The thing with the Swedes is that they usually hit the ground running, but that's largely because Östersund is usually the season opener, so this is a bit harder to gauge. Ponsiluoma was really fast, and the women were amazing almost to a woman (Anna Magnusson, sorry to say this, but you're the exception). Røiseland destroyed the test races so I've little fear for her, but this was very much the Tiril Eckhoff that we knew before 2019-20 coming back, for all that entails. I always liked that Tiril Eckhoff more than the reliable version, but this was the flip side of it.
Zarnack, agreed, this race does often start the season with some unusual results - your point on Dzhima stands, and Synnøve Solemdal even got into the yellow bib a couple of years ago by being great in Östersund then being terrible from there on in. Other times it's where somebody makes a name for themselves from the outside. Germans have been big on this - back in 2011 and 2012 respectively, Franzi Hildebrand and Erik Lesser were, if not on debut, then basically fringe people getting entries due to performane at the opening IBU Cup of the season, overperformed in the Individual in Östersund with great shooting, got good start pots in the sprint to follow (the Germans operate a rigid rule of the best World Cup positions getting first choice of start pot) and built themselves into the fabric of the team. Daniel Böhm did similarly in 2013 which enabled him to get into the Olympics thanks to a fantastic run of shooting when he'd been out in the cold for two seasons before that. Lesser here today, for all his experience, only squeezed into the team in the test races because he'd had a bad season last year and was being considered ready to be passed up for a younger talent, but he put in a great shooting performance and a stunning last lap, showing that there's still a place there for a racer who uses their smarts to get to the front. I mean, that's why Peiffer is an Olympic and World Champion - making sure that if other people make mistakes, he's the one that can profit from it.