Nice research there. Fun fact about Hurts is that he wasn't throwing the ball exceptionally well at Bama (or at least up to the coaching staff's expectations) so there was a possibility of a position change. And with Hurts being benched in favor of Tua, he transferred to Oklahoma to play for Lincoln Riley. Riley who runs air raid offense (played QB for & was a GA under Mike Leach at Texas Tech) transformed Hurts to an elite passer in just one season! (averaged about 275 yds a game, 3rd Team All-American & Heisman finalist!). It was all under the shotgun where he was beating teams with both his arm & legs (added 1200 yds rushing from all shotgun formation).Didn't read all the link, but that was a good post.
Maybe it will take years for Mendoza to learn how to take a snap under center. It sounds like an extremely difficult thing to learn. Mendoza actually ran a wing-t offense in high school, where the vast majority of his snaps were under center. Maybe it was a miracle he managed to learn how to catch the ball when in shotgun in college and the center hiked it to him.
With such a concern, Orlovsky had me all but convinced Mendoza would be the first rookie QB in NFL history to go from 99% shotgun to taking snaps under center. A little research:
- Jared Goff: Ran a spread system at Cal. Took the Rams to the SB playing both under center and shotgun. Done even better under center in Detroit
- Josh Allen: Mostly played shotgun (couldn't find a %) to a Buffalo Bills offense that uses him under center, often to leverage his size for play-action.
- Jalen Hurts: You assumed he played college under center? Tush push and all? Nope. Adapted from a shotgun-heavy collegiate career to arguably the most diverse offense in the NFL mostly under center.
- Dak Prescott: Another pread system guy in college almost always in shotgun, to a pro-style offense in Dallas.
- Ryan Tannehill: Another spread guy in college, who went to taking significant snaps under center for Tennessee.
- Bo Nix: I know what you're thinking. That can't be right? Well, Nix played a very heavy shotgun set at Oregon (and Auburn). He immediately took to taking snaps under center during the Senior Bowl, and of course for Denver.
In fact, Riley's air raid offense has produced 3 Heisman winners & #1 OA picks - Mayfield, Murray & Williams. Riley is currently working with another top QB at USC (Jayden Maiava) who was projected as a 2nd rounder had he declared for the draft this year. Maiava (3rd Team All-Big 10) could become a 1st rounder even push for the #1 OA spot with the continued development under Riley.
And Mayfield & Williams are taking significant snaps under center - especially Williams under Ben Johnson, who's an under center proponent like Kubiak. With Murray, Arizona utilized more shotgun because of the disadvantage he has under center with his height (short dual-threat QBs don't do that well under center).
Even Mahomes, who throughout his career had a shotgun-to-under center play call ratio of 4-1, said he can play just as well under center if Reid wants to move more toward that trend:
Patrick Mahomes makes it clear he doesn’t have a preference regarding an aspect of the offense that could change everything
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs need to switch things up a bit.
atozsports.com
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NFL ending ‘Monday Night Football’ doubleheaders, exploring adding Thanksgiving Eve game
The NFL will redistribute the five games in standalone windows.
www.nytimes.com
I don't know about you guys, but I liked the double-headers. The 2nd game was always a West Coast or Pacific time zone team hosting.
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I like MNF double headers also. Believe it or not, that's where I think Dan Orlovsky does best, as a 2nd color guy in those games. He's compelled to give very brief comments, state facts and get to the point. He can break down and analyze plays well when on ESPN too. But mostly he just stirs things up to agitate people, and it gets annoying. Orlovsky does almost as well as Kurt Warner. The best I think is JT O'Sullivan, but he's only on his own YouTube channel, and he can drone on for too long. But he's very analytical. Very sharp guy.
I'm very confident Mahomes could play 10:1 under center/shotgun, and he'd do fine. I'm more worried about his mobility because of his knee.
That report about Mayfield playing hurt explains a few things.
Most of the UFL games this weekend were good. Very energized crowd in Columbus, though their team (basically an expansion team) is going to struggle, and did.
I'm very confident Mahomes could play 10:1 under center/shotgun, and he'd do fine. I'm more worried about his mobility because of his knee.
That report about Mayfield playing hurt explains a few things.
Most of the UFL games this weekend were good. Very energized crowd in Columbus, though their team (basically an expansion team) is going to struggle, and did.
On Mahomes, I think we're seeing the decline with him & he's all but finished. The ACL injury was just the icing on the cake. His passing efficiency, deep-ball accuracy & playmaking ability were all on the decline long before the injury. His stats were deplorable last season - all career lows in comp pct (62), TDs (22) & passer rating (89.6). A far cry from his gunslinging, air-raid MVP seasons where he was canning 5000 + yd seasons, 40 + TDs & 100 + passer ratings! (his career high is 113.8 & career average 100.8). The only area he improved in last season was rushing where he ran a career high 422 yds (5th among QB rushing leaders). But that's because his passing game was so ineffective he was trying to make things happen by running more which turned out to be a bad idea. Lol.
Honestly, I think KC should consider drafting a QB from the bigger pool of the 2027 class & start all over (I don't think Fields can be molded into a franchise QB). Mahomes should consider retirement -- what else does he have to prove? He's a first ballot shoo-in for HOF & arguably a top 3-5 all-time great. The dynasty of KC & the glory days of the Gunslinger are over. Some guys can keep their passing skills very efficient as they age (e.g. Steve Young, Brady, Stafford, etc) & some guys can't.
Honestly, I think KC should consider drafting a QB from the bigger pool of the 2027 class & start all over (I don't think Fields can be molded into a franchise QB). Mahomes should consider retirement -- what else does he have to prove? He's a first ballot shoo-in for HOF & arguably a top 3-5 all-time great. The dynasty of KC & the glory days of the Gunslinger are over. Some guys can keep their passing skills very efficient as they age (e.g. Steve Young, Brady, Stafford, etc) & some guys can't.
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I don't think he's finished like that. But we are going to find a lot out this season, with Eric Bienemy back, and from what I can tell in FA the Chiefs are going all-in on this coming season, focusing on their offense, and expecting him to do it. I still think he can throw the ball, especially finding open guys in windows short and mid. I'm not so sure deep. But I honestly don't know. Maybe he bounces back (to previous years MVP? I don't think so. But better than last year). Maybe the decline continues, especially with the knee. This will be a huge year for him, KC, and Reid too.
The future gen of QBs is arriving fast: Maye, Caleb, Dart, Daniels (despite an off year). I still think CJ has what it takes to win playoff games. Maybe Shough too. This year we will see if Ward improves, a glimpse into what Mendoza has, maybe Simpson too. Next year is when Moore, Arch, Sayin, Maiava, Sellers (and a few more) arrive.
So the writing is on the wall for Mahomes. Also Lamar if I'm honest. Maybe even Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Not saying they are all washed, done. But their windows are closing.
I agree the Chiefs need to look at 2027 to grab one of those QBs coming out next year! Do to Mahomes what they did to Smith (so to speak), if they see someone they like, and can either be bad enough to draft a new QB outright, or make a trade to move up, next year would be a year to do it...unless Mahomes turns the clock back.
The future gen of QBs is arriving fast: Maye, Caleb, Dart, Daniels (despite an off year). I still think CJ has what it takes to win playoff games. Maybe Shough too. This year we will see if Ward improves, a glimpse into what Mendoza has, maybe Simpson too. Next year is when Moore, Arch, Sayin, Maiava, Sellers (and a few more) arrive.
So the writing is on the wall for Mahomes. Also Lamar if I'm honest. Maybe even Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Not saying they are all washed, done. But their windows are closing.
I agree the Chiefs need to look at 2027 to grab one of those QBs coming out next year! Do to Mahomes what they did to Smith (so to speak), if they see someone they like, and can either be bad enough to draft a new QB outright, or make a trade to move up, next year would be a year to do it...unless Mahomes turns the clock back.
C'mon man, EB isn't going to make any difference. He can't reverse Mahomes' declining passing skills. Lol. Remember the team was lousy before he tore the ACL. Going into the Chargers game they were on life support for a postseason contention - he was struggling throwing the ball well before the 4th QT when he injured the knee.
I mentioned Young, Brady & Stafford to illustrate aging QBs that don't lose their passing skills. Brady won MVP at age 40, Staffy at 37 & Young in his 2nd to last season at age 37 threw for career highs in passing yardage & TDs! (these guys aged like fine wine).
Mahomes is done. Draft one of the young guns from the 2027 class & start all over.
I mentioned Young, Brady & Stafford to illustrate aging QBs that don't lose their passing skills. Brady won MVP at age 40, Staffy at 37 & Young in his 2nd to last season at age 37 threw for career highs in passing yardage & TDs! (these guys aged like fine wine).
Mahomes is done. Draft one of the young guns from the 2027 class & start all over.
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The issue is going to be putting together an entire season. And winning tough games back to back to back, which is what the playoffs require. Mahomes hasn't done that in a year. In fact, it was smoke and mirrors how KC did it in 2024. You look closely at that season, all the calls, and ball bounces they got, and they easily could have been about 10-7, not 15-2. The blowout SB loss to the Eagles was inevitable in retrospect.
That article made one big mistake though. It piled on a bunch of career stats. Anyone who looks at all-time stats will see it loaded with QBs who played the last 20 years. Why? The game is far more QB and passing friendly than it was in the last century. You can barely hit a QB, in the past you could maim the guy (ask Rich Gannon). You can't mug receivers (or hammer them, Tatum/Atwater/Lott even Dawkins or Chancellor). The season is also longer, and the playoffs longer. Top rookies all start season 1 at some point. And many QBs last longer, or just stick around longer. Just for example, Carson Wentz has more career passing yards than Roger Staubach. And Kirk Cousins has over twice as much! The article also piled on pro bowl appearances. Those haven't meant crap for at least a decade. All Pro is what matters, and the casual fan collapses the two. Seasonal stat leaders (multiple categories) and season MVP means more - even though it's voted on, it's far more meaningful and scrutinized than the pro bowl.
The article also pointed out there were two other QBs with 2 SB wins not in the HOF: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett. Bonus prize if anyone here can name the third QB (no fair looking it up!).
That article made one big mistake though. It piled on a bunch of career stats. Anyone who looks at all-time stats will see it loaded with QBs who played the last 20 years. Why? The game is far more QB and passing friendly than it was in the last century. You can barely hit a QB, in the past you could maim the guy (ask Rich Gannon). You can't mug receivers (or hammer them, Tatum/Atwater/Lott even Dawkins or Chancellor). The season is also longer, and the playoffs longer. Top rookies all start season 1 at some point. And many QBs last longer, or just stick around longer. Just for example, Carson Wentz has more career passing yards than Roger Staubach. And Kirk Cousins has over twice as much! The article also piled on pro bowl appearances. Those haven't meant crap for at least a decade. All Pro is what matters, and the casual fan collapses the two. Seasonal stat leaders (multiple categories) and season MVP means more - even though it's voted on, it's far more meaningful and scrutinized than the pro bowl.
The article also pointed out there were two other QBs with 2 SB wins not in the HOF: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett. Bonus prize if anyone here can name the third QB (no fair looking it up!).
Yeah it seems that more and more QB's over 32 or so are prolonging their careers especially while the back up QB money is so good. Cousins career earnings will be monstrous. Wentz was out of the league a few years ago, He actually retired and was QB coaching for a little while. The fact that Rivers was even considered is mind boggling. Looked good for two games but oh well.........Flacco looked done about five years ago even happy Rodgers has decided to hang around. Brady obviously weighed the risks and the changes to the defensive rules and won another SB. Wilson has done nothing but people are still willing to pay him while the only reason Watson is still employed is his idiotic contract but after June maybe the Browns decide to act with a good QB draft coming up in 27 but who's to say he won't be picked up again as a back up.
Drafts like this year's only encourage the older QB's with none of the draft experts enthused about this year's QB class. Even Lawrence's QB class was considered to be a great one but hindsight has proved otherwise while Purdy was the most successful QB rookie from his draft class and he was the last pick ! Probably says a lot about college coaching these days and maybe the skills gap between the NFL and college is widening except for the most elite players and could end up being a bonus for some UFL players and UDFA's. Also been noticeable how many very successful coordinators can't cut it as head coaches. Maybe eventually the NFL will have some sort of second division or maybe they help out the UFL while expanding internationally which seems to be the grand plan.
Drafts like this year's only encourage the older QB's with none of the draft experts enthused about this year's QB class. Even Lawrence's QB class was considered to be a great one but hindsight has proved otherwise while Purdy was the most successful QB rookie from his draft class and he was the last pick ! Probably says a lot about college coaching these days and maybe the skills gap between the NFL and college is widening except for the most elite players and could end up being a bonus for some UFL players and UDFA's. Also been noticeable how many very successful coordinators can't cut it as head coaches. Maybe eventually the NFL will have some sort of second division or maybe they help out the UFL while expanding internationally which seems to be the grand plan.
It's not even funny how good he is from that draft class. Take the only 1st rounder from that class - Kenny Pickett - and it's like night & day. Purdy is 30-15 in regular season starts, 5-3 in postseason with the SB appearance & a "Tier 2" ranking in just 3 seasons while Pickett struggles to make it as backup. Lol.
Great article on Purdy:
www.nytimes.com
He was actually very good at Iowa St. In fact, he was the best QB in the Big-12 for two straight years (2x1st Team All-12). Despite being a good college QB, he only operated out of a shotgun-heavy pro spread RPO with a lot of zone reads. Though he could sling the ball & was an effective runner, the scouts didn't see anything that stood out as an elite QB. And at the combine, he further disappointed by not having any elite traits. He had a good arm but not great, he ran only an average 40 & had a decent shuttle but not outstanding, etc. And they didn't like his height at 6'1" - below average for an NFL QB. All this negativity dropped him on draft board to that last 7th round pick.
The article goes on say that something happen between the combine & preseason camp. He came into camp with a much stronger arm, improved athleticism & was a quick learner for adapting to under center dropback passing. The coaching staff attributed Purdy's hard work in the months proceeding camp for his improvements.
When you considered all the top talented QBs that are drafted every year in the 1st round with promises of success that end up not making it or grossly underachieve, Purdy's ascension into stardom is a great story.
Great article on Purdy:
One team’s NFL Draft scouting report on Brock Purdy shows how he became ‘Mr. Irrelevant’
What is Brock Purdy showing with the NFC Championship-bound 49ers that wasn't as evident during 48 starts at Iowa State?
www.nytimes.com
He was actually very good at Iowa St. In fact, he was the best QB in the Big-12 for two straight years (2x1st Team All-12). Despite being a good college QB, he only operated out of a shotgun-heavy pro spread RPO with a lot of zone reads. Though he could sling the ball & was an effective runner, the scouts didn't see anything that stood out as an elite QB. And at the combine, he further disappointed by not having any elite traits. He had a good arm but not great, he ran only an average 40 & had a decent shuttle but not outstanding, etc. And they didn't like his height at 6'1" - below average for an NFL QB. All this negativity dropped him on draft board to that last 7th round pick.
The article goes on say that something happen between the combine & preseason camp. He came into camp with a much stronger arm, improved athleticism & was a quick learner for adapting to under center dropback passing. The coaching staff attributed Purdy's hard work in the months proceeding camp for his improvements.
When you considered all the top talented QBs that are drafted every year in the 1st round with promises of success that end up not making it or grossly underachieve, Purdy's ascension into stardom is a great story.
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Without looking it up my first guess was Len Dawson. But he's in the HOF with just one SB win. Then I started going through in my head the SB winning teams & their QBs over the years and found it - Jim McMahon the "BYU" guy. Lol.
Good point on the stats of the different eras. I had no idea that Wentz had more passing yards than the great Roger Staubach - I had to see it to believe it! On HOF achievement, MVP + SB or multiple MVPs independent of any SBs has a lot of weight. I could find only one MVP + SB winner that didn't make it to the HOF & that was Joe Theismann. Everyone else made it. I also could find no one with 2 or more MVPs that did not make it to the HOF. So with that criteria, 2xMVP winner Lamar Jackson should be a lock for Canton,?
On Mahomes like Shadow alluded to something has happen with his "magic." In the 2024 season you highlighted, Mahomes had eight (8) 4th QT comebacks/GWDs including the AFCCG win over Buffalo. This past season he had only one 4th QT comeback/GWD & the team was 1-9 in one score games! That's an insane complete 180! The magic completely abandoned him.
By comparison, Bo Nix last season had eight (8) 4th QT comebacks/GWDs including the playoff win over Buffalo, and the team won eleven (11) one score games tying an NFL record. It seems Nix is the new Sheriff in town for 4th QT comebacks/GWDs within the division.
Patrick Mahomes's Career 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Get Patrick Mahomes Career 4th quarter comebacks for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.
www.pro-football-reference.com
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=NixxBo00
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Like has been said though, 2024 they got a lot of help from the refs and their defense and special teams were playing lights out. Thats what makes watching the Super Bowl so enjoyable. The defense and special teams were keeping them in the game until they couldn’t overcome the offense anymore and broke.
The whole season 2024 he and the offense were basically like a pre 2003 or 2019 Brady. There was still moments when he got the game winning drive together but the margin of error is decreasing.
Just like this year the offense could hold it together for a drive or quarter but struggled to do it a half and going a full game was almost nonexistent. That fourth and forever against the Bills, he’s the best odds from current or former qbs to pick that up. For them to build up on, they looked the best as a unit since 2022 but were way too inconsistent while their defense and special teams fell off. If they build up on that and cut the inconsistency, they’re back rolling offensively (Mahomes injury pending). Cutting the LT was great since you could literally throw a flag on him every play for false start, holding, or both.
I think the Fields pickup is a smart move because he can cover for the teams deficits they have under Mahomes with some play calls on short yardage situations and while not as good, is a similar play style. I think Mahomes should sit out the first four or so games and work on his pocket passing and see how his mobility is. While rushing back is a great story, I’d be worried about a reinjury. Especially since I think next season is a wash for them. Developing as a pocket passer and mentally is what will lengthen his career, not his legs. Same goes for Allen and Jackson. Imagine Brady’s brain and work ethic with Mahomes’s athleticism.
The whole season 2024 he and the offense were basically like a pre 2003 or 2019 Brady. There was still moments when he got the game winning drive together but the margin of error is decreasing.
Just like this year the offense could hold it together for a drive or quarter but struggled to do it a half and going a full game was almost nonexistent. That fourth and forever against the Bills, he’s the best odds from current or former qbs to pick that up. For them to build up on, they looked the best as a unit since 2022 but were way too inconsistent while their defense and special teams fell off. If they build up on that and cut the inconsistency, they’re back rolling offensively (Mahomes injury pending). Cutting the LT was great since you could literally throw a flag on him every play for false start, holding, or both.
I think the Fields pickup is a smart move because he can cover for the teams deficits they have under Mahomes with some play calls on short yardage situations and while not as good, is a similar play style. I think Mahomes should sit out the first four or so games and work on his pocket passing and see how his mobility is. While rushing back is a great story, I’d be worried about a reinjury. Especially since I think next season is a wash for them. Developing as a pocket passer and mentally is what will lengthen his career, not his legs. Same goes for Allen and Jackson. Imagine Brady’s brain and work ethic with Mahomes’s athleticism.
That's not correct Shadow - Mahomes wouldn't be ranked an unanimous "Tier 1" QB for the 5th year in a row if he didn't play at an optimal elite level for the 2024 season. He received unanimous voting (50-0) for Tier 1 status (the rankings are compiled by GMs, HCs & coordinators - guys in the know). It was noted that the infrastructure was starting to erode around him in that season but due to his elite talent as a Tier 1 he was able to pull off wins.
Here's last year's Tier list (a new one comes out this August). Go to Mahomes' section & read the analysis on him. Remember their definition is of a Tier 1 is a QB that can singlehandly win games & carries the team. Tier 1 QBs have no holes in their game. If you don't agree then go argue with the GMs, HCs & coordinators that compile the list. Lol.
Here's last year's Tier list (a new one comes out this August). Go to Mahomes' section & read the analysis on him. Remember their definition is of a Tier 1 is a QB that can singlehandly win games & carries the team. Tier 1 QBs have no holes in their game. If you don't agree then go argue with the GMs, HCs & coordinators that compile the list. Lol.
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