I’m sorry, KoopaCycling—you seem like a reasonable guy, but over the last few pages, you seem to have a weird obsession.
It’s actually quite simple: both MVDP and Pidcock rode correctly. You have a better chance of getting a strong result, or possibly winning, from a group of three (and later two) than from a group of 40. All these retrospective 'ifs and buts' might be interesting, but in the end, both acted rationally.
Even if MVDP later says he felt weaker than last year, he definitely didn't feel that much weaker—he and Pidcock were the only ones able to follow Pogačar on the Cipressa. He obviously believed in his chances and wanted to push on. Of course, we know now that he was dropped on the Poggio, but he wasn't totally cooked; the peloton still couldn't catch him, meaning he was still strong. At that point in the race, he couldn't have known exactly what was ahead.
This is even truer for Pidcock, who, by your own admission, is the better sprinter and made a rational decision to carry on. It’s not like they were pulling like madmen and going into red the whole time. They managed their efforts and held something back—the fact that the peloton was closing proves they weren't going over the top. They raced logically, making decisions based on the information they had at the moment rather than in retrospect