Official Valverde thread.

[BigMac]

Its not a direct comparison between one ascent and another. Sure there are plenty of variables that could result in 2011 being ridden slower than 2014 that have nothing to do with doping.

But what Valverde did was set the record. That means he didn't just beat 2011. He beat every year. A much bigger sample. And the bigger the sample the more the variables even themselves out.

Beating the entire sample, by 3 seconds, means that even if you have certain advantages that particular year, its still suspicious.

It is a comparison from the previous time over which Valverde put the new record. What I mean is that, following the logic, and knowing that the record had been established in 2011, and believing that this year there were variables that caused a more rapid rise, it is perfectly normal and nothing suspicious he annihilated all the other times. It is logical that in 2011, these same variables have provided a more rapid rise in relation to the previously established record.

Following your logic, whenever a new record is established, this should be considered suspect because it effectively outperformed all previous. For example, the 50th record is suspect because it broke all previous. 2011 was suspect. So was 2010. And so was Rebellin's 2007.

 

[The Hitch]

Following your logic, whenever a new record is established, this should be considered suspect because it effectively outperformed all previous. For example, the 50th record is suspect because it broke all previous. 2011 was suspect. So was 2010. And so was Rebellin's 2007.

Well, yes.

You are right about the bigger sample but I noticed one interesting thing about the times from vetoo(which they noted), especially the EPO 90s is that the bunch never came together to the bottom of the Mur like they did from 2004 onward. For example the infamous 94 Fleche is well slow in comparison but then those guys rode a 3 man TTT for was it 50-60k before the ascent of the Mur.

I think the speed of the main bunch on arrival at the 1km banner can have a big impact on the overall ascent speed as well as other factors, as you noted. If the time this year is faster due to doping, are we to assume that last year Purito was clean or do we believe that if he had still been in contention this year, he would have been up there as well.

The modern Flech seem's to be a different affair to those of the 90s in particular and they don't seem to have records before that but I assume were slower as well.

Yes in the 90's it was raced differently, but that still leaves around 10 editions where it was raced waiting more or less for the final hill, which includes wins from the likes of Rebellin, Valverde himself, Kirchen.

I don't think high speeds are decisive in and of themselves, I can understand some times even clean athletes might go very fast, but they can be more damaging when taken with other contexts. With Valverde for example, like with this other guy last year in July, its not just that the speed was broken on one particular climb, but that the rider has been on top form all season so far. He's been holding a peak for nearly 2 months now, and judging by last year he'll continue to hold it for a good while yet. Some riders go well because their season is based around that race, its their main aim, their top peak.
This isn't even Valverde's number 1 priority, - the TDF is. Hell, it probably lags behind the home world championship peak he'll have in late September, and maybe a bridge peak between the 2 if he has it for the Vuelta. On top of that he was already toying with everyone in races a month and a half ago. And in the middle of all that he pulls a FW record.

 

[Nederick]

I bet all these returned from sanction riders who are winning now, must be pi55ed off at how much money they blew on their medical programs. When all along they could have saved $ and been winning clean anyway. They got duped, yes?

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Ah, the arms race. It was predicted. We already started to see its effects last year. It's time. Tour de Fukushima this July.

"At some point in time, people have to accept that performances are going to move forward. If we always hold back, and say, here is some data from people who were doping, then if we draw a line, we can then deduce that anyone crossing that line must also be doping. Well, that’s false. They do not have to be doping, because the whole human race moves forward. At some point in time, clean performances will surpass the doped performances in the past."--David Brailsford.

 

[mewmewmew13]

"At some point in time, people have to accept that performances are going to move forward. If we always hold back, and say, here is some data from people who were doping, then if we draw a line, we can then deduce that anyone crossing that line must also be doping. Well, that’s false. They do not have to be doping, because the whole human race moves forward. At some point in time, clean performances will surpass the doped performances in the past."--David Brailsford.

I was just going to post this

great minds

 

[ChewbaccaD]

I bet all these returned from sanction riders who are winning now, must be pi55ed off at how much money they blew on their medical programs. When all along they could have saved $ and been winning clean anyway. They got duped, yes?

This.............

 

[ChewbaccaD]

I was just going to post this

great minds

I'm just amazed that Brailsford was the nexus of the evolution of the human race. Usually, it takes millions of years. Brailsford did it in one.

hothra is right. Many of us were predicting exactly what we're seeing in 2014...and lots of others talked about how absurd that idea was.

Thanks Sky. Thanks Froomdog.

 

[mewmewmew13]

I'm just amazed that Brailsford was the nexus of the evolution of the human race. Usually, it takes millions of years. Brailsford did it in one.

hothra is right. Many of us were predicting exactly what we're seeing in 2014...and lots of others talked about how absurd that idea was.

Thanks Sky. Thanks Froomdog.

And Matt White says everyone just wants to forget about it ..

the Tour will be amazing

 

[Dear Wiggo]

the Tour will be amazing

In 2013, I got the impression Froome was rarely being pushed, and Michelle Cound says Froome finished the 2012 Tour in good condition - not tired.

It would be good to see 3-4 people pushing each other at the pointy end, to really extract their peak performances. Stop this pvssyfooting around.

Horner, Valverde, Contador, Froome. Plus a few others going for long breakaway opportunistic time gaps.

Bring it.

 

[Ripper]

1,3km climb at 9,3%, sprint from a small group. Absolutely Valverde territory, and this kind of race is an area where Froome has never shown anything in his career and where apart from a couple of showings with a lot of potential back in 2010, Contador hasn't either.

Valverde has been ludicrous-strong so far this season, but Flèche is a race that he could win any year, full Fuentes program or not. Nobody's going to argue that Ally Vally is clean, but today's win to me did not stand out as much as Roma Maxima.

Yup, today's was a good race with a well timed final sprint right in AV's 'zone'. Not saying he's clean, but this is certainly not indicative of GT performance.

 

[proffate]

In 2013, I got the impression Froome was rarely being pushed, and Michelle Cound says Froome finished the 2012 Tour in good condition - not tired.

It would be good to see 3-4 people pushing each other at the pointy end, to really extract their peak performances. Stop this pvssyfooting around.

Horner, Valverde, Contador, Froome. Plus a few others going for long breakaway opportunistic time gaps.

Bring it.

I don't think that's very likely tactically. In stage races you always have to worry about tomorrow and keep something in reserve. Not everyone is willing to risk losing a GT podium for an outside shot at second place, for example.

 

[red_flanders]

In 2013, I got the impression Froome was rarely being pushed, and Michelle Cound says Froome finished the 2012 Tour in good condition - not tired.

It would be good to see 3-4 people pushing each other at the pointy end, to really extract their peak performances. Stop this pvssyfooting around.

Horner, Valverde, Contador, Froome. Plus a few others going for long breakaway opportunistic time gaps.

Bring it.

100% spot on all the way.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I don't think that's very likely tactically. In stage races you always have to worry about tomorrow and keep something in reserve.

If you were clean? Yes, most definitely.

 

[The Hitch]

"At some point in time, people have to accept that performances are going to move forward. If we always hold back, and say, here is some data from people who were doping, then if we draw a line, we can then deduce that anyone crossing that line must also be doping. Well, that’s false. They do not have to be doping, because the whole human race moves forward. At some point in time, clean performances will surpass the doped performances in the past."--David Brailsford.

At some point in time, people are going to have to accept that standards for suspicion are going to move forward. If we always hold back and say, here is some data from people who were caught doping, then if we draw a line, we can then deduce that anyone not crossing that line must also be clean. Well that's false. They do not have to test positive to be doping, because doping methods move forward. At some point in time a positive test will not be the only requirement to justify an argument that someone is doping.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

At some point in time, people are going to have to accept that standards for suspicion are going to move forward. If we always hold back and say, here is some data from people who were caught doping, then if we draw a line, we can then deduce that anyone not crossing that line must also be clean. Well that's false. They do not have to test positive to be doping, because doping methods move forward. At some point in time a positive test will not be the only requirement to justify an argument that someone is doping.

Brilliant!!!

 

[proffate]

Gilbert has a habit of annihilating everyone early then sitting up and coasting the last 100m to bask in his own glory. Not the best way to set a record. Valverde's win was much less dominant looking and also he pushed all the way to the line. So just looking at the record alone is I think a red herring. The thing is, we know valverde was/is dirty so there's not too much to discuss and in any argument you can fall back to his sanction as proof you're right he's a doper, but no one denies that.

 

[Justico]

So fanboys are gonna repeat Brailsford/Vaughters meme's in their favorite doper thread from now on?

 

[Netserk]

So fanboys are gonna repeat Brailsford/Vaughters meme's in their favorite doper thread from now on?

Why do you hate excellence?

 

[Justico]

Why do you hate excellence?

I hate fanboys disguised as anti doping crusaders.

 

[The Hitch]

Gilbert has a habit of annihilating everyone early then sitting up and coasting the last 100m to bask in his own glory. Not the best way to set a record. Valverde's win was much less dominant looking and also he pushed all the way to the line. So just looking at the record alone is I think a red herring.

Again, there is a difference between these 2 sentences

A) He beat Gilbert's 2011 time
B) He set the record

 

[The Hitch]

I hate fanboys disguised as anti doping crusaders.

Hey, give martin a break, he hasn't even posted in the thread yet

 

[Benotti69]

Hey, give martin a break, he hasn't even posted in the thread yet

oooh he is gonna post a picture that will slap you down so hard it will make you cry.................laughing

 

[ChewbaccaD]

So fanboys are gonna repeat Brailsford/Vaughters meme's in their favorite doper thread from now on?

If this is directed at me...evidently, you have no idea just how hilarious calling me a fanboy is...

There was so much sarcasm dripping from my post that you're gonna' have to wash your shoes off.

 

[BigMac]

He beat Gilbert's record who had beat the previous record set by whoever beat the record before that. Of course if he beat Gilbert's 2011 time, he set the record. Isn't it only logic that we compare the new record with the previous one?

A quick look at Jens' site tells us that since 2004, the peloton has reached the base of the Mur in compact formation, so we should cont out all other years out as it would not be logical nor coherent to compare them. That was the year Rebellin set a new historic record of 2.46 minutes. Since then, that record has only been beaten 4 times (2007 by Rebellin himself; 2010 by Cadel, Purito and Contador; Gilbert the next year; Now Valverde). Placing the variables Hitch mentioned before between these four, why is it suspicious, considering we had a very strong pace coning into the climb, a strong compact group, with always someone pulling hard, until Valverde eventually got away in the last meters. Taking these into account, the time gained on all previous records was surely made while the group was still together. It was the colective effort that made the difference and not Valverde's I'd say.

 

[roundabout]

I don't know. The group was not really stretched out through the s-bend and up to Kwiatkowski starting the sprint