In 2006, in retirement from cycling having won his seventh Tour, Armstrong ran the New York City Marathon. He called it ''without a doubt the hardest physical thing I have ever done.'' He had sore shins and said he didn't train enough. He barely broke his goal of three hours, with 800-plus runners finishing ahead of him. It was pretty impressive for a marathon debut but hardly world class. If Armstrong did that run for fun drug-free, is that a good gauge of his natural athletic abilities?
''I think his New York marathon results are the closest we can get to understand how he'd perform alongside other non-doped athletes when he races without a needle. Good result, but definitely not someone you'd regard as the world's greatest endurance athlete,'' Australian anti-doping scientist Michael Ashenden said by email, responding to questions.
''Sport has thousands of athletes who succeed at under age or national level but who fail to emulate that success on the international stage. Everyone also realizes that winning a one-day world championship is not the same as winning a three-week major Tour. We have some insight into Armstrong's physiological limits from published results and those indicate he is a good athlete, capable of making a living as a pro. But his lab results definitely don't suggest he was great.''