Milano - Sanremo: March 23rd, 2019

[Leinster]

Re:

Poggio is not an explosive climb.

A time trialist or classics rider with a nice kick has just as much of a chance, if not better, of getting away than a puncheur.

The sharp corners on the Poggio mean that someone with sharp acceleration can open a gap on a diesel quite quickly. Explosivity is more than just bursting up steep ramps.

Bennett is flying right now, but he’s never made the front group after the Poggio before. Maybe the race is just too long for him? I’d love to see him make it, though. It will be a tricky situation for Bora if he and Sagan are still in the mix (I can see more situations where Sagan outlasts Sam than vice versa).

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Only Viviani, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria and Bennett are allowed to wait for the sprint IMO.

Demare, Matthews, Degenkolb, Colbrelli, Ulissi, Kristoff.

3 of those guys have even won the race in a bunch sprint before.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Only Viviani, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria and Bennett are allowed to wait for the sprint IMO.

Demare, Matthews, Degenkolb, Colbrelli, Ulissi, Kristoff.

3 of those guys have even won the race in a bunch sprint before.

Matthews and Colbrelli are not fast enough in a flat sprint and Ulissi doesn't even belong on the list.

Degenkolb and Kristoff can not beat the above 5 mentioned.. this isn't 2015 anymore.

 

[RedheadDane]

Love the Eurosport Promo (but missed the first part)

"... the traditional sprint finish. Except… " *Shows Nibali winning last year, complete with dramatic music and excited Italian commentators*. "Expect the unexpected."

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Only Viviani, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria and Bennett are allowed to wait for the sprint IMO.

Demare, Matthews, Degenkolb, Colbrelli, Ulissi, Kristoff.

3 of those guys have even won the race in a bunch sprint before.

Matthews and Colbrelli are not fast enough in a flat sprint and Ulissi doesn't even belong on the list.

Degenkolb and Kristoff can not beat the above 5 mentioned.. this isn't 2015 anymore.

After 290km Kristoff and Degenkolb can beat anyone! We're talking about riders who can handle the distance and produce powerful sprint at the end, previous winners of this race. And yours fabulous five combined have one(!!!) podium.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think the chances of guys like Alaphilippe are usually overrated. 2 out of 3 times this race will still end in a bunch sprint and, if someone wins solo it will be a surprise attack not the attack of one of the pre race favorites, and if someone like Alaphilippe gets away on the Poggio, it most likely won't be solo but in a small group where he first has to win the sprint (something he failed at before). I think Ewan will win.

 

[Akuryo]

I think the chances of guys like Alaphilippe are usually overrated. 2 out of 3 times this race will still end in a bunch sprint and, if someone wins solo it will be a surprise attack not the attack of one of the pre race favorites, and if someone like Alaphilippe gets away on the Poggio, it most likely won't be solo but in a small group where he first has to win the sprint (something he failed at before). I think Ewan will win.

In this decade it was actually the other way around. Only 3 editions ended in a (reduced) bunch finish. All others were won by late attacks. So yeah, 2 out of 3 is not quite the correct formula.

 

[masking_agent]

Can't wait for the long day in front of the riders. I think Team Sky with there recent invigorating news will get Moscon their first..

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Only Viviani, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria and Bennett are allowed to wait for the sprint IMO.

Demare, Matthews, Degenkolb, Colbrelli, Ulissi, Kristoff.

3 of those guys have even won the race in a bunch sprint before.

Matthews and Colbrelli are not fast enough in a flat sprint and Ulissi doesn't even belong on the list.

Degenkolb and Kristoff can not beat the above 5 mentioned.. this isn't 2015 anymore.

After 290km Kristoff and Degenkolb can beat anyone! We're talking about riders who can handle the distance and produce powerful sprint at the end, previous winners of this race. And yours fabulous five combined have one(!!!) podium.

This. Kristoff, Degenkolb and Demare all won TdF stages last year, all after Groenewegen and Gaviria had packed up and gone home. MSR is 99% about surviving to the Via Roma. The biggest finishing group there in the last 30 years was 60 riders, and the average is less than 20.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Absolutely no clue this year honestly.

 

[Climbing]

Ala name flying around too much, pretty much garanteed he will be marked, so quite unlikely to get away.
I think this year is a bunch sprint, at best a reduced bunch.
Legendary ride already happened last year.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Ala name flying around too much, pretty much garanteed he will be marked, so quite unlikely to get away.
I think this year is a bunch sprint, at best a reduced bunch.
Legendary ride already happened last year.

Nobody mentioning Gilbert at all. He’s flying so far under the radar he might just do it...

 

[Pantani_lives]

D-QSt has three or four potential winners, with Viviani kept behind for a possible sprint, while his team mates are attacking. Weirdly enough Lefevere's team has only won La Primavera once, with Bettini.

 

[Akuryo]

Re:

D-QSt has three or four potential winners, with Viviani kept behind for a possible sprint, while his team mates are attacking. Weirdly enough Lefevere's team has only won La Primavera once, with Bettini.

Dont forget my man Pippo in 06!

 

[Bardamu]

Sans Matthews Sunweb will be going for Dumoulin/Kragh Andersen?

 

[sir fly]

Tough call this one.
Most of the teams will have Poggio and sprint options, meaning some kind of group finish is likeable.
Whether it'll be a sprint or attacking group depends on circumstances up to the Poggio.
Should the numbers in the attacking group be more - less equal, they'll have a good chance of succeeding. Any disparity should produce a pursuit.

 

[Velolover2]

Big Tom is in the race. I'd like to see him try something on Cipressa but I think he is going to work for Matthews.

Has there ever been a winning move on Cipressa before?

 

[ThePirate81]

Colombo 1996

 

[Akuryo]

Re:

Big Tom is in the race. I'd like to see him try something on Cipressa but I think he is going to work for Matthews.

Has there ever been a winning move on Cipressa before?

He could go with Gilbert. They would make an awesome duo to go long!

 

[Red Rick]

Cipressa moves are just completely doomed from a full peloton.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Big Tom is in the race. I'd like to see him try something on Cipressa but I think he is going to work for Matthews.

Has there ever been a winning move on Cipressa before?

He could go with Gilbert. They would make an awesome duo to go long!

They'd need at least two more similar couples to hold on.

 

[Lequack]

 

[Akuryo]

Re:

Cipressa moves are just completely doomed from a full peloton.

Yeah, but do you see guys like Dumoulin or Gilbert outsprinting anybody up the Poggio or at the Via Roma? Those kind of riders have to go long even though it probably wont succeed.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Cipressa moves are just completely doomed from a full peloton.

Yeah, but do you see guys like Dumoulin or Gilbert outsprinting anybody up the Poggio or at the Via Roma? Those kind of riders have to go long even though it probably wont succeed.

Better chance of winning attacking at Poggio IMO.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

Cipressa moves are just completely doomed from a full peloton.

Yeah, but do you see guys like Dumoulin or Gilbert outsprinting anybody up the Poggio or at the Via Roma? Those kind of riders have to go long even though it probably wont succeed.

Better chance of winning attacking at Poggio IMO.

Or after the Poggio.