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great rant foxy! A+ would read again.

I saw all 4 games on the weekend, a rare treat for me.

Really enjoyed the Pats v Ravens, that first Ravens drive was a thing of beauty, infact the first couple were great, I really thought the Pats were toast, but they never gave up and kudos to them for winning.

How they will go next week and the week after with no running attack though, that's gotta be a huge question mark over them.

Peyton, he has to go doesn't he?

His body couldn't stand up to this year's torment, I'm not sure it could handle another year. And Foxxxy, I'm not sure if you noticed, but he really got a free ride from the commentators, there was one specific moment where, on 3rd down the Broncos needed about 5 yards, he was in the clear with no one in sight, could have walked for a 1st down instead he wobbled one down the field which was incomplete.

Cris Collinsworth mentioned it briefly but then shutdown completely about it, perhaps I've got a touch of "Foxxy's curse" but to me, if that had been anyone else it would have got the slow-mo replay treatment, including them drawing lines on the screen saying stuff like

"here's peyton here, and here's where he has to get to to get a 1st down, and see? the nearest defender is "here", "here", "here"

instead they glossed over it. But it was at a crucial point of the game where the broncos really couldn't afford to give the ball back to the Colts.

Packers: Huge question mark over Rodgers, I think the Seahawks will really make them pay.

Colts v Patriots - Brady will run rampant over the Colts secondary, but Luck could do the same to the Patriots, I think this will be the most entertaining of the next 2 games.

But I can't see anyone touching the Seahawks, it's all coming together for them at the right time.
 
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leftover pie said:
great rant foxy! A+ would read again.
Thank you too. :)

leftover pie said:
And Foxxxy, I'm not sure if you noticed, but he really got a free ride from the commentators, there was one specific moment where, on 3rd down the Broncos needed about 5 yards, he was in the clear with no one in sight, could have walked for a 1st down instead he wobbled one down the field which was incomplete.

Cris Collinsworth mentioned it briefly but then shutdown completely about it, perhaps I've got a touch of "Foxxy's curse" but to me, if that had been anyone else it would have got the slow-mo replay treatment, including them drawing lines on the screen saying stuff like

"here's peyton here, and here's where he has to get to to get a 1st down, and see? the nearest defender is "here", "here", "here"

instead they glossed over it. But it was at a crucial point of the game where the broncos really couldn't afford to give the ball back to the Colts.
Thanks for that details...

Hero worshipping at its "best". Don´t touch the god. He can´t be wrong... Another reason why mega greedy PM and his little siz got rich (not only trou huge contracts, but commercials and to be paid for autographs too). Because the folk believes the hype. After they got throned, they are untouchables, even if the Ints (Siz) or playoff meltdowns (PM) reach absurd highs.

Our place was packed, thus no commentator got to my ears (the reason could be the countless beers also ;))...

I pretty much remember that I started chanting "Osweiler, Osweiler" in the 2nd quarter. In the 4th quarter this one pretty much was the joke of the evening, as others joined the chorus. A night to remember as expected (see "tonight is the night" :D).
 
Jun 19, 2009
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FoxxyBrown1111 said:
Thank you too. :)



Thanks for that details...

Hero worshipping at its "best". Don´t touch the god. He can´t be wrong... Another reason why mega greedy PM and his little siz got rich (not only trou huge contracts, but commercials and to be paid for autographs too). Because the folk believes the hype. After they got throned, they are untouchables, even if the Ints (Siz) or playoff meltdowns (PM) reach absurd highs.

Our place was packed, thus no commentator got to my ears (the reason could be the countless beers also ;))...

I pretty much remember that I started chanting "Osweiler, Osweiler" in the 2nd quarter. In the 4th quarter this one pretty much was the joke of the evening, as others joined the chorus. A night to remember as expected (see "tonight is the night" :D).
How about Elway's future? He pretty much took credit for building this machine an the Collinsworth interview. Ever the humble dude....
So Fox becomes the first scapegoat? That seem fair?
 
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Oldman said:
How about Elway's future? He pretty much took credit for building this machine an the Collinsworth interview. Ever the humble dude....
So Fox becomes the first scapegoat? That seem fair?
If his highness decides to play on (and thus facing another humiliation in the next playoffs), a lot more scapegoats will follow... Yeah, Fox was the first. I mean you can´t fire the whole Defense (which finished 1st !! against the pass, going by efficiency). And this D did pretty good, holding almost 5.000 yard passer Luck to 24 points. Maybe fire some receivers... I mean they didn´t got open enough... Or fire the scoreboard keeper. He certainly disrupted PMs rhythm last night... Or how about firing the owner? Maybe PMs contract was not enough motivation for him to deliver in the playoffs. It can be everything, but not that the lord is a plain and clear choke artist.

Sarcasm off: Fire PM (if he doesn´t retire) and start all over again. Elway shall admit that it was a mistake to sign PM. A QB who has a worse record and passer rating in the playoffs than Tim Tebow. The guy who couldn´t heave the ball further than you, Alpe, Merckxindex or I. :eek:
 
Foxxy, you're gonna love this. The SizTM is the most clutch QB ever.

Below, I’ve listed the records for the top and bottom quarterbacks, along with those who have been active in this year’s playoffs or who have been a principal quarterback at least 10 times in the postseason. I’ve also listed each quarterback’s projected record based on Elo. Finally, I’ve listed the result of a set of 25,000 simulations of each quarterback’s postseason career where QBs were randomly assigned wins and losses based on the probabilities established by Elo. I counted up how often the simulated quarterback bettered the actual quarterback’s win total, giving half-credit to cases where they finished with the same record.

By this measure, the most clutch postseason QB of all time is Manning — Eli Manning. His New York Giants have often been underdogs in the postseason and projected to a record of 4-7 or perhaps 5-6 in his 11 games. Instead, Eli Manning’s teams have gone 8-3. According to the simulations, there’s just a 1 percent chance of achieving such a strong record based on chance alone.
As compared with the record projected by Elo, [Peyton Manning’s] postseason record ranks 161st out of the 180 QBs in our sample. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 games in the database, only Warren Moon and Randall Cunningham rank lower.

But this is a somewhat ridiculous list...

Here’s the problem: This way of thinking about quarterbacks forces them to compete against themselves. Sure, the Patriots have often been favored to win their postseason games. But a lot of that is because Brady is their quarterback. How might the Pats have expected to do with a replacement-level QB instead?...

I calculate these estimates based on a quarterback’s adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), a metric that accounts for yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions and sacks — basically it’s a better version of the NFL’s passer rating. A replacement-level quarterback typically posts an ANY/A at about 80 percent of the league average, so a QB gets credit for any performance above and beyond that.1 I then translate this into points added or subtracted in the regular season2 and translate points into a team’s Elo rating to evaluate the impact the QB had on his team overall…

The principle is simply that the better the quarterback, the more his team would be harmed by removing him...

We can rerun the numbers for all 180 playoff quarterbacks, comparing each QB’s actual record against the simulated one achieved by replacement-level QBs against the same schedule. By this measure, Peyton Manning moves up to 28th on the postseason list; there’s only about a 10 percent chance that a replacement-level QB could have equalled or bettered his 11-13 record.

Eli Manning remains No. 1 overall, but this time in a photo finish over Joe Montana and Kurt Warner. Flacco still rates highly, in fourth place. Brady moves up to No. 6, right behind John Elway. Brett Favre advances to 19th from 78th. While there’s still a Dilfer and a Hostetler here and there, it’s a much better list of quarterbacks.
So PM has been better than a replacement QB in the post-season. Well, that's a relief to know.

Some of this analysis I find interesting, but when you consider post-season results, you're always handicapped by small sample size, and particularly for someone like Eli, who hasn't been in the post-season that much.

The problem with the torn quad explanation is that it happened in the 14th RS game, but I'm pretty sure PM's poor showings began a few games before that. It might have contributed to his game vs. Indy--especially the inability to throw deep--but not sure that's the whole explanation. He is at the age where you expect a decline.

Looking forward to Sunday's games, hard to see the home team favorites losing. I'd love to see Luck and Indy send Brady and NE home, but I doubt it. But a SB between SE and NE could be epic, if anyone can figure out a way to move the ball vs. that defense, it would be Belichick. And if Indy somehow prevails, they might have a puncher's chance vs. SE. If any QB can rattle that secondary, it would be Luck. Remember, when the two teams met in 2013, Indy won.

Really, how can we lose?

SE vs. NE (two best teams)
GB vs. NE (two best QBs; the RS this year was first time they met as starters)
SE vs. Indy (two best young QBs)
GB vs. Indy (the best QB, maybe, vs. the heir apparent)
 
Jun 19, 2009
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Merckx index said:
Foxxy, you're gonna love this. The SizTM is the most clutch QB ever.


Really, how can we lose?


SE vs. NE (two best teams)
GB vs. NE (two best QBs; the RS this year was first time they met as starters)
SE vs. Indy (two best young QBs)
GB vs. Indy (the best QB, maybe, vs. the heir apparent)
You are so right. This is the best pool of candidates for great games in some time. Hope they all play up to potential and am disappointed that Aaron is limited in any way. Would be a shame that were any questions to the outcome of the NFC based on "should/could-ofs".
 
I agree with that. We can't lose. Any match-up looks good at this point. Though indeed the most epic would be Seattle-New England. Green Bay vs. Indianapolis is intriguing to me and I'd kind of like to see that most of all.

Regarding Aaron Rodgers, if I didn't know any better, my guess would be that he tried to go a half without any pain killers or numbing agents for the calf, as you could see him hobbling at times. But in the second half, he seemed more mobile, so they may have juiced him (something legal I imagine) at the half. Either way, he was absolutely on fire as the game went on. 9 for 9 in the fourth quarter. People can talk about the catch/no catch by Bryant. But there was plenty of time left at that point, and no indication the Cowboys were stopping him.

There's been a lot of scuttlebutt that John Fox was fired to make room for Adam Gase to be the Bronco HC, as Gase and Manning developed that offense. But sources say not so fast, and Gase could be gone as well. Either way you look at it Denver looks like a tough future awaits, and PM looks done. A lot of money, a lot of hype, and some seriously disappointing playoff losses in the 3 years with PM. If I read the contract info correct, after July 1st the Broncos can release Manning and only owe him $2.5 mil, instead of $20m.

That link to Eli being the best post-season QB ever is an apologists dream.

Just a mention to the NCAA championship. What a great win for OSU. While I'm from Oregon, I was happy for the Buckeyes. They were written off more than once in the season, had a great game plan last night, and despite turning the ball over too much, they stuck to their plan, and were superbly coached by Meyer. Great win.
 
Jul 16, 2011
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leftover pie said:
His body couldn't stand up to this year's torment, I'm not sure it could handle another year. And Foxxxy, I'm not sure if you noticed, but he really got a free ride from the commentators, there was one specific moment where, on 3rd down the Broncos needed about 5 yards, he was in the clear with no one in sight, could have walked for a 1st down instead he wobbled one down the field which was incomplete.
This was the play that maybe struck me the most in all the game (apart from the punt "fumble", more on that later). OK he might have had a quad injury, but it didn't look like he was moving that badly for an over the hill QB. One thing that PM was often praised for was his decision making. That throw was a complete disaster from that point of view.

The commentators praised the Indy defense for their aggressive coverage of the Denver receivers on short routes. Well, when the opposing QB misses nearly all of his medium/long passes, what are they supposed to do? Even though I've always been a proponent of PM, it's clearly time to go.

Being a Cowboys fan, I can't go without a rant about the Bryant call, but with the disclaimer that Dallas didn't deserve to win and probably wouldn't have won even the call had gone their way (Alpe says it all directly above).

Here's the rule from

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/complex-process-catch-not-only-rued-nfl-rule-235922471--nfl.html

''If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass (with or without contact by an opponent), he must maintain control of the ball throughout the process of contacting the ground, whether in the field of play or the end zone. If he loses control of the ball, and the ball touches the ground before he regains control, the pass is incomplete. If he regains control prior to the ball touching the ground, the pass is complete.''

I can see how someone can call the pass incomplete, but the key for me is in the first clause. From the replay, Bryant first bobbles the ball before it settles in both hands. At this point, Bryant takes the ball in one hand to try and reach the goal line. My interpretation would be that once Bryant had transferred the ball to one hand the act of catching the pass was over and Bryant was attempting a "football move". I know the consequences of the calls are different, but compared to the Indy punt return "fumble", I can't see how it was called "down by contact" when there is really no sign that the returner ever had any control over the ball. Still, Denver had even less reason to grumble about one call than Dallas.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Tank Engine said:
Here's the rule from

''If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass (with or without contact by an opponent), he must maintain control of the ball throughout the process of contacting the ground, whether in the field of play or the end zone. If he loses control of the ball, and the ball touches the ground before he regains control, the pass is incomplete. If he regains control prior to the ball touching the ground, the pass is complete.''
NFL ever expanding rule book gibberish...

You know what? In the good ol times (until circa 2000) it was like "A catch is a catch"... Common sense was enough. Still applies for me: I know a catch if I see one. And that Bryant one was a CLEAR CATCH (by common sense rule).

Cowboys got robbed. I just arrived with my first two beers going down my throat, and saw that stupid reversal call. I instantly got the feeling my decision to quit on the NFL was the right one (even though I did it for other reasons).

Anyway, while I´ll skip the coming (NFL) weekend, I´ll have a look at the Superbowl (for the sake of tradition).
 
Jets have hired Arizona DC Todd Bowles as their new HC. This is about the fifth defensive minded coach in a row for the team.

I'm calling right now Mark Sanchez ends up a Buffalo Bill next season .

As to the Cowboys getting screwed, keep a few things in mind. The real back breaker was Murray being stripped of the ball by Peppers. Also, as I said before, Dallas was powerless to stop Rodgers and the Packer offense in the 4th quarter. That's too many "if's" to me to say Dallas was screwed overall.

As the the rule versus common sense, that I agree with. Same with Calvin Johnson's catch a couple years back. It's as dumb as the tuck rule. In fact it's fairly new, regardless of when the rule was defined. If you go back to Suoer Bowl XXI, the Cowboys broke the game open on a Butch Johnson TD that would definitely be overturned today. See it here in these highlights.
 
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Alpe d'Huez said:
As the the rule versus common sense, that I agree with. Same with Calvin Johnson's catch a couple years back. It's as dumb as the tuck rule. In fact it's fairly new, regardless of when the rule was defined. If you go back to Suoer Bowl XXI, the Cowboys broke the game open on a Butch Johnson TD that would definitely be overturned today. See it here in these highlights.
Oh yes that Calvin Johnson one. I remember very well... A catch as a catch can be! But not by umpires interpreting the NFL rule book of nowadays: page 1281, § 33, vers 5 in combination with rule XXIII of the guidance-to-rules-book page 12.613, § 77 and 96, chapters 6 and 9... What a farce.

Tuck rule. Oh my, what a nonsense. The same BS, different page. Before it, a fumble was a fumble as a catch was a catch...
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
Jets have hired Arizona DC Todd Bowles as their new HC. This is about the fifth defensive minded coach in a row for the team.

I'm calling right now Mark Sanchez ends up a Buffalo Bill next season .

As to the Cowboys getting screwed, keep a few things in mind. The real back breaker was Murray being stripped of the ball by Peppers. Also, as I said before, Dallas was powerless to stop Rodgers and the Packer offense in the 4th quarter. That's too many "if's" to me to say Dallas was screwed overall.

As the the rule versus common sense, that I agree with. Same with Calvin Johnson's catch a couple years back. It's as dumb as the tuck rule. In fact it's fairly new, regardless of when the rule was defined. If you go back to Suoer Bowl XXI, the Cowboys broke the game open on a Butch Johnson TD that would definitely be overturned today. See it here in these highlights.
you got that right. Also the missed FG. If DAL makes that FG, then a FG at the end could have won it.

But my big take on the Dez and DAL got screwed talk, is that the player should know the friggin' rules. SO receiver Dez should have kept 2 hands on the ball to secure posession instead of risking losing posession by stretching the ball out there with one arm. Then if he does not get the TD, there was still 2+ minutes on the game clock during which DAL could have punched it in. In the end, what Dez did was not a smart move, and was maybe a bit selfish (some of those cats can really be like that, but only his teammates would know).
 
Yeah, but that's going against normal human instincts. He's going to try to score, period. Any player would. That's what makes it so screwy.

Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota declared for the draft. We'll know more at the Combine and his Pro Day, but I'll say what I did before, he lacks pocket presence you see in NFL quarterbacks, and needs development. I'd take him in the 2nd round if I needed a QB. But QBs are at a premium, and he and Winston seem it. For next year too maybe. So it still won't surprise me if he and Winston go 1-2 in the draft.
 
Raiders hired Jack Del Rio today, and I'm okay with that. He brings a lot of experience with some tough seasons in Jacksonville at HC, and some winning in Denver as DC. I like the Raiders chances in the years to come.

49ers promoted Jim Tomsula to HC. Uh, strange pick to me. Leapfrogged over several others. I'm worried he will be a puppet for the front office.

Cowboys gave a nice extension to Jason Garrett, which I think is a good call.

Finally, Rex Ryan gave a spirited press conference today saying the Bills would be the bully of the NFL. It was kind of comical, but Rex is kind of comical, and I imagine the players will like him, especially on defense. But they really need help on offense.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
Yeah, but that's going against normal human instincts. He's going to try to score, period. Any player would. That's what makes it so screwy.
Well, I get that. Certainly as coach I would not scold a player for being aggressive. But I would instruct. I mean, it is all about keeping possession of the ball. He does that, they get the first down, they score, they likely win. I bet if asked, in hindsight Dez would admit it would have been better to maintain possession.


Alpe d'Huez said:
Raiders hired Jack Del Rio today, and I'm okay with that. He brings a lot of experience with some tough seasons in Jacksonville at HC, and some winning in Denver as DC. I like the Raiders chances in the years to come.

49ers promoted Jim Tomsula to HC. Uh, strange pick to me. Leapfrogged over several others. I'm worried he will be a puppet for the front office.
I felt the same about both. I think Del Rio's a good choice. Tomsula was an interim HC for a bit, and my guess he's a players coach who can hold things together. But I think there were some other choices that would have been better based on experience.

Back on Peyton; I'm not sure why some are being so critical of his play. Obviously the performance was not there, and it was odd, like did Manning just really do that? We now know he had a quad injury the last 3-1/2 games. A bad quad injury just plain hurts to do anything. When I found out about the injury, I was surprised / impressed he was able to conceal the fact he was injured that badly for so long. But did the injury really impact his play? Well, looking at his stats below for the first 14 RS games and the final 3 games indicates pretty clearly that the injury effected his play:

Games...CMP%.....YPP.....TD.......INT......QBR.......RAT
1st 14......68.36......8.30.....2.64.....0.79.....75.7.....108.74
Last 3......58.97......6.35.....1.00.....1.33.....41.83.....72.47

And if you do the stats on the stats, you find the increases and decreases in the categories are outside one standard deviation, which is significant (e.g. one sigma of 20 on the QBR brings the low of the first 14 games down to 55, which is still higher than the 41.8 QBR of the last 3 games). [note of interest: the YPP of the playoff game was a measly 4.59.] So, yeah that injury effected how well he played.

Then, if you look at how he played in the first 8 games it was like PM of old. I mean, in SEA he marched his team down and tied the game in the final seconds of regulation. In Seattle. That is not an easy task. So he still had it then. I don't see why he cannot recapture that IF HE WANTS TO CONTINUE PLAYING. And there is no certainty of him continuing; considering the injury, rehab, getting prepared for another kick at the cat next year, and then facing a new coaching regime. But if he is good with the coaching changes bound to come, then what it all comes down to as far as his continuing is heart. So it will be interesting to see what he decides in another month or two.

Here is a link talking more about this whole subject: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/peyton-manning-isnt-finished/
 
Tricycle Rider said:
Heads up!

Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota coming your way from the college level.

Any takers?
Well, many teams won't need help in that department, but quite a few do.

Was listening to Mike Mayock's insights on both players today. I respect his input a lot. Mike said the positives about Marcus were humility, no baggage, work ethic, will show up to training facilities early and leave late, athleticism, will go through progressions. Negatives on Marcus: a bit inaccurate at times, inconsistent, lack of pocket awareness (does not climb the pocket well to buy time and allow things too open up), unfamiliarity with pro style offenses. To that unfamiliarity, Mayock added you can't really knock a kid for something he has not been taught or exposed to.

On Jameis, Mike said the positives were athleticism, accuracy, touch, he does all the throws, decision-making, he climbs the pocket very well, familiarity with pro style offenses. All that meaning he is much more pro-ready than Mariota. The negative on Jameis being maturity.

Then I heard Phil Simms say today on NFL network that hands down with a first overall draft pick that he would take Winston. That raised some eyebrows on the panel with Boomer questioning that choice.

Whoever selects these two will have some concerns over their weaknesses. In Mariota you just hope he can learn quickly, but you don't have the character concerns. Winston is almost Mariota's alter ego... pro-ready but with potential character issues.
 
Tricycle Rider said:
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota coming your way from the college level. Any takers?
We talked about this a few times over the last week. As I noted before, we'll know more at the Combine and Pro Days. I'd take either in the 2nd round if I needed a QB. But QBs are at a premium, for next year too maybe. So it still won't surprise me if Winston and Mariota go 1-2 in the draft, as both TB and Tenn really could use a QB, and someone to fill seats.

Meanwhile, rumors are that the Raiders are trying to hire Marc Trestman as their new OC. Talk is Cleveland likes him too. If I were Marc I'd go to Oakland. You get to work with Carr instead of having to deal with Manziel, the weather is better, and the town familiar. For those who weren't sure, Marc was the Raiders QB coach under Gruden, and OC under Callahan during the Rich Gannon-Tim Brown years. The Raiders are also looking at Mike Smith as DC. This is interesting in that while Smith was a valued defensive mind, the Falcons defense has been weak in recent years. If these two do go to Oakland, it would give the Raiders one of the most seasoned and experienced staffs in the NFL, right as the team builds.
 
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Alpe d'Huez said:
We talked about this a few times over the last week. As I noted before, we'll know more at the Combine and Pro Days. I'd take either in the 2nd round if I needed a QB. But QBs are at a premium, for next year too maybe. So it still won't surprise me if Winston and Mariota go 1-2 in the draft, as both TB and Tenn really could use a QB, and someone to fill seats.

.
Cardale Jones made an extremely articulate and brief acknowledgement
that he'll return to college. This guy could be much better than the candidates above and he made his decision on his own future merit with no guarantees. Class, class act.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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GB @ SEA - I'm pretty sure that the Hawks will win this, but since my SB teams are GB and NE, that's what I'm going with. Hopefully ARod will have some mobility.

IND @ NE - Again, I don't make the Pats a nailed on cert, but I can't help but feel that Indy are punching just a tad above their weight. By foxxy's theory, the Colts look like the dark horse to make it all the way, but I can't bring myself to believe in them.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Oh thanks god am out of that...
I mean it annoys me heavily to see the game book only... 4th-1 1yL = FG, 4th-1 1yL = FG, 4th-1, inside the "maroon zone" = FG.

WOW, what a COWARD. Don´t need to see any footage. The man to blame is McCarthy. No one else. Watta big big phuck...

Imagine I would have seen that game: Today was the time for a heart attack. No doubt about that. Not coz the wrong team won (which did, turning the ball over 5 times, including FOUR ints by future billionaire for nothing got lucky lotto winner), but because I could do that phucking job: Being a coward football coach. But I´d be happy to do it for 1/100 of the money this COWARD gets for failing again and again. He single handedly threw the season away. :mad:

-----

Good job Beli-Cheat. But bad news is: Won´t win with no receivers vs SEA. Anyway. Awesome to do it year in year out: Winning with average talent on at least one side of the team. Respect. Great coach... Best ever. GOAT!
 

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