Maillot à Pois Rouges: Who will take it?

[The Hitch]

Cunego was very good in his last tdf and very aggressive in his last giro. An outside possibility.

 

[taiwan]

Too many GC guys in the poll.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Mikkel Condé v2.0‏@mrconde11m
Euskaltel DS Igor Galdeano: "We aim for the White Jersey with Ion Izagirre and for the KOM Jersey with Antón & Nieve" (via @biciciclismoweb)

Very refreshing call out instead of all the placement stuff. Chapeau.

 

[Bumeington]

That'd just be selfish and greedy of froome. He's going for yellow not polka dots. The only reason why froome would go for it would be if contador pulled off another verbier on ventoux or the alpe, and froome had no chance of getting yellow because of that (but i see that happening as unlikely). If he has the yellow jersey what does he need to take the polka dot jersey for?? It's not like he's eddie mercx and has the ability to take all the jerseys by riding away on the first mountain. Sky does all the work for him until the final km, so no chance.

I'm not so sure a serious top 5 gc rider will get the jersey. usually someone who's at the lower reaches of the top 10 or in top 15 gets it. That's been the case for a number of years apart from 2008. Sky wouldn't allow a serious gc threat to get in a break on a mountain stage (which is usually essential for the polka dot jersey). hoogerland isn't a great climber in the mountains so i doubt he could keep the jersey through all the mountains

Voeckler won't have the chance to go for it or anyone from europecar this year. They've said that they're working for Rolland. Which means they won't have many opportunities to make breaks unless Rolland crashes out.
I see someone like dan martin andy schleck getting it, as he's a great climber with an explosive acceleration. Quintana or pinot are possible if he were able to beat the other gc favourites at KOM's (like kohl in 2008) or be given more freedom by sky.

The classification is quite weighted towards GC contenders. If Froome wins on Ventoux and Alpe d'Huez (certainly possible) that's already a 100 points. (Edit: Voeckler won last year with 135, and I think the points system is the same this year) If he's winning all the MTFs not taken by the break he could well win by accident as it were.

Obviously I'd prefer it if he didn't win every MTF but has he been beaten in one so far this year?

 

[all_in]

Mikkel Condé v2.0‏@mrconde11m
Euskaltel DS Igor Galdeano: "We aim for the White Jersey with Ion Izagirre and for the KOM Jersey with Antón & Nieve" (via @biciciclismoweb)

This.If Anton or Nieve really want this jersey they are the favourites.Better climbers than Voeckler or Kessiakoff.Nieve is a very good breakaway rider(see Cotobello or Gardeccia).
Izagirre doesn't have a chance for White Jersey imo...

 

[fgrune]

I can see a Voeckler vs Kessiakoff battle again.

Ion Izagirre got what it takes to get into the mix as well.

Maybe Cam Meyer, if he tanks before the first rest day.

Cam mayer will be totally out of his depth in the Tour imo

 

[Linkinito]

A GC contender will surely have it. Remember that the four MTFs give double points, and 3 are HC. The Mont Ventoux Winner will pretty surely get the polka dot jersey as he'll get 50 points. Then if he tries to get placed in the big mountain stages in the Alps, he'll retain it until Paris.

Even if Chris Froome won two big MTF stages (Alpe and Semnoz for example), he'd have 100 points. If he has a good place in other stages he also could get the polka dot.

Here's the theoretical maximum amount of points for each stage, if someone passes every climb in first place (a la Voeckler 2012 in the Luchon stage):
Stage 1: 1 pt (1)
Stage 2: 11 pts (2 + 2 + 5 + 2)
Stage 3: 10 pts (1 + 2 + 2 + 5)
Stage 4: 0 pt
Stage 5: 5 pts (2 + 1 + 1 + 1)
Stage 6: 1 pt (1)
Stage 7: 10 pts (2 + 5 + 2 + 1)
Stage 8: 46 pts (1 + 25 + 20)
Stage 9: 45 pts (5 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 10)
Stage 10: 1 pt (1)
Stage 11: 0 pt
Stage 12: 0 pt
Stage 13: 1 pts (1)
Stage 14: 9 pts (1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1)
Stage 15: 55 pts (1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 50)
Stage 16: 12 pts (2 + 5 + 5)
Stage 17: 10 pts (5 + 5)
Stage 18: 92 pts (5 + 2 + 5 + 25 + 5 + 50)
Stage 19: 75 pts (25 + 25 + 5 + 10 + 10)
Stage 20: 71 pts (5 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 50)
Stage 21: 2 pts (1 + 1)
Maximum possible: 457 pts.

 

[Bavarianrider]

I agree it shouldn't be won by a GC rider who didn't even battle for it.
I really don't like the double points rule

 

[taiwan]

 

[Hugo87]

I'm rooting for Voeckler, it's a jersey that fits him perfectly for his atacking style and good climbing abilities.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Cam mayer will be totally out of his depth in the Tour imo

You might be right, but stranger things are happening.

 

[Afrank]

Mikkel Condé v2.0‏@mrconde11m
Euskaltel DS Igor Galdeano: "We aim for the White Jersey with Ion Izagirre and for the KOM Jersey with Antón & Nieve" (via @biciciclismoweb)

Glad to hear this, Anton and Nieve don't have a great chance of a high GC placing (except maybe 10th for Nieve ). They'll find much more success targeting stages and KOM.

 

[Warhawk]

Too many GC guys in the poll.

IMO the problem with projecting this right now is that there's so many fringe GC guys in the field, including a lot of young guys, that if maybe a couple of them have some bad luck early on or don't find their form early enough, they might just aim for mountain points because of how difficult it would be to climb back up the GC standings with that many adversaries.

 

[Lupetto]

Quintana wants a stage win and the jersey.

http://diarioadn.co/deportes/ciclismo/nairo-quintana-busca-ser-figura-en-el-tour-de-francia-1.65882

 

[barmaher]

So who is going to take this jersey now? Rolland will surely go for it, but Quintana and Froome may have more of a chance given their higher points totals and the fact they are much more likely to place highly in the finishes on Alpe and Sarenne (double points).

Any other riders have a chance?

Also, will points be awarded for the categorised climbs in the ITT? I assume yes, given that they are categorised.

 

[nobilis]

So who is going to take this jersey now? Rolland will surely go for it, but Quintana and Froome may have more of a chance given their higher points totals and the fact they are much more likely to place highly in the finishes on Alpe and Sarenne (double points).

Any other riders have a chance?

Also, will points be awarded for the categorised climbs in the ITT? I assume yes, given that they are categorised.

Nieve is in contention too. But the way things are going, Froome might well take it, without even targeting it.

Yeah in the TT the points from the 2 climbs are counted.

 

[Pippo_San]

I really hope Froomey takes it, just because Rolland is having the lamest Tour you can imagine, what a joke...

 

[wwabbit]

Yeah in the TT the points from the 2 climbs are counted.

That's interesting. How do they determine who to award the points to?

 

[spalco]

I wouldn't have said so two weeks ago, but now I think Froome takes it, since he's got to be the favourite to win the two MTFs and I think that will be enough.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

That's interesting. How do they determine who to award the points to?

Best time the two climbs.

Think split times if you like.

 

[search]

yeah, split times - so guys like Nieve or Rolland could go full out on one of those climbs to get the points

 

[Eyeballs Out]

yeah, split times - so guys like Nieve or Rolland could go full out on one of those climbs to get the points

Not nearly enough points on offer to make that viable. Nieve in particular would be much better advised just having another rest day

 

[search]

not for Nieve maybe, but Rolland already has a 32 points deficit, with Froome winning Alpe d'Huez or Annecy-Semnoz it would be 50 more, +maybe 10 from the timetrial - and Rolland doesn't seem to be in the shape he would need to expect to win a mountain finish himself.

 

[Afrank]

I find myself really hoping that Quintana can take it. He's without a doubt one of the worlds best climbers and especially this Tour has shown himself to be the 2nd best climber in the race. Not to mention the only one able to attack Sky. It would be very fitting for him to get the jersey for the best climber IMO.

Although I have a feeling that Froome will want to win all the remaining mtf's and will get the KOM by default.

 

[Jericho]

I find myself really hoping that Quintana can take it. He's without a doubt one of the worlds best climbers and especially this Tour has shown himself to be the 2nd best climber in the race. Not to mention the only one able to attack Sky. It would be very fitting for him to get the jersey for the best climber IMO.

Although I have a feeling that Froome will want to win all the remaining mtf's and will get the KOM by default.

Is there any place where Quintana can take points on Froome? He essentially would have to outclimb him as I don't see Quintana chasing breakaways like Rolland would (not would Sky allow him to break).

Nieve would seem more likely as he can chase breakaways and Rolland. But it still might not be enough to beat Froome.