Liège - Bastogne - Liège 2026, one-day monument, 26th April

[Red Rick]

Sure but what should he have actually done these past months to impress you?

There is a difference between not being impressive and not winning.

 

[Jan the Man]

1999 is my favourite that I can remember watching (for context i started watching crica 1995/1996).

1980 probably the most iconic

 

[tobydawq]

There is a difference between not being impressive and not winning.

There is also a difference between not believing someone will win and risk trillions of euros on it not happening.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Seixas winning is certainly a possibility. There can always be bad luck, no matter how strong Pogacar is.
Seixas winning outright against Pogacar would be a shocker though.

I don't think Remco can drop him, and then he can be attacked by the Messiah on the descends.

 

[Red Rick]

There is also a difference between not believing someone will win and risk trillions of euros on it not happening.

Hyperboles are a thing, plus I can just declare bankruptcy

 

[Red Rick]

He's dropped every time it gets a bit hard in Tour of the Alps. While 20-30 other riders are still there. How is he going to fare against a much better peloton? It's not like he is being dropped on long climbs, also just shorter, punchier ones. I don't think he finishes in top 25.

He missed 11 days of riding, but shouldnt be injured now, so I would hope it is a case of getting the engine going again. I doubt detraining goes that fast in an athlete in great form

 

[Berniece]

He missed 11 days of riding, but shouldnt be injured now, so I would hope it is a case of getting the engine going again. I doubt detraining goes that fast in an athlete in great form

He crashed hard though, and at this level. Might take a serious toll on your body and performance

 

[Ilmaestro99]

5* - eulalio
4* - scaroni, izagirre
3* - romeo, champussin, zambanini, schmidt, vansevenent
2* - pinarello, foldager, Germans, van etbelt, vauquelin
1* - sainbayer, otruba, costioux, evenepoel, sexass,

Zambanini is not racing. Alessandro pinarello moves up to 3 stars. Ewn costioux moves up to 2 stars, and nicolos prodhome is added as a 1 star favourite.

 

[Breh]

Zambanini is not racing. Alessandro pinarello moves up to 3 stars. Ewn costioux moves up to 2 stars, and nicolos prodhome is added as a 1 star favourite.

Aranburu not racing??

 

[topcat]

What's the take on Pidcock? That he could finish 4th if he was in perfect shape which he's not? I would take Ciccone over him.

 

[canina82]

Seixas has more w/kg than Remco and his potential is higher for sure. Easy to understand these odds.

 

[Berniece]

Seixas has more w/kg than Remco and his potentual is higher for sure. Easy to understand these odds.

Seixas has raced 13 times against Evenepoel. He lost 11 of those. And those two he won were flat stages in Dauphine. He never even show he is capable of racing well after 250km's.

These odds are based on French hype that put money on Seixas.

 

[YavorD]

Seixas has raced 13 times against Evenepoel. He lost 11 of those. And those two he won were flat stages in Dauphine. He never even show he is capable of racing well after 250km's.

These odds are based on French hype that put money on Seixas.

A bit like Evenepoel was considered favourite for the Giro (2020) without ever showing anything in 3 weeks races?
Was Evenepoel overhyped because he is Belgian

The odds are justified by his performance. For all we know, Evenepoel has no chance of following Pogacar. The way Seixas progresses, he could do that eventually.

 

[Berniece]

A bit like Evenepoel was considered favourite for the Giro (2020) without ever showing anything in 3 weeks races?
Was Evenepoel overhyped because he is Belgian

The odds are justified by his performance. For all we know, Evenepoel has no chance of following Pogacar. The way Seixas progresses, he could do that eventually.

Yeah, exactly like that. Even more so because 3 weeks is much harder than 1 stage of 250km's.

Your second part doesn't make any sense. The odds for a race this Sunday don't include what might happen in 2 years.

 

[YavorD]

Yeah, exactly like that. Even more so because 3 weeks is much harder than 1 stage of 250km's.

Your second part doesn't make any sense. The odds for a race this Sunday don't include what might happen in 2 years.

But I don't think it is impossible for Seixas to actually follow.
Yes, he hasn't shown anything like this, but he progresses non stop.

 

[Berniece]

But I don't think it is impossible for Seixas to actually follow.
Yes, he hasn't shown anything like this, but he progresses non stop.

I just think the odds of him doing better than Evenepoel are worse. I don't mind being wrong, we'll see this Sunday.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He crashed hard though, and at this level. Might take a serious toll on your body and performance

Tour of the Alps could be hard miles he needs right now. He could reach a mini-peak in LBL (likely not his best though).

 

[Berniece]

Tour of the Alps could be hard miles he needs right now. He could reach a mini-peak in LBL (likely not his best though).

All day in the attack, and actually looked good. Was then being dropped by the peloton but sprinted his way back to the back. I have no clue what his form is now

 

[Krzysztof_O]

All day in the attack, and actually looked good. Was then being dropped by the peloton but sprinted his way back to the back. I have no clue what his form is now

Maybe those are planned training sessions. He goes as hard as he needs and lets it go sometimes.

 

[peterfin]

Seixas has more w/kg than Remco and his potential is higher for sure. Easy to understand these odds.

It's not just about w/kg in this race. If it was, Vingegaard not racing is a crime.

 

[Unchained]

Seixas has more w/kg than Remco and his potential is higher for sure. Easy to understand these odds.

At 260k, Seixas doesn't have volume or many tests at similar distances. He has done a few longer races and done well. He is definitely in the deficit on race experience and tactics compared to most of the favorites. Because of his age he is likely to get pushed harder( take the bait) and make mistakes that other veterans won't make. Seixas is a super talent with almost no experience.

 

[vappa]

At 260k, Seixas doesn't have volume or many tests at similar distances. He has done a few longer races and done well. He is definitely in the deficit on race experience and tactics compared to most of the favorites. Because of his age he is likely to get pushed harder( take the bait) and make mistakes that other veterans won't make. Seixas is a super talent with almost no experience.

His team is also extremely inexperienced in LBL and could struggle with positioning in crucial moments

 

[Pippo_San]

Evenepoel has 0% chance to win this bike race.

 

[Unchained]

His team is also extremely inexperienced in LBL and could struggle with positioning in crucial moments

That is what makes him so amazing to watch! His teenage tenacity has him able to overcome many things and his physical talent allows him to make selection in lots of races. Other riders make bonehead moves and can't correct. It's a little deep for him at 260 but he raced well at Lombardi and Worlds..before 2024 he did races mostly half of 260..other websites have Remco saying ( stupidly) that Paul will likely suffer in last hour of the race because of volume, Seixas seems like he is motivated by people telling him he can't do something. On paper he has some obvious weaknesses but the race isn't on paper.

 

[vappa]

That is what makes him so amazing to watch! His teenage tenacity has him able to overcome many things and his physical talent allows him to make selection in lots of races. Other riders make bonehead moves and can't correct. It's a little deep for him at 260 but he raced well at Lombardi and Worlds..before 2024 he did races mostly half of 260..other websites have Remco saying ( stupidly) that Paul will likely suffer in last hour of the race because of volume, Seixas seems like he is motivated by people telling him he can't do something. On paper he has some obvious weaknesses but the race isn't on paper.

Motivation doesn't give you extra watts if you're cooked. We shall see on Sunday if he struggles in the final or not