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Milan Time Trial time gap projections

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python

python

Sep 25, 2009
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one important factor that's unappreciated is the relative lack of sharp twists and turns...

that combined with flatness and a predominant downhill should put light riders like quintana in a disadvantage compared to pinot, nibs, dumo and zak...

i feel pretty confident that mr Q will lose 1:30 to a winner which most likely will be dumo. and zak is going to surprize even himself - he was too good in the last week
 
Armchair Cyclist

Armchair Cyclist

Moderator
Mar 22, 2010
13,780
9,370
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Re:

python said:
one important factor that's unappreciated is the relative lack of sharp twists and turns...

that combined with flatness and a predominant downhill should put light riders like quintana in a disadvantage compared to pinot, nibs, dumo and zak...

i feel pretty confident that mr Q will lose 1:30 to a winner which most likely will be dumo. and zak is going to surprize even himself - he was too good in the last week
Click to expand...

That "predominant downhill" is an average gradient of -0.22%.

2m per km is imperceptible rather than predominant.
 
O

Orbit501

Aug 27, 2012
1,404
385
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Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Eurosport's Ashley House on twitter:
Took me a few hrs,but analysing recent flat-ish TT data,stats predict #Giro100 GC:
Pinot wins
TD +1"
VN +2"
NQ +20"
IZ +1'44"
DP +2'29"
https://t.co/47vs4wpAmh

His calculations in the link
Click to expand...

Lol. He should have used the back of a cigarette packet, results would have been just as random.

Fair play to him for giving it a go, and I like his findings, but there's just too many variables at play for anyone to factor in.
 
python

python

Sep 25, 2009
7,527
1
0
Re: Re:

Armchair cyclist said:
python said:
one important factor that's unappreciated is the relative lack of sharp twists and turns...

that combined with flatness and a predominant downhill should put light riders like quintana in a disadvantage compared to pinot, nibs, dumo and zak...

i feel pretty confident that mr Q will lose 1:30 to a winner which most likely will be dumo. and zak is going to surprize even himself - he was too good in the last week
Click to expand...

That "predominant downhill" is an average gradient of -0.22%.

2m per km is imperceptible rather than predominant.
Click to expand...
you seem predominant at splitting hairs :D

when the road goes up slightly it is up slightly.. when it is going down it is down,. when it is a lot down it is 'dominantly' down. calculating average for such course is none sense, b/c all that's needed is to take a look at a profile it is predominantly down.

besides, the main point of my post was the relative straightness, b/c sharp turn drain speed.. heavier riders like dumo once up to a cruising 50 km/h benefit more from such a course...again, predominantly, b/c nothing is black and white.
 
B

Brullnux

Mar 31, 2015
9,064
3,196
23,180
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Brullnux said:
Pinot will really have to pull it out the bag to stay only three seconds behind Dumoulin.
Click to expand...
Semantics, but according to the calculations he would lose 9s to Dumoulin :)
Click to expand...
Oh yeah my bad I got the gap between Nibali and Pinot and Pinot and Dumoulin confused. 9 seconds would still be impressive.

I have doubts over Zakarin. He was very good in the third week, but is an overrated time trialling, at least in this forum. He doesn't tend to do great in flat TTs. In fact, his only properly good TT since his Romandie 2015 performance was Mont Brouilly this year, which wasn't exactly flat.
 
Armchair Cyclist

Armchair Cyclist

Moderator
Mar 22, 2010
13,780
9,370
28,180
Re: Re:

python said:
Armchair cyclist said:
python said:
one important factor that's unappreciated is the relative lack of sharp twists and turns...

that combined with flatness and a predominant downhill should put light riders like quintana in a disadvantage compared to pinot, nibs, dumo and zak...

i feel pretty confident that mr Q will lose 1:30 to a winner which most likely will be dumo. and zak is going to surprize even himself - he was too good in the last week
Click to expand...

That "predominant downhill" is an average gradient of -0.22%.

2m per km is imperceptible rather than predominant.
Click to expand...
you seem predominant at splitting hairs :D

when the road goes up slightly it is up slightly.. when it is going down it is down,. when it is a lot down it is 'dominantly' down. calculating average for such course is none sense, b/c all that's needed is to take a look at a profile it is predominantly down.

besides, the main point of my post was the relative straightness, b/c sharp turn drain speed.. heavier riders like dumo once up to a cruising 50 km/h benefit more from such a course...again, predominantly, b/c nothing is black and white.
Click to expand...

If you want to think that a gradient of 1 in 500 is going to be more worth more than a split hair, feel free.

I was pointing out to others the insignificance of the factor you chose to draw attention to.
 
S

saneguy

Mar 25, 2013
664
1
9,985
Quintana: 0:00 + 0.45 = 0.45
Nibali: 0:39 + 0:0.40 = 1:19
Pinot: 0:43 + 0:40 = 1:23
Dumoulin: 0:53 + 0:00 = 0:53
Zakarin: 1:15 + 0:20 = 1:35

Quintana wins the Giro! Go beat this.

Nah - its my wishlist. Realistically I think TD will take the pink. Nibs and not Zak could be the surprise package though.
 
B

Brullnux

Mar 31, 2015
9,064
3,196
23,180
Just to add to the downhill vs not downhill debate, this is how downhill it is in real life:

Ogq8fry.png


Rcs just made it seem more downhill to make the TT seem different I guess. It is basically as pan flat as you can get.
 
Hugo Koblet

Hugo Koblet

May 9, 2010
10,918
2,259
25,680
Re:

Brullnux said:
Just to add to the downhill vs not downhill debate, this is how downhill it is in real life:

Ogq8fry.png


Rcs just made it seem more downhill to make the TT seem different I guess. It is basically as pan flat as you can get.
Click to expand...
That should be an even bigger advantage for Dumoulin then, right?
 
Hugo Koblet

Hugo Koblet

May 9, 2010
10,918
2,259
25,680
Re: Re:

DNP-Old said:
Hugo Koblet said:
Brullnux said:
Just to add to the downhill vs not downhill debate, this is how downhill it is in real life:

Ogq8fry.png


Rcs just made it seem more downhill to make the TT seem different I guess. It is basically as pan flat as you can get.
Click to expand...
That should be an even bigger advantage for Dumoulin then, right?
Click to expand...
He prefers a hillier course.
Click to expand...
I know, but so does Quintana. My point was that a flat course would be a bigger advantage than a slightly downhill one I think. Not sure about that though.
 
LaFlorecita

LaFlorecita

May 15, 2011
45,171
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24,680
Dumoulin prefers a rolling course but vs climbers a flat TT is in his advantage, on a hilly course the climbers can limit their losses better.

It's the same for other GC contenders, Contador, Porte and Froome may perform better on a hilly course but if they are racing Quintana and Bardet they will be happier with a flat course.
 
Hugo Koblet

Hugo Koblet

May 9, 2010
10,918
2,259
25,680
LaFlorecita said:
Dumoulin prefers a rolling course but vs climbers a flat TT is in his advantage, on a hilly course the climbers can limit their losses better.

It's the same for other GC contenders, Contador, Porte and Froome may perform better on a hilly course but if they are racing Quintana and Bardet they will be happier with a flat course.
Click to expand...
That's obvious, but what about a flat vs a slightly downhill one?
 
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