Official thread - TdF Stage 5 Cap d'Agde-Perpignan (197.0km)

[Amsterhammer]

Long, flat, windy, two bumps, chalk three for the Cav.

 

[Bala Verde]

Your analysis is impeccable. Ok, next, stage 6...

although the finish has a gradual incline (false flat, till 500m or 250m before the line) so perhaps power house Boonen or Hushovd could start the sprint a little early and make the competition for green a tad more interesting...

 

[benpounder]

If there is wind, look for a split. Actually, I expect certain teams to try and create a split.

 

[Publicus]

If there is wind, look for a split. Actually, I expect certain teams to try and create a split.

I expect Astana will be bunched toward the front most of the day.

 

[Baggins27]

After the split the other day, these stages are likely to become a bit more lively..... there will be some nervous teams out there tomorrow.

As Publicus says though, I'd expect Astana and GC guys to be VERY close to the front all day!

 

[mambo#5]

Another Cav win. Next..................

 

[ekovitch]

I think that we are going to see a breakaway tomorrow. No help for Columbia to chase anyone down, just to see Cav win again, and again, and again, and...

 

[Mellow Velo]

The stretch from Leucate, is down a causeway, between salt lakes and the Med.
It is one of the windiest places I have ever experienced. Blew a gale, solidly, for two weeks in August.
Could be mayhem, again.....
.....then again, Perpignan forecast: NW 9 mph

 

[richwagmn]

I expect Astana will be bunched toward the front most of the day.

Especially a certain rider named Alberto.

 

[amp300]

I'm going with Thor for the win, also I am predicting a crash that will take at least two riders out of the race, because of all the focus on staying near the front (hoping that isn't the case).

 

[Baggins27]

The stretch from Leucate, is down a causeway, between salt lakes and the Med.
It is one of the windiest places I have ever experienced. Blew a gale, solidly, for two weeks in August.
Could be mayhem, again.....
.....then again, Perpignan forecast: NW 9 mph

Hopefully we'll get some crosswind fun again.

If we don't though I can't see anyone helping Columbia pull back the inevitable break so they'll be doing it on their own. Would be interesting to see what happened if Columbia didn't try to pull it back...... however I s'pose that is unlikely.

 

[benpounder]

Hopefully we'll get some crosswind fun again.
[...]
Would be interesting to see what happened if Columbia didn't try to pull it back..

Depends who is in the break. I dont think any team wants to see a replay of Oscar Pereiro's 2006 break. Garate, Arroyo, Efimkin or to like could get into a break, but I'd think the GC teams would keep them on a very short leash.

 

[Bala Verde]

I could see some RAB/SIL action if it's really windy after a turn. Menchov and Cadel need time, and they have v. Avermaet and Freire who could battle it out at the finish. Especially SIL is the team that can work hard on the flats, and contribute to regaining time now as opposed to the mountains where they'll play second fiddle. If they, or either, can force the peloton to break up in 'waaiers', it could be fun. I believe especially dutch and belgian teams have a knack for that type of riding. If Breukink had the guts, and the climatic conditions favour such a tactical plan, a Paris Nice repeat would be lovely...

On the other hand, after yesterday, surely everyone will have read the 'course book' in some detail...

keeping my fingers crossed

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Does have wind written all over it - along with "Cav wins sprint" - but I do think others will contend more here. Let's hope for a break that holds. That would be good to see, though it may be until Stage 6 on Thursday before we see a real break that stays away. That stage is prime for a breakaway.

And keep your fingers crossed regarding crashes. So far no major pile-ups taking GC men out. Though I agree, we're likely to see some real bunching and high speeds in the last 30km or so.

 

[Publicus]

I could see some RAB/SIL action if it's really windy after a turn. Menchov and Cadel need time, and they have v. Avermaet and Freire who could battle it out at the finish. Especially SIL is the team that can work hard on the flats, and contribute to regaining time now as opposed to the mountains where they'll play second fiddle. If they, or either, can force the peloton to break up in 'waaiers', it could be fun. I believe especially dutch and belgian teams have a knack for that type of riding. If Breukink had the guts, and the climatic conditions favour such a tactical plan, a Paris Nice repeat would be lovely...

On the other hand, after yesterday, surely everyone will have read the 'course book' in some detail...

keeping my fingers crossed

I'm going to guess that Contador will have his ar$e in the right spot tomorrow.

 

[Grater]

Does have wind written all over it - along with "Cav wins sprint" - but I do think others will contend more here. Let's hope for a break that holds. That would be good to see, though it may be until Stage 6 on Thursday before we see a real break that stays away. That stage is prime for a breakaway.

And keep your fingers crossed regarding crashes. So far no major pile-ups taking GC men out. Though I agree, we're likely to see some real bunching and high speeds in the last 30km or so.

If and I mean if there is a break that will last, it will be today or saturday.

Reasoning.

Unless Silence or Rabobank split the peloton, a break survives today.

Tomorrow I don't think will be a break. I think Columbia or even Saxo might control the pace enough to set up the win for Kirchen or Andy Schleck. Tomorrow suits a classics specialist - and a finish similar to stage 1 last year. But again, the break could go away tomorrow.

 

[Anonymous]

What will be interesting is if the other teams learn from, frankly the whipping that columbia gave them on monday and actually do some work.. if not after a rest day yesterday columbia could dish out more of the same.. (i think though col will be happy with a breakaway, riders stealing the sprint points plays perfectly into their tactics for green.. cavs weekness last year, and boonen and hushovds strength was picking up points at the intermediates)

as for stage winner, too easy to say cav so im going to stick my neck out and go with haussler having a dig about 400 metres out.

 

[Mellow Velo]

If the various forecasts are to be believed, wind may now not be a factor.
10mphish, from the NW means from inland, (Perpignan airport) rather than off the sea.
All the signs are a break will go and maybe, this time, Columbia may not chase, at least, not alone.
Not long to the hills. Rogers and Monfort, maybe Martin too, have to come into the equation.
Would be a laugh, if Riis lets a few rabbits take yellow and the top of the GC classment, demoting the Astana 4 and deflating all the hot air around here.

It's sad to find so many new threads, but only one worth the effort of a comment.

Edit: Having said that. Reports from Perpignan, on another forum, is that it's very windy. Another gives a 50kph crosswind.

 

[msjett]

I could see some RAB/SIL action if it's really windy after a turn. Menchov and Cadel need time, and they have v. Avermaet and Freire who could battle it out at the finish. Especially SIL is the team that can work hard on the flats, and contribute to regaining time now as opposed to the mountains where they'll play second fiddle. If they, or either, can force the peloton to break up in 'waaiers', it could be fun. I believe especially dutch and belgian teams have a knack for that type of riding. If Breukink had the guts, and the climatic conditions favour such a tactical plan, a Paris Nice repeat would be lovely...

On the other hand, after yesterday, surely everyone will have read the 'course book' in some detail...

keeping my fingers crossed

I hope you are right Bala, and the lotto and Rabo lads put their heads together and create an interesting stage. I think it would be a smart move and definitely one way to make up time...I can't see Menchov or Evans slipping off in a break away...nice thought though? Just couldn't imagine it happening or succeeding.

fingers are crossed here too

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Voeckler, Geslin and Sapa in the break. Hutarovich, Ignatiev and Timmer trying to bridge. letour.com live ticker.

 

[ekovitch]

Depends who is in the break. I dont think any team wants to see a replay of Oscar Pereiro's 2006 break. Garate, Arroyo, Efimkin or to like could get into a break, but I'd think the GC teams would keep them on a very short leash.

I actually see this as a very likely scenario. If you are Saxo, or Cervelo, or Caisse, or any team that HAD GC dreams, your race is almost over at this point, so the best way to disrupt things would be a long break and make Astana chase you down. After their big effort yesterday, I am not sure that Astana has the strength, or even if they do run down a big break today, I would hit them again tomorrow, and then hope that they are tired out for this weekend's mountain stages.

All those who think that this TdF is going to be a cake walk for Astana are WRONG, the fun is just beginning.

 

[39*23t]

today could see a breakaway with columbia being the only team that normally does the final chasedown and after two hard days for them maybe Voeckler can hang on for a win.

edit: err scratch that chavanel reckons they working for Tom today guess it's cav or tom depending who has leftover legs from yesterday

 

[ak-zaaf]

according to the live rider stats the peloton is gaining speed.

still only 35 km/h tho.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Had a look at Leucate's weather forcast, for later.
25C and 55 km/h NW.

 

[El Imbatido]

If Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov want to do something, stages 9 & 10 would be the obvious choices as they are the "no race radio days" and there is more of a chance of getting in a break and the break also staying away.

And if Lance wants to organise a protest on these days, BOOM!!! Cadel and menchov straight up the road.