Merckx picks Gilbert over Van den Broeck for good Tour finish

[El Pistolero]

I can definitely see Gilbert winning the Vuelta one day. Nowadays the Vuelta has a lot of uphill finishes, but it isn't really all that mountainous. It really does favor climbers who also have experience in one day classics.

If Gilbert loses some weight(after he has completed his classics goal of winning them all, probably never, but it's possible) then he can win the Vuelta for sure.

The Tour? He'll never win it(just because someone finishes fourth doesn't mean he was close to winning it), but I can see him place better than VdB2 if he will ever try it.

Hilly specialist or not, the Giro di Lombardia would be considered a mountain stage in any Grand Tour.

 

[Parrulo]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Hesjedal is not a Tour contender.

And the whole top-10-in-any-GT-let-alone-the-Tour fails to take a couple of things into account:

1) for a rider like Hesjedal, the Tour top 10 is more realistic for his capabilities than the Giro or Vuelta because of the terrain and types of climbs
2) the more cagey way the Tour is raced makes it easier for an interloper in the top 10 to defend that position, because fewer riders are willing to commit to a risky attack
3) Hesjedal was not bought as a threat by anybody and as a result people didn't work to isolate or drop him. Just ask Wiggins how easy it is to double up. History is littered with people who managed one GT top 10 but never made it back there.
4) Hesjedal had most of his team working on the front on the run-in to Pau to limit the breakaway's gains to protect his top 10 position from Horner and Plaza. In what other race would you see top riders kill themselves to protect a teammate's 10th place?

Hesjedal will never be a Tour contender. He may do the occasional good GC placing, but he's not going to threaten to win a GT any more than Marco Pinotti or Luís León Sánchez are.

i agree with this. even tho i like hedjal as a rider. i don't think he can contend for a GT. nor can gilbert

 

[theyoungest]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Hesjedal is not a Tour contender.

I only used him as the most recent example of a hilly rider making the magical transition toward GT riding. But anyway, to react on your comments about the guy:

And the whole top-10-in-any-GT-let-alone-the-Tour fails to take a couple of things into account:

1) for a rider like Hesjedal, the Tour top 10 is more realistic for his capabilities than the Giro or Vuelta because of the terrain and types of climbs

Top-10 at the Vuelta or Giro is certainly possible for Hesjedal. He's not the Wiggins type that can't handle any inclines in the double digits. Whether he can find the motivation to try getting a top-10 there is another thing.

2) the more cagey way the Tour is raced makes it easier for an interloper in the top 10 to defend that position, because fewer riders are willing to commit to a risky attack

As opposed to the Vuelta, where the top-10 is filled with people gaining time from early attacks? Not too many examples of that in recent years.

3) Hesjedal was not bought as a threat by anybody and as a result people didn't work to isolate or drop him. Just ask Wiggins how easy it is to double up. History is littered with people who managed one GT top 10 but never made it back there.

Which contender did they try to isolate and drop? At what point could they have done so to Hesjedal? I do remember a stage where he was constantly hanging off the back, from the first climb onwards, but he was already in the top-10 then, if I'm not mistaken, and his rivals could have smelled blood.

4) Hesjedal had most of his team working on the front on the run-in to Pau to limit the breakaway's gains to protect his top 10 position from Horner and Plaza. In what other race would you see top riders kill themselves to protect a teammate's 10th place?

So Hesjedal's top-10 is a fluke because other riders didn't get 15 minutes gifted to them from a breakaway, thus moving him out of the top-10?

Hesjedal will never be a Tour contender. He may do the occasional good GC placing, but he's not going to threaten to win a GT any more than Marco Pinotti or Luís León Sánchez are.

He's a better climber than either of them. A GT win might be a bit too much, but a podium should certainly be within his reach. Not at the Tour though.

 

[The Hitch]

He's a better climber than either of them. A GT win might be a bit too much, but a podium should certainly be within his reach. Not at the Tour though.

Ryder Hejsdal Gt podium? Sorry but there are just too many people superior in gts. There will always be 3 people better than him in any given gt.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Top-10 at the Vuelta or Giro is certainly possible for Hesjedal. He's not the Wiggins type that can't handle any inclines in the double digits. Whether he can find the motivation to try getting a top-10 there is another thing.

A top 10 should be well within his grasp. The Tour is the one he's best suited to but he could do a top 10 at the others. That still won't make him a GC contender though, any more than Tadej Valjavec has been - top 10 is probably about the limit for Hesjedal in GTs.

As opposed to the Vuelta, where the top-10 is filled with people gaining time from early attacks? Not too many examples of that in recent years.

I mean how the race gets blown apart in the mountains. The Tour often features people coming together in groups, rather than the every-man-for-himself stuff. If people had blown the race apart at the base of Morzine and the top guys had really gone for it, I'm not convinced he would have been sticking it and arriving with the leaders.

Which contender did they try to isolate and drop? At what point could they have done so to Hesjedal? I do remember a stage where he was constantly hanging off the back, from the first climb onwards, but he was already in the top-10 then, if I'm not mistaken, and his rivals could have smelled blood.

Wiggins was not put under any pressure until stage 17 of the '09 Tour, because nobody took him seriously as a threat; once they DID take him seriously, the elite climbers were able to work him over and drop him comfortably. I would imagine the same thing happening to Hesjedal; he may not implode like Wiggins did in 2010 but he's not going to beat Contador, Menchov, Sánchez, Schleck, Schleck, Evans or Nibali in a GT that they seriously go for. Never.

So Hesjedal's top-10 is a fluke because other riders didn't get 15 minutes gifted to them from a breakaway, thus moving him out of the top-10?

It's not a fluke, he deserved it. However, had other riders been more aggressive, he may not have been able to hold on. And in most other races, those breakaway guys would have been allowed to make it up to the top 10. How aggressively did Garmin or Fuji defend Danielson and Cobo's top 10 spots when Deignan got in that break in the '09 Vuelta? Or how about how Sella got back into the top 10 of the '08 Giro? That's just a peculiarity of the Tour de France that fell into place for Hesjedal. In similar circumstances in the Giro or Vuelta, the situation would have been different. Notwithstanding that, though he's pretty good with a short steep uphill, I can't see him sticking it out on the long, really steep stuff that they use in the Giro and sometimes Vuelta too.

He's a better climber than either of them. A GT win might be a bit too much, but a podium should certainly be within his reach. Not at the Tour though.

I would be very surprised if he gets a GT podium at anything other than a GT where the field isn't particularly strong and other contenders fall by the wayside. A bit like the 2010 Vuelta. But even so, because he's on an Anglophone team, the Tour will always be the central focus for him after the Ardennes (in which he has a much better chance of victories and podiums). As a rider, his skill-set is better suited to the Tour than the Giro or Vuelta, but then there's the problem that the field is strongest at the Tour.

And as Hitch said, there will always, always be three people stronger than Hesjedal at the Tour de France.


Or, to put it another way...
Do you think William Bonnet is a contender for the Monuments, now that he's been top 10 at the Ronde? Or Hayden Roulston at Roubaix?

Being able to go top 10 and being a challenger for the win are two completely different things.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It's not that insane IMO. Look at Hesjedal for a recent example of a hilly rider-turned-Tour contender. Until this year there was never any sign he could do top-10 in any GT, let alone the Tour. He was always mediocre at best on the longer climbs, like Gilbert is now.

Have to disagree with you here concerning Hesjedal.
He was always a climbing type. But at the pro's only showed rare glimpses.
To remind you: Hesjedal was already 4th at the Volta a Catalunya finish up Arcalis in 2006...
He had shown glimpses of good climbing ability in the Vuelta as well. Finishing 14th at La Covatilla and 18th at the Ponferrada. As well as being 17th in the Dauphine that year.
Definately not the 'hilly specialist turned into climber' you presume him to be.

The reason why he did crap most of the time was because he never rode for himself and had some injury concerns as well. > Not the belief to do well.

 

[theyoungest]

Or, to put it another way...
Do you think William Bonnet is a contender for the Monuments, now that he's been top 10 at the Ronde? Or Hayden Roulston at Roubaix?

Being able to go top 10 and being a challenger for the win are two completely different things.

Where did I say he'll win GTs? I consider a GT contender someone who can hold his own in a GT, not necessarily win it. That's probably the difference of defition we use.

And with Gilbert being the more talented rider, who knows what he can do? AFAIK, he has never really tried to get a result on a big mountain top finish, so I wouldn't dismiss him straight away. Look, if some people think that Cancellara is able to become a Tour contender, the idea of Gilbert trying to become one seems more reasonable to me. That's why I said it's not that insane, it's been done before by lesser riders than Gilbert.

Have to disagree with you here concerning Hesjedal.
He was always a climbing type. But at the pro's only showed rare glimpses.
To remind you: Hesjedal was already 4th at the Volta a Catalunya finish up Arcalis in 2006...
He had shown glimpses of good climbing ability in the Vuelta as well. Finishing 14th at La Covatilla and 18th at the Ponferrada. As well as being 17th in the Dauphine that year.
Definately not the 'hilly specialist turned into climber' you presume him to be.

The reason why he did crap most of the time was because he never rode for himself and had some injury concerns as well. > Not the belief to do well.

Again, who knows what Gilbert could have done if he had tried? Any examples of him trying to get a result on a big climb? If you expected Hesjedal to be capable of sticking with Sanchez, Menchov et al. on the Tourmalet, why are you still on a cycling forum and not lying on a beach somewhere, filthy rich from betting on him?

 

[The Hitch]

Where did I say he'll win GTs? I consider a GT contender someone who can hold his own in a GT, not necessarily win it. That's probably the difference of defition we use.

And with Gilbert being the more talented rider, who knows what he can do? AFAIK, he has never really tried to get a result on a big mountain top finish, so I wouldn't dismiss him straight away. Look, if some people think that Cancellara is able to become a Tour contender, the idea of Gilbert trying to become one seems more reasonable to me. That's why I said it's not that insane, it's been done before by lesser riders than Gilbert.

Agree. If people say Canc can be a gt contender Gilbert has a better chance.

Again, who knows what Gilbert could have done if he had tried? Any examples of him trying to get a result on a big climb? If you expected Hesjedal to be capable of sticking with Sanchez, Menchov et al. on the Tourmalet, why are you still on a cycling forum and not lying on a beach somewhere, filthy rich from betting on him?

He was.

As i heard it he made 50 grand from betting 50 to one on Voeckler winning Quebec, another 100 grand on Gesink for 10 to one to win Montreal, and 200 grand for betting 20 to one on Heysedal to be with the gc guys on Morzine.

But as he was about to catch his plane to a better life, he saw a bet, 2 to one and decided to put his winnings on it

The bet was

Vincenzo Nibali will not win the Vuelta.

 

[Matthijs]

You have to remember GTs are as much about recovery as your power to weight. JVDB clearly takes the load of 3 weeks racing quite well. Gilbert for whatever reasons, not so much.

Gilbert has, for a classic rider, a amazing recovery. He can top classics almost every weekend with 5 weeks between in spring.
Allthough a GT off course is different, he seems to have some potential?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ridicule it as you want Youngest+Hitch. You are missing the point.

I never thought Hesjedal would become THIS good, but, it is simply not true when you call him a hilly classic specialist turned climber/gc contender.
That is bull****.

He was always a decent climber. More-so than his classics results by the way. So not a classic converted to climber type you make him out to be.
So the comparison with Gilbert is faulty, Hesjedal is a wrong example.

If you want an example of hilly classics specialist that did well in grand tours take Valverde.

 

[The Hitch]

Ridicule it as you want Youngest+Hitch. You are missing the point.

I never thought Hesjedal would become THIS good, but, it is simply not true when you call him a hilly classic specialist turned climber/gc contender.
That is bull****.

He was always a decent climber. More-so than his classics results by the way. So not a classic converted to climber type you make him out to be.
So the comparison with Gilbert is faulty, Hesjedal is a wrong example.

If you want an example of hilly classics specialist that did well in grand tours take Valverde.

Nah. You might be right about Hejsdal but Id say Valverde has always been as much a GC rider (3rd in Vuelta on debut season) as he has a hilly classics specialist. Ultimately though hes an expert in both. A level above Hejsdal in both and 2 levels above Gilbert in GTs while the same in hilly classics.

 

[ferryman]

Ridicule it as you want Youngest+Hitch. You are missing the point.

I never thought Hesjedal would become THIS good, but, it is simply not true when you call him a hilly classic specialist turned climber/gc contender.
That is bull****.

He was always a decent climber. More-so than his classics results by the way. So not a classic converted to climber type you make him out to be.
So the comparison with Gilbert is faulty, Hesjedal is a wrong example.

If you want an example of hilly classics specialist that did well in grand tours take Valverde.

I think Cunego would be a better example.

 

[maltiv]

I think Cunego would be a better example.

or Lance himself.

 

[Matthijs]

If you want an example of hilly classics specialist that did well in grand tours take Valverde.

wrong one, Valverde is a GC contender in the Vuelta for many years...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Davide Rebellin was 10th in the '08 Vuelta or something like that, maybe just outside the top 10 (think Bruseghin was 10th actually, now I come to think about it).

 

[roundabout]

He was pretty high up in 9th or 10th but he didn't go all the way to Madrid, last time he finished a GT was years ago - cq sez Giro 2000.

 

[AngusW]

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/6344/Eddy-Merckx-picks-Gilbert-over-Van-den-Broeck-for-good-Tour-finish.aspx

Wishful thinking?

Yes. Patrick Lefevre was on about Bettini being able to win the Tour de France after his 2003 Tour. Stijn DeVolder was touted as GT material after finishing 11th in the Vuelta. Neither progressed further in GTs. I expect the same for Gilbert, particularly as he has the potential to win all 5 monunments (not saying he'll do it, mind). That would be a much greater achievement than a top ten or even five in the Tour.

 

[hrotha]

Davide Rebellin was 10th in the '08 Vuelta or something like that, maybe just outside the top 10 (think Bruseghin was 10th actually, now I come to think about it).

In 1996 he was top 10 in both the Giro and the Vuelta. But he was more of a climber back then. Gilbert is, among all the hilly classics riders I've seen, the most explosive and least suited for long or consecutive climbs. Guys like Rebellin, Di Luca or Bartoli could consistently be among the top 40 in the GC of a GT even when they weren't going for it, and that's more or less where I'd draw the line between the decent climbers and everyone else.

 

[ultimobici]

The only critisism I have for Gilbert (who I really like) is his timming. Either too early or too late when he makes his moves. Has anyone else noticed this?

That's why he won Lombardia twice, eh?

 

[El Pistolero]

In 1996 he was top 10 in both the Giro and the Vuelta. But he was more of a climber back then. Gilbert is, among all the hilly classics riders I've seen, the most explosive and least suited for long or consecutive climbs. Guys like Rebellin, Di Luca or Bartoli could consistently be among the top 40 in the GC of a GT even when they weren't going for it, and that's more or less where I'd draw the line between the decent climbers and everyone else.

When Gilbert was like 23 years old he was somewhere in the top 40 of the GC in his first Giro d'Italia.

There's a reason why guys like Rebellin climbed so well. When Gilbert was about to start his first Tour de France he said to the media he'll never be able to win it making a reference to a doped up peloton.

Yes. Patrick Lefevre was on about Bettini being able to win the Tour de France after his 2003 Tour. Stijn DeVolder was touted as GT material after finishing 11th in the Vuelta. Neither progressed further in GTs. I expect the same for Gilbert, particularly as he has the potential to win all 5 monunments (not saying he'll do it, mind). That would be a much greater achievement than a top ten or even five in the Tour.

That would be a greater achievement than winning the damn thing...

 

[The Hitch]

When Gilbert was like 23 years old he was somewhere in the top 40 of the GC in his first Giro d'Italia.

Not consistently though. THe point was Di Luca etc could do a gt without trying, and their moderate (not top) pace on mountain stages would still be high enough to get them into top 40.

I still think Gilbert could do it.

That would be a greater achievement than winning the damn thing.

yep.

Its obvious Rebellin was doped

Cry me a river

 

[hrotha]

There's a reason why guys like Rebellin climbed so well. When Gilbert was about to start his first Tour de France he said to the media he'll never be able to win it making a reference to a doped up peloton

Whatever the reason, Rebellin, riding in the normal circumstances of pro cycling in the 90s, was a climber. Gilbert, riding in the normal circumstances of pro cycling in the 00s, isn't. That's all that matters here.

 

[El Pistolero]

Whatever the reason, Rebellin, riding in the normal circumstances of pro cycling in the 90s, was a climber. Gilbert, riding in the normal circumstances of pro cycling in the 00s, isn't. That's all that matters here.

Armstrong wasn't a climber in the 90s and in the 00s he was. That's all that matters here?

Ps: I'm fully aware Armstrong already was a climber in '98

 

[hrotha]

Armstrong wasn't a climber in the 90s and in the 00s he was. That's all that matters here?

Ps: I'm fully aware Armstrong already was a climber in '98

Armstrong was well on his way to become a climber after he started working with a certain Dr. Ferrari. But why does it matter? Are you suggesting Gilbert should dope?

 

[The Hitch]

Are you suggesting Gilbert should dope?

Are you suggesting he doesnt