..the quebec pursuits will start in about an hour. while the lady's race is boringly predictable, the battle among the men promises a lot of intrigue.
it is almost a certainty that the podium tonight, spared any calamities, will be occupied by ustiugov, northug and iversen. we just don't know in what order. starting about 2 minutes ahead these 3 can NOT be reasonably caught.
but how will the leading trio finish and what tactic will burgermeister and knaute have devised for ustiugov who starts 17sec and 25 sec ahead of petter and iversen ?
the norwegian tactic seems obvious. reading the norwegian media, i saw northug making no secret of it. 'i will wait for iversen and together we will organize the chase basing our starting gap at around 20 seconds'. when asked about his tactic, ustiugov cheekily deflected, 'i have to talk to my coach'. but what what tactic would be optimum for him ? of course, it would depend on how his body feels, the course profile and the rate at which the norges will be closing on him...
the course elevation map i could not find. the orgs provide only this:
http://skitourcanada.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/plan_parcours_quebec_nouveau.pdf
additionally, the fis in a starting list says this:
HEIGHT DIFFERENCE (HD): 25 m, MAXIMUM CLIMB (MC):34 m, TOTAL CLIMB (TC):97 m, LENGTH OF LAP:4043m
to me it looks like the loop is not terribly hilly. if so, the pace will be high (say, 35-38 min/16k) and the chasers could use the cooperation/drafting more effectively compared to a broken, up/down course. seems not a very good news for ustiugov ? if so, the 20 sec deficit is closable by half the distance, the latest. then, i'd advise ustiugov to throttle his pace down so, that the norges use a lot of energy to catch him. then, to latch firmly behind them ala northug and enjoy the ride till the finish, where his chances are at least equal to theirs in a 3-way sprint. plus, iirc, there are no bonuses in pursuits, so if he lost any time, it would be the same handful of seconds - max.
than again, he may chose to fight all the way by increasing the gap to 30-40 seconds. no one, including himself knows if its possible...
soon
