National Football League

[Nomad]

You just keep firing coaches, GMs, others, as soon as they underperform you end up with a rotten culture, a culture of fear, and the result is constant losing. Look at Carolina and David Tepper, or Daniel Snyder and Washington before him. What did an insider say it was like working for Tepper in Carolina? "The Hunger Games".

Houston kept firing coaches every year over a period of 4 yrs (2020-23: Crennell/Culley/Lovie Smith) before they got it right with Ryans. Lol

However, I would submit that it's not so much the hiring of Ryans that turned the team around, but the drafting of C.J. Stroud with the #2 OA. A legitimate rookie of the year candidate, he has by & far exceeded expectations for a first year starter. Not only did they achieve 10 wins & win the division, but he's won a playoff game already! He has more than earned that big rookie contract & signing bonus.

Arguably he could have been the #1 OA. His skill set is exemplary & he's quickly adjusted to the speed of the pro game. And his maturity & leadership skills for a 22 yr old is unbelievable. You should see some of the pep talks he gives in the locker room.

Ryans is sitting pretty & happy as a lark because of Stroud. Ownership is sitting smug in their luxury suite knowing they're getting a great return so far on their investment.

All is well & good in the league when the QB performs up to expectations.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Not arguably about CJ. He most certainly should have been #1 overall. While Bryce Young is on a terrible team, a terrible organization, he showed almost nothing all season. Mostly moved around in the pocket, looked for checkdowns, and about half his passes looked sketchy, all year.

Contrast that with some other 1st rounders drafted over the last several years & look at their postseason record in their first four (4) yrs of starting (and how good they've made their HC look!).

Mahomes (10) 8-3
Burrow (1) 5-2
Allen (7) 4-4
Jackson (32) 4-4
Goff (1) 2-2

Let's be fair and look at a bigger list, shall we?

Sam Bradford (1)
Cam Newton (1) 1-2
Jake Locker (8)
Andrew Luck (1) 3-3
*Robert Griffin (2) 0-1
Blake Bortles (4) 2-1
Jamis Winston (1)
Marcus Mariota (2) 1-1
*Carson Wentz (1) 0-1
*Mitch Trubisky (2) 0-2
Deshaun Watson (12) 1-2
Baker Mayfield (1) 1-1
*Sam Darnold (3)
Kyler Murray (1) 0-1
Daniel Jones (6) 1-1
Tua Tugaviola (5) 0-1
Trevor Lawerence (1) 1-1
Zach Wilson (2)
*Tre Lance (3)

* Teams traded up for

That's a lot of underperforming QBs! The strangest outlier being that Blake Bortles has the best record of everyone on this list.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I commented on the Bills injuries earlier. I think the key players are:

• LB Terrel Bernard - He has been a tackling machine the last several weeks, carted off the field against the Steelers. How he'll play, if he can, is beyond me.
• CB Taron Johnson - not a ball hawk, but a great defender. Bills fans are used to seeing his #7 all over the field. If he can't go at near full strength this will be bad news for Buffalo.

The others are of course important, but Davis for example has been out for weeks. Rapp didn't play last week either, and has missed chunks of the season. Diggs will play. The rest of those players have been contributors, but not to the level of Bernard and Johnson. If those guys are out or too hurt to play well, and Mahomes and his receivers get into any groove at all, the Bills may simply give up too many points.

[NFL Quarterbacks on the move in 2024]

I think the big story we'll see soon enough will be a rush to sign veteran QBs who can start many games. With the rate QBs went down this year (not as bad as Nomad's prediction, but close. He wasn't really wrong) I see a run on not just a QB like Gardner Minshew, but QBs like Jake Browning, Joshua Dobbs, Jacoby Brissett, Mason Rudolph and a few others, signing $10m contracts with a team anticipating this guy has a 50% chance of playing half the games for the team. I don't know about a full-on bidding war, but this year showed how stressful it was to all of a sudden have a guy like Tyson Bagent, Tim Boyle, or even Tommy DeVito (who did okay) as your only QB.

I also expect teams to a better job trying to fast track train young QBs. Players like Clayton Tune or Jaren Hall, who showed some promise but made mistakes quickly showing they aren't ready. I see teams doing things like hiring a second QB coach, or even outside QB and offensive coaches to specifically teach them.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Smartest thing Mark Davis has done since he's owned the team.

I would say a good general rule (any sport) is not to appoint the interim coach permanently. In fact, better still (NFL-specific), don't sack a head coach midseason and appoint an interim in the first place - that way it's not possible to appoint an interim. I'm sure there have been exceptions where it has worked but it would be a no from me. Interim coaches are often very popular with the players and sometimes fans as well which is one reason teams end up falling into the trap.

 

[movingtarget]

I would say a good general rule (any sport) is not to appoint the interim coach permanently. In fact, better still (NFL-specific), don't sack a head coach midseason and appoint an interim in the first place - that way it's not possible to appoint an interim. I'm sure there have been exceptions where it has worked but it would be a no from me. Interim coaches are often very popular with the players and sometimes fans as well which is one reason teams end up falling into the trap.

Or maybe it just says a lot about the previous coach...............

 

[SHAD0W93]

BREAKING: Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney Won't Play In Divisional Round Game vs Bills

A big loss for the Buffalo Bills. The Kansas City Chiefs have ruled out wide receiver Kadarius Toney for Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round game against the Buffalo Bills due to hip and ankle injures. Toney had received a questionable designation after being limited in practice all week. Toney helped...

dailysnark.com

At this point I think Chiefs are making up injuries to keep him off the field, if they win the Super Bowl I bet they don’t have him at the award ceremony or float celebration. Same with MVS and Moore.

 

[Nomad]

Not arguably about CJ. He most certainly should have been #1 overall. While Bryce Young is on a terrible team, a terrible organization, he showed almost nothing all season. Mostly moved around in the pocket, looked for checkdowns, and about half his passes looked sketchy, all year.

Let's be fair and look at a bigger list, shall we?

Sam Bradford (1)
Cam Newton (1) 1-2
Jake Locker (8)
Andrew Luck (1) 3-3
*Robert Griffin (2) 0-1
Blake Bortles (4) 2-1
Jamis Winston (1)
Marcus Mariota (2) 1-1
*Carson Wentz (1) 0-1
*Mitch Trubisky (2) 0-2
Deshaun Watson (12) 1-2
Baker Mayfield (1) 1-1
*Sam Darnold (3)
Kyler Murray (1) 0-1
Daniel Jones (6) 1-1
Tua Tugaviola (5) 0-1
Trevor Lawerence (1) 1-1
Zach Wilson (2)
*Tre Lance (3)

* Teams traded up for

That's a lot of underperforming QBs! The strangest outlier being that Blake Bortles has the best record of everyone on this list.

I don't understand the point of your list? Are you trying to deflect from my roasting of Herbert? Btw, Wentz was a #2 OA - drafted behind Goff that year - but it doesn't matter anyway because he was touted as the next "Big Ben" Lol Are you trying to justify Herbert's pathetic performance by listing a bunch of underperformers & busts that I'm already aware of? Besides, most of those of guys are making a effin ton of $$$, or have a made a ton of $$$ - so they get the last laugh.

FWIW, Luck's career was cut short by some serious injuries (lacerated kidney, fractured ribs/punctured lung, etc). In his first 4 yrs (the metric I used since Herbert is a 4 yr starter since day 1), he had 6 playoffs appearances with 3 wins including an AFC championship appearance against NE. Herbert, again,  one playoff appearance - so not even in the same conversation with Luck.

So, I don't know the point of your list. Herbert is a chump...plain & simple. He makes a sh*tload of money for being lousy ($52 effin million a year...are you kidding me? Charger ownership must have been completely out of their mind!). Staley looses his job because his QB sucks. Lol And it's not like Herbert hasn't had any talent around him over those 4 yrs. Lol. And the guy could walk away from the game tomorrow & be very wealthy man. He wouldn't have to work another day in his life. But if he wanted to, the networks would sign him up in a heartbeat as an analysis, talking head, spokesman, etc. Lol

Bottom line: Herbert is a bust! But I know some of his faithful here get upset with this. Lol

 

[Nomad]

I commented on the Bills injuries earlier. I think the key players are:

• LB Terrel Bernard - He has been a tackling machine the last several weeks, carted off the field against the Steelers. How he'll play, if he can, is beyond me.
• CB Taron Johnson - not a ball hawk, but a great defender. Bills fans are used to seeing his #7 all over the field. If he can't go at near full strength this will be bad news for Buffalo.

The others are of course important, but Davis for example has been out for weeks. Rapp didn't play last week either, and has missed chunks of the season.

I don't know what's with Rapp - it's supposedly just a calf injury. He's usually a tough hombre - one of the hardest hitting safeties in the business. And he had that game sealing pick against the Steelers. This questions his toughness, IMO.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I would say a good general rule (any sport) is not to appoint the interim coach permanently. In fact, better still (NFL-specific), don't sack a head coach midseason and appoint an interim in the first place - that way it's not possible to appoint an interim. I'm sure there have been exceptions where it has worked but it would be a no from me. Interim coaches are often very popular with the players and sometimes fans as well which is one reason teams end up falling into the trap.

Look at their previous coach! The Raiders were about to have a mutiny and toss McDaniels off the plank!

I tried looking it up, most interim coaches don't do great, though a few do. But then again, there's only one Super Bowl winner each season. Lots of room for losing, which the Raiders have done for quite a few years now. So this would be hard to be worse. I think player personnel will be a bigger concern. They don't have a deep roster, their D over-performed, a rookie QB looked decent, but not special. A few overpaid players. It's going to be a challenging 2-3 years for the GM, as much as the coach.

I don't understand the point of your list?

That most of these guys were overdrafted, overhyped, and likely overpaid!

Edit: For clarity, it was Kaiir Elam who got the pick against the Steelers. Rapp didn't play.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I don't always make number predictions, but I'll take Baltimore beating Houston about 30-16.

You know what, I'll take SF over Green Bay about 30-16.

 

[Nomad]

Edit: For clarity, it was Kaiir Elam who got the pick against the Steelers. Rapp didn't play.

Good correction - my mistake. I meant the game sealing pick against Miami  in the last game of season for the division title:

View: https://youtu.be/C8jpmV5wmfw?feature=shared

Since Rapp didn't play in the following game against Pittsburgh, he must have been injured on this play? I think he was limping & helped off the field as he was getting accolades from his teammates.

 

[Nomad]

You know what, I'll take SF over Green Bay about 30-16.

It will be interesting to see what kind of confidence GB brings into Levi's stadium. Since week #10, Love has been the best performing QB in the league. He'll need a phenomenal game to even come close to an upset against the mighty 49ers.

They're predicting a steady, cold rain throughout the game - ball control will be paramount.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kron4.com/nfl/49ers/red-and-gold-zone/49ers-packers-playoff-game-in-santa-clara-likely-to-have-rain-throughout/amp/

 

[Unchained]

Nomad, this might be a tall ask, let's say for the last @10 draft years, is there a big spread between position player contract dollar values and years signed. As an example for Lamar Jackson, came in the league in 2018..all the numbers I read said that he was owed $185 million guaranteed. I have heard it referred to as class..like the class of 2018..what other quarterbacks came in with him in 2018? And were the contact amounts and lengths similar?
That's really my question, are terms and amounts similar per draft year for similar position?
My other question would be about you and Justin Herbert.. In 2020, did you think he deserved offensive rookie of the year? And follow up who was better?
* I don't know any of the answers* I certainly think that Herbert is an underperformer but you have data that has him in the bust category!!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Not too far off from my 30-16 prediction! Ravens looked good, Lamar really bounced back after some sacks, beating the Texans with both his arm, and legs. Maybe most of all, it seems like no one on the Ravens was injured! It's going to be very difficult for either Buffalo or KC to go into Baltimore and win.

 

[movingtarget]

Ravens running away with it. No Cowboys melting moments although the Texans held them for a while. very good season for the Texans nonetheless. Rookie coach, lots of new players, they found their franchise QB, future is looking bright.

 

[jmdirt]

OK, the fashion of the year: Ryans should be fired and Stroud is a bust!

Great season for HOU...they should be tough for a few years!

BAL is a really good team...but then we all knew that.

 

[SHAD0W93]

That dropped potentially pick six might be the game for the Packers.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Ravens absolutely bulldozed Texans until they finally fell apart.


Packers could have had that game if they got those interceptions and cleaned up their play. Game was well within reach and closest they’ve looked to beating the Niners in a long while. It would have been hilarious to see Rodgers reaction if Packers did win.

Packers and Texans delivered above expectations and should be looking forward to next year.

 

[BullsFan22]

Packers beat themselves. Not impressed by the Niners.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Same. SF did win. Purdy played a bit more clutch than I think people expected. But this game was Green Bay's for most of the contest. Youngest team in the NFL, and Jordan Love looked like a veteran star most of the game. Completely fearless against the SF defense. One bad pass late that I'm sure he'll learn from. Packers have a very bright future ahead of them, like, in 2024, and beyond.

I'm starting to like Detroit's chances to knock off SF. We'll see how they look tomorrow. Let's also see how hurt Deebo is.

Weather slightly improving in Buffalo. Looks like the snow has been moderate and will be cleared by game time. Expected to be about 25 degrees, breezy. Shouldn't affect either team very much.

 

[movingtarget]

49ers escaped just. The rain caused handling issues and sloppy play. Both kickers missed and special teams once again in the playoffs ! Purdy had a good 4th quarter but Love looked better for most of the game. Jones form continued at RB and the 49ers gave up 100 on the run in the first time forever.Game came down to a few plays and those early trips to the red zone by GB for only 3 points was probably the difference while the 49ers had less opportunities but did more with them. GB defense was good as was their o line, they held CMC until he finally broke one with a missed tackle. Looks good for GB next season on a very young team. 49ers have to improve on that next week to get to the SB. Early Deebo injury didn't help them nor did the dumb penalties.

 

[BullsFan22]

Same. SF did win. Purdy played a bit more clutch than I think people expected. But this game was Green Bay's for most of the contest. Youngest team in the NFL, and Jordan Love looked like a veteran star most of the game. Completely fearless against the SF defense. One bad pass late that I'm sure he'll learn from. Packers have a very bright future ahead of them, like, in 2024, and beyond.

I'm starting to like Detroit's chances to knock off SF. We'll see how they look tomorrow. Let's also see how hurt Deebo is.

Weather slightly improving in Buffalo. Looks like the snow has been moderate and will be cleared by game time. Expected to be about 25 degrees, breezy. Shouldn't affect either team very much.

I thought the Niners with the lineup they have, and having basically two weeks off for their starters would win by 2 TD’s, and would kind of cruise in the 2nd half, but the Packers were in form and having knocked off a Dallas team on the road. I am sure they felt good about this game, even if the Niners are better than the Cowboys. Problem was they instead of going for a td they tried a fg, early in the game they should have had an int, they for some reason backed off of pressuring Purdy and instead were too afraid of the the deep ball and obviously their last play on defense and offense sealed their fate.

The Packers situation is a mirror image of the Texans, they have a good young qb, a good coach and a core they can work with in the future. I think it could be a good divisional battle with the Lions and maybe even the Bears, who played well the 2nd half of the season. Vikings look like they may be the weakest team in that division.

As for next week, should the Lions overcome the Bucs (not gonna be easy), yes, they have a shot against the Niners. Their offense is good and their defense, although not exactly elite, is ok and they’ve made clutch plays when they needed it. I would love to see the Lions make the SB. It would be a wonderful story.

 

[jmdirt]

I've typed this too much this season, but another strange game. I have several theories, but who cares about 'why' after the game is over. SF moving on.

Just like HOU, GB should be really good for several years to come.

 

[jmdirt]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD4V66DtrKU

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1JShYmbc4g

 

[Unchained]

I've typed this too much this season, but another strange game. I have several theories, but who cares about 'why' after the game is over. SF moving on.

Just like HOU, GB should be really good for several years to come.

TDU, Talladega Nights on Comedy Central and to my surprise 7-6 at half w Greenbay controlling the ball but not the score. Josh Allen has said too many times this year " it was not pretty, but we got it done, got the win" Purdy had only a few moments of greatness but that is all it took
I am motorcycle only today steady rain all night and day, I hope that my beer, chips,salsa and tequila can get me through Detroit- Bucs game!! I hope the rain breaks or I will need to hit the neighbors for Chiefs- Bills and have to listen to old guys rail about Taylor Swift, Kelce everything.. Last time there was a problem when they were screaming at the TV during Eagles game, about camera being on Kelce and they said he was getting attention because of possibly being Taylor Swift's brother in law, media whores, I said it was because it was possible it was his last NFL game, they all said I am part of the problem, which could be right!!
Let's go Buffalo!!!
Roar Lions roar!!!