National Football League

[Alpe d'Huez]

Never one to pass up a challenge...

Okay, I won't analyze every team, but give some up/down thoughts for 2012-2013.

Up:
Houston – Loads of talent, maybe #1 defense, best O and D players hurt this year.
Cincinnati – Young and on the rise, extra draft picks.
Tennessee – Talented and coming together.
Detroit – Deep in young talent.
Philadelphia – Not the dream team, but not 8-8 either.
New Orleans – Best coach and QB in NFL. Should have won the SB…right?

Watch for:
Baltimore – Last hurrah for Lewis?
Denver – Could go 10-6, or 6-10.
Oakland – Deep talent, can’t play worse.
Kansas City – Lots of talent, injury plagued year.
Arizona – Depends on QB, really. Skelton? Kolb? Manning?
San Francisco – Are they a WR from the big game? Or will Smith falter?
Tampa Bay – Lots of young talent. Not sold on Freeman though.
Seattle – Improving, especially defense. Ask again next year.
Carolina – Newton for real. Team needs another year or two.
St. Louis – Can’t play worse…right?
New England – Still good, but won’t get to SB…right?
Green Bay – If defense can get back to 2010, look out!

Down:
Atlanta - Won't play three years above level of talent.
NY Giants – Still good and will be hyped, but won’t repeat.
Pittsburgh – Old, but still will be good.
NY Jets - Crash and burn (unless they get Manning).
San Diego – Commitment to mediocrity.

Yes, I left out several teams. Miami, Indy, Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas, Buffalo, Cleveland, Washington, etc. They're either not going to get much better or worse, or there's too much to happen between now and then to even blindly guess.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I don't think I'm going to have that kind of energy. I'm sort of running on fumes already. Though I am curious about the draft more than in usual years, and the whole Peyton thing keeps me interested. May to August is for cycling anyway.

Anyway, i was just kidding. No way to make it... Cycling rules now, as we have seen the past week.

So Foxxy, you picked Tampa Bay in next year's SB. I assume you mean Josh Freemen will get injured? And if you have TB in the NFC, who is your AFC pick? I've got NO vs. Houston. I'm sticking with it until, well, until the draft at least.

LOL. But even better this: Freeman gets benched after a 1-6 start, and then JJohnson leads TB to a 6-3 finish plus four straight wins in the playoffs. And guess what? TB meets the 9-7 NYJ there, after they beat the 15-1 Texans in the AFC-Final.
In the Superbowl, TB basically wins on two return TD´s with the final score being 20-16.

This summary was just to play a little with the rest of your (good) NYJ analysis.

Never one to pass up a challenge...

Okay, I won't analyze every team, but give some up/down thoughts for 2012-2013.

San Diego – Commitment to mediocrity.

Haha. That´s the only sure thing: Norv will not lead his team to the superbowl. Otherwise great summary of yours.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Let me guess, Mark Sanchez goes 40 for 44, with 5 TD's, all to Holmes, in that win over Houston, and credits Rex Ryan's stately, Tony Dungee-like mentorship. Oh sure. Actually, the part about TB winning their last few games to finish 9-7 and go deep in the playoffs is plausible. I mean, it happened this year with NYG!

Just to verify: I have New Orleans vs. Houston. You have Tampa Bay vs. NY Jets.

This is more absurd really than trying to speculate on draft picks.

I actually feel sorry for San Diego fans. I really do. Even with that team, they could go 6-10 next year. It wouldn't surprise me. Commitment to mediocrity is sadly true.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Let me guess, Mark Sanchez goes 40 for 44, with 5 TD's, all to Holmes, in that win over Houston, and credits Rex Ryan's stately, Tony Dungee-like mentorship. Oh sure. Actually, the part about TB winning their last few games to finish 9-7 and go deep in the playoffs is plausible. I mean, it happened this year with NYG!

Just to verify: I have New Orleans vs. Houston. You have Tampa Bay vs. NY Jets.

This is more absurd really than trying to speculate on draft picks.

I actually feel sorry for San Diego fans. I really do. Even with that team, they could go 6-10 next year. It wouldn't surprise me. Commitment to mediocrity is sadly true.

It getting funny now. But please take care: The TB Bucs will finish 7-9. That was my original pick some posts ago. They´ll be the first ever team to reach the SB with a negative record, after the Seahawks made history as first team ever to go to the post season with a 7-9 record. They just fell short two wins to reach the SB.

I am still LMAO about that Sanchez line. Yeah, 40/44 with 5 TD´s sounds great. Actually he´ll be the first ever QB in the post season to throw 500+ yards vs. a depleted Texans secondary (which finished 1st against the pass in the RS).

Yes. Here we go: You pick NO vs. HOU, i TB vs. NYJ. Avatar-Bet?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Want a real laugh? The SB victory by the NYG came down to a time-out.

A time-out in week 14 vs the 'Boys on a last minute FG attempt by Dallas FG kicker to tie the game and send it to overtime. The FG was good, but Coughlin called a time-out just before the kick. The re-kick was blocked by the Giants, and so the Giants won the game and ended up 9-7 on the season. Dallas ended 8-8 on the season. If Dallas had won that game, they go to the playoff as the team with a 9-7 recored, and the NYG would have ended the season at 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=311211006

next year NYG fans should remember it was really Coughlin who won the SB for the Giants

dunno if that was mentioned here earlier, but I could not resist posting this

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I think it just shows what I have been saying about how lucky they were this year. Probably the luckiest team I can ever remember.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

here's another laugh:

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Want a real laugh? The SB victory by the NYG came down to a time-out.

A time-out in week 14 vs the 'Boys on a last minute FG attempt by Dallas FG kicker to tie the game and send it to overtime. The FG was good, but Coughlin called a time-out just before the kick. The re-kick was blocked by the Giants, and so the Giants won the game and ended up 9-7 on the season. Dallas ended 8-8 on the season. If Dallas had won that game, they go to the playoff as the team with a 9-7 recored, and the NYG would have ended the season at 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=311211006

next year NYG fans should remember it was really Coughlin who won the SB for the Giants

dunno if that was mentioned here earlier, but I could not resist posting this

... and it was inches between blocked and made. Watch the replay of that FG-Try:
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011121113/2011/REG14/giants@cowboys#menu=highlights&tab=recap

I think it just shows what I have been saying about how lucky they were this year. Probably the luckiest team I can ever remember.

Or the 2007-Giants, or the 1934-Giants. That´s open to debate.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

the '34 Giants! Man, you are a real student.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Want a real laugh? The SB victory by the NYG came down to a time-out.

A time-out in week 14 vs the 'Boys on a last minute FG attempt by Dallas FG kicker to tie the game and send it to overtime. The FG was good, but Coughlin called a time-out just before the kick. The re-kick was blocked by the Giants, and so the Giants won the game and ended up 9-7 on the season. Dallas ended 8-8 on the season. If Dallas had won that game, they go to the playoff as the team with a 9-7 recored, and the NYG would have ended the season at 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=311211006

next year NYG fans should remember it was really Coughlin who won the SB for the Giants

dunno if that was mentioned here earlier, but I could not resist posting this

I can't think of any other major sport where a coach can influence events on the field of play so substantially by stopping the progression of play - by calling 'time out' a split second before the action resumes. This is gamesmanship almost to the point of cheating. But, you're right, that one crucial time out that preceded the missed FG changed the course of their season.

I liked the pic you posted too. And, I'm very impressed how we've managed to keep this topic alive.....

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I can't think of any other major sport where a coach can influence events on the field of play so substantially by stopping the progression of play - by calling 'time out' a split second before the action resumes. This is gamesmanship almost to the point of cheating. But, you're right, that one crucial time out that preceded the missed FG changed the course of their season.

I liked the pic you posted too. And, I'm very impressed how we've managed to keep this topic alive.....

you're right, ya know. But the kickers have to have something to keep them on edge. You know, like a golfer in the middle of his backswing and someone blows a whistle. Tweeeeeet! Otherwise they just have a ho-hum boring job. Most of the time anyway.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I actually like that element of the game. Take a look at the NE-Balt game. First, the Ravens should have won, but that's another story. But that FG was something Cundit should have made. In most situations the opposing coach would call a TO to "ice" the kicker. But I firmly believe Belicheck say that the Ravens were hurrying, and didn't call a TO (the Ravens didn't either, and blew the game).

As an aside, while the Giants may be the luckiest team in memory, I'll still take that over the 2005 Steelers who "beat" the Seahawks, and shouldn't have even gotten to the SB in the first place, had it not been for Vanderjagt's botched FG we discussed.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I actually like that element of the game. Take a look at the NE-Balt game. First, the Ravens should have won, but that's another story. But that FG was something Cundit should have made. In most situations the opposing coach would call a TO to "ice" the kicker. But I firmly believe Belicheck say that the Ravens were hurrying, and didn't call a TO (the Ravens didn't either, and blew the game).

As an aside, while the Giants may be the luckiest team in memory, I'll still take that over the 2005 Steelers who "beat" the Seahawks, and shouldn't have even gotten to the SB in the first place, had it not been for Vanderjagt's botched FG we discussed.

Agree, and Agree

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

With the NFL Combine going on, and trade rumors swirling, I thought I'd give an NFL update.

RG3 continues to impress. There were worries that he was smaller than listed, but he came in a bit taller, and heaver. He's also really saying the right things. The guy impresses on all levels. There is no sure thing, but Griffin's about as sure as it gets if you ask me, and his stock has risen just like I suspected. I fully anticipate a big trade by some team with St. Louis in order to get him. Washington, Seattle, Miami, KC, NYJ, Cleveland all come to mind.

Don't be surprised if Luck signs with the Colts before draft day. This is within league rules, and considering the new rookie cap rules, it makes it easy for the Colts to do so. It's only a matter of making enough assurances to him before the draft so he doesn't create a stink.

Matt Kohli of USC apparently did pretty well with scouts and teams, and he'll go either 3rd or 4th I think, all depending on who picks when.

Michael Brockers DT of LSU also apparently really impressed people.

Griffin's primary target at Baylor, Kendall Wright came in bigger than anticipated, and has jumped in the draft projection.

The Patriots have two 1st round picks (at the bottom). Belicheck has a history of trading 1st round picks, but they desperately need defensive players, so...

Don't forget about the Wonderlic test. About the most pointless thing ever devised, that some scouts fall in love with. Ryan Fitzpatrick had one of the highest scores ever. Dan Marino bombed it.

Draft day is April 26.

I am now certain Peyton Manning will never play in a Colts jersey again. It's just a matter of where. His injury will be fully healed, though there's talk of tiny bone spurs in his neck could need removing years from now, but won't affect his ability to throw or susceptibility to injury. I'm thinking as I said before, Arizona or Kansas City, maybe NYJ or Wash. The first two have room under the cap, and all have nearly enough tools to win, which he'll insist on.

Talk that Randy Moss wants to come back, is fully healthy and still very fast. The only team I can see him on is New England, maybe. But it's possible.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Yeah RG3 impresses me alot. He seems to have his head screwed on straight for sure. There will be a real scramble will be for this guy.

I too am impressed with DT Michael Brockers of LSU. Would not mind if SEA took him, but some mocks have SEA taking 'Bama DE Courney Upshaw. No question SEA needs to improve the rush, but I think Brockers is more versatile being able to play inside or outside.

About the pointless Wonderlick... Ryan Leaf aced it. Just kidding. I really don't know if he even took it. But I would not be at all surprised if he aced it.

Another guy who has impressed me, besides RG3, as another guy who has a great attitude, determination, and work ethic is BC ILB Luke Kuechly. He's the one who had the cancer in his femur, went through cancer treatments which cured his cancer (yay!), had a titanium rod inserted from his hip almost all the way to his knee (medically I don't recall exactly why, but I think to support bone weakened by the cancer/treatments), and came back to have a pretty great senior season. He has looked really good in workouts, and is a projected first rounder. Did I already say great attitude. Really like this dude.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I watched a fair amount of the NFL combine this weekend. Positionally - OL, WR, RB, and QB. Mainly wanted to comment on QB here. The top performers were as everyone expected, Luck and RG3. While Luck showed really good athleticism (~4.66 40yd, ~36" vertical of the top my head) for a big QB, RG3 was so much more athletic in the dash and vertical, he just may make the Colts forget about Luck. But that is not likely. One thing about RG3 I did not know, he was his HS class valadictorian. Weeden threw some and they were all nice balls... all kinds of throws, on target, in stride. Chawks QB coach was talking to Luck and Tannehill on the field, so maybe they really might take Tannehill. The loser IMO was BSUs Kellen Moore. At 5'10" and only 4.88 in the 40, he looked like a chubby PK. Now way he will be able to escape NFL DEs or LBs. It won't surprise if he does not get drafted.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Thanks for that update. Moore kept trying to say he was 6', but coming in that small, even though he ran a pro-set in college, it sounds like he's going to fall way down the list. Weeden's only negative is his age, as he ran a fairly pro-set in college as well and seems to have a lot of poise.

Another article on RG3 in USA Today showing just what it's going to take to get him. As I said, had Luck not been here, RG3 would go first, without hesitation. Expect a bidding war by teams to get that 2nd pick in the draft. Yes, he's very smart. Graduated HS a year early, and got his BS in three years as well and was working on his MA. Was headed to law school if football didn't happen.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Thanks for that update. Moore kept trying to say he was 6', but coming in that small, even though he ran a pro-set in college, it sounds like he's going to fall way down the list. Weeden's only negative is his age, as he ran a fairly pro-set in college as well and seems to have a lot of poise.

Another article on RG3 in USA Today showing just what it's going to take to get him. As I said, had Luck not been here, RG3 would go first, without hesitation. Expect a bidding war by teams to get that 2nd pick in the draft. Yes, he's very smart. Graduated HS a year early, and got his BS in three years as well and was working on his MA. Was headed to law school if football didn't happen.

Moore might actually be 5'10" and some change, but the "10" part of that really got my attention.

thanks for that link to the USA Today article, an interesting read. As they said, it is really going to get interesting to see how jockeying to get RG3 will affect the first round. Some teams are really good at disguising what they are interested in to hide what their real intentions are. So that will be interesting too. I will say that I would not really want to be the Rams front office right now, sitting their with Sam on the roster but really wanting RG3. It could work out very well for the Rams, don't get me wrong. But if I were them I would be so tempted to take RG, but then what do you do with Sam?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I think Sam's not going anywhere. He needs better blocking, and another good receiver and he'll be fine.

Free agency has to happen before the draft, followed by a few trades. Once we get past that and see where Payton Manning goes, where Matt Flynn goes, where Jason Campbell goes, what else happens, then we'll start to see the frenzy to get RG3. I expect in the days leading up to the draft (or on draft day) someone will be willing to give up several picks and players to the Rams to get RG3, and I think it's going to be Washington, maybe Cleveland. Seattle is an outside possibility, but they're not going to want to give that many picks up to their rival team.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Continuing the valiant effort to keep this alive during dark times......

Theismann: Peyton Manning to Redskins ‘horrific idea’

Now we’re into the busy part of the year, when the Redskins will be linked with every available quarterback on the market, and especially with Peyton Manning.

“If Peyton Manning is released, Redskins are expected to pursue him,” Adam Schefter wrote over the weekend.

“Told by 2 people close to Mannings that Peyton very likely to be a beloved patriot despite smokescreen being put of their by Skins to seek other QBs,” Philly talk-radio legend Howard Eskin wrote on Twitter .

And what of Theismann? Not having it.

“It’s not a good idea, it’s not a bad idea — It’s a horrific idea,” he told 106.7 The Fan’s Mike Wise and Holden Kushner last week. “It would be one of the poorest things that we could do as a franchise. Are we gonna go find another guy for just a couple of years again? Haven’t we done this before? Haven’t we seen this act before? And by the way, if you get Peyton Manning, don’t you have a concern about protecting him? Don’t you have a concern about who he throws the football to?...

“We’re tired of looking for stop gaps,” Theismann continued. “It’s time to draft one of your own, or make a deal for a young one of your own, and nurture him, and then put the players around him. If we’re gonna be 5-11, if we’re gonna be 6-10, let’s do it with somebody who’s [learning as he goes], instead of guys that have been here, making mistakes.”

And Theismann, at least, seems convinced that the team’s decision-makers agree with him.

“I believe this is the year they’ll find somebody that you’ll hope will quarterback this football team for the next five to seven years, and put the pieces together around him,” he said. “We need to be able to find somebody who can step up and make plays.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...horrific-idea/2012/02/07/gIQAfDHewQ_blog.html

So Foxxy, what does Vegas say? Put the house on RG3?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I think Theisman's generally right. I think Manning fits better in KC or Arizona.

I also believe the Redskins could (and should) get ready to deal a lot to the Rams to get RG3. Not doing so would be a mistake.

Meanwhile, the NO Saints are headed to trouble for having a "bounty" program in recent years, where players were encouraged, or even paid extra, to take opposing players out of the game with hard hits. Apparently the brainchild of Gregg Willilams (the DC that cost the Saints their game against the 49ers this year - ask Foxxy, he'll agree). Both Williams (now with the Rams) and the Saints admit it was wrong. Sean Payton knew of it, though no details, but did nothing to stop it. Expect very heavy fines, Williams to be suspended, possibly Payton and other ACs, and the Saints may have to forfeit a future draft pick. This last one is iffy though as the league doesn't push the idea of punishing current players for past player and manager mistakes, so we'll see. Brett Favre was asked about it as he was on the "hit list" and he said it was part of the game, which is probably true. But the Saints got caught.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I also agree with Theismann. The only reason a team might want to bring him in is if they already have a young guy on the roster who is not quite there yet and could benefit from a couple years learning from Peyton. And for that reason, I agree with Peyton being a better fit in KC or Arizona. Manning might even be a better fit in Seattle, but I don't have enough faith in the Seattle QBs at this moment to take over when Peyton's done. Plus I don't think it's generally a good idea to pay big money for Peyton for just a few years, unless there could be some great mentoring going on between Peyton and his heir apparent.

I've been hearing quite a bit on the bounty program on NFL.com. Is there any connection between the NFL.com TV show and the NFL? Or would the NFL.com broadcasts possibly want to protect teams and clubs... not the players mind you... from any punitive damages or even from any negative public image? Does the NFL earn any revenue from NFL.com broadcasts?

The reason I ask this is that all the talk I heard on the NFL.com was that the bounty program is not something that is team or club supported, but that it is just a player-initiated thing that happens spontaneously in the locker room. Here's an example the NFL.com gave on what they think has happened in the locker room (e.g. gameday before game time, or at halftime).

Player A: So-and-So's killing us. I want someone to go out there and take him out. I mean I'll give someone $500 to take him out of the game so he can't play no more.
Player B: Aw, I'll give $1000 if someone took him out.

While this kind of stuff is not likely to be team/club sponsored, it probably has been witnessed by coaches who may not have discouraged it. Sean Payton may have known of this, but did he step in to stop it? That's one example where the details are lacking.

Bottom line, it's really sad, but not unexpected. Some of the NFL players are thugs and came from thug infested college programs. Question is, how to stop it. How about an eye for an eye. If the intent is to end a player's career by taking him out, how about life suspensions? Make the incentive extremely high so players will not want to do it. I know that sounds harsh and difficult to implement (the evidence would have to be strong and irrefutable).

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

After listening/reading more on the bounty topic, I was all wrong on this quote:

Sean Payton may have known of this, but did he step in to stop it? That's one example where the details are lacking.

Turns out there is more evidence that the Saints coaches and staff new full well what was going on... DC Gregg Williams (now a Rams DC) for one who has now admitted to being the ringleader of the Saints bounty program when he was with the Saints. Saints GM for another who was instructed by the League to stop it but did not.

The Saints bounty program paid players for knocking out a player, or cart-offs (Clayton - Saints bounty program worse than Spygate). All at a time when the league is trying hard to reduce career ending injuries (e.g. concussions).

Most people know that rewarding players for big hits is part of the game. Heck, even high school players are rewarded (e.g. with a pat on the back in front of the whole team) for the "big hit of the game". But the intent there is not to maim opposing players. And it is a fine line going from that to the Saints brand.

The Saints brand is the kind of premeditated stuff that deserves serious, long-term punishment. The type like I suggested in my previous post... long-term suspensions. And I don't just mean a couple of games. I could see long-term being anywhere from 1 or 2 seasons to life. Or an escalating punishment system like one season for the first offense, life for the second offense. Want to stop the behavior, make the punishment serious enough that players and coaches will want to avoid the behavior. And a life ban would not be so BAD. It's not like they are being executed or sent to jail for life. Offenders can still carry on a normal life. Maybe. But that's not my worry. It should be theirs.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

This is sort of like NCAA cases, where you have to ask who do you punish exactly? And how much? Gregg Williams should be punished the most harshly, right? But how fair is that to the Rams? And what kind of punishment do you give to the Saints for next year when many of the players likely to be playing for them had nothing to do with it? If you take away draft picks, or suspend the current coaching staff, strip prime time games, TV games, etc. or fine the team as a whole, how fair is that to those completely innocent or unaware of what was going on? And I don't only mean rookies or new players. This could be anything from assistant scouts to junior trainers to ball boys to concessionaires who had nothing to do with it. If you start clamping down on the team's financial ability to function as a complete business, these are the people who would most likely be hurt the most, who deserve it the least.

Then there's Favre's comment that he didn't mind being on the hit list, "that's football" showing this isn't an isolated case, just a bad one, which is probably not a huge shock to hard core fans of the sport.

One thing's for sure, it's a big mess.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Well, it is a big mess. And collateral damage will be unfair or unfortunate to some. When Saints personnel were engaged in hits for bounty, they may not have known the ramifications of what they were doing. That's part of the difficulty facing Roger Goodell's decision... e.g. How stiff should the league penalize the Saints. I would not want to be in the Commish's shoes.

I know players on other teams that Williams coached were not aware of any bounty program on those teams (Wash & Bills...players-unaware-of-other-bounty-programs-under-williams/). On those teams, other players have come forth publicly on NFL.com broadcasts and claimed it was just a few individuals who casually offered cash for knockout hits. But that was those teams. The Saints is a different matter, where it appears hits for bounty was taken to a higher level. It is possible other players on the Saints may not have known about it. It could have just been a part of the defense/special teams. In the latter case, guys on the offensive side of the ball may not be aware what the others are doing. That seems consistent with what players from the Redskins under Gregg Williams have said... even offering that Williams was the best coach they ever had.

I know this is not a criminal case where normal laws apply, but in legal matters the ignorance of the few or many never got the criminal off the hook. Yes, in legal matters the innocent are affected. How many times do we see innocent parents and family anguish over convictions passed down to a family member. That's tough and you feel for the innocent, but that's also life.

I think most NFL players have a pretty good sense of family, or at least a strong sense of not wanting to let their teammates down. In the Saints case, Gregg Williams and others involved let their teammates down. That sense of not wanting to let teammates down should be more of a factor in the future after the league hands down a decision and we all know what the ramifications for future incidents will be. Yes, the innocent Saints and Rams organizations will suffer. But they will move forward from this. The end result will be to eliminate this stupid bounty nonsense and make things better for everyone, especially the players.