Liège - Bastogne - Liège 2026, one-day monument, 26th April

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Who will win?


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Kudos to Pogacar for his 4th LBL title and third in succession. Mostly thanks to Paul Seixas that was great. He was never going to beat Pogi but we saw another aspect of the 19 year old we hadn't seen before - how he copes when truly suffering by being forced to react to multiple massive uphill attacks. Pogacar really put Seixas through the wringer. But he didn't crack and fought on. Huge kudos. I suppose the distance of the race finally was too much.

I am beginning to imagine some big tussles in the Tour de France between these two. French excitement will still be rising. I also cannot agree with the apparently wishful thinking by some that he has peaked early. People were saying in 2021 that Pogacar peaked early. Nobody knows, not even Seixas or his team.
 
Sep 4, 2017
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Chapeau to Remco for rolling the dice, then salvaging the same place he would have gotten anyway
Did he really roll the dice that much though? The big gambit would have been to try and force a smaller group of 5-10 riders for strong cooperation while they still had around a minute and a half advantage.
 
May 17, 2013
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Tadej Pogacar is head and shoulders above the rest, congratulations to him. Geez, five race days in '26, 1,1,1.2,1. And thank you Paul Seixas for giving it all and bring a little suspense to this bike race.

Although the time gap between Teddy and Paulo is about the same as it was at Strade Bianche, I see progress for Seixas: he resisted much longer this time and he showed once and for all that he's not afraid of the boogeyman.

Remco? I don't know. It felt that when Teddy attacked, he gave up...limited, or is he feeling an inferiority complex? It must be hard to line up against a guy who kicks your butt time and time gain. One more reason not to send Seixas to the Tour: if you get whacked ten times in 21 days, you can get used to it...defeats leave scars...

Very good race, Romain Gregoire gets another high placing...Vive la France!
 
Sep 2, 2011
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Another amazing show by Tadej.
It almost looked effortless today, very different from Paris Roubaix.

But Sixpack is another beast. I can now get on his bandwagon. He's super amazing, insane wattage, insane engine, insane to think he's 19.
Sure he's so young everything can happen against him (also it must be seen if he's gonna keep his head focused the next years). But physically? Monster.

Can't wait to see the Next Gen duels against Widar and Finn, and of course Del Toro and Giulio.
 
Apr 8, 2023
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He might have won but it cost him (or the team to be more exact) 5,000 Swiss Francs -
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...large-fine-after-podium-award-ceremony-mishap
Whilst the podium celebrations seemingly proceeded as normal, the race commissaires have fined the World Champion with a massive fine of 5000CHF. The race jury report had the following: "Incorrect placement of publicity on the world champion jersey during the award ceremony". It is not fully certain at first glance where the issue was exactly, however the personnel on site would've had noticed the issue and have taken action.
 
Jul 10, 2012
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Did he really roll the dice that much though? The big gambit would have been to try and force a smaller group of 5-10 riders for strong cooperation while they still had around a minute and a half advantage.
Well tbh I didn't really watch that early and the reports I read were a bit scant on details so I just assumed he spent some energy in the hope of getting over the redoute first.

I will say that it seems pretty hard to get anyone to cooperate with you if you're Remco, yet still not being able to actually win a big one. Even Pog got folks to cooperate with him at every monument this year, somehow.
 
Jun 19, 2009
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Kudos to Pogacar for his 4th LBL title and third in succession. Mostly thanks to Paul Seixas that was great. He was never going to beat Pogi but we saw another aspect of the 19 year old we hadn't seen before - how he copes when truly suffering by being forced to react to multiple massive uphill attacks. Pogacar really put Seixas through the wringer. But he didn't crack and fought on. Huge kudos. I suppose the distance of the race finally was too much.

I am beginning to imagine some big tussles in the Tour de France between these two. French excitement will still be rising. I also cannot agree with the apparently wishful thinking by some that he has peaked early. People were saying in 2021 that Pogacar peaked early. Nobody knows, not even Seixas or his team.
I think Seixas was Pogi's suffering helper but he proved and enduring talent. Watching a fuller view of the race it was business as usual. Tadej isolated his greatest threat and turned that rider into an ally up to the moment of terminal consequence. Paul showed that his talented, strong and tactically gifted but that got him 2nd step on the podium. He's going to be great but 3 weeks of following Tadej's chamois is going to net the 1 minute gap per each stage. He'll Pogacar into that 4 minute GC lead that let's him cherry-pick the stages he wants to win. My guess, if he doesn't fold under French media pressure is he could be the next Tadej. He also has a handful of 18 to 20 year old phenoms trying to do the same thing.
He can learn from how Tadej used him today to do the same to the major competition in the future and not pout and b*tch like other pressured wannabes.
 
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Feb 20, 2012
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One more climb that fits the 3'30 criterion is actually the one in Montreal, where Pogacar did 8.5 for 3'26, where the gaps are in the range of ~20s (so where Skjelmose is), but Montreal is slightly pre Worlds peak, and it's an easier climb which slightly limits gaps in turn.
 
Aug 12, 2012
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It was a super race yesterday. Congrats to Pogacar and Seixas for his great race.
About Remco i did my analysis at his thread. I have now my answer and is quite disssapointing
Seixas make the best race he can. It was quite clear he couldnt hold at la Roche, and more if he collaborates that way Pogacar, but he was able to hold Redoute and that is amazing. I didnt rule out that possibility, but It was difficult. It was amazing the time they put at the rest, even Skeljmose, but to the rest It was as if junior races with pros.
Muy only doubts is that Seixas is givi g everything avery race. It a great rider, humble, clever, realístic ambitious...with respect by no fear to Pogacar. With a great actitudes..but It is not usual to jave a 19 yesrs all promisin Rider giving It al at the best races.. He could pay that in the future. I hope no.
Pogacar could have a super palmarés, but if Next year a 20 year ls old rider is better than him would be difficult to say he is the goat. We Will see but when Seixas get a little bit better we Will have very good races.
 
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Jul 16, 2015
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Papa Horner isn't too nice in his analysis. Basically everyone (except the winner) was a knucklehead yesterday, which confirms Teddy is the most intelligent rider in the peleton:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y54ICZYsKts

Horner's professed tactical acumen has been left in the dust by the speed of the modern peloton. Who has time for tactics when they're all on the limit going full gas from km0? His era was different. This is 2026: it's attrition out there and there's absolutely nothing anyone can do tactically to counter Pog and UAE. Nothing. The only reason WvA won Roubaix was because he was better on the day. That's it. It's all in the legs and yesterday on his preferred terrain Pog was a terminator.
 
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Feb 7, 2026
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Horner's professed tactical acumen has been left in the dust by the speed of the modern peloton. Who has time for tactics when they're all on the limit going full gas from km0? His era was different. This is 2026: it's attrition out there and there's absolutely nothing anyone can do tactically to counter Pog and UAE. Nothing. The only reason WvA won Roubaix was because he was better on the day. That's it. It's all in the legs and yesterday on his preferred terrain Pog was a terminator.
Horner is good with some aspects of tactics, but in the end 99% of his advice comes down to saving energy like all the ex-riders from the 2000s and 2010s keep preaching.

Saving energy is still important (but not to such an extent), but calling someone a knucklehead for trying something is ridiculous. Remco Evenepoel has an incredible diesel engine (in terms of pure endurance he is on the same level as Pogacar), but he does not have the top-end. I don't agree with calling him out for wasting energy in the break. He was still the freshest rider in his group at the finish despite his efforts.


On the contrary, if he really wanted to win he should have attacked on Haussire with 130 k to go after Denz dropped. This would probably have failed in the end, but maybe UAE would have panicked and blown their team and then it would have been an 80k pursuit of Evenepoel (and maybe Bernal) 2 minutes ahead vs. Pogacar and Seixas. Evidently, Evenepoel was not on a good day and would have failed, but it was his only chance.
 
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Apr 30, 2011
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situation before the attack on redoute

pkACPuA.jpeg


skjelmose had ridden past eulalio and tulett 20 seconds before this screenshot to sit on the wheel of seixas

had he stayed with cicco , i think they and scaroni would have formed a trio at the top

thj and zana were the strongest on redoute in the chase
 
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Jul 20, 2017
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Horner just repeating what was posted on the forum the other day, that there's no need for tactics when you have brute force.
Tactics are for weaklings, not for Champions. /s.
Jokes asides, I think those guys do NOT want to win if they weren't the strongest. The only ones not thinking like this are Vingegaard, new WVA, and old Roglic.

I'm pretty sure VDP prefers to lose than to win by playing with Pogacar.
 
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Jul 10, 2009
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We mock Evenepoel, but he was right that Seixas' engine drops in the last bit of long races. As can be expected, he's 19 and this is the third time he's raced this distance
I just do not understand this kind of sentiment at all regarding Seixas; if he had struggled on La Redoute or something I could see it but he fought the best rider in the world to almost the bitter end of 260k as a 19 year old. I don't see that as his 'engine dropping', he was just up against someone a little better. I think there is a difference.
 
Jul 7, 2013
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Horner's professed tactical acumen has been left in the dust by the speed of the modern peloton. Who has time for tactics when they're all on the limit going full gas from km0? His era was different. This is 2026: it's attrition out there and there's absolutely nothing anyone can do tactically to counter Pog and UAE. Nothing. The only reason WvA won Roubaix was because he was better on the day. That's it. It's all in the legs and yesterday on his preferred terrain Pog was a terminator.

Horner's most important take was that Seixas, all his teammates and Decathlon DS were knuckleheads because Paul worked with Pogi after Redoute (instead of just sticking to his wheel and trying to save energy) and Decathlon was helping UAE with the chase.
 
Jul 16, 2015
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Horner's most important take was that Seixas, all his teammates and Decathlon DS were knuckleheads because Paul worked with Pogi after Redoute (instead of just sticking to his wheel and trying to save energy) and Decathlon was helping UAE with the chase.

I think (just my opinion) Seixas raced to secure second. That's the gist of it when I saw him working with Pog a bit. He wanted to dissuade Pog from dropping him too early so he could have a bigger buffer versus the chasing pack.

And considering Seixas' age and where he was, it's totally understandable.
 
Jul 7, 2013
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I think (just my opinion) Seixas raced to secure second. That's the gist of it when I saw him working with Pog a bit. He wanted to dissuade Pog from dropping him too early so he could have a bigger buffer versus the chasing pack.

And considering Seixas' age and where he was, it's totally understandable.

It's also understandable in the sense that he's working on his reputation right now: being perceived as a non-cooperative rider could hurt him in some races in the future. Without working he would have had more energy left for Faucons but it still seems doubtful he would be able to survive all Pog's accelerations. But who knows?
 
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