Paris-Nice: STAGE 4 - Maurs -Mende 173.5 km

[halamala]

Alberto Contador @ La Croix Neuve

Distance: 3,1 km
Elevation: 313 m
Grade: 10,1 %
Time: 9.57
Speed: 18.69 Kph

Relative power (Watts/kg) = VAM (meters/hour) / Gradient Factor x 100)
VAM: 1887 m/h
Gradient Factor: 3.01 x 100 = 301

VAM 1887 m/h / Gradient Factor 301 = 6,27
Relative power (Watts/kg) = 6,27 Watts/kg

Contador's weight = 64 kg

64 kg * 6,27 Watts/kg = 401 Watts

Sources: halamala & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_Ascended,_Metres_per_hour

 

[El Oso]

Some observations: Sylvain Chavanel actually had a decent day, I think he came in with Jens!. Dan Martin, along with CVV, Chris Horner and Tony Martin lost about 5', as did Kolobnev although he might have been working for Rodriguez earlier on. Fuglsang and Pierrick Fedrigo rode up with the autobus. 24" isn't the most generous lead to defend, particularly over lumpy stages, in poor weather, from Valverde of all people. Think Contador might end up doing quite a lot himself. Roman Kreuziger's hat is daft. That is all.

I was wondering about Chavanel myself today. IMO he's been a bit disappointing, I expected him to be out in the breaks and getting his name mentioned more often. How else would he have a chance to beat Contador? I haven't heard his name at all during the stages. I thought he was going to have more of a go for it. Perhaps he'll try something in the last 3 days.

 

[Winterfold]

last interview with Contador I read (FWIW) he said he was 63kg - 2kg overweight and he could really feel it

 

[Angliru]

If with everything you mean the Tour. Yes.

"The Problem" with Contador is that he is racing for at least 6 months each year, and actually goes for a win too. And I hope to see him do the Vuelta again this year.

That is a primary reason that root for him because he comes to race and compete not just to get the miles in. Almost a throwback although you could include several other riders that do the same of this generation.

 

[Galic Ho]

Read some of the thread and saw the result. Who was surprised by the top 3? Not me, they are the best 3 stage riders overall in the world ATM. The Schlecks tailor their attacks specifically for set races and periods to peak at. They also fall of and injure themselves every now and then.

Look at the placings on the climb. Nothing will change come the Tour. Kreuziger is good but his finish today is a great indicator of how he will be come the Tour and that is behind the Spaniards and Schlecks. Rudriquez is a better climber. But the fans on this forum will talk him and others up before July, only to casually forget their comments. Top 3 today will all top 5 at the Tour. If Andy has a problem there is the podium. As for Levi...well that is a good indicator of how Levi will be come July. I suspect he has been nerfed to serve the greater good. His performance indicates as much. Over a minute back in Paris-Nice on one stage! Yeah cause the Shack look threatening, to only one GC contendor. Wigans.

To those doubting Samu, wake up. He was neck and neck with Valverde and has been for a while. The Spaniards are going to win everything this year. The Giro, Tour and perhaps the Vuelta. Add in the World Cup and the F1 championship and they are looking ahead to an amazing sporting year. They won't win in Tennis or MotoGP so all is fair in the end. Get ready for the Spanish invasion.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

towards a shack free tour!

what's really sad is that even after today's performance, the shack is prolly still guaranteed a tour spot, simply because of one man with much cache, even though he might not even top 10.

after the shack's performance today, and especially with the quote from levi, i know i wouldn't invite them. give their spot to vacansoleil or skil! at least they are stepping up to demonstrate their value and make races.

on another note, bmc basically said they'd be fine without a tour invite, and they are riding accordingly. georgie can stay home with the fam and wear his fancy clothes on training rides.

 

[taiwan]

I was wondering about Chavanel myself today. IMO he's been a bit disappointing, I expected him to be out in the breaks and getting his name mentioned more often. How else would he have a chance to beat Contador? I haven't heard his name at all during the stages. I thought he was going to have more of a go for it. Perhaps he'll try something in the last 3 days.

Well that was what you might expect to be his worst day, and he limited his losses well enough, so maybe he will be able to do something in the last stages. Contador will presumably avoid bonking, but will have his hands pretty full with Caisse D'Epargne in particular.

Having said that, Chavanel has plenty of people still ahead of him in the GC queue.

 

[Bike Boy]

I have to concede that predicting is not my thing. Leipheimer (and the entire radio/retirement shack) did a horrible job today.
I guess D. Millar's performance was acceptable, it was just a stupid call on my behalf to predict he would be in contention for the podium.

Cycling is a lot more predictable when Contador is around, but I wouldn't call it boring. What he does is truly amazing, and I'm not just talking about he's physical attributes. I have to admit that I admire his mental toughness just as much.

I'm looking forward to see some very dramatic racing the next three days. Paris Nice is notoriously known as a race, which is very hard to control for one team. I can't help feeling very excited.

 

[tgsgirl]

after the shack's performance today, and especially with the quote from levi, i know i wouldn't invite them. give their spot to vacansoleil or skil! at least they are stepping up to demonstrate their value and make races.

No matter how you feel about the man, Prudhomme would have to be completely out his mind bonkers not to give RadioShack a spot. Media exposure with Lance >>>>> media exposure without Lance. I'd be like saying "no Tiger, our golf tournament is doing just fine without you, even if 90%* of all sports fans couldn't name a golfer besides you even if you threatened to step on their dog".


*this number may or may not be factual

 

[Publicus]

I have to concede that predicting is not my thing. Leipheimer (and the entire radio/retirement shack) did a horrible job today.
I guess D. Millar's performance was acceptable, it was just a stupid call on my behalf to predict he would be in contention for the podium.

Cycling is a lot more predictable when Contador is around, but I wouldn't call it boring. What he does is truly amazing, and I'm not just talking about he's physical attributes. I have to admit that I admire his mental toughness just as much.

I'm looking forward to see some very dramatic racing the next three days. Paris Nice is notoriously known as a race, which is very hard to control for one team. I can't help feeling very excited.

I think this is absolutely right. Astana is going to have a tough time controlling this race . . . except if they can manage to get someone in the break on Saturday. It would make it a lot easier if they are not conducting the chase. That being said, I can't see any team allowing it. Lulu and Valverde are going to be dangerous on Saturday/Sunday. We'll see what AC and Astana are made of I'm sure.

 

[luckyboy]

I was wondering about Chavanel myself today. IMO he's been a bit disappointing, I expected him to be out in the breaks and getting his name mentioned more often. How else would he have a chance to beat Contador? I haven't heard his name at all during the stages. I thought he was going to have more of a go for it. Perhaps he'll try something in the last 3 days.

I'll bet he will. He's won a stage two years running up to now, plus the point jersey & 3rd overall last year. Waiting to see what he does on the cobbles in April

 

[Bike Boy]

I think this is absolutely right. Astana is going to have a tough time controlling this race . . . except if they can manage to get someone in the break on Saturday. It would make it a lot easier if they are not conducting the chase. That being said, I can't see any team allowing it. Lulu and Valverde are going to be dangerous on Saturday/Sunday. We'll see what AC and Astana are made of I'm sure.

Yes as you pointed out your self. getting someone in the break is easier said than done.
I believe Caisse d'Epargne will put on a show, I had hoped that Saxo Bank would be able to do something similarly but Jens Voigt has been very much alone so far.

 

[theswordsman]

There seems to be a lot of contact going on. Maybe the nasty conditions have something to do with it. I guess it's good practice for the cobble sections at the Tour.

Astana was driving it as hard as they could while every other team was organizing behind them. At one moment a fight almost broke out between Alberto and another rider, as he bumped Alberto off his teammate’s wheel. Some things were said, well more like yelled, back and forth before each rider realized that vital energy was being wasted and as is normally the case in cycling, it all ended just as fast as it began.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/horner/2010/03/chris_horners_team_radioshack_4.html

 

[BikeCentric]

Levi's excuse:
Quote:
“It’s just really cold. I guess before it was amusingly cold, but this isn’t very fun," Leipheimer said. "It’s our job. Like any professional, we have days that we’re just going through the motions and that’s kind of where I am right now. I am not riding that great and this is obviously miserable weather. It’s good training, that’s what I keep telling myself."

So it's offical: Python was correct and Leipheimer is offically a pussy.

Disclaimer: yes, of course Leipheimer is tougher than me so I don't want to hear any trolls of this post along those lines. This is an analysis of his relative mental toughness relative to his peers in the pro peloton, and at this stage of his career I think it's fair to make the call that his toughness among the racers of the peloton is severely lacking.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

I think this is absolutely right. Astana is going to have a tough time controlling this race . . . except if they can manage to get someone in the break on Saturday. It would make it a lot easier if they are not conducting the chase. That being said, I can't see any team allowing it. Lulu and Valverde are going to be dangerous on Saturday/Sunday. We'll see what AC and Astana are made of I'm sure.

astana may not be the strongest team out there. but at least they will be in a position to practice jersey defense in unpredictable and miserable race conditions. perhaps repeatedly if contador can hold form for 4+ months.

 

[BikeCentric]

No wonder at all. Lance isn't going to have the Conti vs. Armstrong showdown any sooner than it has to be. There'd be much less hype around the real thing if Conti smacks Lance around on seven* different occasions before they both get to TdF.

*random number

^
This.

I highly doubt we'll see them head to head untill AC lays the smackdown on LA in July.

 

[Galic Ho]

astana may not be the strongest team out there. but at least they will be in a position to practice jersey defense in unpredictable and miserable race conditions. perhaps repeatedly if contador can hold form for 4+ months.

Top 3 from stage 4 are not even close to their best form. Scary hey? You better believe it cause come July 3 teams are going to rip the Tour apart, one RadioShack rider at a time.

 

[BikeCentric]

Alberto Contador @ La Croix Neuve

Distance: 3,1 km
Elevation: 313 m
Grade: 10,1 %
Time: 9.57
Speed: 18.69 Kph

Relative power (Watts/kg) = VAM (meters/hour) / Gradient Factor x 100)
VAM: 1887 m/h
Gradient Factor: 3.01 x 100 = 301

VAM 1887 m/h / Gradient Factor 301 = 6,27
Relative power (Watts/kg) = 6,27 Watts/kg

Contador's weight = 64 kg

64 kg * 6,27 Watts/kg = 401 Watts

Sources: halamala & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_Ascended,_Metres_per_hour

The good news is that those numbers aren't by any means "extraterrestrial." They are excellent as befitting the current best cyclist in the World, but they are most certainly not outside of the realm of unassisted human possibility.

 

[BikeCentric]

Read some of the thread and saw the result. Who was surprised by the top 3? Not me, they are the best 3 stage riders overall in the world ATM. The Schlecks tailor their attacks specifically for set races and periods to peak at. They also fall of and injure themselves every now and then.

Look at the placings on the climb. Nothing will change come the Tour. Kreuziger is good but his finish today is a great indicator of how he will be come the Tour and that is behind the Spaniards and Schlecks. Rudriquez is a better climber. But the fans on this forum will talk him and others up before July, only to casually forget their comments. Top 3 today will all top 5 at the Tour. If Andy has a problem there is the podium. As for Levi...well that is a good indicator of how Levi will be come July. I suspect he has been nerfed to serve the greater good. His performance indicates as much. Over a minute back in Paris-Nice on one stage! Yeah cause the Shack look threatening, to only one GC contendor. Wigans.

To those doubting Samu, wake up. He was neck and neck with Valverde and has been for a while. The Spaniards are going to win everything this year. The Giro, Tour and perhaps the Vuelta. Add in the World Cup and the F1 championship and they are looking ahead to an amazing sporting year. They won't win in Tennis or MotoGP so all is fair in the end. Get ready for the Spanish invasion.

All true but Kreuziger is a rider on the rise. Has been improving steadily each year and I would not be at all surprised if this is the year he joins the stage racing elite. It's this year, next year at the latest, or never.

 

[ravens]

^
This.

I highly doubt we'll see them head to head untill AC lays the smackdown on LA in July.

Plan A is my belief now more than ever. Lance won't show up in July.

 

[Angliru]

So it's offical: Python was correct and Leipheimer is offically a pussy.

Disclaimer: yes, of course Leipheimer is tougher than me so I don't want to hear any trolls of this post along those lines. This is an analysis of his relative mental toughness relative to his peers in the pro peloton, and at this stage of his career I think it's fair to make the call that his toughness among the racers of the peloton is severely lacking.

...and to use this excuse while the rider who is your team's nemesis is racing in shorts with no tights or warmers (although he did have on a gator prior to the final climb) while your bundled up, still complaining of the cold AND getting dropped only magnifies his lack of testosterone.

 

[Angliru]

Plan A is my belief now more than ever. Lance won't show up in July.

Do you think he'll simply announce his retirement prior to the Tour? I believe that if he feels he's not going to be able to compete at the level that he had hoped, he will bail. He won't do the "team thing" and show up and work for Leipheimer. He'll have a tearful press conference, repeating that 7 is just as good as 8 and that he's picking Leipheimer to win the Tour--just without his help.

 

[hfer07]

Do you think he'll simply announce his retirement prior to the Tour? I believe that if he feels he's not going to be able to compete at the level that he had hoped, he will bail. He won't do the "team thing" and show up and work for Leipheimer. He'll have a tearful press conference, repeating that 7 is just as good as 8 and that he's picking Leipheimer to win the Tour--just without his help.

from what I've heard/read/searched-the possibility of LA not showing up at the TDF is REAL-but the problem is that the recession ain't over yet and there is a lot of $$$$$ to collect in appearance fees & fund raising invitations to be charging for......

 

[BroDeal]

Do you think he'll simply announce his retirement prior to the Tour? I believe that if he feels he's not going to be able to compete at the level that he had hoped, he will bail. He won't do the "team thing" and show up and work for Leipheimer. He'll have a tearful press conference, repeating that 7 is just as good as 8 and that he's picking Leipheimer to win the Tour--just without his help.

No way Armstrong does not show up unless he is afraid that the French police investigation will link his DNA to the infusion kits found last year. He did a lot of damage to his reputation with his treatment of Contador. He could make up for it by supporting Leipheimer--or at least saying that he will. He could then mug for the cameras a few times to make it look like he is helping Bottle. He would get to bask in the limelight with no expectation of performing while his supporters gin up a phony story of great sportsmanship.

 

[woodburn]

The good news is that those numbers aren't by any means "extraterrestrial." They are excellent as befitting the current best cyclist in the World, but they are most certainly not outside of the realm of unassisted human possibility.

I would imagine the numbers for Valverde and Sanchez are pretty close, too.