Liège - Bastogne - Liège 2026, one-day monument, 26th April

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Who will win?


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    110
  • Poll closed .
Apr 16, 2009
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According to odds:

Pogacar: 1.35 (monster favorite, as always)

Seixas: 3.75 (2nd favorite)

Evenepoel: 7 (3rd favorite)

Skjelmose: 25
Ciccone: 35 (outsiders)
Pidcock: 50
There is money to be made!!!!
Seixas looks better than Remco now, however, He is an unknown commodity for this race.
 
Nov 16, 2013
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...but in fact he has a 50% chance, cause he'll either win it or not...
That's not correct. You could say that for all participants in a race. And if there are 150 riders in a race, then the sum percentage of a rider to win would be 7500%, ergo above 100%, ergo impossible.

QED
 
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Sep 26, 2020
26,911
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It appears Uno-X have also voted for a black makeover this week, but it won't be complete unless Cort also dyes his moustache. It's certainly different from last year's 7-Eleven homage, but I wouldn't wear it.

673880045_18416944177134475_4554087676433250299_n.jpg
 
Oct 5, 2009
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Not aware whether this has been discussed, but just studied the route for this edition more closely.

If the gps data I've obtained are correct, they'll have a new approach on Roche-aux-Faucons, not the usual way over river Ourthe and directly forward under the railway bridge and up the residental area - but on the contrary this year via sharp left just as they leave the river bridge approaching Hony from the backside, along quite narrow road between Ourthe and railway for some +1k, before sharp right and hairy corners over a railway bridge and then entering new +300m pretty steep ramp, meeting the old route on the right side, joining old route where where 'the real climb' with toughest section started.

Making the total length with the hardest gradients longer, thus presumably more decisive margin at the summit before the subsequent +2k uphill to Boncelles.

In any case, it's a new approach animating for tactics rethoughts.
Good spot for Seixas to drop Remco.
And if Seixas gets going, it's a good place for Pogi to park Seixas.
And then the following section becomes less exciting.

Data I've obtained is from cyclingstage.com
I don't know whether it's an error in route mapping or if this is already known stuff.
Or if it's only known in nerdy bike forum circles and not by the DS's and only a few, random riders.
I hope for the latter option :)
(And I don't even want to think about the third and perhaps most likely option that it has already been decided long before Faucons)
 
Last edited:
May 17, 2013
7,598
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It appears Uno-X have also voted for a black makeover this week, but it won't be complete unless Cort also dyes his moustache. It's certainly different from last year's 7-Eleven homage, but I wouldn't wear it.

673880045_18416944177134475_4554087676433250299_n.jpg
Ninja alert! Haimar comes out of retirement...
 
May 27, 2022
1,473
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10,180
Not aware whether this has been discussed, but just studied the route for this edition more closely.

If the gps data I've obtained are correct, they'll have a new approach on Roche-aux-Faucons, not the usual way over river Ourthe and directly forward under the railway bridge and up the residental area - but on the contrary this year via sharp left just as they leave the river bridge approaching Hony from the backside, along quite narrow road between Ourthe and railway for some +1k, before sharp right and hairy corners over a railway bridge and then entering new +300m pretty steep ramp, meeting the old route on the right side, joining old route where where 'the real climb' with toughest section started.

Making the total length with the hardest gradients longer, thus presumably more decisive margin at the summit before the subsequent +2k uphill to Boncelles.

In any case, it's a new approach animating for tactics rethoughts.
Good spot for Seixas to drop Remco.
And if Seixas gets going, it's a good place for Pogi to park Seixas.
And then the following section becomes less exciting.

Data I've obtained is from cyclingstage.com
I don't know whether it's an error in route mapping or if this is already known stuff.
Or if it's only known in nerdy bike forum circles and not by the DS's and only a few, random riders.
I hope for the latter option :)
(And I don't even want to think about the third and perhaps most likely option that it has already been decided long before Faucons)
I think that's the way they used to approach it when they first included the climb, from 2008 - 2012.
 
Apr 30, 2011
49,281
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Not aware whether this has been discussed, but just studied the route for this edition more closely.

If the gps data I've obtained are correct, they'll have a new approach on Roche-aux-Faucons, not the usual way over river Ourthe and directly forward under the railway bridge and up the residental area - but on the contrary this year via sharp left just as they leave the river bridge approaching Hony from the backside, along quite narrow road between Ourthe and railway for some +1k, before sharp right and hairy corners over a railway bridge and then entering new +300m pretty steep ramp, meeting the old route on the right side, joining old route where where 'the real climb' with toughest section started.
thats the standard approach

 
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Oct 5, 2009
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thats the standard approach

Which standard?
Not the standard for the past decade, digging under the railway bridge up residental area before right turner to the steepest section to the summit.
Your link plots the new approach of which I described, taking a sharp left turn just leaving the river bridge, heading for backside of Hony with ramp steeper than through residental area on the front side. And I'm absolutely positive rider's have been using front side redidental area during recent years when identifying riders positions for those editions.
I think @ashhutch1997 might be right that during inagural years of Faucons introduction they used all-steep-climb from the gun like this year's route.
 
Mar 12, 2009
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It appears Uno-X have also voted for a black makeover this week, but it won't be complete unless Cort also dyes his moustache. It's certainly different from last year's 7-Eleven homage, but I wouldn't wear it.

673880045_18416944177134475_4554087676433250299_n.jpg
What's the purpose of this? Are they not allowed to race in their normal colors in Liege or if it's just a stunt then why in Liege specifically?
 
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Oct 5, 2009
1,804
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It appears Uno-X have also voted for a black makeover this week, but it won't be complete unless Cort also dyes his moustache. It's certainly different from last year's 7-Eleven homage, but I wouldn't wear it.

673880045_18416944177134475_4554087676433250299_n.jpg
The message must have flown over my head.
What's the reference?
Funeral mood?
 
Aug 12, 2012
7,118
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I dont forget Pogacar is the favourite, and he will be almost sure the stronger in the hardest climbs. He should understand , as he has won 3 times, if someone is with him has the right of no collaborate if he think that doing that improve his chances, becouse fonsider better to stay with people Who come behind or just collaborate a little, to be polite and sportive.
He will be the stronger in the climbs, but the race is not just climb.
I am not sure they have a plan B or C studied if the plan A fail.
Maybe he is the best clearly for this kind of races. At Flandes climbs are shorter,and the difference with Remco was no really big, but important. And for the cobblestones, Pogacar isnjust 3 kilos heavier than Remco.

But those 3 kilos counts, and Remco make a mistake at Flanders. He was always well positioned, close to the front, close to Pogacar, but at the moment of the decisive point, second pass for Kwaremont, he was a little bit behind, sorrounder buly other riders, so he couldnt counter attack at the moment as Van Aert did, and 2 meterse, made him go alone at the flat part of the Kwaremont. He was roo tired for paterberg. Just with 2 second less he lost at Paterberg, I think he would have caught Pogacar and MVDP in the Next 2 km. He would have drop again at Kapelmuur, but maybe all the race would have changed.
If Remco has improved a little from Flanders, and he play well his options he has his chances IMO, but he must act as Pogacar is the favourite, and of course start very well positioned at la Redoute, and be attentive for any possible attack precious ro la Redoute using quicky the team or counter attacking at the moment
 
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Apr 7, 2026
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I dont forget Pogacar is the favourite, and he will be almost sure the stronger in the hardest climbs. He should understand , as he has won 3 times, if someone is with him has the right of no collaborate if he think that doing that improve his chances, becouse fonsider better to stay with people Who come behind or just collaborate a little, to be polite and sportive.
He will be the stronger in the climbs, but the race is not just climb.
I am not sure they have a plan B or C studied if the plan A fail.
Maybe he is the best clearly for this kind of races. At Flandes climbs are shorter,and the difference with Remco was no really big, but important. And for the cobblestones, Pogacar isnjust 3 kilos heavier than Remco.

But those 3 kilos counts, and Remco make a mistake at Flanders. He was always well positioned, close to the front, close to Pogacar, but at the moment of the decisive point, second pass for Kwaremont, he was a little bit behind, sorrounder buly other riders, so he couldnt counter attack at the moment as Van Aert did, and 2 meterse, made him go alone at the flat part of the Kwaremont. He was roo tired for paterberg. Just with 2 second less he lost at Paterberg, I think he would have caught Pogacar and MVDP in the Next 2 km. He would have drop again at Kapelmuur, but maybe all the race would have changed.
If Remco has improved a little from Flanders, and he play well his options he has his chances IMO, but he must act as Pogacar is the favourite, and of course start very well positioned at la Redoute, and be attentive for any possible attack precious ro la Redoute using quicky the team or counter attacking at the moment

I've spoken with people who were at Kwaremont, and they all agree that the difference between Pogacar and Remco was noticeable. Pogacar was far superior to Remco there; it's not just about seconds . Those who saw them climb that section say so. And if you watch at YouTube videos that people have uploaded, you can see it, although it's even more apparent in person.

That said, every race is different. This is another race, and the form is different. Flanders is another race with different protagonists: VDP, Van Aert, Pedersen... and Pogacar there, for now, is more superior to Remco than some people think.
They also tell that Van der Poel's climb at Kwaremont conveyed a force that Remco didn't. VDP wouldn't have a chance to win Liège.

Forget Flanders. It's a different race.
 
May 27, 2022
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Also, why don't they go all the way to to the top of La Redute anymore, from 2023 onwards they've taken a right hand turn before the false flat to the top.
The final sector where Remco Evenepoel attacked in 2022 hasn't been in the race since.
 
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