Paris-Nice 2026, March 8-15

[Bolder]

But why could Ayuso have challenged him? I know it's usual for a young rider or a rider in a new team to become a shiny object for cycling fans, but let's stick to the facts. When has Ayuso ever been able to challenge Vingegaard?

He probably would have been on the podium, but Ayuso isn't exactly known for his consistency.

Ayuso would have had a chance either yesterday or today, pretty sure he was in good form and with a lot of prove. Sadly we'll never know.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It is odd, no? Normally he's pack fodder at this point. At least the Giro comes before the Tour.

He was also flying in early 2024, when he absolutely obliterated everyone in Gran Camiño and (more impressively) Tirreno.

 

[theyoungest]

It is odd, no? Normally he's pack fodder at this point. At least the Giro comes before the Tour.

I suppose you're kidding, because Vingegaard is always good in the early season. Maybe in that Paris-Nice he lost to Pogi he wasn't that good... but still second only to Pogi.

 

[RedheadDane]

I suppose you're kidding, because Vingegaard is always good in the early season. Maybe in that Paris-Nice he lost to Pogi he wasn't that good... but still second only to Pogi.

Nope:

Paris - Nice 2023 Stage 8 results

Tadej PogaÄar is the winner of Paris - Nice 2023, before David Gaudu and Jonas Vingegaard. The stage from Nice to Nice was won by Tadej PogaÄar.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[canina82]

Vingegaard's base level is better than everyone's ceilling.

 

[theyoungest]

Nope:

Paris - Nice 2023 Stage 8 results

Tadej PogaÄar is the winner of Paris - Nice 2023, before David Gaudu and Jonas Vingegaard. The stage from Nice to Nice was won by Tadej PogaÄar.

www.procyclingstats.com

Well, okay, third. Still not pack fodder though

 

[Dazed and Confused]

GC:

1	1	-	Vingegaard Jonas	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	10	16″	17:22:06
2	2	-	Martínez Daniel Felipe	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe		10″	3:22
3	3	-	Steinhauser Georg	EF Education - EasyPost			5:50
4	4	-	Vauquelin Kévin	INEOS Grenadiers			6:09
5	6	▲1	Martinez Lenny	Bahrain - Victorious			7:37
6	8	▲2	Soler Marc	UAE Team Emirates - XRG			8:15
7	10	▲3	Izagirre Ion	Cofidis			9:02
8	12	▲4	Rondel Mathys	Tudor Pro Cycling Team			10:06
9	13	▲4	Baudin Alex	EF Education - EasyPost			10:16
10	14	▲4	Onley Oscar	INEOS Grenadiers			11:23

Solo-er and Ion creeping up like eveyone else at the bottom half.

 

[Netserk]

It is odd, no? Normally he's pack fodder at this point. At least the Giro comes before the Tour.

that hasnt been the case the past three years

it wasnt exactly ordinary conditions in pn last year before his crash

 

[Brullnux]

It is odd, no? Normally he's pack fodder at this point. At least the Giro comes before the Tour.

He was pretty bad last season but in 2024 he was dominant in March and 2023 he walked Itzulia. In 2022 he was somewhere in the middle, came 2nd to Pogacar in Tirreno-Adriatico and then mostly unimpressive in Itzulia. I wouldn't say it's strange, it's just different to last year.

 

[Squire]

But why could Ayuso have challenged him? I know it's usual for a young rider or a rider in a new team to become a shiny object for cycling fans, but let's stick to the facts. When has Ayuso ever been able to challenge Vingegaard?

He probably would have been on the podium, but Ayuso isn't exactly known for his consistency.

Putting similar amounts of time into the same guys on similar climbs in Algarve, for one. Looking equal to or better than Seixas, who also crushed some of these guys in Ardèche.

It's of course completely valid to think Vingegaard would still win solo here, he is Vingegaard after all. And it's completely valid to think Seixas wouldn't have followed him either. It's just my intuition that on current form, Ayuso would be more likely to be able to follow close enough that they would be two guys at the finish, instead of just squirming around with Steinhauser and VPP. And I think 'he has never beaten him' is a bit of lazy argumentation which doesn't take context into consideration. It's not like this was Plateau de Beille. Vingegaard and Ayuso have raced against each other exactly once before in a one-week stage race.

 

[Red Rick]

Fail to drop everyone on a 6-7% climb in massive headwinds in February/March twice and everyone thinks you only show up for the Grand Tours again.

 

[canina82]

Fail to drop everyone on a 6-7% climb in massive headwinds in February/March twice and everyone thinks you only show up for the Grand Tours again.

Conveniently your forgot to say Almeida (who won the stage) was also climbing against a headwind and pulling the chasing group.

 

[Extinction]

Fingers crossed that Vingo has a smooth run to the Tour. He looks like he's back to building that form that made Pogacar suffer.

 

[Oldman]

Well Colombia is also one of the wettest countries in the world and Bogota gets as much sunshine as Reykjavik and just slightly more than Manchester.
Because of the altitude it also doesn't get particulary hot either.

Have you looked at a map of Colombia? It goes from an altitude of 0' to 19,500'. Many climate zones....

 

[Sciatic]

I guess it’s too much to think that we could just look at and discuss PN on its own terms rather than as a yardstick for the GTs. Though it’s a shame Vingegaard’s main competitors crashed out, it’s still been entertaining racing these past two days. The Dauphine has been treated like Tour prep and predictor for a long time but I like that PN and Tirreno have their own identities separate races from the GTs.

 

[Red Rick]

Conveniently your forgot to say Almeida (who won the stage) was also climbing against a headwind and pulling the chasing group.

I never claimed Almeida doesn't do *** outside of Grand Tours.

 

[Cookster15]

Impressive early season form for Vingo. Huge GC lead. He will be in top shape for the Giro.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Awesome win by Vingo. He didn't have to attack but he showed a great ride. He made some decent climbers look like amateurs in the finale, some flashback of Tirreno'24 or Basque'23 early season form. Commentators in Polish Eurosport regret there was no Ayuso to challenge him today but they were way too optimistic I think.

 

[carton]

Have you looked at a map of Colombia? It goes from an altitude of 0' to 19,500'. Many climate zones....

I mean, that's a great point. But despite the fact that Colombia is slightly larger than France and Spain combined (and that it has a couple of deserts), it has been ranked as the rainiest country in the world, ahead of islands like Sao Tome and Principe and the Solomons. So it follows that most of the country does get a fair chunk of rain, from the coasts to the mountains. Including, as Bleh said, the Bogota metropolitan area where Martinez is from, which interestingly enough has very similar average weather to Brussels in terms rainy days (190 days for Bogota vs 199 for Brussels), precipitation (841mm vs 852mm), sunshine (1629hrs vs 1546hrs) and relative humidity (80% for both). Although despite a slightly higher altitude (8,700' vs 42'), Bogota is a bit warmer on average (13.7 C vs 10.5C ). And, of course, there are no seasons in Bogota, just rainy and a little cold and slightly less rainy and just as cold.

IMHO it was the wind and the fact that he was consistenty at the head of the peloton with his team that probably wore Martinez down a bit. Particularly given the fact that, as was pointed out by someone earlier, he's a 130lb climber. He looked a bit better today. In any case its glad to see him get a chance to go for the podium at Red Bull given the abundance of GC leaders on the team ATM. He's clearly not at the Vingegaard-level, and he can be inconsistent, but he gets criminally underrated at times, for a guy who podiumed not just Paris-Nice but the Giro just two years ago (and has also won the Dauphine and Basque Country).

 

[Breh]

Have you looked at a map of Colombia? It goes from an altitude of 0' to 19,500'. Many climate zones....

Sure, but also

 

[Squire]

IMHO it was the wind and the fact that he was consistenty at the head of the peloton with his team that probably wore Martinez down a bit. Particularly given the fact that, as was pointed out by someone earlier, he's a 130lb climber. He looked a bit better today. In any case its glad to see him get a chance to go for the podium at Red Bull given the abundance of GC leaders on the team ATM.

I don't know what points people are trying to make anymore.

DFM had a great day in the wind and the rain, which wasn't surprising as he is known for usually being good in bad weather. Something which probably isn't that related to where he comes from. Some riders function well, some don't. Take Vlasov, one of the most notorious fair-weather riders in the peloton, whose Instagram reads like a weather monitoring station with lots of moaning when it's not warm and sunny. He's from Vyborg near the Finnish border, a rainy and cold place far to the north.

Yes, Martinez didn't look great on the final climb, but who did (except Vauquelin and Vingegaard)? I mean, he and his team rode pretty much everyone off their wheels earlier in the day. A strong rider such as Vacek was just blown away while sitting on in the group. Vacek didn't even have a crash to blame for creating a bit of a gap as far as I could tell. All in all, DFM was arguably the 3rd strongest GC rider on that day (or 4th, depending on how you rate Lenny who also got dropped in the crosswind). Which he quite clearly wasn't today. But he's likely to keep 2nd overall I think. There's not much separating the guys behind Vingegaard in terms of level.

 

[Danskebjerge]

Attacking with 10k to go is like waiting for the sprint in the world of Pogacar.

 

[Oldman]

Attacking with 10k to go is like waiting for the sprint in the world of Pogacar.

Jonas attacked where the terrain provided his best advantage. He would also know from his team car that the trailers were busy fighting for 2nd place honors after he gained 40 seconds. He locked/loaded into long range tempo and got the GC minutes they need to win.
Pogacar gets a gap with 80km to go and, like Vingegaard receives chase status as he continues to increase a gap. If the chase is fractured in a single day race; he tempos to maintain or increase the gap to protect that win. GC breaks are about gaining time unless you have an insurmountable GC lead. Not the same thing and why they race each other much harder. When is the last time Jonas showed up at a one day race with Tadej?