I think Pogacar and Van Der Poel will somehow cancel each other. Pogacar will not drive like a madman, like last year, knowing that it will go into Van Der Poel's favor, and Mathieu will be a tiny percent weaker than last year and will not be able to snap the elastics totally. I think they will drag couple of others with them at the top of the Poggio, and we will get the winner among those guys.
My pick: Toms Skujins.
This is how I probably see it playing out...although, unless Pogacar tries something on the Cipressa just in case there's a few seconds of hesitation behind, what other choice does he have other than to go thermonuclear on the Poggio to try to drop everyone?
I suppose Pog could try to go from a small group early at the finish, hoping again for a bit of uncertainty, but that would probably be just a long leadout for someone else...
Not having Wout in the field will benefit Pogacar because MvdP often keys off him for attacks, I think. MvdP sometimes (often) has positioning issues so may have to make up a lot of ground on the Poggio. I have no idea what MvdP's shape is and he may not either. Last year we (myself included) thought he was a bit undercooked.
Still, Pedersen is my pick from a small group. So much drama in just 10k...