Teams & Riders Official Wout Van Aert thread

[canina82]

Van Aert is mostly explained by his ability flattening out earlier than some others due to Visma being further ahead of the pack in 2020-2022/2023 than they are now.

And it really doesn't help him that Van der Poel and Pogacar are just more naturally gifted at RVV. Van Aert doesn't really retain the explosiveness super deep into a race.

I don't think it's explosiveness. He just doesn't have the relative power over and over again to match MVP and specially Pogacar.
Oude Kwaremont is not an explosive climb and he was dropped there in 2021, 2025, 2026.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I didn't. For me it's impossible to know how much he lost in those crashes.

1 - he was clearly the best rider in 2020 (he adapted better than MVP for example) after his crash in the 2019 TdF. I don't really know much he was hampered by this crash.

2 - His crash in DDV was after a total dominance of MVP in E3. WVA wasn't clearly in good shape to compete with MVP in both PR and RVV.

3 - I think his 2025 season was bad due to his crash in the Vuelta. Without the crash, would he be better in PR and win it? I don't think so but it's just an opinion. RVV is out of reach due to Pogacar.

Again, I can't really say how would be his palmares without those crashes.

Of course we can’t say. It was more of a vibes post than a scientific one to be honest. He really should have won 2020 Olympic gold, too. Carapaz the knave stole that one (not begrudging him that; I miss when he was strong enough to convert his wily aggression into big wins).

It’s all just opinion and ultimately your palmares are the facts that matter over time, but I think of Wout as being peers to the Sagans, Boonens, Cancellaras and at times MVdP but he’s currently at a fraction of their big wins. Just feels wrong to me, but I just happen to like the big guy.

 

[Sciatic]

Wout was a monster in 2022, it's possible. It likely also affected him for Paris-Roubaix. I think 5+ is a stretch but he has come very close a LOT of times and has missed entire campaigns through injuries.

Wout’s accomplishments can’t be measured solely in his palmares (which are actually pretty impressive); consider the ride he did to help Yates win the Giro last year, or how helped drive the front group for Vingegaard in the Tourmelet Tour stage in 2023. And the 2 wins on the Champs carry a cache that isn’t represented by “Tour stage win” in palmares.

 

[canina82]

Of course we can’t say. It was more of a vibes post than a scientific one to be honest. He really should have won 2020 Olympic gold, too. Carapaz the knave stole that one (not begrudging him that; I miss when he was strong enough to convert his wily aggression into big wins).

It’s all just opinion and ultimately your palmares are the facts that matter over time, but I think of Wout as being peers to the Sagans, Boonens, Cancellaras and at times MVdP but he’s currently at a fraction of their big wins. Just feels wrong to me, but I just happen to like the big guy.

Looking only to monuments, Sagan won 2. But I get what you are saying even if I don't agree.
Never forget others like MVP and Pogacar should have less monuments in order to Wout wins more and this doesn't feel right to me.

 

[Davesta]

Of course we can’t say. It was more of a vibes post than a scientific one to be honest. He really should have won 2020 Olympic gold, too. Carapaz the knave stole that one (not begrudging him that; I miss when he was strong enough to convert his wily aggression into big wins).

It’s all just opinion and ultimately your palmares are the facts that matter over time, but I think of Wout as being peers to the Sagans, Boonens, Cancellaras and at times MVdP but he’s currently at a fraction of their big wins. Just feels wrong to me, but I just happen to like the big guy.

I agree with the vibe.

On the days he’s shone the brightest, he’s been a world apart from others - he didn’t just win Tour stages; he rode the entire peloton off his wheel on a 4th cat climb, he rode climbers off his wheel on the second ascent of Ventoux, he rode Pogacar off his wheel on a HC mountain!
He’s clearly a class above almost all of the peloton - there’s only a handful of other riders who have the skill and the power to simply ride away from the peloton. Unfortunately for Van Aert, two of those others have been slightly better at doing that in Flanders & Roubaix…and it also seems that Van Aert does it better relative to others after a few days of back to back racing, rather than in a one day race.

But when Van Aert has one of those days, he’s quite incredible. And he does it over a variety of terrain that only Pogacar can match. He’s probably the second best all-rounder (behind Pogacar) that cycling has seen in decades. But unfortunately for him, whilst his all-round ability has resulted in some epic performances, it hasn’t translated into so many big one-day wins. Hence the vibe.

 

[canina82]

I agree with the vibe.

On the days he’s shone the brightest, he’s been a world apart from others - he didn’t just win Tour stages; he rode the entire peloton off his wheel on a 4th cat climb, he rode climbers off his wheel on the second ascent of Ventoux, he rode Pogacar off his wheel on a HC mountain!
He’s clearly a class above almost all of the peloton - there’s only a handful of other riders who have the skill and the power to simply ride away from the peloton. Unfortunately for Van Aert, two of those others have been slightly better at doing that in Flanders & Roubaix…and it also seems that Van Aert does it better relative to others after a few days of back to back racing, rather than in a one day race.

But when Van Aert has one of those days, he’s quite incredible. And he does it over a variety of terrain that only Pogacar can match. He’s probably the second best all-rounder (behind Pogacar) that cycling has seen in decades. But unfortunately for him, whilst his all-round ability has resulted in some epic performances, it hasn’t translated into so many big one-day wins. Hence the vibe.

There is no doubt many riders in the 70s with his skillset won a lot of monuments and GTs (e.g. RdV).

 

[Red Rick]

Of course we can’t say. It was more of a vibes post than a scientific one to be honest. He really should have won 2020 Olympic gold, too. Carapaz the knave stole that one (not begrudging him that; I miss when he was strong enough to convert his wily aggression into big wins).

It’s all just opinion and ultimately your palmares are the facts that matter over time, but I think of Wout as being peers to the Sagans, Boonens, Cancellaras and at times MVdP but he’s currently at a fraction of their big wins. Just feels wrong to me, but I just happen to like the big guy.

I mean every single rider top rider today would mop up monument after monument with the occasional GT for variety in with their current ability in the age of Boonen and Cancellara.

 

[tobydawq]

I mean every single rider top rider today would mop up monument after monument with the occasional GT for variety in with their current ability in the age of Boonen and Cancellara.

Van der Poel would win Grand Tours 15 years ago, or what are you saying?

 

[Red Rick]

Van der Poel would win Grand Tours 15 years ago, or what are you saying?

Possibly yeah.

 

[Peyresourde]

In my own points-based ranking Wout van Aert finally cleared the minimum requirements to be ranked officially after his Roubaix win.

In his typical style, he had been the first rider outside my official ranking for over a year now and just could not get by Julian Alaphilippe. Now he has finally done it and has jumped to rank 76 all time for me, but still far from all the riders mentioned in the posts above.


[83 riders now clear the my minimum requirements to be ranked and the first rider out is now Alfred de Bruyne]

 

[SHAD0W93]

Possibly yeah.

Who’s he beating; Contador, Evans, or Cobo (Froome)?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

In my own points-based ranking Wout van Aert finally cleared the minimum requirements to be ranked officially after his Roubaix win.

In his typical style, he had been the first rider outside my official ranking for over a year now and just could not get by Julian Alaphilippe. Now he has finally done it and has jumped to rank 76 all time for me, but still far from all the riders mentioned in the posts above.


[83 riders now clear the my minimum requirements to be ranked and the first rider out is now Robbie McEwen]

but if you know who is 84th, then the guy in 84th has been ranked.

 

[Red Rick]

Who’s he beating; Contador, Evans, or Cobo (Froome)?

Would probably have to be Cobo/Froome. But I would be way more bullish on the 2012 Giro

Power numbers super low around that time, especially in the first parts of multiclimb stages, so I think the chance of roflcracking on hard stages gets way lower, and you're reaching an era of cycling where he'd gain minutes outside of the mountain stages in sprints, TTs and hills.

Ganna and Van Aert would be even more of a cakewalk in GTs in that period.

 

[Peyresourde]

Would probably have to be Cobo/Froome. But I would be way more bullish on the 2012 Giro

Power numbers super low around that time, especially in the first parts of multiclimb stages, so I think the chance of roflcracking on hard stages gets way lower, and you're reaching an era of cycling where he'd gain minutes outside of the mountain stages in sprints, TTs and hills.

Ganna and Van Aert would be even more of a cakewalk in GTs in that period.

Van Aert is possible/likely, but what have Ganna and MvdP ever shown in a GT?
You would at least need to send their current gels back with them in time, because those did not really exist back then.

Hesjedal was actually pretty good on Alpe di Pampeago in 2012, although the other performances that race were indeed quite bad.

 

[Red Rick]

Van Aert is possible/likely, but what have Ganna and MvdP ever shown in a GT?
You would at least need to send their current gels back with them in time, because those did not really exist back then.

Hesjedal was actually pretty good on Alpe di Pampeago in 2012, although the other performances that race were indeed quite bad.

Ganna has done quite a number of decent climbing results on MTFs that aren't too steep.

Van der Poel I just assume he could do much better climbs than he ever shows because he never had any reason to focus on long climbs, because he does huge power on the flat, and because he wouldn't even need to be among the 10th best climber in some of those GTs because he could take absolute minutes outside the high mountains.

For MvdP the best long climbing I guess has to be 10th in Lombardia with Muro di Sormano in there, which is also way before his own peak as an athlete.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Would probably have to be Cobo/Froome. But I would be way more bullish on the 2012 Giro

Power numbers super low around that time, especially in the first parts of multiclimb stages, so I think the chance of roflcracking on hard stages gets way lower, and you're reaching an era of cycling where he'd gain minutes outside of the mountain stages in sprints, TTs and hills.

Ganna and Van Aert would be even more of a cakewalk in GTs in that period.

Van der Poel winning any GT in the current century? It's too much.
I would give some chances to Van Aert, who showed better climbing in his career (i.e. 2nd in Tirreno or 2nd in mountainous Olympics race).

 

[Red Rick]

Van der Poel winning any GT in the current century? It's too much.
I would give some chances to Van Aert, who showed better climbing in his career (i.e. 2nd in Tirreno or 2nd in mountainous Olympics race).

Why? We've seen some absolute *** get close to winning a GT without the ability to farm a few hours in the hills.

I mean Thomas de Gendt and Peter Velits were on GT podium are we being serious

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Why? We've seen some absolute *** get close to winning a GT without the ability to farm a few hours in the hills.

I mean Thomas de Gendt and Peter Velits were on GT podium are we being serious

GT is not just a set of one day races. MVP wouldn't be able to do it (smashing hilly stages) without being physically compromised for the highest mountains. And keep in mind that teams will be able to control those shorter stages better than long classics.

 

[Peyresourde]

Ganna has done quite a number of decent climbing results on MTFs that aren't too steep.

Van der Poel I just assume he could do much better climbs than he ever shows because he never had any reason to focus on long climbs, because he does huge power on the flat, and because he wouldn't even need to be among the 10th best climber in some of those GTs because he could take absolute minutes outside the high mountains.

For MvdP the best long climbing I guess has to be 10th in Lombardia with Muro di Sormano in there, which is also way before his own peak as an athlete.

Ganna and MvdP should in theory have enough watts to compete back then, but their day-to-day recovery seems far below the standard of even your run-of-the-mill GC rider.

And this problem may have even been aggravated by the lack of carbs back then, although as you said they have simply never tried really hard and would be better with a different mentality.

 

[Red Rick]

Ganna and MvdP should in theory have enough watts to compete back then, but their day-to-day recovery seems far below the standard of even your run-of-the-mill GC rider.

And this problem may have even been aggravated by the lack of carbs back then, although as you said they have simply never tried really hard and would be better with a different mentality.

When i talk about performacne levels I quite explicitly assume they don't suddenly forget that humans need food to do exercise like the propagandists say.

And non GC stages in that day were ridden soft enough to be recovery days now.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If Visma gave peak Van Aert (2021-2022) a very strong team and there are enough TT kms then maybe he could defend the advantage (he would get as an excellent TT-ist) in the mountains against a weak field of climbers.

MVP is weaker both on climbs and in TTs and hilly stages of GTs would be shorter and better controlled so his gains would be unproportionally small compared to his efforts there.

 

[Peyresourde]

When i talk about performacne levels I quite explicitly assume they don't suddenly forget that humans need food to do exercise like the propagandists say.

And non GC stages in that day were ridden soft enough to be recovery days now.

With his E3 watts vdP could even podium the Tour this year, so it is not impossible.

I think he or Ganna could have won the 2001 Tour de France if they had been in the break on stage 8. (This would depend on their degree of favouritism going into the race)

 

[Peyresourde]

If Visma gave peak Van Aert (2021-2022) a very strong team and there are enough TT kms then maybe he could defend the advantage (he would get as an excellent TT-ist) in the mountains against a weak field of climbers.

MVP is weaker both on climbs and in TTs and hilly stages or GTs would be shorter and better controlled so his gains would be unproportionally small compared to his efforts there.

I agree with you on MvdP, we simply have not seen it with him. But I think you are underestimating van Aert a little, he has some really solid climbing performances and his level is not far from a rider like Dumoulin.
Peak Van Aert probably could have won races like the 2011 Tour or the 2012 Giro straight up.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I agree with you on MvdP, we simply have not seen it with him. But I think you are underestimating van Aert a little, he has some really solid climbing performances and his level is not far from a rider like Dumoulin.
Peak Van Aert probably could have won races like the 2011 Tour or the 2012 Giro straight up.

I don't think I'm underestimating Van Aert. I think his peak version would have a decent chance to win a GT containing weak field. As for MVP, we are agreeing.

 

[Extinction]

Possibly yeah.

No