Men's U23 races and talents

[Netserk]

I agree with Nordhagen (even tho I still think he's been pretty disappointing so far) and obviously definitely Seixas (if he has his level from the Dauphiné others don't stand a chance), but what is Torres based on? Just his performance from last year? That's already a long time ago.

It is indeed, but he said already in January that Avenir is his big goal for the year, so I expect him to find his best level.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I never said Johannessen is the benchmark. I think he would be outmatched against this field. That year Daan Hoole, weighing 5 tractors, finished 9th.

I think Michel Hessmann finishing in third just two minutes behind Uijtdebroeks in 2022 is a bigger dunk on the 2022 field than Hoole finishing in ninth almost 17 minutes down is on the 2021 field. The field depth was very bad in 2021, but THJ-Rodriguez-Zana was then and is now a pretty strong podium by Avenir standards.

 

[MLKarlos]

Is Finn flying a bit under the radar due to his crash? Or are the others simply better then him?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think Michel Hessmann finishing in third just two minutes behind Uijtdebroeks in 2022 is a bigger dunk on the 2022 field than Hoole finishing in ninth almost 17 minutes down is on the 2021 field. The field depth was very bad in 2021, but THJ-Rodriguez-Zana was then and is now a pretty strong podium by Avenir standards.

Not it's not. Lenny Martinez was 8th that Avenir, in case you forgot. Hesmann got into yellow in a non-mountain stage where he already took time on Uijtdebroeks. Then later Uijtdebroeks got a time penalty on top of that. Hesmann outclimbed Martinez, Lecerf, Grégoire... and at that time was still trying to be a GC rider with Visma.

Anyway, a year after winning Avenir, Johannessen couldn't drop Uijtdebroeks on Gaustatoppen, despite being 4 years older. And don't tell me he was in bad form that year, since he already finished top 10 in Catalunya and managed the same in Dauphiné.

The point was that Nordhagen didn't give me the impression at Tour de l'Ain of being close to the level needed to beat not just Seixas, but also Widar, Torres etc. Assuming none of them crash out of course.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Is Finn flying a bit under the radar due to his crash? Or are the others simply better then him?

Both imho.

 

[Onizuka999]

Tour Avenir Predictions

***** Seixas
**** Widar - Nordhagen - Torres - Omrzel - Finn
*** Pericas - Novak - Meehan - Thornley - Turconi - Ramirez - Basset - Marriage - Tuckwell - O'Brien
** Schrettl - Gualdi - Dalby - Frydtkjaer - JF Rodriguez - Decomble - Pau Marti - Eeman - Dockx - Florez
* Peace - Remkhi - Dunham - Fietzke - Schoofs - Lewandowski - Pattinson - Lima - Donze' - Garcia - Van Zanden - Ingebrigtsen - Macias - L'Hote

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Tour Avenir Predictions

***** Seixas
**** Widar - Nordhagen - Torres - Omrzel - Finn
*** Pericas - Novak - Meehan - Thornley - Turconi - Ramirez - Basset - Marriage - Tuckwell - O'Brien
** Schrettl - Gualdi - Dalby - Frydtkjaer - JF Rodriguez - Decomble - Pau Marti - Eeman - Dockx - Florez
* Peace - Remkhi - Dunham - Fietzke - Schoofs - Lewandowski - Pattinson - Lima - Donze' - Garcia - Van Zanden - Ingebrigtsen - Macias - L'Hote

We found Emil Axelgaard's burner account.

 

[RedheadDane]

Huh? I thought DCU had an internal rule not to bring WT riders to U23 races.


(Though, TBF, he's been a WT rider for less than a month.)

We found Emil Axelgaard's burner account.

Way too few names.

 

[Onizuka999]

Who is this Emil Axelgaard?

 

[Onizuka999]

Anyway if you want more names you can take a look to Giro NG predictions in this thread.

 

[RedheadDane]

Who is this Emil Axelgaard?

Danish cycling expert, whose 1 and 2 star rankings tend to look like this:

Mads Andersen, Matias Malmberg, Daniel Stampe, Marius Dahl, Danuel Carl-Frederik Bevort, William Blume, Ward Vanhoof, Alec Segaert, Dylan van Baarle, Axel van der Tuuk, Alessandro Tonelli, Julius Johansen, Jochem Kerckhaert, Noah Ramsay, Oskar Winkler, Martins Pluto, Daan van Sintmaartensdijk

Mind you, that's actually quite tame by his standards.
Also... Bevort is not called "Danuel".

 

[Brullnux]

Both imho.

Yeah he faded hard in the second half of the Giro, and also (importantly) he's like a year younger than everyone else with less stage race experience too. I think he's only ever ridden five days in a row three times, and more than that once.

 

[Potomac]

Tour Avenir Predictions

***** Seixas
**** Widar - Nordhagen - Torres - Omrzel - Finn
*** Pericas - Novak - Meehan - Thornley - Turconi - Ramirez - Basset - Marriage - Tuckwell - O'Brien
** Schrettl - Gualdi - Dalby - Frydtkjaer - JF Rodriguez - Decomble - Pau Marti - Eeman - Dockx - Florez
* Peace - Remkhi - Dunham - Fietzke - Schoofs - Lewandowski - Pattinson - Lima - Donze' - Garcia - Van Zanden - Ingebrigtsen - Macias - L'Hote

You've really helped narrow it down.

 

[ingsve]

Nordhagen was strong at the end (but only finished 4th).

Him finishing 4th was more to do with teams only being 5 riders so they couldn't control breakaways and that's where Tuckwell, Omrzel and Novak gained their advantage. Nordhagen would have won without those riders gaining that free time.

I think the main issue with Nordhagen is that he still seems to get ill a lot during the season which surely affects what shape he is in at competitions. You never know if you are seeing him at his max capacity or if he's been affected by recent illness.

 

[ingsve]

Obviously Nordhagen and especially Torres have been worse, but that says more about how bad this season has been for the 2005 generation of climbers. Unless their development kicks back up a notch (or two) next year, maybe we've just been looking at three early bloomers.

Perhaps Nordhagen is missing a lot of the skiing training he had in his junior years.

 

[elguapo]

Trade teams decide where their development riders race? I wonder why the Spanish Cycling Federation left Markel Beloki, Hector Alvarez and Benamin Noval were not selected for L'Avenir 2025.

 

[AlfaLum]

In the case of Noval that is quite easy to answer

 

[AlfaLum]

I think Torres should not be discounted. He did an insane amount of WT racing before the Abruzzo/Hungary combination.

He crashed very heavily in Hungary and has been aiming for Avenir ever since. Just recently returned from altitude camp with some of the other UAE hotshots.

I would put Seixas and Widar above him but all the others are lower in my list of favorites of Avenir.

 

[Squire]

Another problem for Nordhagen is that he has pretty much no team. Although the route is such that it might not be a huge issue.

 

[RedheadDane]

I wonder why the Spanish Cycling Federation left Markel Beloki, Hector Alvarez and Benamin Noval were not selected for L'Avenir 2025.

You know, I've been thinking that maybe 18-year-old 2nd year Juniors should be allowed to ride select U23 races.
Sending a 16-year-old to the biggest U23 stage race of the year might be a bit much...

 

[SafeBet]

Him finishing 4th was more to do with teams only being 5 riders so they couldn't control breakaways and that's where Tuckwell, Omrzel and Novak gained their advantage. Nordhagen would have won without those riders gaining that free time.

Well yes but both Widar and Finn crashed and they were the riders who looked better than him uphill in the first real mountain test.

 

[hayneplane]

Well yes but both Widar and Finn crashed and they were the riders who looked better than him uphill in the first real mountain test.

The way the race played out ended up throwing out more questions than answers about the relative pecking order of the current generation of under 23s.

 

[elguapo]

You've really helped narrow it down.

How they race the 2 HC/Cat 1 climbs and ITT stages would be critical. Previous races show that Seixas is more consistent in ITT than Widar. We could not discount though the improvement of Torres and Pericas of UAE as they often seen train with either Pogi or Ayuso or Almeida.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You know, I've been thinking that maybe 18-year-old 2nd year Juniors should be allowed to ride select U23 races.
Sending a 16-year-old to the biggest U23 stage race of the year might be a bit much...

This was denied by UCI when Evenepoel requested to ride with the u23 in 2018.

There are two Benamin Novals.
The other of 46.

 

[RedheadDane]

There are two Benamin Novals.
The other of 46.

I know that! I remember when the elder was racing.