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Paris - Nice 10 March - 17 March 2019 77th edition

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Re: Re:

jaylew said:
Code:
Valv.Piti said:
Rip Cav. Its over man.
Yeah, the Epstein-Barr came at a bad time for him. His days of winning GT stages may be over but he might still be able to win some "sh*t small races"
The problem is that there’s currently no significant gap between being fast enough to win GT stages and being fast enough to win smaller races with any kind of regularity, unless we are talking about really little French races with only one sprinter in them. There are too many very fast guys in an abnormally large top tier. They are spread around almost every pro race with sprint stages. If he doesn’t get back to a GT stage winning level, he’s not going to fill his boots with smaller races either. I’d love to see him back to his best, but it’s becoming harder and harder to avoid coming to the conclusion that he’s basically finished. (The future isn’t looking that rosy for Greipel and perhaps Kittel either)
 
Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
jaylew said:
Code:
Valv.Piti said:
Rip Cav. Its over man.
Yeah, the Epstein-Barr came at a bad time for him. His days of winning GT stages may be over but he might still be able to win some "sh*t small races"
The problem is that there’s currently no significant gap between being fast enough to win GT stages and being fast enough to win smaller races with any kind of regularity, unless we are talking about really little French races with only one sprinter in them.
I'm talking about an occasional win in races where he'd be going up against 3rd tier sprinters and the odd 2nd tier guy.
 
Re: Re:

jaylew said:
Zinoviev Letter said:
jaylew said:
Code:
Valv.Piti said:
Rip Cav. Its over man.
Yeah, the Epstein-Barr came at a bad time for him. His days of winning GT stages may be over but he might still be able to win some "sh*t small races"
The problem is that there’s currently no significant gap between being fast enough to win GT stages and being fast enough to win smaller races with any kind of regularity, unless we are talking about really little French races with only one sprinter in them.
I'm talking about an occasional win in races where he'd be going up against 3rd tier sprinters and the odd 2nd tier guy.
Cav to go back to la Vuelta then?
 
Re: Re:

jaylew said:
Zinoviev Letter said:
jaylew said:
Code:
Valv.Piti said:
Rip Cav. Its over man.
Yeah, the Epstein-Barr came at a bad time for him. His days of winning GT stages may be over but he might still be able to win some "sh*t small races"
The problem is that there’s currently no significant gap between being fast enough to win GT stages and being fast enough to win smaller races with any kind of regularity, unless we are talking about really little French races with only one sprinter in them.
I'm talking about an occasional win in races where he'd be going up against 3rd tier sprinters and the odd 2nd tier guy.
What races? As Zinoviev Letter correctly points out we have such a level sprinting field these days that it's hard to speak about 1st, 2nd, 3rd tier. Just look at Greipel who went to Africa earlier this season in the hopes of getting some early wins and he was consistently outsprinted by Bonifazio. Every race has some capable sprinters and it would seem like an uphill battle for Cav to win in even the smaller 2.1 races, unless he really wants to go to Romania for the Sibiu Tour or something similar.
 
Paris - Nice 2019 Wednesday 13 March Stage 4 Vichy - Péluchin 212 km

The 4th stage of Paris-Nice starts at 11:15 and the expected finish is around 16:30
Live video from 3:15pm CET (10:15am U.S. Eastern)

https://www.cyclingstage.com/paris-nice-2019/stage-4-route-pn-2019/
The 4th stage of Paris-Nice is a hilly affair of 212 kilometres, which takes off in Vichy. The finish is in Péluchin, some 2 kilometres after the top of the last climb. It is the longest race of this year's edition.
Riders who are eyeing up the mountain jersey should be part of the breakaway. Shortly after the start the Côte de Cheval-Rigon offers the first chance to grab some KOM points. It is a 5.7 kilometres climb with shallow gradients. Following a short descent the route continues to climb to the highest point of the day at an elevation of almost 800 metres. No KOM points at the top though.
A rolling section of more than 100 kilometres leads to the more hilly last part of the race. This is where the KOM aspiring riders are going to reap what they sowed. The last 60 kilometres bring three classified climbs. The Côte de Trèves (3 kilometres at 5.2%) leads to the steep Côte de Condrieu (1.9 kilometres at 8.5%). Still 40 kilometres remaining.
Halfway up the Côte de Saint-Michel-sur-Rhône (3 kilometres at 6.6%) the riders enter the final circuit, which is 29 kilometres long. Shortly after cresting the riders move through Péluchin and continue to fly down to the foot of Côte de Chavanay. The hill is 3.1 kilometres with an average gradient of 4.9%. The last kilometres are familiar, as the riders explored this section after the cresting penultimate climb.

The first three riders on the line win time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds, while two intermediate sprints (at kilometre 35 and kilometre 109.5) come with 3, 2 and 1 seconds.
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Weather forecast is for some showers during the day. A long tough day so not surprising they took it easy today.
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
jaylew said:
Zinoviev Letter said:
jaylew said:
Code:
Valv.Piti said:
Rip Cav. Its over man.
Yeah, the Epstein-Barr came at a bad time for him. His days of winning GT stages may be over but he might still be able to win some "sh*t small races"
The problem is that there’s currently no significant gap between being fast enough to win GT stages and being fast enough to win smaller races with any kind of regularity, unless we are talking about really little French races with only one sprinter in them.
I'm talking about an occasional win in races where he'd be going up against 3rd tier sprinters and the odd 2nd tier guy.
What races? As Zinoviev Letter correctly points out we have such a level sprinting field these days that it's hard to speak about 1st, 2nd, 3rd tier. Just look at Greipel who went to Africa earlier this season in the hopes of getting some early wins and he was consistently outsprinted by Bonifazio. Every race has some capable sprinters and it would seem like an uphill battle for Cav to win in even the smaller 2.1 races, unless he really wants to go to Romania for the Sibiu Tour or something similar.
But that's exactly what I'm talking about. I did say sh*t small races, after all. Greipel got a win there and there are plenty races I can see Cav possibly getting a win in when/if he's fully recovered from his illness. I just don't see him winning in an event like a Paris-Nice where he's going against multiple top tier guys.

I think a recovered Cav could probably beat the likes of McLay, Bonafazio, Coquard, Mareczko, Trentin, Laporte, Walscheid, etc...Even in this day and age those guys get the occasional win. And if he recovers, on the right day he might even be able to occasionally beat guys like Colbrelli, Degenkolb, Démare, Bouhanni, Kristoff, and the like
 
Does Kwiatkovsky even want to be a GC rider? I mean, why would they even favor him over Bernal, who could use these small GC races to boost confidence, gain experience in defending a lead etc... or would they just throw Kwiatkovski a bone and assume Bernal's time will come anyway?
 
Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
Does Kwiatkovsky even want to be a GC rider? I mean, why would they even favor him over Bernal, who could use these small GC races to boost confidence, gain experience in defending a lead etc... or would they just throw Kwiatkovski a bone and assume Bernal's time will come anyway?
Yes he does. He wants to win the Tour.
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Does Kwiatkovsky even want to be a GC rider? I mean, why would they even favor him over Bernal, who could use these small GC races to boost confidence, gain experience in defending a lead etc... or would they just throw Kwiatkovski a bone and assume Bernal's time will come anyway?
Yes he does. He wants to win the Tour.
Is this for real or are you pulling my leg? I mean, i know, when he was 21, they thought he could become a GT winner, but i assumed they would have seen the light by now.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
tobydawq said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Does Kwiatkovsky even want to be a GC rider? I mean, why would they even favor him over Bernal, who could use these small GC races to boost confidence, gain experience in defending a lead etc... or would they just throw Kwiatkovski a bone and assume Bernal's time will come anyway?
Yes he does. He wants to win the Tour.
Is this for real or are you pulling my leg? I mean, i know, when he was 21, they thought he could become a GT winner, but i assumed they would have seen the light by now.
I actually read something the other day where he did say this.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
tobydawq said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Does Kwiatkovsky even want to be a GC rider? I mean, why would they even favor him over Bernal, who could use these small GC races to boost confidence, gain experience in defending a lead etc... or would they just throw Kwiatkovski a bone and assume Bernal's time will come anyway?
Yes he does. He wants to win the Tour.
Is this for real or are you pulling my leg? I mean, i know, when he was 21, they thought he could become a GT winner, but i assumed they would have seen the light by now.
In a nice feature Cyclingnews published today, he said it again.

I wouldn't put it past him.
 
Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
Does Kwiatkovsky even want to be a GC rider? I mean, why would they even favor him over Bernal, who could use these small GC races to boost confidence, gain experience in defending a lead etc... or would they just throw Kwiatkovski a bone and assume Bernal's time will come anyway?
He just said that he wants to win the Tour de France. So Paris Nice is small potatoes in his great goal of the future!
 
Re: Re:

Bolder said:
Zinoviev Letter said:
It’s worth noting that the French sprinters don’t really seem to be competitive with the new big guns. Demare and Coquard aren’t coming close to the likes of Groenewegen, Bennett, Ewan.
Yeah, Demare was set up perfectly but didn't have it at the end.

I thought Sky's tactics were interesting...they almost broke up the peloton, maybe with one more teammate they might have done it. Can't fault them for trying, and given how few riders actually contested the sprint you could see that there were a lot of heavy legs. The downside I suppose is that Bernal and Kwiat expended energy that they might need for later on.
They've got a weird team for this race, riders such as Henao and Sosa are no use for the flatlands, Narvaez has flashed potential there but is still young and Hart is not necessarily suited for this. If they'd had one of Doull, Knees or Lawless their squad would be much more balanced yet still be good for the latter half of the race.
 
Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
Does Kwiatkovsky even want to be a GC rider? I mean, why would they even favor him over Bernal, who could use these small GC races to boost confidence, gain experience in defending a lead etc... or would they just throw Kwiatkovski a bone and assume Bernal's time will come anyway?
Kwia already snatched victory from Sky’s designated GC leader (Thomas) in Algarve and T-A last year, so I wouldn’t rule out his doing the same here.
 
Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
Does Kwiatkovsky even want to be a GC rider? I mean, why would they even favor him over Bernal, who could use these small GC races to boost confidence, gain experience in defending a lead etc... or would they just throw Kwiatkovski a bone and assume Bernal's time will come anyway?
Stage races GC-wise, Bernal has won Amgen (WT) 2018, Sibiu (2.1, Romania) 2017 and Colombia (2.1) 2018 (+ stage wins). And Avenir 2017, of course.

Kwiato has won Tirreno (WT) 2018, Poland (WT) 2018, Algarve (2.1) 2018 and 2014 (+ stage wins).

Can't really see the difference between these two considered as GC riders, especially as far as one-week races are concerned.

Obviously, Bernal will most likely develop (very) shortly into a rider capable of winning any GT - while Kwiato most likely will not. But in one-week races, I can easily see both of them winning GC. "Throwing a bone" (to Kwiatkowski) vs. "boosting confidence and gaining experience in defending a lead" (for Bernal) does not sound fair enough.

If I were Sky, I would see no reason to favour Bernal over Kwiatkowski, or to favour Kwiatkowski over Bernal.
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
jaylew said:
Zinoviev Letter said:
jaylew said:
Code:
Valv.Piti said:
Rip Cav. Its over man.
Yeah, the Epstein-Barr came at a bad time for him. His days of winning GT stages may be over but he might still be able to win some "sh*t small races"
The problem is that there’s currently no significant gap between being fast enough to win GT stages and being fast enough to win smaller races with any kind of regularity, unless we are talking about really little French races with only one sprinter in them.
I'm talking about an occasional win in races where he'd be going up against 3rd tier sprinters and the odd 2nd tier guy.
What races? As Zinoviev Letter correctly points out we have such a level sprinting field these days that it's hard to speak about 1st, 2nd, 3rd tier. Just look at Greipel who went to Africa earlier this season in the hopes of getting some early wins and he was consistently outsprinted by Bonifazio. Every race has some capable sprinters and it would seem like an uphill battle for Cav to win in even the smaller 2.1 races, unless he really wants to go to Romania for the Sibiu Tour or something similar.
he'd get smashed by Grosu.
 
Re: Re:

Escarabajo said:
SafeBet said:
I don't see any reason why Kwiatkowski shouldn't believe he can win a Tour de France after what happened in last year's Tour de France.
:lol:

After last year just about every rider wants to win the Tour.
Actually I would say that after last year just about every rider wants to win the Giro :D

Kwiatkowski doesn't need to improve that much more in the high mountains to be a potential GT GC threat. And obviously this has not been his number one focus yet, nor will it be this season. But Froome and Thomas haven't got long left, next season I would doubt they would be leading the Tour team, and we don't know what is going to happen to Sky either. Anyway, Bernal would probably be the teams TDF leader in 2020, not Kwiatkowski, but he could make next year his first change of focus to being a GT GC rider, and perhaps lead at the Giro or Vuelta. He could then 'dream' about being the teams (again, who knows who will be riding with who by this point in time) number two option at the TDF, as insurance behind Bernal in 2021, by which time he should be at his absolute peak.

But how much does the Pole want to reduce his chances of winning monuments in order to increase his chances of top 10/podium GT GC results?
 

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