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on3m@n@rmy said:
Good description of seeding Merckxx.
I concur!

I recall a decade ago when Indianapolis (then lead by Peyton Manning) had to play at New England a few times in a row. There was the same uproar about it being unfair. Until in the following seasons we found New England playing at Indy a few times. My point is that over time things balance out. I won't be at all surprised if next season, and after, we'll see the Patriots at the Broncos a few times. I haven't looked back at pre-PM Denver's schedule, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Patriots took a few trips there during those times.

As to players getting preferential treatment, that's how it is in all sports. Does it ruin the sport? Change the outcome of games? I don't think very much in football. A few plays here or there though, yes.

As to Harbaugh, there's a swell of 49er fans out there happy he's gone. Not because he was mean to idiot players and tough on them. That's a false impression. A lot of fans are upset that he didn't get rid of a few of them. While getting rid of other quality players. Not saying Kaeprnick is a bust, he's not. But in retrospect one has to wonder how Alex Smith would have continued on in that system he was playing so well in. There's also a perception that Harbaugh inherited a lot of the excellent players he had, and inherited a team that was just heading into very favorable salary cap numbers.

Which brings up Mike Singletary. While he didn't take them to the playoffs, he was a much better HC than Erickson and Nolan who preceded him, and drafted many of the players Harbaugh used. There's also talk that Singletary learned a lot as HC of SF and inside circles say he's very aware of the mistakes he made. The Fritz Pollard Alliance is high on Singletary, after Mike spent 2014 as a senior advisor to NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent, consulting on a variety of football matters. I seriously doubt the 49ers would bring him back, but is Singletary the next HC of the Chicago Bears? If I were the team I'd at the very least interview him, and seriously consider him as much as Rex Ryan or Mike Shanahan. Singletary's no-nonsense coaching style may be just what a sloppy Bears team needs.
 
Merckx index said:
Head-to-head only applies to three way ties if a team beat both of the other teams. Since Dallas, as you note, did not play GB, that tie-breaker rule doesn’t apply. That seems reasonable to me, because doing it your way, GB is third, though it didn’t play Dallas and might have won that game. You’re penalizing GB (and SE, which beat GB) because they didn’t happen to play Dallas. The fact that Dallas beat Seattle and Seattle beat GB doesn’t imply that GB would have lost to Dallas. There are numerous examples every year of team A beating team B which beats team C which beats team A (E.g., SF and AZ both beat DAL, which beat SE, which beat both SF and AZ twice; KC beat NE which beat Denver which beat KC 2x). Because of different styles, because they play at different times of the season when relative strengths are different, or just because of chance. And of course if GB had beaten Dallas, then Seattle’s victory over GB would have made it look much better vs. Dallas despite having lost to Dallas.
I know its unfair to give GB 3rd seed becuase they never played Dallas but it makes more sense than giving Dallas 3rd seed because of conference record. GB played the NFC South for christ sake while dallas the NFC best, of course they got a better conference record.

+ its stupid imo to have a tiebreaker system change depending on number of teams.
Use one tiebreaker system the whole way (points scored, SOS, h2h, whatever).

Its stupid to say to Dallas - you get the number 1 seed over Seattle, but if Green Bay beats Miami (2 teams you did not play that have nothing to do with you), then you have to go to Seattle:cool:

When the head-to-head doesn’t apply, it goes to conference (not division) record, which I think is reasonable. We’re trying to determine seeding just within the conference, so it’s logical to compare records against just conference opponents. Calling it like a coin flip is ironic; actually head-to-head is worse in that respect, because it’s just one game. Having a superior conference record is something established over many games. For this reason, I think conference record (or division record, as a tie-breaker for teams in the same division) is much fairer than head-to-head. If I were making the rules, I would begin with that.



Denver has played NE in Mass. several years in a row probably because of the way the schedule works. I don’t think a human being could create the NFL schedule without the help of a computer, there are so many factors that have to be balanced. For various reasons, it probably just hasn’t worked out that Denver could play NE at home without creating a problem elsewhere.

E.g., if you did that this year, then one of Denver’s other home games would have had to be moved to the road, and one of NE’s other road games moved to home. But then each of the opponents in those two games would have to have their schedule altered, necessitating home-road switches for them…You see the problem? Sometimes a series of consecutive matches between two teams has to be in the same city for several years in a row. It might happen that if Denver had played NE at home this year, one of its other opponents would have had to play them on the road for the 4th or 5th consecutive time. The complexity of the schedule just does not permit balancing to the degree that you want to see happen. It's particularly a problem with perennial division winners like Denver and NE because they play each other nearly every year (see below), which makes it harder to balance home and road.
The problem is 2012 to 2013. 2012 New England played Denver because the AFC E winner played the AFC W winner. New England got home

2013 New England played Denver because the AFC E winner played the AFC W winner. New England got home

How does that not rotate:confused:

Its very simple and doesn't require much change in other teams schedules.

Each year every team plays 1 other division in their conference and 1 team from each of the other 2 divisions (depending on finishing position).

In these matchups, each year each division has 4 home games vs 1 division and 4 away games vs the other.

So for example this year the entire NFC East played all 4 of their NFC North matchups away.
The Eagles went to GB
Cowboys went to Chicago
Giants to Detroit
Redskins to Minnesota.

In 2012
Denver went to NE
SD to New York
KC to Buffalo
Oakland to Miami.

Why did this not rotate for 2013. To make it fair those Winner vs winner, 2nd place vs 2nd place, 3rd place vs 3rd place games should rotate.
 
Jun 19, 2009
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Alpe d'Huez said:
I concur!
As to players getting preferential treatment, that's how it is in all sports. Does it ruin the sport? Change the outcome of games? I don't think very much in football. A few plays here or there though, yes.

As to Harbaugh, there's a swell of 49er fans out there happy he's gone. Not because he was mean to idiot players and tough on them. That's a false impression. A lot of fans are upset that he didn't get rid of a few of them. While getting rid of other quality players. Not saying Kaeprnick is a bust, he's not. But in retrospect one has to wonder how Alex Smith would have continued on in that system he was playing so well in. There's also a perception that Harbaugh inherited a lot of the excellent players he had, and inherited a team that was just heading into very favorable salary cap numbers.
Listening to former GB and Seahawks coach, Mike Holmgren yesterday. His comparison between the Seattle/SF fortunes centered on how cooperative and decisive the SEA management was regarding Percy Harvin. He was a problem and, money or not; he was gone. Message delivered to team who began to perform without the background distraction. Holmgren's opinion was that few team Owners or front office would have the courage to do that. Harbaugh clearly had players with serious off field problems that were never dealt with. The large share of blame for SF misfortune could be tied to that fact.

As for Cowboys "misfortune" on seeding...they could have another chance at beating Green Bay. Then we can see who they'd meet next.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
...Love to see Derek Carr selected as ROY. We shall see...
- I don't know about Carr [3270 yards, 58.1 %CMP, 21 TDs, 12 INT, passer rating 76.6, 38.4 total QB Rating]. Those are the best 2014 rookie QB stats for sure. But his passer rating of 76.6 and QBR of 38.4 compares to Russell Wilson's rookie passer rating and QBR of 100.0 and 71.7, respectively.
- But how about NYG WR Odell Beckham [91 catches, 132 targeted, 1305 yards (rank 10th), 108.8 YPG (rank 1st), 12 TDs]? By far the best rookie WR.... OR
- OAK LB Khalil Mack [TKL 59/16/75, 13 TFL, 4 Sacks, 1 FF, 3 PD]... OR
- STL DT Aaron Donald?

I would pick Carr ahead of Mack or Donald for sure. But I think I would put Odell ahead of Carr.
 
SEEDING:
In the NFL, almost any team can beat or upset another team on a given day. So head-to-head is not the best tie breaking rule. Consistency over the season is more important IMO when it comes to tie-breaking. So I will keep it simple. Below is the NFC playoff teams listed in order of seeding:

NFC
Division..........W....L....T......DIV......CONF
Leaders
Seahawks.....12....4.....0......5-1...... 10-2
Packers.........12....4.....0......5-1...... 9-3
Cowboys.......12....4.....0......4-2...... 8-4
Panthers.........7....8.....1......4-2....... 6-6

Wild Card
Cardinals......11.....5.....0......3-3...... 9-3
Lions............11.....5.....0.......5-1...... 9-3

So the 'Boys lost out based on having worse divisional and conference records than SEA and GB. Any questions, just consult the exhaustive NFL complete list of tie-breaking procedures.
 
Man. In the whatever-it-is bowl 6th ranked TCU Horned Frogs just TRUCKED 9th ranked Ole Miss 42-3. TCU's only loss I think was by about 3 points to Baylor. I'll bet this beat down is going to fuel talks of an expanded playoff format for next season.
 
The ironic thing about Dallas is that they were 8-0 on the road! This is part of the reason I like their chances against both Green Bay or Seattle, just as much as I do against Detroit, at home.

Holmegren is probably right, he knows Paul Allen well, and likely the entire Seahawk mindset as well as anyone, but hindsight is always 20/20. I'm sure Seattle would have loved to have traded Harvin in the off season, and kept Golden Tate.

I watched the Suh incident a few times now. I still think it was the second backwards step that got people upset, and Rodgers swatting at him indicating Suh was not paying attention and being negligent. But that's probably all it was, negligence at most. Not intentional. I mean, this wasn't the same as when he stomped on Dietrich Smith.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
The ironic thing about Dallas is that they were 8-0 on the road! This is part of the reason I like their chances against both Green Bay or Seattle, just as much as I do against Detroit, at home.

Holmegren is probably right, he knows Paul Allen well, and likely the entire Seahawk mindset as well as anyone, but hindsight is always 20/20. I'm sure Seattle would have loved to have traded Harvin in the off season, and kept Golden Tate.
Not only 8-0, one of those was in SEA. So if they get past GB they will have confidence playing in SEA. That's assuming they get by the Lions (I'm sure they are not assuming anything).

Agree on Golden Tate & Harvin. Interesting how some things work out when reality falls so far short of the expectations where Harvin is concerned. I remember NFL execs around the league saying its not fair SEA got Harvin. In the end, SEA really did not need him in the SB, and now his dead money with SEA could've been used to keep Tate. But as I said before, I'm just glad SEA did not try to stick it out with PH.
 
The Hitch said:
I know its unfair to give GB 3rd seed becuase they never played Dallas but it makes more sense than giving Dallas 3rd seed because of conference record. GB played the NFC South for christ sake while dallas the NFC best, of course they got a better conference record.
I pointed out in my post that teams that got to play the NFC South had a big advantage. Sure, that’s unfair. But there isn’t much one can do about that. We don’t know ahead of time which division is going to suck, and in fact, no one saw what was coming in the NFC South. They had two strong teams in 2013, and a few years ago, they were the strongest division in the NFL. Other than weighting wins and losses according to a strength of schedule factor, this is unavoidable.

+ its stupid imo to have a tiebreaker system change depending on number of teams.
Use one tiebreaker system the whole way (points scored, SOS, h2h, whatever).
The whole point of the system is that if one rule doesn’t separate, you have to go the second rule, and so on. But if you’re going to use head-to-head—and again, I’m against it—on three teams, you have to stipulate they all played each other. It doesn’t make any sense otherwise.

The problem is 2012 to 2013. 2012 New England played Denver because the AFC E winner played the AFC W winner. New England got home

2013 New England played Denver because the AFC E winner played the AFC W winner. New England got home

How does that not rotate:confused:

Its very simple and doesn't require much change in other teams schedules.

Each year every team plays 1 other division in their conference and 1 team from each of the other 2 divisions (depending on finishing position).

In these matchups, each year each division has 4 home games vs 1 division and 4 away games vs the other.

So for example this year the entire NFC East played all 4 of their NFC North matchups away.
The Eagles went to GB
Cowboys went to Chicago
Giants to Detroit
Redskins to Minnesota.

In 2012
Denver went to NE
SD to New York
KC to Buffalo
Oakland to Miami.

Why did this not rotate for 2013. To make it fair those Winner vs winner, 2nd place vs 2nd place, 3rd place vs 3rd place games should rotate.
Here are the AFC inter-divisional schedules for 2012 and 2013:

2012:

West vs. all of North, East vs. all of South
West at East
South at West
East at North
North at South

2013:

West vs. all of South, East vs. all of North
West at East
East at South
North at West
South at North

Yes, West played at East in both 2012 and 2013. Suppose there had been a rotation, and East played at West in 2013. Then, to balance, South would play at East in 2013, and to balance this, the other two home/road relationships would also have to be reversed, giving us:

East at West
South at East
West at North
North at South

But now North and South are not rotating, North is playing at South two years in a row. When you have all the teams in one division playing all the teams in another division, you are left with teams in each division playing an all home or all road series against teams in two other divisions. There are four divisions combining to make four series, with each division involved in two of these series.

It turns out that you can’t rotate all of those series. All you can do is make sure that the same home-road relationship doesn’t occur three times in a row. In fact, in 2014, East—which got to play West at home two years in a row—had to play South on the road for the second year in a row. What goes around comes around.

Of course, Denver also played NE on the road this year, but that was different. Each team in the West played each team in the East this year, with two on the road and two at home. In this case, other factors would have made it difficult for Denver to host NE.

Edit: Here’s a simple mathematical proof. Call the four divisions A,B,C,D. When all the teams in one division play all the teams in another division, indicate with a dash, e.g., A-B. When each team in one division plays one team in another division, indicate with >, with the second team the home team, e.g., A>C.

So suppose A-B and C-D in one year. A possible schedule for the other interdivisional games is:

A>C
D>A
B>D
C>B

The only other possibility is:

A>D
C>A
B>C
D>B

Now suppose in the following year we have A-C and B-D. One possible schedule is for the other games is:

A>B
D>A
C>D
B>C

Notice that per this schedule, D>A will occur for the second year in a row if the first possibility for the first year is used. OTOH, if the second possibility is used, B>C repeats. And if the other possible schedule is used for year 2:

A>D
B>A
D>C
C>B

Either C>B or A>D repeats.

The basic problem is that in year 1, A and B must have opposite home-away schedules vs. C and D, such that if D>A, then C>B. But in year 2, when A and B are not playing all each other’s teams, D>A must go with B>C.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Happy New Year to you all. :)

If one thing is still great about the NFL, it is their tie-breakers. It can´t get any better than that. The best of the best worldwide...

The tie-breakers don´t know which divisions will "suck" and which schedules are "soft" in a hindsight.

Given that teams don´t play all each other in a season like in soccer, if steps are not applicable in a 3-way-or-intra-divison-tie, the rules just go to the next lower step. It´s perfect.

The head-to-head (if applicable) is the best first step tie-breaker. There shall be no doubt about that. If there is one, just have a look at various european leagues or world Cup soccer (especially the 6-0 Peru game in 1978).

It´s so great, I took many ideas of the NFL tie-breaker rules into my GGTG. Simply because it´s the fairest...
 
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
Happy New Year to you all. :)

If one thing is still great about the NFL, it is their tie-breakers. It can´t get any better than that. The best of the best worldwide...

The head-to-head (if applicable) is the best first step tie-breaker. There shall be no doubt about that. If there is one, just have a look at various european leagues or world Cup soccer (especially the 6-0 Peru game in 1978).

It´s so great, I took many ideas of the NFL tie-breaker rules into my GGTG. Simply because it´s the fairest...
It is a pretty good system, and fair. Including this season where DAL & SEA both ended up the regular season with 12-4 W/L records, DAL beat SEA in SEA, yet SEA came away with the higher playoff seeding based on in-conference/division records (see my post above on seeding which came straight off the official NFL website). One way to describe it is the seeding process prevents one-day luck (e.g. in head to head) from being a bigger factor than overall consistency.
 
Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, one of my favorite college players, should be the first overall pick in the draft. Not only is he talented and understands pocket passing, but he can use his legs too if necessary. The thing I like MOST about him is he's humble.
 
on3m@n@rmy said:
Oregon QB Marcus Mariota....
What a superb night of football for him, and the Ducks overall. Watching the game I was thinking they could definitely beat Alabama. Then, with the way Alabama lost to OSU, I started thinking the way OSU was playing should make a great match-up against Oregon.

As to Mariota and the NFL, I can't see Tampa Bay not taking him first. If they don't, I can't see Tennessee not taking him. And his quiet demeanor would do fine in both of those organizations.

As to the NFL:

Ari@Car - Despite the poor record, the Panthers won 4 in a row at season's end, and are at home. Expect a low scoring game. The Panthers then get to fly to the abyss of Seattle, where their season ends. (As an aside, if the NFL did things right, this game would be Philadelphia traveling to Arizona. A much more interesting match-up).

Det@Dal - For no specific reason (though I've been wrong picking them all season), I'll go with the upset here.

Cin@Indy - Despite sketchy running and defense, the Colts have Luck, and can put up a lot of yards and points. This will be Marvin Lewis last game as a Bengals coach, and the team will struggle all off-season with the Andy Dalton issue (eg. his big contract).

Bal@Pit - Both teams have looked very good, and terrible at times this season. Both have veterans with playoff experience, and solid coaches. I'll go with the Steelers, who will then take on Denver, in a match-up I like.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
... Then, with the way Alabama lost to OSU, I started thinking the way OSU was playing should make a great match-up against Oregon.

Ari@Car - Despite the poor record, the Panthers won 4 in a row at season's end, and are at home. Expect a low scoring game. The Panthers then get to fly to the abyss of Seattle, where their season ends....

Det@Dal - For no specific reason (though I've been wrong picking them all season), I'll go with the upset here..
Yes, I think the UO - OSU matchup is intriguing. I think Ducks win if they can defend well enough.

I have not been in a picking mindset this year. But I will pick CAR over ARI, because of the panther's defense. With the cardinals health issues, that is not going out on a limb.

But I will supply a reason for DET to win vs DAL. Lions defense will handle the Cowboys run game, make Romo win with his arm, but get enough pressure on Romo to upset him just enough. Offensively for the Lions, Tate has a bit between his teeth and has big game with the attention Dallas puts on Calvin Johnson. Now that's a bit bold, but not far out on the limb.
 
on3m@n@rmy said:
Yes, I think the UO - OSU matchup is intriguing. I think Ducks win if they can defend well enough.

I have not been in a picking mindset this year. But I will pick CAR over ARI, because of the panther's defense. With the cardinals health issues, that is not going out on a limb.

But I will supply a reason for DET to win vs DAL. Lions defense will handle the Cowboys run game, make Romo win with his arm, but get enough pressure on Romo to upset him just enough. Offensively for the Lions, Tate has a bit between his teeth and has big game with the attention Dallas puts on Calvin Johnson. Now that's a bit bold, but not far out on the limb.
Last year at Detroit the cowboys were more worried about Bush than Calvin, so they opted to single cover him in parts of the game. Result: 329 yards and a td.:cool:

The Lions biggest weakness is their offensive line. But if Stafford gets a little time, it could get interesting.

Taiwanese Animators seem to have a unique take on the matchup::D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQV4HISN5LI&feature=youtu.be
 
Jun 19, 2009
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on3m@n@rmy said:
Not only 8-0, one of those was in SEA. So if they get past GB they will have confidence playing in SEA. That's assuming they get by the Lions (I'm sure they are not assuming anything).

Agree on Golden Tate & Harvin. Interesting how some things work out when reality falls so far short of the expectations where Harvin is concerned. I remember NFL execs around the league saying its not fair SEA got Harvin. In the end, SEA really did not need him in the SB, and now his dead money with SEA could've been used to keep Tate. But as I said before, I'm just glad SEA did not try to stick it out with PH.
Dallas hit Seattle at their low point. Seattle's victory over Green Bay and Denver were also relatively irrelevant to the type of ball they've been playing lately and, except for the media needing fodder to hype upcoming matchups I don't see either team beating SEA.

Yesterday's college games were an overwhelming backhand to the SEC and ACC. East coast writers are still struggling to reconcile that the Pac 12 and Big 10 kicked everyone to the curb. Baylor's fans shouldn't be coming out from their funk basements for another season after dissing the matchup with Mich St. I also enjoyed the Jameis Winston post-game fantasy dialogue: "Furreal...anyone watching knows we made a couple of mistakes...it could have gone either way." Take away his 3 mistakes and they still took a beatdown from a team the press characterized as a trickster type speed team. Love that and will look forward the January 12 where the Pac 12 will finalize their credibility.
 
Though I like Mariota, and hope he succeeds, the NFL should have learned from RGIII that mobile QBs have a problem in the pros. And really, what does Mariota have that RG doesn't/didn't have? Griffin is or was faster with a stronger arm. Same with Newton, who's doing pretty well now, but certainly not in the category of Luck, who appears to be a year or two shy of joining the elite in the NFL.

And I'm a contrarian on Baylor and Winston. Baylor built a 20 point lead vs. MSU, then lost the game by one point. The way everyone is dissing Baylor, you'd think MSU was chopped liver. Hello, they lost only two games all year, to...Oregon and OSU, the national championship finalists. Why is it embarrassing to lose, barely, to a team like that? How good must Baylor be to build a big lead over them? If they had blown a 4th quarter lead over Alabama, everyone would have been talking about how good they were to make it close.

As for Winston, I give him credit for not hiding his head in shame, but speaking to the media, even answering questions about that flop fumble. And while Oregon was unstoppable in the second half, as usual, those turnovers did make a huge difference. FSU gained over 500 yards, about 350 passing, it's not like they were exactly shut down by Oregon. Take away the turnovers, and Oregon still almost certainly wins, but it could have been a shootout with FSU not out of it until fairly late in the game.

Can anyone beat Seattle? Not likely, but two teams have an outside shot IMO. One would be Dallas, which is 8-0 on the road, won in SE earlier this year, and won't be intimidated about going there. But for that to happen, they will not only have to win the WC game, but beat the Packers in GB. A tough schedule.

The other team? Don't laugh--Carolina. Everyone's talking about Seattle's six game win streak, in which they've held teams to 200 yards and less than 7 points per game. Well, Carolina has a four game win streak, in which they've held opponents to 280 yards and 12 points a game. Yes, weak opposition, but in retrospect, Seattle's four games vs. AZ and SF were not very testing, either. Carolina played SE very tough this year and last year, both games won by SE by less than a TD. Their defense at its best is almost as good as Seattle's.

If Dallas beats Detroit, and I expect them to, and Carolina beats AZ, another prediction, the Panthers go to Seattle. If they can hold the Hawks to 20 points, it could be an interesting game. Hard to see their offense moving the ball much, but their defense can keep it close.

Other predictions: Cincy over Indy, Pitt over Baltimore. Cincy is very hard to predict, depends so much on Dalton, but I think their defense will do a decent job against Luck.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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ARI @ CAR - It's bizarre how looking at the respective records of these two teams misrepresents where they're at right now. The beat up Cards don't look up to beating a team on a roll of late success. I saw the last Panther's game and was pretty impressed.

DET @ DAL - I shouldn't get fooled again, especially since the Cowboys and Romo have declined numerous potential choke situations, and pretty much gone from strength to strength. By the law of averages, they must be due a classic 4th quarter choke. I just don't believe it against these Lions, whose record flatters them.

CIN @ IND - Luck should make the difference, and I fully expect him to.

BAL @ PIT - Naturally, my heart will rule my head as I pick the Ravens, who will probably lose. They've been very disappointing this season, and have squeaked a lot of their wins, while the Steelers have been solid at home.
 
on3m@n@rmy said:
But I will supply a reason for DET to win vs DAL. Lions defense will handle the Cowboys run game, make Romo win with his arm, but get enough pressure on Romo to upset him just enough. Offensively for the Lions, Tate has a bit between his teeth and has big game with the attention Dallas puts on Calvin Johnson. Now that's a bit bold, but not far out on the limb.
No, it's not. And with everyone expecting Dallas to win, I like Detroit's chances. Not guaranteeing an upset, just that it wouldn't surprise me.

Oldman said:
East coast writers are still struggling to reconcile that the Pac 12 and Big 10 kicked everyone to the curb.
You should try living out here (while being from there).

Merckx index said:
And really, what does Mariota have that RG doesn't/didn't have?
An even temperament. No sense of entitlement. All the issues that made RG3 seem a head case, no one has seen from Mariota.
Certainly not in the category of Luck, who appears to be a year or two shy of joining the elite in the NFL.
That I agree with. But Luck is already there. He's carrying the Colts on his arm. He still makes mistakes and too many bad throws, but he's a top 10 QB right now. Arguably a top 5.

FSU gained over 500 yards, about 350 passing, it's not like they were exactly shut down by Oregon. Take away the turnovers, and Oregon still almost certainly wins, but it could have been a shootout...
They beat them by 39 points. Thirty-nine points! Nearly tripled them up in score. I don't care what turnovers FSU made, they were on their way to losing by double digits.
Can anyone beat Seattle? Not likely, but two teams have an outside shot IMO. One would be Dallas, which is 8-0 on the road...The other team? Don't laugh--Carolina.
I wouldn't laugh at that, and agree with your point. I would pick Seattle to win such a matchup, but not to blow them out. It would be one of those 23-16 wins.

In other news, the forecast for Pittsburgh tomorrow is calling for near constant cold rain all day, with the heaviest amounts about the time of kickoff. Heinz field already has what's considered one of the worst fields in the NFL, and conditions like this often takes long throws and QBs out of the game and turns things into trench warfare, with a lot of straight runs between the hash marks, and no field goals over about 20 yards. We could easily see a 9-7 game here.
 
The problem with Detroit is their points and performances suggests they kind of overperformed record wise.

First of all they lost to every playoff team they played. The only win they had against a playoff team was the week 2 win against GB which was easily their most impressive game of the season.

All their other wins came against teams that aren't in the playoffs. In fact against teams that didn't have a winning record. Also every team they beat had a losing record going in to their game against Detroit.

But secondly and most importantly, many of their wins were far from inspiring and really close toss ups that could have gone either way.
New Orleans by 1 point (at home).
Atlanta by 1 point in a neutral venue. And that shouldn't even have been a win since prater missed the field goal.
Minnesota by 2 points at home. Vikings missed a fg to win
Dolphins by 4 points thanks to a 3rd and 4 conversion in the final minutes.

On the other hand many of the games they lost they got completely blown out of the water.
By 17 points at Carolina.
25 points to the Pats.
10 points to a GB with an injured Rodgers.
They also were pretty comfortably beaten in a defensive by an Arizona team that was already on the downward spiral.

By DVOA they are a mid pack team and that doesn't take into account the schedule.

Can they beat the Cowboys. Sure anything can happen in the playoffs, as NYG showed. But 1 win seems to me to be the ceiling of this Detroit team.

On paper they have a lot of talent with the top defense and Calvin and Tate on offense. Maybe they take advantage of the Cowboys secondary.

But their luck is going to run out at some point, and I also think unless some people step up, next year theyll be falling back down to earth
 
@ToreBear- good point on Lions OL. In fact, the OL situation for both teams, with Dallas having the better one, and Dallas D-line playing pretty well made me hesitate a bit before picking DET.

@oldman- very true SEA was at a low point on October 12 when they played DAL, which was before they traded the malcontent disrupter to the Jets on Oct 18. Around that time was also when SEA was starting 2nd & 3rd stringers on the OL at THREE positions (LT, LG, & C). So offensively they were in a funk.

@Merckxx- I'm for sure not laughing about the Panthers chances in SEA. That is a pretty scary defense they have. I'm not too concerned though about Hawks D stopping their offense.

And props to Winston for not hanging his head as you said. And also for sticking around on the field after time expired to congratulate Oregon players. I can't say that about the many of the Noles players, who made a quick exit without congratulating Oregon players. BUT I can't blame FSU players for that if they were just p!ssed off over Oregon PLAYERS's demeaning chants of "No means no" to the tune of the tomahawk chant in reference to Winston's off-field issue. That was a total classless action by a few Oregon players. The fact that Winston stuck around to offer congratulations in spite of some Oregon player's behavior shows class on the part of Winston.

Towards the end of the game I was disappointed to see FSU apparently give up, but perhaps they were just exhausted.
 
Also lol at how Marshall Yanda got first team all pro despite being caught doping during this season and serving a suspension:eek:

Not that I think others are clean, just find it funny that in the NFL even testing positive is pretty much forgotten and ignored 5 minutes after it happens.

Edit: fail on my part.
 

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