Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Libertine Seguros]

First career individual podium for Philipp Horn, at the young, young age of 31.

Similar to Nawrath, he didn't have any podiums until age 30. They are fairly similar athletes, decently strong but inconsistent, probably around the border between the relay team and the World Cup selection limit had they come along at a time when the German team had greater depth, but as the team is struggling at the moment and lagging well behind the French and Norwegians, athletes are developing slower and coming through later - Zobel, Kaiser, Riethmüller all having a good 2-3 years at least between junior successes and emergence on the World Cup. Roman Rees is another potential comparison - one podium at 27 in 2019, and then nothing for four years. Horn's always been a pretty decent biathlete, but he's not consistent enough to have picked up a podium just by always being there or thereabouts and waiting for a race where the big names make mistakes, and he's not got sufficient top end level performance to have been threatening to score them if he just gets it right on the day when the likes of Fourcade or Bø were active. His first visit to the flower ceremony was almost 6 years ago now (Oberhof 2020) and both of his previous PBs of 4th were in December events as well, so it seems he tends to start the season well and tail off.

Johannes Kühn's first one was at 28 as well, but that's not atypical for athletes of his kind who are unreliable in the range.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Those flames in the final corner of the sprint lap in Davos are super trashy.

 

[search]

this may have been Klaebo's worst sprint heat ever

 

[Mayomaniac]

this may have been Klaebo's worst sprint heat ever

First time failing to reach a semi since his first world cup season, according to Swiss TV

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Friedrich Moch has screwed up his season preparation with strength training so much, he is already the worse Moch brother.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

HedeGOAT winning on back-to-back Weekends when the Norwegian dominance is worse than ever. Impressive!

 

[KZD]

Klaebo losing yesterday was nice surprise.

Hedegart really needs to go to the Olympics, he is a skating god.

Musgrave better today, the best non-Norwegian, Stenshagen with a surprising podium.

Expected more from Korostelev these two days, 52th yesterday and 25th today.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Expected more from Korostelev these two days, 52th yesterday and 25th today.

And Nepryayeva also so far behind. This race on the women’s side is very much B-level and Nepryayeva is nowhere close to the top. Even clearly beaten by an Australian..

 

[Mayomaniac]

I do think that thefact that the Russians haven't implemented the fluor ban for the last 2 years will hurt then at least in the first few months. Those youngsters also havd no experience when it comes to competing at moderate altitude in Central Europe. Imo they will improve rather quickly.

 

[dobrien]

I do think that thefact that the Russians haven't implemented the fluor ban for the last 2 years will hurt then at least in the first few months. Those youngsters also havd no experience when it comes to competing at moderate altitude in Central Europe. Imo they will improve rather quickly.

Totally agree with this; I had a feeling they might struggle with skis for awhile, it's not just about waxing these days, grinds are playing a bigger role than ever and are in play real time. I bet they come around pretty fast.

 

[dobrien]

Friedrich Moch has screwed up his season preparation with strength training so much, he is already the worse Moch brother.

Also Sophia Laukli just left the World Cup as well; seems she really messed herself up trying to juggle trail running and WC nordic (gosh, who would have thought year round hard core endurance athletics might not be a good thing??) and is going to be out indefinitely.

At some point the massive hours skiers are putting in now have to come back to bite them; doesn't seem sustainable over the long haul. People are definitely riding the razors edge, that seems certain.

 

[BullsFan22]

Anyone expecting top results from the two Russians was fooling themselves. So many factors in play here, but first, little to no time in adapting to Central European snow conditions and no use of flouro, only one wax tech, first international senior start for both of them, no international starts of any kind since March 2022, altitude, likely a lot of thoughts for them in regards to how everyone treats them, not a lot of time to qualify for the Olympics…

Another thing, neither Korostelev and especially Nepryaeva are the best in Russia at the moment. That would be Ardashev and Stepanova. Pekletsova and Krupitskaya have definitely been better than Nepryaeva so far this season in distance races, Faleeva and Baranova have definitely been better than Nepryaeva in sprints and Stepanova is miles ahead in any skate race. This will all be evident when more of them are allowed to compete on the World Cup.

So if Nepryaeva is 20th, the likes of Stepanova and Pekletsova would be in the top 10 today, easily. I watched some of the Russian cup races from the past couple of days and those two looked very strong. Yes, i know the snow conditions and courses were different than Davos, but Stepanova was 10th in the Davos 10km skate 4 years ago, at 20 years of age.

And I expect both Korostelev and Nepryaeva to be mixing it up in the top 10 later in the season.

 

[BullsFan22]

Also Sophia Laukli just left the World Cup as well; seems she really messed herself up trying to juggle trail running and WC nordic (gosh, who would have thought year round hard core endurance athletics might not be a good thing??) and is going to be out indefinitely.

At some point the massive hours skiers are putting in now have to come back to bite them; doesn't seem sustainable over the long haul. People are definitely riding the razors edge, that seems certain.

Laukli out, McCabe with health issues, Palmer-Ledger not racing yet this season, Kramer struggling, Smith still doing two sports, and the domestic scene looking very weak…not a good sign for US skiing post 2026…

 

[search]

as they were mentioned above: Ardashev's request for neutral status was already denied, by the way, and Stepanova didn't even send one in, for obvious reasons. So I guess it's unlikely we'll still get to see either of them in the World Cup this winter.

 

[BullsFan22]

as they were mentioned above: Ardashev's request for neutral status was already denied, by the way, and Stepanova didn't even send one in, for obvious reasons. So I guess it's unlikely we'll still get to see either of them in the World Cup this winter.

Yes, I am aware of that, just wanted to say that the the two racing in Europe are not the best that the Russians have to offer.

I am curious to know how many actually submitted requests, and how many more will race on the WC circuit this season. Considering how things have moved forward recently, I expect more will be allowed later in the season. The Olympics won’t feature many of them, perhaps only the two that we saw here, simply because the criteria has to be met during a small window, and the next races are two weeks away at the TDS…

 

[dobrien]

Laukli out, McCabe with health issues, Palmer-Ledger not racing yet this season, Kramer struggling, Smith still doing two sports, and the domestic scene looking very weak…not a good sign for US skiing post 2026…

And Brennan just a shadow of her former self. Once Diggins is gone the US women's side is not looking the best; the US domestic scene hasn't looked this horrible in a long time, there is hardly anyone of note coming through at all. Possibly Schamberger if her back injuries are fully behind her. McCabe has been struggling for multiple seasons now; as talented as she is she simply does not seem robust enough for life at the top of World Cup skiing, I would not bet a lot of money on her. Sammy Smith is legit world class but until she commits she's an unknown factor.

Also thought Swirbul might be looking better; she did OK at the first US Super Tour sprint behind Jortberg but then was crushed in the 10k, early days I guess but getting slaughtered by a very weak field was not a great sign.

Thankfully the US Men are in better shape.

 

[search]

Hedegart really needs to go to the Olympics, he is a skating god.

the federation said he isn't sure to get a spot yet, but yeah, I guess he has done enough. Klaebo, Amundsen, Valnes, Nyenget should be safe, some reports say Stenshagen as well. So even if they take another sprinter (which they probably will), there's still one free spot he could get.

Any idea what needs to happen for the Norwegians to still get full quota of eight? It obviously doesn't seem to come down to their own performance.

 

[BullsFan22]

Stenshagen is such a weird character for me. He had strong junior results, then didn’t have the greatest first senior year, then popped up in Planica at the January 2018 world cups, the last before the Olympics, then had good U23 results a week or two later, then another solid season in 2019, but then kind of disappeared and has popped up here and there in recent years, only for his results to appear almost out of nowhere the last couple of weekends.

 

[BullsFan22]

And Brennan just a shadow of her former self. Once Diggins is gone the US women's side is not looking the best; the US domestic scene hasn't looked this horrible in a long time, there is hardly anyone of note coming through at all. Possibly Schamberger if her back injuries are fully behind her. McCabe has been struggling for multiple seasons now; as talented as she is she simply does not seem robust enough for life at the top of World Cup skiing, I would not bet a lot of money on her. Sammy Smith is legit world class but until she commits she's an unknown factor.

Also thought Swirbul might be looking better; she did OK at the first US Super Tour sprint behind Jortberg but then was crushed in the 10k, early days I guess but getting slaughtered by a very weak field was not a great sign.

Thankfully the US Men are in better shape.

Brennan has steadily declined the last two seasons. She’s had some good results, but it’s obvious that she is declining. This is her last season. Once she and Diggins retire, Kern will be the US’s main hope, and only in sprints, and she can be very up and down.

I am afraid the US medal chances at majors will be very low for the foreseeable future, unless the names we mentioned above get on the circuit and remain healthy and consistent. Assuming that the Russians get a full team next season and beyond, and with the usual strong Scandinavian presence, plus Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and France, top results will be hard to come by, and dreams of a US relay podium at a major championship are looking less likely.

 

[dobrien]

Brennan has steadily declined the last two seasons. She’s had some good results, but it’s obvious that she is declining. This is her last season. Once she and Diggins retire, Kern will be the US’s main hope, and only in sprints, and she can be very up and down.

I am afraid the US medal chances at majors will be very low for the foreseeable future, unless the names we mentioned above get on the circuit and remain healthy and consistent. Assuming that the Russians get a full team next season and beyond, and with the usual strong Scandinavian presence, plus Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and France, top results will be hard to come by, and dreams of a US relay podium at a major championship are looking less likely.

I agree with your assessment of US relay podium chances; we had a close but no cigar a couple of times but the window has closed; US women are going back into the wilderness for the foreseeable future.

Brennan's case is not so cut and dried imho; she had a major life event occur with the separation from her longtime partner Tyler Kornfeld, she is a very sensitive sort and that hurt her very badly...don't underestimate the emotional impact of something like that on the rest of her life. Also she seems to be fighting some sort of autoimmune type disorder, or possibly the effects of long Covid, something they just haven't been able to pin down. No question she's getting older but she went from having one of her best seasons ever to just dropping off a cliff, it was definitely not just a gradual decline. It really is not looking good for her at the moment, she was a DNF today and things are just not working for her; if it doesn't turn around she's virtually certain to call it a day after this season. She was actually really on the fence about it already but I think the lure of one more shot at an Olympic medal was too much to resist; barring a miracle at the moment there is zero chance the US is going to medal in the relay this year.

 

[KZD]

And Nepryayeva also so far behind. This race on the women’s side is very much B-level and Nepryayeva is nowhere close to the top. Even clearly beaten by an Australian..

To be fair Fordham had a huge performance today even taking into account the B-level as she beat the likes of Stadlober, Sanness or Eiduka but I also expected a bit more from Nepryaeva. Maybe they will improve in the next few races as @Mayomaniac predicts.

 

[BullsFan22]

I agree with your assessment of US relay podium chances; we had a close but no cigar a couple of times but the window has closed; US women are going back into the wilderness for the foreseeable future.

Brennan's case is not so cut and dried imho; she had a major life event occur with the separation from her longtime partner Tyler Kornfeld, she is a very sensitive sort and that hurt her very badly...don't underestimate the emotional impact of something like that on the rest of her life. Also she seems to be fighting some sort of autoimmune type disorder, or possibly the effects of long Covid, something they just haven't been able to pin down. No question she's getting older but she went from having one of her best seasons ever to just dropping off a cliff, it was definitely not just a gradual decline. It really is not looking good for her at the moment, she was a DNF today and things are just not working for her; if it doesn't turn around she's virtually certain to call it a day after this season. She was actually really on the fence about it already but I think the lure of one more shot at an Olympic medal was too much to resist; barring a miracle at the moment there is zero chance the US is going to medal in the relay this year.

I did not know about Rosie’s relationship struggle. I knew she was dating Kornfield. I don’t get into that stuff, but yeah, that is a big deal, especially if one is more sensitive. Hopefully she can get that sorted out and move on.

Lucy Anderson (from Minnesota) may have to make a decision soon. Does she stick with biathlon and deal with inconsistent shooting or stick with xc, and get solid results in skate races?

I wasn’t expecting her to have top 30 results when looking at her results a few years ago. There have certainly been better skiers in her age group in both regional and national levels.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Also Sophia Laukli just left the World Cup as well; seems she really messed herself up trying to juggle trail running and WC nordic (gosh, who would have thought year round hard core endurance athletics might not be a good thing??) and is going to be out indefinitely.

In january 2024 you disagreed with me when I said she should stop focusing so much on trail running:

She need to spend the summer adding a few kilos muscles and work on her classic technique instead of traveling the world racing trail running and getting drunk.

Lol what?!?! She absolutely LOVES trail running, she's skiing the best she's ever skied in her life, and apparently having a blast doing it. It would be silly to change what's working imho. Every athlete is different, some thrive on being 'monks', others don't like the ascetic focus and thrive on having some variety; Sophia certainly appears to be in the latter category and if it means her sticking with the sport rather than quitting like Hailey Swirbul for example, it's all to the good. Just my .02 of course.

Let's just say I saw it coming

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyone expecting top results from the two Russians was fooling themselves. So many factors in play here, but first, little to no time in adapting to Central European snow conditions

I dont know about Nepryayeva, but Korostelev has been training in Ramsau and Livigno in the early phases of this season, so I dont think adapting to the snow conditions should be that big of a factor. The other things you mention are more reasonable. I do expect them to improve in coming races, and isnt Korostelev also better in classic than in skating? If he's doing the Tour I expect to see him go into the top 10 at some stages there.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Stenshagen is such a weird character for me. He had strong junior results, then didn’t have the greatest first senior year, then popped up in Planica at the January 2018 world cups, the last before the Olympics, then had good U23 results a week or two later, then another solid season in 2019, but then kind of disappeared and has popped up here and there in recent years, only for his results to appear almost out of nowhere the last couple of weekends.

Stenshagen is a bit of a weird case, but he still got double digit of individual top 10 in the World Cup before this season and even has a podium from a couple of years back. He's been winning the Scandinavian Cup overall 3 times and finished 2nd once, so he's been pretty constantly a very good skier, but hasn't got a lot of chances. A couple of times there has been also quite a bit of media storm in Norway about selections where Stenshagen wasnt selected for the World Cup team, for example for the 2024 Tour de Ski were he showed great form and was eligible for the personal spots as ScanCup leader, but got dropped because they wanted X amount of sprinters instead.

In general I think that the Norwegians that are just below the medals at international championships are very easily hurted by a slight drop in performance. If a skier like Lapalus, Vermeulen, Schumacher etc have a season where they are constantly performing 15-20 seconds slower in a 10k the whole season they end 15th instead of 8th every week and we dont really notice it. If a skier like Stenshagen constantly performs 15-20s worse he's 15th among the Norwegians and doesnt get to do any World Cup and he disappears from our mind.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I did not know about Rosie’s relationship struggle. I knew she was dating Kornfield. I don’t get into that stuff, but yeah, that is a big deal, especially if one is more sensitive. Hopefully she can get that sorted out and move on.

Lucy Anderson (from Minnesota) may have to make a decision soon. Does she stick with biathlon and deal with inconsistent shooting or stick with xc, and get solid results in skate races?

I wasn’t expecting her to have top 30 results when looking at her results a few years ago. There have certainly been better skiers in her age group in both regional and national levels.

That could also mean that she won't be training in Toblach for the next few months, since they used to rent an appartment there for 4 months per year for the last few years. Not wanting to be mean but I still want to end this post on a more lighthearted note, her classic diagonal stride technique doesn't look better when he passed you uphill close in person.

 

[BullsFan22]

In january 2024 you disagreed with me when I said she should stop focusing so much on trail running:


Let's just say I saw it coming

-----------------------------------------------------------------------


I dont know about Nepryayeva, but Korostelev has been training in Ramsau and Livigno in the early phases of this season, so I dont think adapting to the snow conditions should be that big of a factor. The other things you mention are more reasonable. I do expect them to improve in coming races, and isnt Korostelev also better in classic than in skating? If he's doing the Tour I expect to see him go into the top 10 at some stages there.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Stenshagen is a bit of a weird case, but he still got double digit of individual top 10 in the World Cup before this season and even has a podium from a couple of years back. He's been winning the Scandinavian Cup overall 3 times and finished 2nd once, so he's been pretty constantly a very good skier, but hasn't got a lot of chances. A couple of times there has been also quite a bit of media storm in Norway about selections where Stenshagen wasnt selected for the World Cup team, for example for the 2024 Tour de Ski were he showed great form and was eligible for the personal spots as ScanCup leader, but got dropped because they wanted X amount of sprinters instead.

In general I think that the Norwegians that are just below the medals at international championships are very easily hurted by a slight drop in performance. If a skier like Lapalus, Vermeulen, Schumacher etc have a season where they are constantly performing 15-20 seconds slower in a 10k the whole season they end 15th instead of 8th every week and we dont really notice it. If a skier like Stenshagen constantly performs 15-20s worse he's 15th among the Norwegians and doesnt get to do any World Cup and he disappears from our mind.

Yes, the entire Sorin group trained in Livigno. I think another group may have also been there.

So yes, they have had time on European snow, but snow in October and early November is going to be much different to the snow in mid December, usually.

Having said all of that, I do think both of them will ski much better as the season goes on. Both of them are better classic skiers, so distance classic races should favor them, as will skiathlons (not many of those around, but still).