Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[zarnack]

I assume it will be 100 points for first over the line, because otherwise it would be a mini-tour with 50 pts for the fastest skier in pursuit, but 200 for first over the line.

Again I don't think this is really the most optimal solution. Someone, whose first part of the race was messed up, misses the chance to score big in the second part too.

Of course, we get pursuits in biathlon too. But at least biathlon pursuits have 4 ranges compared to sprint's 2. And the sport is so topsy-turvy that even if you are 25th in sprint, you could easily end up in top5 in PU if you have a great day.

There used to be separate pursuits in XC in the 90's, but then the pursuits were longer (10+15 and 5+10), giving more opportunity for chasers. It was then considered unfair and we ended up with 10+10 and 5+5 as effectively a single event.

Personally I think if there was a separate pursuit like that and full points were given based on finishing order, it should be at least twice as long as the preceding distance (so 30/20 km). Because what's the point if you have a messed up first race and don't have time to make up for it?

---

In men's biathlon relay France finally delivered what their team depth suggests. But gaps were huge, race became somewhat boring, and ski preparation probably played a role in snowfall too.

 

[Mayomaniac]

The Women's race in Nove Mesto was actually pretty interesting behind Johaug. I get the feeling that her recovery isn't as good, she seems to be a lot less dominant in the Tour de Ski compared to normal races.
The Men's race didn't have the deepest field, but Iivo finishing 2nd in a skating race is still really impressive and De Fabiani is showing some signs of life, 16th place today. It's also great to see Altimiras finishing 12th.
I expected more from Küger, him finishing behind Klaebo in a 15km F race is pretty unusual.

 

[DenisMenchov]

The Women's race in Nove Mesto was actually pretty interesting behind Johaug. I get the feeling that her recovery isn't as good, she seems to be a lot less dominant in the Tour de Ski compared to normal races.
The Men's race didn't have the deepest field, but Iivo finishing 2nd in a skating race is still really impressive and De Fabiani is showing some signs of life, 16th place today. It's also great to see Altimiras finishing 12th.
I expected more from Küger, him finishing behind Klaebo in a 15km F race is pretty unusual.

I think that his main target this season has to be the Scandinavian Tour. It is pretty unusual, however it is perfect for Klaebo. He's behind him in the standings, so he didn't 'steal' any points from him, but he'll start at almost the same time tomorrow. They will probably be the fastest tandem in the race.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think that his main target this season has to be the Scandinavian Tour. It is pretty unusual, however it is perfect for Klaebo. He's behind him in the standings, so he didn't 'steal' any points from him, but he'll start at almost the same time tomorrow. They will probably be the fastest tandem in the race.

Krueger isn't that good in classic, so that would surprise me a bit. I expect Iivo and Bolshunov to go full gas from the start, it wouldn't surprise me if the Norge duo would wait a bit for Toenseth.

 

[search]

Krueger isn't that good in classic, so that would surprise me a bit. I expect Iivo and Bolshunov to go full gas from the start, it wouldn't surprise me if the Norge duo would wait a bit for Toenseth.

Toenseth initially wasn't supposed to start, he was just traded in because Sundby didn't feel fit, so he may not be at his best either.

Holund took a wrong turn yesterday btw and only realized after 1km, that's why he abandoned - but he was quite a bit off the pace anyway.

 

[KZD]

Perfect weekend for Bolshunov showing a clear superiority in the Nove Mesto distance races and the only one that could have given him a good fight today, Niskanen did a good race, yesterday but today, had terrible skis.
Klaebo lost too much yesterday and there wasn't much he could do about it today only getting the second place, he is now around 160 points behind Bolshunov and the distance will likely continue to increase especially in the Ski Tour.
Kruger is more inconstent in skating but at least got better in classic.

In the women's business as usual for Johaug with Nepraeyva closing in on Weng for the second place overall.
I have to criticise FIS for insisting in the skating individual races while keeping the classic for pursuits. It feels boring.

 

[zarnack]

Eckhoff is trying her best to seal the overall cup this season. Only Wierer is still keeping up on consistency, others are already some 150+ points down and out of the running unless both of the first two collapse in form.

Fourcade is now more than a race victory clear in the lead. When will JT.Bö return? Some 130 points down now in the overall. At least he won't have to worry about dropping scores any more, but that takes some doing even in consistent winning form. Oddly enough Fourcade and JTBö have won all races bar one this season. It reminds the 2017-18 season, when also basically nobody else got a look in.

 

[roundabout]

The original schedule was for a classic individual and free pursuit but was changed because of lack of snow

 

[BullsFan22]

Niskanen is in good shape, as him getting second yesterday, but his skis were bad, both in terms of glide and the kick. He was slipping a lot more than Bolshunov and the three Norwegians he was skiing with. I am not sure if he would have caught and beat Bolshunov if he had good skis, but Klaebo and for sure Krüger would not have caught him if his skis were at least ok.

 

[zarnack]

I wonder, for how long will Johaug's domination last. This season for sure. Then the next season? The season after that, the olympic season? Johaug is 31-y-o, so she can't be too far away from getting past her prime. Then again her compatriot Björgen was still going strong at 37 to win the olympic marathon by 2 minutes.

In men Bolshunov & Kläbo have the potential to stay up there for a while if they stay healthy. They are younger than any other major contender out there and there is no new upcoming generation threatening to steal their thunder.

 

[zarnack]

Fun thing to say, but it looks like international competition has declined in men's biathlon recently too. France, Norway and Germany keep locking out top 10. Not sure if this is a temporary phenomenon or a trend. However, I wouldn't be surprised if biathlon hits some kind of a negative feedback loop too. Winters are becoming very poor in Europe these days. There is no way it isn't going to have a negative impact on the level of winter sports in the long-term.

 

[meat puppet]

I wonder, for how long will Johaug's domination last. This season for sure. Then the next season? The season after that, the olympic season? Johaug is 31-y-o, so she can't be too far away from getting past her prime. Then again her compatriot Björgen was still going strong at 37 to win the olympic marathon by 2 minutes.

Hard to see who would end Johaug's domination, really. Having been banned from the 2018 olympics, she will likely train like a madwoman with the next games in mind. With age, she will start to decline, sure, but aerobic and endurance capacities decline slower and later than speed and strength, etc, and she has heavily relied on the former factors. If anything, she has been as dominant as before if not more this season.

Then there is the question how to beat her. By brute force is the best possibility, but not many tracks allows that. Nilsson did it twice last season in a head-to-head battle on easy-ish tracks (WC relay, and canada races, perhaps quebec). By power to weight ratio? Well, it seems to me that at least Karlsson and Östberg have hit their ceilings this season trying to out-johaug Johaug in this game. Putting it bluntly, by not eating enough and paying the price for that, Karlsson more dearly than Östberg. It is anyone's guess what exactly makes Johaug able to withstand such a low weight better than others. Well, some aspects we probably know of, thanks to the klostebol pop.

Then age? While Karlsson is considerably younger and next generation in a sense, Östberg is only 2 yrs younger than TJ. Then there is Nepryayeva who is 7 yrs younger. She will continue to improve for sure, and may give TJ run for her money in the next five years or so, but that remains to be seen. Ebba Anderson has been undewhelming this season, Kalla doubly so. Pärmäkoski is top 3 material on excellent days when everything goes her way and some things go against others, but a more realistic assesment is top 5-7.

So at the moment it seems to me that unless Östberg, Karlsson and Anderson all take a leap forward in a healthy & sustainable manner, Johaug will continue to dominate distance races for the next two seasons. That is quite depressing. Hope I am wrong.

 

[BullsFan22]

Well until at least Beijing, probably until Planica 2023. After that, who knows. Whether or not she'll be challenged, that's also not clear. Right now you'd say she'll still be winning races in two, three seasons. There are a lot of young skiers coming up, 18-25 years old, and they may challenge Johaug.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Fun thing to say, but it looks like international competition has declined in men's biathlon recently too. France, Norway and Germany keep locking out top 10. Not sure if this is a temporary phenomenon or a trend. However, I wouldn't be surprised if biathlon hits some kind of a negative feedback loop too. Winters are becoming very poor in Europe these days. There is no way it isn't going to have a negative impact on the level of winter sports in the long-term.

Women's biathlon is much more varied though, even with what has been a very dominant Norwegian team that has won every relay like it's XC or something. Top 10 today - Germany, Sweden, France, Italy, Germany, USA, Austria, Russia, Switzerland, Canada.

 

[DenisMenchov]

What a performance by Bolshunov once again. Beating FOUR Norwegians in the final lap and none of them was Klaebo, who pulled out of the race after he was nowhere to be seen in the classics part of the race. Seems like he just can't keep up with Bolshunov's tempo and endurance over the course of the season. However , Ruddy has the chance to hit back tomorrow in the classics sprint and keep the fight for the Crystal Globe entertaining and alive.

 

[BullsFan22]

I know it's not going to happen, but I would love it if they used the old 5/7.5 km loop in Oberstdorf for the distance races at the World Ski Championships next season, the same ones they used in 2005. If there is enough snow, they need to, but we know that for 'TV reasons' they won't do that.

 

[Mayomaniac]

What a performance by Bolshunov once again. Beating FOUR Norwegians in the final lap and none of them was Klaebo, who pulled out of the race after he was nowhere to be seen in the classics part of the race. Seems like he just can't keep up with Bolshunov's tempo and endurance over the course of the season. However , Ruddy has the chance to hit back tomorrow in the classics sprint and keep the fight for the Crystal Globe entertaining and alive.

I think that the Norwegians kinda blew it by not trying to do anything with their numbers. Let gaps open, let Bolshunov do the chasing and so on, they should have tried something.
Niskanen did so much work it's not even funny.
On the women's side Stadlober finally got a podium, maybe she finally got over that brainfart that she had at the olympics.

 

[search]

What a performance by Bolshunov once again. Beating FOUR Norwegians in the final lap and none of them was Klaebo, who pulled out of the race after he was nowhere to be seen in the classics part of the race. Seems like he just can't keep up with Bolshunov's tempo and endurance over the course of the season. However , Ruddy has the chance to hit back tomorrow in the classics sprint and keep the fight for the Crystal Globe entertaining and alive.

on paper, yes, but it depends on what was the reason for the poor performance today. The Norwegians seem to hope that Klaebo just had a bad say.

But nonetheless, the competition isn't too strong anyway. Bolshunov can probably can end up on the podium himself as well.

 

[zarnack]

Well until at least Beijing, probably until Planica 2023. After that, who knows. Whether or not she'll be challenged, that's also not clear. Right now you'd say she'll still be winning races in two, three seasons. There are a lot of young skiers coming up, 18-25 years old, and they may challenge Johaug.

Johaug will be 33 at Beijing, and 34 at Planica. So she will likely still be very strong if not the strongest. Although others start declining quicker (i.e Kalla now), but Johaug may be more in Björgen's league in terms of longevity. Johaug's peak performance is so high though that it's hard to see anyone matching that.

As for young skiers. Well, it depends on how high the peak potential of Andersson and Karlsson are, as unlikely either has put in their best performances yet. Fossesholm is a good prospect too, but she is so young at the moment that realistically she won't be in the league of Johaug until after the olympics. Nepryaeva is 24 and still has probably fair amount of good years left, but I don't think her peak is in the range of Johaug. Östberg or Weng? Well, I don't think they are going to be better than what they have shown thus far in their career any more.

So basically we are waiting for the decline of Johaug with a hope that the peak form of any of the young prospects is anywhere in the league of Johaug. Then somewhere in the future we are supposed to get a crossover point in which the baton goes from Johaug to new generation.

 

[zarnack]

I think that the Norwegians kinda blew it by not trying to do anything with their numbers. Let gaps open, let Bolshunov do the chasing and so on, they should have tried something.

Bolshunov has better sprinting ability than any of the Norwegians left in the race + as Nove Mesto indicated he is probably in superior form than any of them as well. There is not much you can do in such situation, other than collectively try to block him or something in the final km's, so that he couldn't easily have his way at the front.

 

[BullsFan22]

Bolshunov is in very good shape, still carrying over from the Tour de Ski it seems, plus he had really good pair of skis both classic and skate and tactically he skied a very good race.

The Norwegian commentators were talking about how after last season, particularly with the World Championships in Seefeld in mind, the Russians studied the Norwegian tactics and tried to make changes and/or try to employ the same tactics the Norwegians did. It was evident that Bolshunov was much more conservative than he was last year. He already showed that in the Lillehammer skiathlon and the TDS. He had 4 Norwegians with him and he was marking them, and when he did go to the front of the pack, he wasn't skiing hard. The moves he made were to bridge the gap between the group and Niskanen earlier on and really when he attacked on the final steep climb before the descent into the stadium. He seemed to slow the pace down when he was at the front and nobody to chase. Even the chase to Niskanen wasn't that brutal, it was more measured.

This is good news for Bolshunov, if he can keep skiing smart he'll be winning a lot of races. His skis also have to be this good in other races.

Speaking of skis, Niskanen had subpar skis again. It lost him a podium last weekend and may have cost him a podium today as well.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I'd also like to mention the Estonian single-mixed relay. First ever podium for the country in the biathlon. Regina Oja looked incredible in her last leg, it looked like she just can't miss, and the speed on the skis was also amazing. Congratulations to both her and her teammate Zahkna .

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Actually it's not their first, Roland Lessing was 2nd in the Pursuit at - coincidentally - Pokljuka in 2009, but it's their first podium in over a decade. They've been putting together a pretty useful team in mixed and women's relays for a while, dating back to Canmore and Salt Lake City last year. In Canmore they were running top 5 with Oja and Tuuli Tomingas, and were still up there after Talihärm's leg, but Grete Gaim shot two standing penalties to drop them to 9th, and the following week in Salt Lake City the same duo of Rene Zahkna and Regina Oja (also in M-F SMR) were threatening to do what they did yesterday, being up there in the top 5 until the final leg, but Oja bottled it in prone that day. They were also 8th in the conventional Mixed Relay there, with Kalev Ermits and Tuuli Tomingas on the first leg for each sex pulling them into contention, and Martin Remmelg and Johanna Talihärm struggling to keep them there. They also had a good showing in the SMR in the World Championships, thanks to Tomingas and Zahkna. Oja and Tomingas then had them in the top 5 at the halfway stage of the World Championships women's relay.

This season, Oja and Zahkna were 5th in the SMR at Östersund, but Tomingas hasn't been as strong as she was last year. Oja has continued to develop though, handing over well in the mix in Hochfilzen and Ruhpolding. They've been held back in the conventional relays by a lack of ski speed and that they don't have a full quartet that are competitive - Gaim's speed is severely lacking and she's never fully developed into a World Cup athlete, while Kadri Lehtla is now all but retired and Daria Yurlova looked promising a few years ago but retired in her early 20s due to the lack of support and funding in the sport. Oja and Tomingas are 23 and 24 respectively, however, and Zahkna was a successful U21 who is now 25, and clearly the SMR has been targeted as a format that suits their strengths, so I hope we can see more success for them in future.

 

[KZD]

I think that the fight for the World Cup is over, a 235 point advantage is too much for Klaebo to overcome especially considering that the 30km Falun individual, Ski Tour and the Holmenkollen 50km are coming, so by the time the World Cup reaches the United States the difference could already be around 500/600 points and there is no way to recover from that.

Bolshunov has been better than ever in distance races (also racing smarter) and he will likely be the dominant skier in the next year World Championships, maybe winning the three distance races with Klaebo likely winning the sprint again, the course suits him very well as we saw today.

Nepraeyva did an amazing sprint today too, she will likely be second in the World Cup for the second straight year.

 

[zarnack]

I'd also like to mention the Estonian single-mixed relay. First ever podium for the country in the biathlon. Regina Oja looked incredible in her last leg, it looked like she just can't miss, and the speed on the skis was also amazing. Congratulations to both her and her teammate Zahkna .

Single-mixed relay is the best opportunity for outsiders to shine, really. The skiing loops and courses are not long and hard, so you basically have to shoot fast and clean, and somehow survive on the track with others. In normal long relays and individual races you don't see them anywhere near the front.

It looks like shooting clean and fast is what they are strong at, just like Eder & Hauser, who are also SMR specialists.