Official thread - Stage 13 • Vittel - Colmar• 200 km

[Cobber]

Can't wait to see Lance crack when Evans/Schleckette attack on the Platzerwasel tomorrow.....

I vote for Leipheimer being the first to fall in the rain, and Evans for the win.
Well, I will keep dreaming anyway!

 

[Publicus]

Lance is expecting a tough day but no big changes in Stage 13:


www.cyclingnews.com/news/armstrong-eyeing-alps-for-aggression

I think Contador ends up in yellow (barring a crash of course).

 

[Bala Verde]

Is there a profile of the final climb. It has to be pretty hard considering its relative shortness. Since cyclingnews changed their format, they provide less information than they used to. Maybe I will check the official website.

Côte de Xertigny 2.0 km, avg. 5.3 %, Catégorie 3
Col de la Schlucht 8.9 km, avg. 4.2 %, Catégorie 2
Col du Platzerwasel 8.7 km, avg. 7.6 %, Catégorie 1
Col du Bannstein 2.1 km, avg. 5.1 %, Catégorie 3
Col du Firstplan 8.4 km, avg. 5.4 %, Catégorie 2

Last year we had this stage

A report of the stage is here.

The first group, led by CSC and Caisse d'Epargne riders, gave it full gas. leading the chasers by 30 seconds. The group included: Evans, Cioni, Sastre, Cancellara, Gustov, Schleck, Schleck, Voigt, Valverde, Pereiro, Sanchez, Kirchen, Lövkvist, Pozzato, Kreuziger, Nibali, Kohl, Valjavec, Menchov, Freire, Cobo, Ricco, Vaugrenard, Vande Velde and Millar.

Although this one might be more similar, to Bigorres.

 

[craig1985]

Nocentini will keep hold of the yellow jersey. I guess it is still in Astana's best interests to let him stay in yellow.

 

[Anonymous]

"Col du Firstplan 8.4 km, avg. 5.4 %, Catégorie 2" is listed on the map as a Cat 1

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

That depends on who attacks. If any of the near GC guys attack, Astana will follow.

There's also the question if Astana is going to try to TTT their way through the course to discourage attacks. I think they probably will try at least.

Contador could end up in yellow. Or someone could break and steal it by a few seconds, which wouldn't hurt Astana.

 

[Publicus]

Nocentini will keep hold of the yellow jersey. I guess it is still in Astana's best interests to let him stay in yellow.

It might be in there interest, but he's probably going to get blown out the back of Platzerwasel.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Nocentini will keep hold of the yellow jersey. I guess it is still in Astana's best interests to let him stay in yellow.

I don't see any evidence that he can climb well enough to stay in yellow.
Even if Astana wants him to stay in yellow, some of the others are likely to push the pace and Astana will have to follow, while Nocentini falls off.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Although this one might be more similar, to Bigorres.

Yes, and despite the two Cat 1s, it all came together for the contenders.

autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/tour08/?id=results/tour089#res

 

[Parrot23]

So who is the best 'wet weather descender with TT ability afterburner'. Chance Evans? Pelli ahead and Nibali from the elite pack? Lonely Linus? What about the diesel from Cottbus, since we are closing in on the German speaking region. I hope Jens will make my day.

We all know Leipheimer will go down like a deflated balloon, and with his wrist injury he could be in for a toughy tomorrow. Armstrong however could jump over Mr Contador, as I don't think he likes the rain too much...

Too bad for Riis, he commented that he didn't like the TdF so far either, too little action. I think he might have to reconsider his tactics tomorrow with the Schleques...

Not sure if Alberto is such a good descender. (Wonder if Sanchez from Caisse will help; isn't he a super descender?). Didn't they run forward Popo in a previous Tour to help Contador on a long descent.

Score one for Lance maybe (good descender, but then again he doesn't take unnecessary risks).

 

[Bainreese]

Someone is going to have to really want it. They are going to have to be off the front over the final climb and they are going to have to go balls out for the last 20k if they have any hope of staying away. That's more possible if they had 4-5 off the front, but getting 4-5 guys who can all hang relatively close on the climb and make it over before the big boys catch them just isn't all that probable.

It is fairly disappointing that the organization didn't put together better stages. It's a waste of a mountain stage to have it end with 20k of downhill to the finish.

If I were the conspiracy type, I might think the organizers were trying to give non-climbers a real shot at the yellow this year in Paris. But I'm not.

Should be interesting to see what does happen tomorrow.

 

[Parrot23]

Could we please call people by their proper names, at least in this forum?

(With the exception of 'Schleklet', because that's not derogatory, just cute!)

LOL, should have seen descriptions of his descending at Giro, by either Bala or Mellow Velo:

"Descends like a bag of wet cement" or "an open paper box", etc.

He's not gonna like tomorrow if it rains after hitting the ground hard today. Not envious of him/them descending in rain.

 

[hfer07]

I just hope & pray that on stage 13 we finally have a good battle happening between the favorites-otherwise this tour is going to go on control damage all the way to the Ventoux........

 

[Publicus]

Not sure if Alberto is such a good descender. (Wonder if Sanchez from Caisse will help; isn't he a super descender?). Didn't they run forward Popo in a previous Tour to help Contador on a long descent.

Score one for Lance maybe (good descender, but then again he doesn't take unnecessary risks).

I don't think he's bad, but he's certainly not known for it. If Sanchez is there, I would expect to him to provide the assist. And yes, they sent Popo in a break in 2007 to help Contador once he came over the top of the penultimate climb.

At the end of the day, if the roads are wet, I wouldn't count that in any one's favor. There's an 80% chance of rain tomorrow. It's going to be ugly.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Okay, I'm steeling myself for the probability of another stage where nothing happens.

I guess we have to wait until Sunday.

 

[lone_cowboy]

Lets hope they dont play by LA's rules and wait until he says it is ok to attack. If schlecks, Sastre and Evans grow some balls this could be a stage of big movers.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Lets hope they dont play by LA's rules and wait until he says it is ok to attack. If schlecks, Sastre and Evans grow some balls this could be a stage of big movers.

That would be great but I don't dare hope for it... too likely to be disappointed.

I think most of the teams have given up on the GC and are going to try really hard to get in a break and win this stage. I'm just looking forward to see how all that pans out, expecting the GC contenders to come in together a few minutes behind whoever wins. If there is some action among the GC contenders, that would be great.

But Alberto should be in yellow tomorrow. I wonder how that's going to affect Lance's psyche?

In his 7 wins, was there every any true GC contender besides Lance in yellow at any time? I don't think there was! I think this is really going to mess with his head, perhaps causing him to wake up at 3am and concoct a scheme to keep it from happening!

He'll probably go to the standings and pick someone who is not a real threat, but close enough to gain enough time to get ahead of Alberto in a break. How about Luis León Sánchez at 2:16? He only needs 2:10 to get ahead of Alberto, and Lance can probably convince Johann to convince Alberto that it's "too early for us to take yellow - let's help Sanchez get it...".

Okay, that's my pick... Luis León Sánchez, and the Astana lead "heads of state" groupetto will come in at about 2:20-2:45 after him. LOL.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Yes, and despite the two Cat 1s, it all came together for the contenders.

Which is why I don't have a lot of hope for tomorrow's stage. Nor the climb to Verbier, really. But the weather could really change things. Too bad we didn't also get the stage with no radios. That would have really made things fun.

It's going to be ugly.

Ugly as in cool!

 

[Ninety5rpm]

That would be great but I don't dare hope for it... too likely to be disappointed.

I think most of the teams have given up on the GC and are going to try really hard to get in a break and win this stage. I'm just looking forward to see how all that pans out, expecting the GC contenders to come in together a few minutes behind whoever wins. If there is some action among the GC contenders, that would be great.

But Alberto should be in yellow tomorrow. I wonder how that's going to affect Lance's psyche?

In his 7 wins, was there every any true GC contender besides Lance in yellow at any time? I don't think there was! I think this is really going to mess with his head, perhaps causing him to wake up at 3am and concoct a scheme to keep it from happening!

He'll probably go to the standings and pick someone who is not a real threat, but close enough to gain enough time to get ahead of Alberto in a break. How about Luis León Sánchez at 2:16? He only needs 2:10 to get ahead of Alberto, and Lance can probably convince Johann to convince Alberto that it's "too early for us to take yellow - let's help Sanchez get it...".

Okay, that's my pick... Luis León Sánchez, and the Astana lead "heads of state" groupetto will come in at about 2:20-2:45 after him. LOL.

To expand on this, not only is the stage win up for grabs tomorrow, but so is the yellow jersey... assuming Nocentini cannot keep up with the pace set on the final climbs.

There are quite a few guys besides Sanchez who could potentially get in a break tomorrow and take the yellow, and I really think Lance is going to convince Bruyneel that it is in their interest to allow that to happen (the real reason being to keep AC out of yellow).

Okay, this stage could end up being very interesting even if there is no change among the real GC contenders.

 

[DenisMenchov]

This looks easy in the beggining but it is real monster in the end

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

his looks easy in the beggining but it is real monster in the end[/quote]
Can you post a bigger version perhaps?!

I think Ninety5's assessment is probably as good as any I've heard.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

This looks easy in the beggining but it is real monster in the end

Well, one obvious place to attack, from the back, is in that 5% section on Hairpin 2 at about 830 meters elevation. If you can get up a speed while still behind the group, right as they hit the bottom of the 9%, that should make for a very effective launch.

But who can build up enough of a gap in 3km of 9% climbing, even with that slight headstart, to hold them off on the 25k descent, and then up and over the next two climbs, and then the final 20k descent?

It's going to hurt, but not enough to create gaps among the GC contenders, I don't think.

 

[patswana]

SchleckA, Sastre, Evans & Menchov will try but will fail.

Astana will TTT to the end with at least four riders. It will be like Gewiss all over again.

 

[180mmCrank]

Can you post a bigger version perhaps?! .

Maybe it's actual size!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REpLvjDcM1E

 

[180mmCrank]

As suggested I think we will some attacks - and it will be interesting to see how people respond. I think there are some tired legs out there. I don't think we'll see any winning moves but we could see some folk implode.

Not sure what i think about the rain - I am not a big fan of people losing the Tour because they slip off the side of a hill into a ditch.

But it may give some one a chance to make a move on the run into the finish

Forecast seems to indicate rain late morning and chance of it continuing into the afternoon. So does look like they are going to get wet.