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Official thread- TDF Stage 7 Barcelone - Andorre Arcalis 224km

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Mar 3, 2009
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Blakeslee said:
I'm still disappointed that Fabian didn't give Ben a kiss on the cheek ;)

Funny, I was hoping Fabian would break his legs. :)

Blakeslee said:
I have a feeling the stage is going to end up being a bit anti-climatic.

You could be right, but I'm choosing to believe otherwise for now. It's been enjoyable having some less than predictable outcomes thus far, I'd like to see that continue.

Thanks
Greg Johnson
 
Mar 10, 2009
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aarnold517 said:
I thought I remembered reading somewhere Moncoutie saying if he was not in the top 10 of KOM by the end of the first week he would not go for it. Regardless of whether it's tomorrow or one of the next days he is definitely going to be in a long break one of these days. He has already lost a ton of time so that he has the freedom to get in one of these breaks and take the polka dot.

Hmm if that's the case, then he might actually go for it tomorrow! Love to see that happening, a small group with good but not GC climbers...Hopefully Laurens ten Dam can try and join them :D If the GC contenders keep their cool and just test each other a little (like first mountain stage giro) they could stay away the whole stage...

Although Sunday's stage 1-HC yields 15+20=35 and seems to have a higher succes rate for less effort (176K only vs 224)...
 
Mar 18, 2009
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For my two cents worth....I think that Evans, Sastre, Menchov and Baby Schlek will be on short leashes, those currently in the higher positions will not let them ride away, so they may make up some time, but not all that they need. I think Evans little sprint last night was a "I am still here", he didn't need to sprint at all, but hey it was good to see him go with them.

It should be a good stage, but from what I heard they were predicting bad weather(although that may have changed), which could mean carnage, look at the accidents last stage.

Am looking forward to another long night on the couch watching.
 
Grater said:
Mick Rogers and/or Denis Menchov get in the break today and stays away

Vinokourov lost time on one stage by crashing or getting held up, next stage he made a statement

Landis did the same

Will Rogers do it? If he has the legs, he'll get in today's break.

Before his crash yesterday I'd say it's exactly what he would have done. He will probably be a bit stiff though so he might try and just ease through tomorrow.

I don't think any break will stay away. Astana has too much time and this is one of only a few stages the other contenders have a chance to get real time back.

Saxo will push hard for most of the day for the rare chance that Spartacus can keep yellow, but mainly for Andy. Andy or Sastre will go very early on Arcalis and might not be followed immediately. The Astana train will get going (AK, LL, Popo?) and try and chase them down with LA/AC staying cool. The remainders - Evans/Kreuziger/Nibali/Frank/Menchov (needs some blood desperately!) and some Spaniards probably can't go past Astana but will only fall back if AC attacks, which will not happen unless he's losing big time to someone up the road.
 
Jul 6, 2009
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I hope to see lots of mini-attacks. Guys like ASchleck and Contador are bound to be itching to get out of the saddle and strut their stuff up a steep little climb :) But in the end, I think that all the main GCers and climbers finish together or very close to each other (someone will get dropped - some one who is expected to be good always ends up having a bad day and doens't quite make it) and that while there will likely be a mix up in the top 10, I think it will be more of a "shuffle". Astana 2-5 will end up holding 2 or 3 of the top 5, with a few dropping out of the top 5 and into the top 10. Who ends up in yellow? Not sure, but I wouldn't bet money against AC OR LA. I can see them plus Koden plus Schlecks finishing together, or I can see Lance sitting with the rest of the GCers and letting the young guys Andy and Alberto duke it out, THAT would be fun to watch.

At zero seconds down and Fabian not known for climbing, this is probably Lance's best chance at Yellow, wouldn't you think? Astana has such a big cushion, and they obviously plan to ride out front to protect their multiple contenders, it may be boring to us, but I don't see why they have to do anything tomorrow other than send out any one or two of about 5 guys to chase down attacks.

Really REALLY want to see Andy v. Alberto on a section of some mountain stage.
 
Thoughtforfood said:
If it happens, lets hope whomever it is has more class than Ben Stiller
bettiniphoto_0040644_1_fulltn_600.jpg


He pouted almost the whole time.

With that yellow bracelet it looks like he is still in full genius mode.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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I think Menchovs and Evans wont be chased by saxo or astana on today's stage if they have a dig. I think Astana will be focusing on Saxo and Saste. (and each other)
 
Jun 22, 2009
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bala verde said:
hmm if that's the case, then he might actually go for it tomorrow! Love to see that happening, a small group with good but not gc climbers...hopefully laurens ten dam can try and join them :d if the gc contenders keep their cool and just test each other a little (like first mountain stage giro) they could stay away the whole stage...

Although sunday's stage 1-hc yields 15+20=35 and seems to have a higher succes rate for less effort (176k only vs 224)...

LTD for polka baby :D
 
kriztobal said:
This is my prediction for tomorrow:
(Please comment, and make other rankings):

1. A Contador
2. C Sastre
3. C Evans
4. A Schleck
5. D Menchov
6-10: Klöden, Nibali, Leipheimer, Efimkin, Kreuziger
10+ Armstrong, Hincapie, VandeVelde, F Schleck, Pellitzotti, Martin, Arroyo, Anton.

Have I forgotten someone..? I feel so right now...

Well I agree with you (almost completely) on this, but IMHO you forgot L.L. Sanchez
 
Going to go with Contador in a full-on assault. I think the guy is highly motivated.

But there's a chance there's something behind the curtain I'm not accounting for here, and the moderate gradient, especially at the top, could facilitate a "Postal train" which could help Lance, especially if Astana sticks together until the end. If that's so, Contador could fade, and something like BroDeal's names could happen with Kreuziger, Moncoutier, Schlekette jumping out 2-3k from the finish to win by a handful of seconds.
 
Mar 11, 2009
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Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
I think Menchovs and Evans wont be chased by saxo or astana on today's stage if they have a dig. I think Astana will be focusing on Saxo and Saste. (and each other)
I agree, or is it just wishful thinking on my behalf for Cadel.
 
Jul 7, 2009
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kriztobal said:
This is my prediction for tomorrow:
(Please comment, and make other rankings):

1. A Contador
2. C Sastre
3. C Evans
4. A Schleck
5. D Menchov
6-10: Klöden, Nibali, Leipheimer, Efimkin, Kreuziger
10+ Armstrong, Hincapie, VandeVelde, F Schleck, Pellitzotti, Martin, Arroyo, Anton.

Have I forgotten someone..? I feel so right now...

You might not be far off, but I think Schleck will hold on longer than Sastre. Sastre is never good in the first week of the tour. Always best in the 3rd week (And he hit the asphalt yesterday. Not bad though.) I think either Klöden or Levi will drag Armstrong up those last kms. Menchov, I'm really uncertain of. You never see guys riding as good as he was in the Giro doing good in le tour. A tough Giro-ride comes to close to the tour. I don't think he'll be top 10 today.
 
Apr 27, 2009
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Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
I think Menchovs and Evans wont be chased by saxo or astana on today's stage if they have a dig. I think Astana will be focusing on Saxo and Saste. (and each other)

Evans is a marked man by Astana. AC and co have good time on him and they will want to keep it that way. He might be down on time - but if he cant make the time back he is probabaly the biggest threat. They do not want to be close on terms with Evans come the IT.
 
May 6, 2009
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53x11 in DC said:
greeting sfrom Andorra-la-Vella. after getting my **** kicked on Col du Granon two days ago and facing a 25km/hr headwind on the Lauteret yesterday, I escaped the Alps, driving 10 hours down here this morn. Looking forward top an early morning "jaunt" and an interminable wait for the fireworks. Hoping there is a big screen atop Arcalis like Tignes had in '07.

Anyhoo - wow... this will be interesting. MellowVelo, I haven't has a chance to check the threads, but I have to imagine you are none too happy with the state of affairs - understandable. The fact that the Schlecks, Cadel, Denis and Carlos are in dire straits kinda $uck$, even for me. I was hoping for tomorrow to be the kick-off of a wide-open affair. Now it's primarily going to be a intra-squad sociological case study, like '85, and '86. I do hope that ASch or Sast can pull off a one-day exploit, but I fear that's all it will be.

Few thoughts to get caught up.... tired of reading Brunel's drivel in l'Equipe.... amused by the utter jublilation displayed by the race organizers on France2 when LA came up .22 short - sadly goofy, they were... loving Aldag and Stapleton's daily lash-outs and the *** at the back of the peloton... "if they don't want to win, they'll suffer"... "I'm not sure if some teams are actually racing the Tour this year"... LA was 100% justified in being in the echelon... shame on AC for riding like Danielson that day... good on JV for his TTT strategy - very unique approach... chapeau to the little chunk-meister Voeckler, though when Jensy basically told him pre-stage that they would not chase, welllll... sad to see Tyler can't even get out of the slipstream of the Manxman - not a reflection on TF, more just a statement about Cav's scary strength...

OK - time for bed. Look for the Voeckler-sized dude in red and white about 2km from the finish. I'll be holding a "ThoughtforFood for WADA President" sign!!

Worth staying up for :D
 
Spain is up in arms about AC's relative position in the team to LA.

I predict a Spanish attack on Astana rather than a team-based attack. They have good climbers. If some reasonably high on GC Spaniards attack at full speed, AC will go with them. LA will be dropped and the leadership issue will be forced in AC's favour.
 
Mar 19, 2009
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1. Sastre

2. Contador +1.04

3. Sanchez +1.04

4. A Schleck +1.04

5. Evans +1.04

6. Kreuziger +1.04

7. Armstrong and the rest of the group +1.38

Not sure about Menchov!

I would think that Sastre might do what he did in the Giro and they main contenders will give him that. Contador will follow Schleck and bring Sanchez with him or Sanchez will attack. Naturally Evans will attempt the move and be successful with the strong Liquigas unit sending Kreu up the road.

Contador takes yellow! - Then sacrifices it tomorrow to a break or keeps it with the break being successful.

I see something like that.
 
Wergeland said:
How is Tony Martin's climbing skills? Can he follow Kreuz and Nibali today?
Unlikely. He went well in the Tour de Suisse, but it was "soft".
I'm hoping the Green team can mix it up, simply to keep the race interesting.

The 15% ramp is just as they come out of Andorra town. It is neither long enough, or close enough to the finish for much to happen. What follows are a number of low % kms.
 
Mar 18, 2009
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Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
I think Menchovs and Evans wont be chased by saxo or astana on today's stage if they have a dig. I think Astana will be focusing on Saxo and Saste. (and each other)

After thinking the big teams would keep them on short leashes, I did think it could be a good tactic to let evans or menchov get yellow, neither team is particularly strong at the moment, and the big teams could pound the crap out of them while they try to defend. ;)
 
Wergeland said:
The tv-teams are driving up to Arcalis now and reporting nice weather.

Fantastic. It's going to be a great stage. I shall avoid this thread like the plage this afternoon. This evening I will have to boot my missus off the big TV for an hour.

How she'll handle missing one hour of property makeover programme repeats I don't know. No doubt she'll make me suffer for it in some unforseen manner.:(
 
Jun 22, 2009
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msjett said:
After thinking the big teams would keep them on short leashes, I did think it could be a good tactic to let evans or menchov get yellow, neither team is particularly strong at the moment, and the big teams could pound the crap out of them while they try to defend. ;)

Oh i doubt they'd let them get yellow, that would be a mistake to let them back in the race. but im sure they would let them get about a minute or two up the road.

I'm gonna be optimistic, and say mennchov for the win.
I also expect to see someone like Astarloza in the break today
 

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