Milano—Sanremo 2025: Who will win?

hayneplane · 2025-03-18T10:36:35+0000

Keldergoat said:
As long as the tandem MvdP and Philipsen is in this race, I see it as a very tough nut to crack for UAE and Pogi. Poggio just isn't hard enough to drop MvdP, his descending is decent but nowhere near the likes of MvdP and Pidcock, and Phliipsen is climbing better and better.

The interesting question also arise if Philipsen survives the Poggio, but with Milan and/or Kooij in their wheel. Which card would you play if you were DS of Alpecin (or Trek for that matter also being able to bet on two horses).

If Kooij is there I would still back Philipsen as Plan A but if Milan is there I would give free rein to MVDP to launch.

hayneplane · 2025-03-18T10:38:34+0000

tobydawq said:
I picked Milan. If there is one thing I know, it is that Pogacar shouldn't be the bookmakers' favourite.

I also picked Milan as he is climbing well and dominating the sprints.

Where I differ is that I do think that Pogacar is a worthy favourite because he is the only rider you can expect to feature in the final in just about every feasible scenario. I don’t expect him to win but I do see the logic in his favourite status.

tobydawq · 2025-03-18T10:51:42+0000

hayneplane said:
I also picked Milan as he is climbing well and dominating the sprints.

Where I differ is that I do think that Pogacar is a worthy favourite because he is the only rider you can expect to feature in the final in just about every feasible scenario. I don’t expect him to win but I do see the logic in his favourite status.

I think you can say the same for Van der Poel and he will beat Pogi in the sprint.

There is no reason the odds are higher on him.

hayneplane · 2025-03-18T10:58:37+0000

tobydawq said:
I think you can say the same for Van der Poel and he will beat Pogi in the sprint.

There is no reason the odds are higher on him.

Bookies will factor in that UAE are all in for Pog while Alpecin have 2 of the 5 best cards to play meaning more chance that MVDP sacrifices himself again.

I don’t rule out a successful Cipressa solo and the only top contender rider that would even try that is Pogacar.

Cookster15 · 2025-03-18T12:26:18+0000

tobydawq said:
There is no reason the odds are higher on him.

Betting odds reflect how much money is placed on riders to win. Often this isn’t rational. The more money bet the lower the odds. This is not the same as the objective winning probability.

With Pog, especially after his amazing 2024, he is simply a more popular rider who attracts more money. But that doesn’t mean he is actually more likely to win MSR than MVDP.

Devil's Elbow · 2025-03-18T12:26:26+0000

Devil's Elbow said:
Late attack by someone not in the poll to win. If Ineos do the sensible thing and send Tarling and Sheffield too in addition to Ganna, it may even be their race to lose in that scenario, and my gut feeling is that the former will pull off a big upset.

NARRATOR: Ineos did not, in fact, do the sensible thing.

Consequently, I will switch my vote to Roger Adrià.

YavorD · 2025-03-18T12:45:48+0000

Pedersen is a popular option, but honestly I wouldn't bett too much on him beating Pogacar in a sprint.
Pogacar won the last 3 (2, if you don't want to include Rimini) both of them contested. Including in San Remo last year.

jamesblonde · 2025-03-18T12:56:08+0000

Rain and moderate easterly wind forecast for Saturday.
Favors Poggi (not cold enough to favor Pedersen)

Long term weather forecast for Sanremo

Weather forecast for Sanremo for the next 10 days.

www.yr.no

Sciatic · 2025-03-18T15:19:15+0000

YavorD said:
Pedersen is a popular option, but honestly I wouldn't bett too much on him beating Pogacar in a sprint.
Pogacar won the last 3 (2, if you don't want to include Rimini) both of them contested. Including in San Remo last year.

Choosing someone in a poll isn't the same as saying you'd bet on them.

rghysens · 2025-03-18T16:47:25+0000

Pogačar wins after a solo from Cipressa.

Krzysztof_O · 2025-03-18T16:49:31+0000

4 guys in the poll around 15-20% range. Only MSR can produce this.

Zoetemelk-fan · 2025-03-18T16:52:37+0000

Ok so recent weather forecast says 17°C, cloudy, 6 m/s with smaller gusts, only light precipitation 1.7mm between 1pm-7pm.
I've changed my vote (once again) to Philipsen, but could be a succesful shot from Cipressa by Pogi as well. All open to me

Krzysztof_O · 2025-03-18T16:55:09+0000

Zoetemelk-fan said:
Ok so recent weather forecast says 17°C, cloudy, 6 m/s with smaller gusts, only light precipitation 1.7mm between 1pm-7pm.
I've changed my vote (once again) to Philipsen, but could be a succesful shot from Cipressa by Pogi as well. All open to me

According to GFS only 7-8 degrees for most of the route. Probably a few degrees warmer near the cost (due to the sea influence).

Didinho · 2025-03-18T17:06:49+0000

I picked Mathieu. Guessing that Milan will cover Philipsen uphill so he can get a free role for an attack after the descent. Instead of reeling in the attackers, he goes solo.

Bolder · 2025-03-18T17:26:40+0000

Summoned said:
Went with Pedersen because I think everyone will be watching Pogacar, which means a sprint. I think he will have the best sprint after a huge effort over the Poggio.

My reasoning too.

Cookster15 · 2025-03-18T17:32:29+0000

Zoetemelk-fan said:
cloudy, 6 m/s with smaller gusts

Will this be a headwind? If a 20km/h headwind I would think that reduces the likelihood of a a successful solo attack from Cipressa by Pogacar which is the only way he wins this.

But this is hard to pick, I'm sticking with Pedersen.

Ilmaestro99 · 2025-03-18T17:34:42+0000

Summoned said:
Went with Pedersen because I think everyone will be watching Pogacar, which means a sprint. I think he will have the best sprint after a huge effort over the Poggio.

Pederson didn't even podium the sprint last year.

Philepsen has to be the favourite, although I hope neither him, mvdp or pocagar wins

Unchained · 2025-03-18T17:43:46+0000

Ilmaestro99 said:
Pederson didn't even podium the sprint last year.

Philepsen has to be the favourite, although I hope neither him, mvdp or pocagar wins

Mads Pedersen absolutely flying currently, can he react? Most of the favorites will attack the schit out of him, His fluke good climbing will certainly be tested

Monsi · 2025-03-18T17:49:38+0000

Cookster15 said:
Will this be a headwind? If a 20km/h headwind I would think that reduces the likelihood of a a successful solo attack from Cipressa by Pogacar which is the only way he wins this.

But this is hard to pick, I'm sticking with Pedersen.

I think forecasts atm are mostly predicting tail or cross-tailwind

Cookster15 · 2025-03-18T18:02:45+0000

Unchained said:
His fluke good climbing will certainly be tested

I don't think its a fluke. Pedersen is simply in great form. But climbing at 37km/h is a different kind of climbing. Big chainring, reliant upon draft and positioning. Suits bigger more powerful riders - like Pedersen.

Armchair Cyclist · 2025-03-18T19:22:46+0000

The poll has been appreciated:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1901912823027896777

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1901912823027896777

KZD · 2025-03-18T21:32:28+0000

I think Van der Poel should be the biggest favourite especially with the predicted weather however I have a feeling Ganna will win with an attack after the Poggio descent.

Monsi · 2025-03-18T22:27:54+0000

KZD said:
I think Van der Poel should be the biggest favourite especially with the predicted weather however I have a feeling Ganna will win with an attack after the Poggio descent.

That’s pretty much Ganna’s best chance to win but if Philipsen is in the main group when Ganna attacks after the Poggio descent, he doesn’t stand a chance because MVDP will chase him down

Milano—Sanremo 2025: Who will win?

Who will be the winner of the 2025 Milano—Sanremo?

Tadej Pogačar

Mathieu van der Poel

Jasper Philipsen

Mads Pedersen

Filippo Ganna

Jonathan Milan

Matej Mohorič

Thomas Pidcock

Michael Matthews

Other/Vino

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