Off season. We need some Giro 2011 discussion.

[blaxland]

For the overall result:
Ricco 1st overall
nibali 2nd overall
anton 3rd overall

 

[Bike Boy]

self explanatory:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiuHwNHM5L0&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91kvGlb0UpM&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bzP-aFxmrg&feature=related

Nice videos, sadly my question remains unanswered .

To be more clear let me ask this question, Is it possible that I missed an announcement from Anton, claiming he's aiming for the gc in the giro?

The reason I'm asking is simply because I thought he would place most eggs in one basket (meaning the vuelta), and with the accident from this year's vuelta fresh in memory, plus the fact that he is a spanish rider, I wouldn't blame him for skipping the giro or even drop out during the race.

 

[Ferminal]

About 150 days to go, too long I think my Giro Fever will only be eased by PN-TA week and then the monuments.

Ricco and Anton will stand alone if both race, the two major favourites.

Followed by Scarponi, Nibali and Di Luca (if racing).

 

[The Hitch]

Nice videos, sadly my question remains unanswered .

To be more clear let me ask this question, Is it possible that I missed an announcement from Anton, claiming he's aiming for the gc in the giro?

The reason I'm asking is simply because I thought he would place most eggs in one basket (meaning the vuelta), and with the accident from this year's vuelta fresh in memory, plus the fact that he is a spanish rider, I wouldn't blame him for skipping the giro or even drop out during the race.

I agree with you that we are not sure if Anton will target the Giro. I thought he said no. However i disagree with you when you say that he will skip the Giro because hes targeting the Vuelta.

Pop quiz.
Who won the Vuelta this year?

Did he target the Giro?

Good.

Now

Who won the Vuelta in 2008.

Did he target the Giro?

About 150 days to go, too long I think my Giro Fever will only be eased by PN-TA week and then the monuments.

Ricco and Anton will stand alone if both race, the two major favourites.

Followed by Scarponi, Nibali and Di Luca (if racing).

I like you

You see the Giro (not cobbled classics like most of the forum) as the big event of the season, and you treat PN and TA week in very high regard.

This is similar to my cycling season hiiarchy.

 

[Bike Boy]

I agree with you that we are not sure if Anton will target the Giro. I thought he said no. However i disagree with you when you say that he will skip the Giro because hes targeting the Vuelta.

Pop quiz.
Who won the Vuelta this year?

Did he target the Giro?

Good.

Now

Who won the Vuelta in 2008.

Did he target the Giro?


_________

Funny how things works out for the best sometimes, from Nibali's Perspective.

I get your point though, it's of course possible for most riders to recover between the giro and the vuelta, but Anton has never participated in the giro to my recollection.
Based on that I think's it's very understandable if he would skip it again, although the reason I gave was not the accurate one.

 

[Matthijs]

Considering Ricco, how well or how bad do you guys think Vacansoleil will do in the TTT?

Interesting question. If they really want, they can send devolder (belgium TT champion more than once), Lieuwe Westra (very good, 3nd in Chrono des nations, top10 in vuelta TT wk3 2009 for instance) and some maybe one or two other decent guys.
In their mountain support I have some doubts. And the fact that the Giro is right after the classics where all the potential support riders have their own goals...

I wonder, Nibali finished this Giro 2nd best of the favourites (leaving magic Aroyo aside), before Scarponi. Still I have doubts about Nibali in the steepest highest mountains, but Scarponi wasn't the best at that before this year eather.

1. scarponi
2. nibali
3. pozzovivo
4. sastre (finally top 5 again, bad TTT with geox...)
7. tondo (will podium the vuelta though)
8. ricco (he's not strong enough after the dopebreak, need a decent GT first)
9. anton (do not believe the giro-anton hype, happy some guys in this thread seem to have that insight too )
35. rujano
diluca, did not start

 

[rzombie1988]

I like Ricco out of this list. Too bad though that alot of names are going to be out of it. I think some of them like Vino are missing a really good oppurtunity to get a GT win. I also think alot of guys are stupid for basing their year around the TDF when chances are they won't win. I don't say that to be mean, but out of 200 riders, only 1 is going to win.

 

[royalpig180]

"Speaking to Cyclingnews on Saturday, Raimondo Scimone said that Menchov still hoped to compete in both the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France in 2011"

This makes me laugh. Has he seen the Giro route? Sure he may start both races, but the only one he'll be competing in is the Giro. He'll be toast after that and I reckon he'd be better suited to wait for the Vuelta. He'd probably be in the top 10 of the TdF, but barely.

Now this would be a good year to finally get that Tour win if indeed Contador is sidelined, but I don't know that he can wait to plan his season and buildup for the early season and Giro until we get the final word on Contador.

 

[Ferminal]

I think Menchov is hedging... Geox aren't certain starters in the TdF. He may need to target the Giro in order for them to get an invite there. It's much like Evans last year - he had to commit to riding the Giro to secure an invite, and he did that because there was no guarentee of a Tour invite.

 

[Eric8-A]

I'm going for Nibali for the overall.

The other 2 podium spots: Michele Scarponi and it would be nice to see a Columbian

As far as Ricco goes, I am confident he's going to make the race fun when it reaches the mountains

 

[whittashau]

I hear a lot of people saying Nibali based upon Liquigas having a strong team but assuming that Szmyd does the tour in support of Basso and Pellizotti leaves then who will Nibali have in the high mountains? I don't know too much about their new signings, but it seems to me that most if not all of their climbing domestiques have gone elsewhere

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Between the guys we know will be targeting the Giro I think it will be:

1. Ricco
2. Nibali
3. Scarponi

The route is tailor made for Ricco who will put in enough time on Nibali in the high mountains.

Of course there are some who will be able to change this: Menchov, Anton etc. If they decide to go for it, I think the overall will be:

1. Anton
2. Ricco
3. Nibali
4. Menchov
5. Scarponi

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

1: rujano
2: ricco
3: duarte

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Note. Based on many factors we can say with a high degree of certainty that Ivan Basso, Sammuel Sanchez, Cadel Evans, Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Alexander Vinokourov, and Alberto Contador will NOT ride the Giro.

Hence they are not in the poll.

I am also aware that Di Luca will probably not ride, but he might, so hes in.

Others to consider are

Xavier Tondo - Movistar magic
Jose Rujano - Colombian
Duarte - Colombian
Sella - not on list
Daniel Martin - not on list
Franco Pellizoti - not on list
Eze Mosquera - not on list
Damiano Cunego - not on list
Roman Kreuziger - not on list
Robert Gesink - not on list (probably tour)
Peter Velits - not on list
Kashechkin - not on list

My vote: Michele Scarponi. If Ricco

rujano is venezuelan

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

There can be only 2 explanations:
1. Geox bosses need this Giro more than TDF
2. They are not sure about TDF invitation
But no metter what Mr Scimone said Menchov doesn't want to start 2011 Giro

yes he does he said in interviews before his departure already that next yera he wants to do the giro again

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Well, but if he'll ride Giro for the general classification they can fail at Tour. He can ride Giro as the preparation, working for Sastre. I think it could be the compromise option.
Edit: then Colnago or Acqua Sapone will be out

no,

wildcards are:

farnese, androni, acqua and colnago, euskaltel won;t ride

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Juan Mauricio Soler as part of the "MoviStar Magic"
I might be too hopeful on this guy , but IF he does not crash/gets injured & finds his past form, the motivation & most of all the opportunity form the team-I'd say he has a chance..



other than that is Nibali's Giro to loose-The Cobra needs another year...

soler won't do the giro, he will do the tour and vuelta

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

soler simply cannot stay on the bike

and betancur and duarte both outweigh soler in climbing talent
they are much stronger than him.

ralso uyano from venezuela is stronger than soler ( considering both at their best peak)

unfortunately duarte will probably run to help sastre and eventually menchow
betancur team a&s probably will not be selected
it is very difficult to preview the condition in which soler and ruyano will be at the giro
it a pity that such a climbing army runs the risk of waste such a chance

in pure climbing talent no one is as talented as soler, only henao is in his league, duarte and betancourt certainly not, theyt aren't even pure climbers. duarte has always been an itt guy (and great downhiller) and rides the heavy gears like rujano, betancourt is not as explosive as soler

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I hear a lot of people saying Nibali based upon Liquigas having a strong team but assuming that Szmyd does the tour in support of Basso and Pellizotti leaves then who will Nibali have in the high mountains? I don't know too much about their new signings, but it seems to me that most if not all of their climbing domestiques have gone elsewhere

szmyd will do both giro and tour as usual

also ricco's itt is much underrated here

http://www.dewielersite.net/db2/wielersite/ritfiche.php?ritid=150636#first

 

[Barrus]

no,

wildcards are:

farnese, androni, acqua and colnago, euskaltel won;t ride

Euskaltel themselves said they would ride the giro

 

[Mellow Velo]

I think Menchov is hedging... Geox aren't certain starters in the TdF. He may need to target the Giro in order for them to get an invite there. It's much like Evans last year - he had to commit to riding the Giro to secure an invite, and he did that because there was no guarentee of a Tour invite.

I agree. He may not have a choice and has to take a serious look at a Giro return.

I also think that much of the route is taylor made for Menchov.
Much is being made of the amount of climbing and MTFs, but 3 or 4 of those finishes are right up Dennis's street, with long, steady gradients.
He has also shown he can climb with the best up the Fedaia/Marmorlada.
Then there are the trials.

All he has to conquer is Gardeccia, the Zoncolan and Finestre.
A piece of cake!

 

[whittashau]

szmyd will do both giro and tour as usual

I think this year showed that for szmyd to be useful at the tour he needs to skip the giro.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I think this year showed that for szmyd to be useful at the tour he needs to skip the giro.

maybe if he just doesn't do the dauphinee in between, szmyd always goes full at the dauphinee to win a stage

 

[Kvinto]

The comment was a bit of a joke.

But i remember that in the 20k Verona tt this year, Nibali took 11 seconds on Scarponi. So say he quintuples that in the 30k tt (which is being favourable) and gets a minute. A minute and a half is what Scarponi took on the Zoncolan.

I would also mention however that in the Kronplatz tt, Nibali beat Scarponi by about 5 or 6 seconds. So that boads well for him for the less mountinous tt on stage 15/16/17, one of those.

But another crucial point is i see Scarponi winning a stage. Nibali won Monte Grappa this year, but then i think he was aloud to go a bit on the descent because he was with Basso, and he wasnt the favourite. Also, he went for it cos he knew the next day it was going to be about Basso.

In fact Basso helped him a lot. I dont see Nibali sticking with Evans and Scarponi on Grappa and Scarponi on Mortirolo. I think they could have dropped him if they were fighting it out. But with Basso there they didnt try.

And in his gt which he won, he didnt take a stage.

The big variable is descents. I cant remember if Nibali has a lot of descents where he can take big time.

I also cant remember how many stages are mtfs, but any mtf, i see Nibali cracking.

First of all I want you to understand that I also think that Scarponi has better chances to win Giro but I would like to make some points clear:

Don’t forget that Nibali didn’t plan to ride 2010 Giro (almost like Contador 2008 ). He was there only because of Pelizotti investigation. And he finished on the podium what Scarponi and Evans couldn’t do.
As for mtfs I think it would be fair to consider this in the context of Vuelta (which he planned) and do it in the comparison with Rodriguez, Mosquera and Anton (I don’t think they are so weaker than Scarponi and Ricco). Races are different, contenders and mountains as well, it’s approximately but I think it’s fair comparison. So: St.11 Andorra (9,9km, 6,52% average): +0:23 to Anton, +0:20 to Mosquera, -0:36 to Rodriguez; St.14 Pena Cabarga (5,9km, 9,24% average, 18% max): +0:20 to Rodriguez -0:02 to Mosquera St.15 Lagos de Covadonga (12,5km, 7% average, 15% max): +0:11 to Mosquera and +0:00 to Rodriguez; St.16 Alto de Cotobello (10,1km, 8,15% average) +0:37 to Rodriguez and +0:19 to Mosquera; St.20 Bola del Mundo (21,6km, 6,26% average, 21% max): +0:01 to Mosquera and -0:22 to Rodriguez.
Nibali has been losing a time but not that much to say he has no chance to compete for the victory.
Then tts. You remind about Verona tt result. It was 15km and it wasn’t flat On the other hand Milan 32.8km ITT and Turin 21.5km TTT. Total plain. If to take into consideration Liquigas TTT abilities it’s like one 50km ITT for Nibali. I think these 2 tts can give him no less than -2:00 (I think -2:30) over Scarponi and even more over Anton and Ricco. Will it be enough? I don’t know, rather no. Many things are yet to reveal and looking forward to Zoncolan 2011 stage I still can’t imagine Scarponi winning 1:30 over Nibali there, if only Nibali hasn't a bad day. Vincenzo’s only problem is that the amount of such cruel mountain stages (where he can lose time) is a lot, rather too much for him…

 

[profff]

First of all I want you to understand that I also think that Scarponi has better chances to win Giro but I would like to make some points clear:

Don’t forget that Nibali didn’t plan to ride 2010 Giro (almost like Contador 2008 ). He was there only because of Pelizotti investigation. And he finished on the podium what Scarponi and Evans couldn’t do.
As for mtfs I think it would be fair to consider this in the context of Vuelta (which he planned) and do it in the comparison with Rodriguez, Mosquera and Anton (I don’t think they are so weaker than Scarponi and Ricco). Races are different, contenders and mountains as well, it’s approximately but I think it’s fair comparison. So: St.11 Andorra (9,9km, 6,52% average): +0:23 to Anton, +0:20 to Mosquera, -0:36 to Rodriguez; St.14 Pena Cabarga (5,9km, 9,24% average, 18% max): +0:20 to Rodriguez -0:02 to Mosquera St.15 Lagos de Covadonga (12,5km, 7% average, 15% max): +0:11 to Mosquera and +0:00 to Rodriguez; St.16 Alto de Cotobello (10,1km, 8,15% average) +0:37 to Rodriguez and +0:19 to Mosquera; St.20 Bola del Mundo (21,6km, 6,26% average, 21% max): +0:01 to Mosquera and -0:22 to Rodriguez.
Nibali has been losing a time but not that much to say he has no chance to compete for the victory.
Then tts. You remind about Verona tt result. It was 15km and it wasn’t flat On the other hand Milan 32.8km ITT and Turin 21.5km TTT. Total plain. If to take into consideration Liquigas TTT abilities it’s like one 50km ITT for Nibali. I think these 2 tts can give him no less than -2:00 (I think -2:30) over Scarponi and even more over Anton and Ricco. Will it be enough? I don’t know, rather no. Many things are yet to reveal and looking forward to Zoncolan 2011 stage I still can’t imagine Scarponi winning 1:30 over Nibali there, if only Nibali hasn't a bad day. Vincenzo’s only problem is that the amount of such cruel mountain stages (where he can lose time) is a lot, rather too much for him…

biggest problem for vincenzo will be 3 hard stages in a row in last week.
he showed he can climb decently in steep slopes, if he does not try to follow the sudden change of rhythm by the pure climber.
if he follows his pace he is not that bad and he has kept improving in that.
even in training , as stated by liquigas coach paolo slongo, he suffers the third day of consecutive hard work.the so called "tripletta"
recover will be very important in this year giro.
i am not sure that michele scarponi is better than vincenzo the squalo in that aspect. in the past, before the 2010 giro, he has never performed well in a 3 week GT