombardia climb and won by three minutes.

 

[Red Rick]

But the gap between him and Remco after the climb in Lombardia was much greater than at Amstel

I mean, they didn't drope him in one of his worst days. In Lombardia, he put three minutes into the final km, much of it on flat and hilly terrain.

Pogacar is underrated in this terrain.
It's very difficult to drope f Pogacar. He'll have to be even more fatigued than he was at Amstel.
If he's fit, we already saw in Lombardia that he put in more time on a flatter section.
Pogacar had less than a minute on the Lombardia climb and won by three minutes.

Pretty sure that's the difference between 1 rider being not fried on the Sormano and the rest being in fact fried on Sormano.

It's basically comparing apples with Wiener Schnitzels.

 

[Medvind]

I have a hard time believing Pog will be as sharp as last after a tough spring campaign. Can only see him attacking hard on La Redoute if he senses a weakness in Remco. Will he want to make a first selection on La Redoute? Bit risky if more than him and Remco gets away because then Remco will probably attack. If he feels the shape isn't stellar he might just wait for an all-out attack on Roche-aux-Faucons, a climb that suits Pog better than Remco.

 

[topcat]

So we're predicting what will happen in Liege before we see what happens in Fleche?
I'll have a crack off it.
Remco will attack on La Redoute, the Pog will follow but be too fried to attack on RAF. Who wins? One of them.

 

[Andre]

We have not seen the last of Mathias IthinkIwon yet.

 

[Andre]

It's not gonna snow, right?

No. Maybe rain

 

[Cycling111]

So we're predicting what will happen in Liege before we see what happens in Fleche?
I'll have a crack off it.
Remco will attack on La Redoute, the Pog will follow but be too fried to attack on RAF. Who wins? One of them.

FW and Liège are two completely different races. Most of the time, the winner is different.

 

[RedheadDane]

No. Maybe rain

Dammit! You're fast... I deleted my post after realising that this is the LBL thread, not the FW thread.
Mattias didn't become an icicle in LBL.

 

[Blanco]

FW and Liège are two completely different races. Most of the time, the winner is different.

We had 5 doubles in the last 20 years, it's not that rare.

 

[Panda Claws]

Is Vinge riding? I have a feeling he'd win this year if he did.