Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Samu Cuenca]

Shooting with 4 and 5 misses certainly doesn't help. And though he is fast, he isn't Boe.

It's definitely keeping the suspense alive. So are Botn and Samuelsson in the battle for third.

 

[BigCoward]

Best skier ever. No question about it.

I can't think of any other sport where someone's results are so far ahead of everyone else that they wouldn't be the best ever. Shame he's a bit of a weapon.

 

[dobrien]

Niskanen looked like a tourist out there today, not relevant in any races in VDF. In fact i'm struggling to last think of an Oympics that had so few medal contenders on the womens side.

Just off the top of my head I'd say any of Diggins, Karlsson, Andersson, Sundling, Svahn, Heidi Weng, Slind, Stadlober, Dahlqvist, Rydzek could all potentially medal based on how their respective races unfold; that's 10 people, I would wonder if any Olympics in relatively recent memory had more potential medalists than that?

 

[dobrien]

I can't think of any other sport where someone's results are so far ahead of everyone else that they wouldn't be the best ever. Shame he's a bit of a weapon.

MVDP in cross is the one I'd throw out there.

 

[YavorD]

It's definitely keeping the suspense alive. So are Botn and Samuelsson in the battle for third.

I don't think it will be particularly close, especially for the 1st.
Perrot is much more consistent in shooting while being very fast himself. I think that he'll easily pull away after the Olympics.
As for the 3rd, honestly have no clue what will happen.

 

[Sciatic]

In the women's 20K, it seemed like there was a lot more slipping than usual--was it particularly difficult conditions for waxing with the mix of new snow (and fog)?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think it's a combination of that plus it sounds like she has been dealing with an autoimmune condition of some sort; it's plain she almost looks "thick", like she is carrying a lot of inflammation around, and her skiing definitely looks very labored as you say. From what I hear some days she feels normal in workouts and some days she has nothing, even after a greater than usual recovery period than what an older athlete might need, so I think unfortunately it's the perfect storm of age but also else something not working right. If it was only age I could see her finishing say 18th or 20th today, but 40th at 4:36 back over only 20k, that's a disaster.

If I'm the US team coaches I will definitely be thinking hard about including her in the relay; unless she looks really sharp in one of the skiathlon, sprint, or 10k, my relay team would include Diggins, Kern, and a tossup between McCabe, Smith, or Swirbul. Not a great team by any means, but it's what they've got; Swirbul, Smith, and McCabe are all young, fresh, and all on (dramatically) upward form curves. Rosie does bring big race experience but that only gets you so far. Smith is the joker of the last 3; she is killing it in sprints but has put in basically zero senior level volume training so her distance really isn't there at all yet, but over 7.5k, that's a toss up between them imho...

So interesting in how age hits athletes differently; Astrid Slind still looks as strong as a 25 year old to me, like she could keep going for another Olympic cycle if she wanted to. Pretty crazy.

The question then will be who draws the short straw of a classic leg. As I've said before I think they're going to need to deploy Diggins on leg 2 now; in the relay, unlike the skiathlon where the classic is often conservatively skied to preserve energy for later, in the relay the classic is often where the selection is made and the US have several times lost out by losing contact on the classic legs and not been able to benefit from their stronger skate skiers because they're then skiing on their own too far back to make a difference, rather than having anybody to tuck in behind whereas teams with stronger classic skiers can then let weaker skate skiers be towed around the second part of the race. Diggins' classic has improved enough in the last 3 years or so that you'd expect her to be competitive with the vast majority she'll be skiing against (pending if somebody like Ebba Andersson delivers an A+ performance on the day), and then the younger skiers and/or sprint-capable ones like Kern or Smith can try to anchor. I'd say Diggins has to be on leg 2 because you don't want to waste your best skier on a leg when everything is in tight, you'd want some gaps opened so that she has the space to take advantage of. Hailey Swirbul historically got palmed off on leg 1, but I haven't seen anything from her this year that tells me she'd be more competitive there now than she was before her first retirement; Brennan might have made some sense tucked in there because she's done a lot of classic legs for the US over the years and, if she can't deliver to her optimum, then it will be easiest to 'hide' a weaker skier on leg 1 because everybody starts together and she can try to hitch a ride on other teams before tagging Diggins in.

Obviously in an ideal world for the US team they'd be able to put Diggins in as anchor, but I just think that unless the race conditions are absolutely dire and prevent any race breakup whatsoever (and I can't imagine that happening across three whole legs given the difference in depth of the various teams), the team is liable to be too far adrift to take advantage of her when she tags in.

 

[kingjr]

I can't think of any other sport where someone's results are so far ahead of everyone else that they wouldn't be the best ever. Shame he's a bit of a weapon.

Is he? He seems quite a thoughtful character off the tracks, not unpleasant at all. I wouldn't want to judge somebody too harshly from their behaviour at peak adrenaline, or immediately after.

 

[BigCoward]

When was the last biathlin race where no norwegian finished top 20?

 

[dobrien]

The question then will be who draws the short straw of a classic leg. As I've said before I think they're going to need to deploy Diggins on leg 2 now; in the relay, unlike the skiathlon where the classic is often conservatively skied to preserve energy for later, in the relay the classic is often where the selection is made and the US have several times lost out by losing contact on the classic legs and not been able to benefit from their stronger skate skiers because they're then skiing on their own too far back to make a difference, rather than having anybody to tuck in behind whereas teams with stronger classic skiers can then let weaker skate skiers be towed around the second part of the race. Diggins' classic has improved enough in the last 3 years or so that you'd expect her to be competitive with the vast majority she'll be skiing against (pending if somebody like Ebba Andersson delivers an A+ performance on the day), and then the younger skiers and/or sprint-capable ones like Kern or Smith can try to anchor. I'd say Diggins has to be on leg 2 because you don't want to waste your best skier on a leg when everything is in tight, you'd want some gaps opened so that she has the space to take advantage of. Hailey Swirbul historically got palmed off on leg 1, but I haven't seen anything from her this year that tells me she'd be more competitive there now than she was before her first retirement; Brennan might have made some sense tucked in there because she's done a lot of classic legs for the US over the years and, if she can't deliver to her optimum, then it will be easiest to 'hide' a weaker skier on leg 1 because everybody starts together and she can try to hitch a ride on other teams before tagging Diggins in.

Obviously in an ideal world for the US team they'd be able to put Diggins in as anchor, but I just think that unless the race conditions are absolutely dire and prevent any race breakup whatsoever (and I can't imagine that happening across three whole legs given the difference in depth of the various teams), the team is liable to be too far adrift to take advantage of her when she tags in.

I 100% understand your rationale here, it makes a lot of sense, you make a very cogent case for it and I totally agree it's a waste to have Jessie on anchor. What I would do though is open with Kern in the first classic leg, Swirbul 2nd classic leg, Jessie 1st skate, and honestly, because I'm not actually the coach, might even take a chance on Smith as the anchor as she's faster than McCabe in a sprint, but that's a clear gamble which really depends on what the 'break even' distance is with Smith and McCabe. If the race was still 4x5 I'd be favoring Smith honestly. With Kern, I think she could be equally valuable on either the 1st classic or anchor leg; my rationale for putting her on 1st classic is I am just weighing staying in contention as long as possible more heavily than what she could add on anchor over and above Smith or McCabe. I am not at all bullish on Rosie in her current form; maybe she could pull one last great leg out, but she is also looking the most likely of the US skiers to have a big stinker too.

My reasoning is Jessie is hands down one of the best 10k interval start skate skiers in the world so in the likely event she finds herself adrift after the first two legs there is no one else I'd want on the US team to try to chase back into something resembling medal contention. Swirbul crushed everyone at US nationals in the 10k classic and though she won't be at the level of Sweden's best at the games she is better than anyone else we'd have to place in that slot at the moment imho, and I don't think she'll compare that unfavorably to the second legs of say Germany and Switzerland for example.

Though it's nearly impossible to see past Sweden for gold I think the podium battle will be absolutely fascinating; it will be very interesting to see who is selected and in what order. All the pieces are important of course, there will be no US women's relay team which is not some sort of compromise. I have a difficult (if not impossible) time seeing this team medal but stranger things have happened, and ski speed, and no one having a horrible day, will both count for a huge amount.

PS. To add, being in the mid-20's today for both Swirbul and McCabe may not look super impressive but they both started last bibs today so that didn't help; I think both will be ready for a big Games.

 

[BullsFan22]

Best skier ever. No question about it.

A shame that his top rival hasn’t been allowed to compete for 4 seasons now.

 

[BullsFan22]

I just think father time has caught up with Rosie. Her best results were already an Indian summer in her 30s, and while she's had injury/illness issues, it just takes longer to recover later on in her career. She's looked laboured all season and while she's still going to be needed for the relay, I can't see her contributing too much else in Val di Fiemme of note here - and if she does it will instantly raise a lot of eyebrows given how bad she's been the rest of the year.

She’s 37, her technique is awful, and she’s had to deal with personal issues. Not sure why people are so shocked at her results.

She’s not going to race the relay. Her inclusion in the Olympic team is purely on historic results and kind of a ‘thank you for your service.’

I don’t see the US medaling in the relay. The Swedes will be big favorites, obviously. The Norwegians, Germans, Finns, Swiss, even the Italians on a really good day could beat the US.

 

[BullsFan22]

I 100% understand your rationale here, it makes a lot of sense, you make a very cogent case for it and I totally agree it's a waste to have Jessie on anchor. What I would do though is open with Kern in the first classic leg, Swirbul 2nd classic leg, Jessie 1st skate, and honestly, because I'm not actually the coach, might even take a chance on Smith as the anchor as she's faster than McCabe in a sprint, but that's a clear gamble which really depends on what the 'break even' distance is with Smith and McCabe. If the race was still 4x5 I'd be favoring Smith honestly. With Kern, I think she could be equally valuable on either the 1st classic or anchor leg; my rationale for putting her on 1st classic is I am just weighing staying in contention as long as possible more heavily than what she could add on anchor over and above Smith or McCabe. I am not at all bullish on Rosie in her current form; maybe she could pull one last great leg out, but she is also looking the most likely of the US skiers to have a big stinker too.

My reasoning is Jessie is hands down one of the best 10k interval start skate skiers in the world so in the likely event she finds herself adrift after the first two legs there is no one else I'd want on the US team to try to chase back into something resembling medal contention. Swirbul crushed everyone at US nationals in the 10k classic and though she won't be at the level of Sweden's best at the games she is better than anyone else we'd have to place in that slot at the moment imho, and I don't think she'll compare that unfavorably to the second legs of say Germany and Switzerland for example.

Though it's nearly impossible to see past Sweden for gold I think the podium battle will be absolutely fascinating; it will be very interesting to see who is selected and in what order. All the pieces are important of course, there will be no US women's relay team which is not some sort of compromise. I have a difficult (if not impossible) time seeing this team medal but stranger things have happened, and ski speed, and no one having a horrible day, will both count for a huge amount.

PS. To add, being in the mid-20's today for both Swirbul and McCabe may not look super impressive but they both started last bibs today so that didn't help; I think both will be ready for a big Games.

It tells you the state of US women’s skiing, certainly domestically, that someone who hasn’t raced in two years comes in, does well on the SuperTour, makes the team, and will maybe be a relay member.

That said, it really depends on the weather and snow conditions. If the conditions are hard packed and snow is fast, they can be in the mix, if not, no chance.

Also, the course is hard, and if they use harder parts of the loop, it will break up the field quite quickly and dramatically.

 

[kingjr]

A shame that his top rival hasn’t been allowed to compete for 4 seasons now.

Certainly, he says as much himself. But I don't believe it would have made a difference. The number of races he wouldn't have won solely due to Bolshunov is tiny.

 

[BullsFan22]

Certainly, he says as much himself. But I don't believe it would have made a difference. The number of races he wouldn't have won solely due to Bolshunov is tiny.

Sprints, true, distance, definitely not. Also, someone like Terence would have made an impact in sprints, and the likes of Ustiugov, Spitsov, Chervotkin, Yakimushkin, Ardashev, Maltsev, Poroshkin, Semikov, Retivykh…would have been in the mix with the Norwegians, as they were prior to the unfair ban.

Then you add Korostelev, who was to race in the spring 2022 WC’s and obviously would have had 3 full seasons of racing and invaluable experience, and it wouldn’t have been crazy to think that the Russians could have repeated their success of Beijing.

 

[kingjr]

Sprints, true, distance, definitely not. Also, someone like Terence would have made an impact in sprints, and the likes of Ustiugov, Spitsov, Chervotkin, Yakimushkin, Ardashev, Maltsev, Poroshkin, Semikov, Retivykh…would have been in the mix with the Norwegians, as they were prior to the unfair ban.

Then you add Korostelev, who was to race in the spring 2022 WC’s and obviously would have had 3 full seasons of racing and invaluable experience, and it wouldn’t have been crazy to think that the Russians could have repeated their success of Beijing.

There aren't many distance races where only a Russian (or only Bolshunov) would beat Klæbo and not a Norwegian as well.

 

[BullsFan22]

There aren't many distance races where only a Russian (or only Bolshunov) would beat Klæbo and not a Norwegian as well.

There were plenty of those races before 2022. Also, Klaebo was beaten plenty of times in distance races by not just Russians or his own teammates.

 

[DonAragona]

? She was 4th in the interval start 10k at Toblach (ahead of Frida), 7th at the end of the 20k pursuit in Toblach (ahead of Ebba and Frida), how is that not relevant? And she didn't race at VDF at all unless I missed her name in the results; not trying to be contentious, just that your post doesn't make a lot of sense considering what the results actually say. As far as today, I haven't seen the race yet (planning on watching the replay) but it seems to me 4th at 7 seconds on a day when the likes of Moa Ilar was 12th at 1:31 seems decidedly un-touristlike to me?

edit: I'm wondering if when you said 'not relevant in any races in VDF' you are meaning "I don't think she will be relevant in any races at the Olympics", whereas I took it to mean "She wasn't relevant in the races at VDF during the Tour de Ski". Sorry for the confusion in that case, that said, I still don't think she looked like a tourist today, and I won't be surprised to see her Top 5 the 50k; podium probably out of reach for her though.

She's struggled now for 12 months.

4th in Toblach in 10k classic, 25 seconds behind Diggins....which is hardly half a second behind Johaug in the same race at the Olympics.

She struggled all race today and at no stage looked like her old self. She's 37 and father time has caught up with her.

Like Parmakoski, she isn't a medal contender at the Olympics.

 

[DonAragona]

The question then will be who draws the short straw of a classic leg. As I've said before I think they're going to need to deploy Diggins on leg 2 now; in the relay, unlike the skiathlon where the classic is often conservatively skied to preserve energy for later, in the relay the classic is often where the selection is made and the US have several times lost out by losing contact on the classic legs and not been able to benefit from their stronger skate skiers because they're then skiing on their own too far back to make a difference, rather than having anybody to tuck in behind whereas teams with stronger classic skiers can then let weaker skate skiers be towed around the second part of the race. Diggins' classic has improved enough in the last 3 years or so that you'd expect her to be competitive with the vast majority she'll be skiing against (pending if somebody like Ebba Andersson delivers an A+ performance on the day), and then the younger skiers and/or sprint-capable ones like Kern or Smith can try to anchor. I'd say Diggins has to be on leg 2 because you don't want to waste your best skier on a leg when everything is in tight, you'd want some gaps opened so that she has the space to take advantage of. Hailey Swirbul historically got palmed off on leg 1, but I haven't seen anything from her this year that tells me she'd be more competitive there now than she was before her first retirement; Brennan might have made some sense tucked in there because she's done a lot of classic legs for the US over the years and, if she can't deliver to her optimum, then it will be easiest to 'hide' a weaker skier on leg 1 because everybody starts together and she can try to hitch a ride on other teams before tagging Diggins in.

Obviously in an ideal world for the US team they'd be able to put Diggins in as anchor, but I just think that unless the race conditions are absolutely dire and prevent any race breakup whatsoever (and I can't imagine that happening across three whole legs given the difference in depth of the various teams), the team is liable to be too far adrift to take advantage of her when she tags in.

America have zero chance of winning a relay medal.

Diggins should be more like Alex Harvery and focus on herself.

My advice would be to drop the sprint and the relay.

 

[KZD]

MVDP in cross is the one I'd throw out there.

MVDP in cross is more dominant than Klaebo. He hasn't lost a race in over two years and has won all kinds of CX races (sandy, muddy, over flat terrain, hilly terrain) while Klaebo has never won an individual skating race even without the Russians competing in the last couple of seasons. One can argue that's his weakest race but even in his strongest race, the sprint, he was already beaten this season.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

America have zero chance of winning a relay medal.

Diggins should be more like Alex Harvery and focus on herself.

My advice would be to drop the sprint and the relay.

Agree, but I dont see it happening. I think USA should go with Kern and Diggins on the first two. Try to stay with the lead and hope some of the other medal contenders absolutely flops. Then McCabe or Swirbul on third and hope for a miracle from Smith on the last.

 

[BullsFan22]

There is also no guarantee Diggins will be in top form in two weeks time. She raced everything last season and was far back in every individual distance race. They nailed the waxing in the team sprint and snagged a medal.

I suspect something similar at the Olympics. The skate team sprint and individual 10km skate are her best chances at medals.

The Swedes will push the pace in the skiathlon and 50km and I am not sure she’ll be able to hang all the way to be a factor in the last couple of kilometers.

And in the team events? Can Kern last all 3 laps in the sprint? Will the scramble leg skier not lose a lot of time in the relay?

 

[DonAragona]

There is also no guarantee Diggins will be in top form in two weeks time. She raced everything last season and was far back in every individual distance race. They nailed the waxing in the team sprint and snagged a medal.

I suspect something similar at the Olympics. The skate team sprint and individual 10km skate are her best chances at medals.

The Swedes will push the pace in the skiathlon and 50km and I am not sure she’ll be able to hang all the way to be a factor in the last couple of kilometers.

And in the team events? Can Kern last all 3 laps in the sprint? Will the scramble leg skier not lose a lot of time in the relay?

To be fair if you mention they got good skis for the team sprint, it's reasonable that wasn't the case in at least some of the other races.