Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Moviestar]

Sending Nairo to the Giro with the idea to hit the first week of the Tour in better shape than recent years (to level Froome)?

The Route du Sud-experience hasn't worked well the previous years for Nairo.

 

[Escarabajo]

I don't think Nairo would ride grupetto at the Giro either. But not trying to win it which would take a lot out of him for July.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I love the idea. Valverde said he will go back to his normal schedule next year, so that certainly opens the door for Quintana if he wants to.

I think they are very underwhelmed by the Tour-route, not really a lot of places to gain time on Froomey, especially with his Sky-team in mind. It will be extremely hard even without the Giro and Quintana showed, at least this year, that he coped with back-to-back GTs very well. I have no doubt that if he goes for it, he will certainly be better than Contador in 2015 and altho he won't be as dominant as Contador in 2011 in the Giro, he will also do better in July.

So Tour-route/Giro-route, Il Centesimo, Tour/Vuelta experiment last year. It makes sense to me.

 

[MatParker117]

Re:

Trying for the Giro-Tour double before you've been able to win the Tour smells a bit of hubris. I don't think he'll try it. He's won the Giro and winning it again makes relatively little difference to his palmares or standing in the sport. Winning the Tour is a huge boost to both.

(Has anyone won their first Tour as part of a Giro-Tour double other than Coppi, Pantani and Roche?)

Particularly as Bahrain, Astana, FDJ & Sky's Giro contingent will pound him relentlessly for the three weeks of that race.

 

[sir fly]

I doubt Quintana will target the double.
But it's interesting situation in the Movi regarding next year's GTs. Tour looks better for Valverde than for Quintana. Though, it's hard to believe Quintana will skip the Tour or go there to support Valverde.
What ever the outcome should be, Quintana needs to get his diesel warmed up better than this year.

 

[Miburo]

Can't compare with contador 2011 since contador crashed twice in that tour and the loss of time on the first day completely *** up his plans.

 

[trevim]

Can't really see Quintana doing the Giro again while the Tour is missing from his palmares. If he needs some high level racing before the Tour he has Dauphine or Suisse, he doesn't need the Giro for that. Not to mention how big of a disrespect it would be for a former winner to ride the Centesimo as preparation for anything else.

 

[Mr.White]

I think he'll do the double. He'll begin slow in the Giro, trying to reach top form in the third week which is the hardest and crucial. There will not be huge pressure for him to win there. If he wins great, if not, well there's the Tour after. And then, after Giro, a long rest until the Tour. He should carry that Giro form into the Tour immediately and try to ambush Froome right from the start, along with Valverde. That will be whole different approach from Movistar

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Can't really see Quintana doing the Giro again while the Tour is missing from his palmares. If he needs some high level racing before the Tour he has Dauphine or Suisse, he doesn't need the Giro for that. Not to mention how big of a disrespect it would be for a former winner to ride the Centesimo as preparation for anything else.

What? If he decides to races, it obviously just won't be as preparation, but with the intentions of winning. Him turning up would show respect for the race and its history if nothing else.

 

[AlexNYC]

The way I see it, it's not like his chances of beating Froome in the 2017 Tour are that great. If he aims to get to the first week in really good shape, trying to win the Giro while conserving as much energy as possible is as good a plan as any. He really has to be ready to attack at the first chance if he wants to remain close to Froome in the Tour.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

The way I see it, it's not like his chances of beating Froome in the 2017 Tour are that great. If he aims to get to the first week in really good shape, trying to win the Giro while conserving as much energy as possible is as good a plan as any. He really has to be ready to attack at the first chance if he wants to remain close to Froome in the Tour.

Agree. I was much more confident in his chances for 2015 and especially 2016 than 2017, but a lot can happen until then.

 

[Tonton]

Quintana has better morale after his win at the Vuelta. He should go for the Tour with a loaded team, show some b@lls (unlike last year), and he'll be fine. Not much ITT, and he can stage some big moves. Movistar can ride very smart. The GC via Virieu will explode teams. Froome isolated in the Mont du Chat could be his demise. Izoard? I like it. Nairito has to believe in himself. And Sky seemed not-so-USPS this year. He has a shot if he targets his preparation for one GC. Le Tour He can do it.

 

[silvergrenade]

Quintana has better morale after his win at the Vuelta. He should go for the Tour with a loaded team, show some b@lls (unlike last year), and he'll be fine. Not much ITT, and he can stage some big moves. Movistar can ride very smart. The GC via Virieu will explode teams. Froome isolated in the Mont du Chat could be his demise. Izoard? I like it. Nairito has to believe in himself. And Sky seemed not-so-USPS this year. He has a shot if he targets his preparation for one GC. Le Tour He can do it.

Why do you think he has better morale? He almost lost to Froome and couldnt drop him on the stage he wanted to. I believe he got a hell lot lucky in order to win the Vuelta. In every TT in 2016, he lost incredible amount of time and could hardly get any back in the mountains. From where I'm sitting I can totally see this as him not being confident enough to go heads up against Froome. He wants to ensure a successful season by riding the Giro because his chances of winning the Giro are extremely high as compared to the Tour.

Also, if he does the Giro there's no way he's even in the Top 3. The Tour is much much tougher with higher competition. Everybody hits their best form for July. Him beating Froome, Porte, Contador, Bardet, Yates, Mollema after doing the Giro is highly unlikely. 9

We cannot put this year's Vuelta as a yardstick to his performance in the 2017 Tour. Most of the peloton is just tired and the best GC riders dont ride it after doing the Tour and if they do, they arent in their top form.

 

[Matteo.]

if both Quintana and Froome will run Giro-Tour, one of them will have a good chance of winning double. The time is ripe because right now they do not have valid opponents.
they have recently demonstrated the engine to perform high levels for two consecutive GT

 

[Red Rick]

Nah, Froome wasn't as good in the Vuelta as in the Tour, and I also think Quintana could've been a little better. Giro would also be harder as well.

If both Quintana and Froome go to the Giro, then Quintana and Contador are normally the top favourites for me, and I don't think it would be that unlikely other guys would be in the mix as well

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

Nah, Froome wasn't as good in the Vuelta as in the Tour, and I also think Quintana could've been a little better. Giro would also be harder as well.

If both Quintana and Froome go to the Giro, then Quintana and Contador are normally the top favourites for me, and I don't think it would be that unlikely other guys would be in the mix as well

Ironically, all the cycling data gathered this year are against that bold statement you made

1- Froome and Quintana in the second GT beat the fresh(er) Contador.
2- Froome's overall performance in both GTs is better than Quintana's.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Nah, Froome wasn't as good in the Vuelta as in the Tour, and I also think Quintana could've been a little better. Giro would also be harder as well.

If both Quintana and Froome go to the Giro, then Quintana and Contador are normally the top favourites for me, and I don't think it would be that unlikely other guys would be in the mix as well

Ironically, all the cycling data gathered this year are against that bold statement you made

1- Froome and Quintana in the second GT beat the fresh(er) Contador.
2- Froome's overall performance in both GTs is better than Quintana's.

If we're gonna look it like scientific data, you also want to look at confounders, and you want to look at results from previous events. Furthermore, fresh does not equal good. And Quintana won the 2nd GT of Tour-Vuelta this year, despite that it was more suited to Froome.

I still find it very unlikely we'll see them both though

 

[Isaak-Gabriel]

https://twitter.com/Movistar_Team/status/792327020634054656

Don't know if it's a good or a bad news.

 

[Tonton]

Quintana has better morale after his win at the Vuelta. He should go for the Tour with a loaded team, show some b@lls (unlike last year), and he'll be fine. Not much ITT, and he can stage some big moves. Movistar can ride very smart. The GC via Virieu will explode teams. Froome isolated in the Mont du Chat could be his demise. Izoard? I like it. Nairito has to believe in himself. And Sky seemed not-so-USPS this year. He has a shot if he targets his preparation for one GC. Le Tour He can do it.

Why do you think he has better morale? He almost lost to Froome and couldnt drop him on the stage he wanted to. I believe he got a hell lot lucky in order to win the Vuelta. In every TT in 2016, he lost incredible amount of time and could hardly get any back in the mountains. From where I'm sitting I can totally see this as him not being confident enough to go heads up against Froome. He wants to ensure a successful season by riding the Giro because his chances of winning the Giro are extremely high as compared to the Tour.

Also, if he does the Giro there's no way he's even in the Top 3. The Tour is much much tougher with higher competition. Everybody hits their best form for July. Him beating Froome, Porte, Contador, Bardet, Yates, Mollema after doing the Giro is highly unlikely. 9

We cannot put this year's Vuelta as a yardstick to his performance in the 2017 Tour. Most of the peloton is just tired and the best GC riders dont ride it after doing the Tour and if they do, they arent in their top form.

My response wrt your first and last paragraphs: at the Vuelta, he attacked Froome, dropped him, whilein contention. Unlike the '13 and '15 Tour when Froome was managing his comfortable lead. In '17, little ITT, he shouldn't lose that much. Yes, I think that he proved to himself that he can beat Froome: it was a first for Quintana. That in itself is a morale booster.

Paragraph 2: we agree. He should do one GT, and prepare for it well. The Giro is easier to win (if Froome doesn't show up), but the '17 TdF course maybe a chance of a lifetime. In '18 we may be back to more ITT (particularly if Pinot keeps improving - TdF courses often cater to French riders, like Giros are designed to ensure that an Italian will be in the mix).

Quintana needs a TdF win to cement his legacy. With a strong team around him, including Don Alejandro, I could see him win fair and square. But not with a Giro in his legs.

 

[yaco]

I'd be surprised if Quintana fails to ride the TDF - I am not stressed about Quintana losing too much time in the ITT's to Froome, because we must remember that Froome's preparation for 2016 was also focused on the OLympics ITT - I'd expect some reduction in Froome's ITT performnces in 2017.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

I'd be surprised if Quintana fails to ride the TDF - I am not stressed about Quintana losing too much time in the ITT's to Froome, because we must remember that Froome's preparation for 2016 was also focused on the OLympics ITT - I'd expect some reduction in Froome's ITT performnces in 2017.

Absolutely, I expect him to TT like 2015.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I'd be surprised if Quintana fails to ride the TDF - I am not stressed about Quintana losing too much time in the ITT's to Froome, because we must remember that Froome's preparation for 2016 was also focused on the OLympics ITT - I'd expect some reduction in Froome's ITT performnces in 2017.

Absolutely, I expect him to TT like 2015.

I think he will be better. Consider the fact that Quintana lost 11 seconds in 2015 on 14k, that would transition to say, 25 seconds or so over 36k. I think thats pretty unrealistic.

 

[Robert5091]

"But not with a Giro in his legs."
Agree - Sky care only about TdF - biggest TV ad time of the year.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

I'd be surprised if Quintana fails to ride the TDF - I am not stressed about Quintana losing too much time in the ITT's to Froome, because we must remember that Froome's preparation for 2016 was also focused on the OLympics ITT - I'd expect some reduction in Froome's ITT performnces in 2017.

Absolutely, I expect him to TT like 2015.

I think he will be better. Consider the fact that Quintana lost 11 seconds in 2015 on 14k, that would transition to say, 25 seconds or so over 36k. I think thats pretty unrealistic.

Froome's TT form in 2016 was his best for two or three years - Has to be related to his focus on the Olympics TT in 2016 - Anyway, I'd be very surprised if Dumoulin doesn't target GC at the TDF - He can match Froome in the TT's, and seeing it's not a particularly mountainous route, then Dumoulin can podium if he's in form.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

https://twitter.com/Movistar_Team/status/792327020634054656

Don't know if it's a good or a bad news.

If they publish it, then it is good news.
They twit is showing like good news anyway.