Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[canina82]

Again not necessarily, he has put 40 secs inTT & a minute in the mountain stage on him which was a level above performance but he couldn’t shake him today yet still could beat him in sprint. This showed his level got a little bit less as the week proceeded which caught our attention to question “what could happen in a 3 week race?” “ Can he manage & sustain his level or bonk in the 3rd week?” This are the right questions to ask I guess

Even if he drops a step, he still is good enough to beat Lipowitz. Today Lipo wasn't close to drop him and Seixas dropped everyone yesterday too, not just in stage 2.

 

[Ulle97]

Seixas blew everyone away in the first couple of days. We often see this trend, whereby the leader of the race with a big buffer, is less dominant in the latter stages. He can afford to take his foot off the gas a bit.

It is an absolute compliment to Seixas, that we criticise his performance because he won the stage 'only' in a sprint finish. He blew the remaining 129 riders away. Just look at the time gaps.

Unless the break get away, he is favourite to win the stage tomorrow as well. If he wants to go for it.

Here is a breakdown of time gaps between 1st and 5th position over the last 6 editions of this stage race:

2021- 1min 27sec
2022- 32sec
2023- 1min 36sec
2024- 1min 46sec
2025- 2min 17sec
2026- 4min 12sec and counting

 

[canina82]

Seixas blew everyone away in the first couple of days. We often see this trend, whereby the leader of the race with a big buffer, is less dominant in the latter stages. He can afford to take his foot off the gas a bit.

It is an absolute compliment to Seixas, that we criticise his performance because he won the stage 'only' in a sprint finish. He blew the remaining 129 riders away. Just look at the time gaps.

Unless the break get away, he is favourite to win the stage tomorrow as well. If he wants to go for it.

Here is a breakdown of time gaps between 1st and 5th position over the last 6 editions of this stage race:

2021- 1min 27sec
2022- 32sec
2023- 1min 36sec
2024- 1min 46sec
2025- 2min 17sec
2026- 4min 12sec and counting

This kid is phenomenal but his rising is not welcomed by many because it means other "hyped riders" lost any chance of winning the TdF in the future. The argument was that Jonas and Pogacar will eventually lose interest in the sport and Remco, Lipo, Ayuso, etc can foght for the TdF. This argument went out the window right now.

 

[KoopaCycling]

This kid is phenomenal but his rising is not welcomed by many because it means other "hyped riders" lost any chance of winning the TdF in the future. The argument was that Jonas and Pogacar will eventually lose interest in the sport and Remco, Lipo, Ayuso, etc can foght for the TdF. This argument went out the window right now.

That is not even close to why i'm not looking forward to Seixas destroying climbs at his age.
I'm also not buying the Pogacar tired of racing narrative

 

[Berniece]

This kid is phenomenal but his rising is not welcomed by many because it means other "hyped riders" lost any chance of winning the TdF in the future. The argument was that Jonas and Pogacar will eventually lose interest in the sport and Remco, Lipo, Ayuso, etc can foght for the TdF. This argument went out the window right now.

I love to see him ride like this. It's always nice to see young riders do well. For all I care he wins the TDF this year. Just because some people look critically to him, doesn't mean there is an ulterior motive

 

[yaf2]

Even if he drops a step, he still is good enough to beat Lipowitz. Today Lipo wasn't close to drop him and Seixas dropped everyone yesterday too, not just in stage 2.

We’re not concerned about lipowitz. “The thread name says paul seixas tdf winner 2031” or at any point in the next years and not for a 3rd or top 5 result & If we’re talking about Winning a tdf, pog & ving are the two benchmarks atm. Both are known for their exceptional recovery ability in 3week races which allows them to win the grand tours. For seixas its not there quite yet but could happen in near future through experience.

 

[Extinction]

We’re not concerned about lipowitz. “The thread name says paul seixas tdf winner 2031” or at any point in the next years and not for a 3rd or top 5 result & If we’re talking about Winning a tdf, pog & ving are the two benchmarks atm. Both are known for their exceptional recovery ability in 3week races which allows them to win the grand tours. For seixas its not there quite yet but could happen in near future through experience.

If recovery is an issue, which isn't really evident, it's worth recalling he is only 19. Hence, he should become stronger and recover better over the next 5, 6, 7 years. At 19 he's nowhere near his athletic peak.

 

[YavorD]

We’re not concerned about lipowitz. “The thread name says paul seixas tdf winner 2031” or at any point in the next years and not for a 3rd or top 5 result & If we’re talking about Winning a tdf, pog & ving are the two benchmarks atm. Both are known for their exceptional recovery ability in 3week races which allows them to win the grand tours. For seixas its not there quite yet but could happen in near future through experience.

But Seixas' abilities to recover aren't bad.
He just didn't drop Lipowitz today.
Pogacar was (almost?) dropped on Montjuic, Vingegaard didn't drop Lenny Martinez.
Get a grip.
The guy just won his third stage, people here question his recovery abilities as if he was hard dropped today...

 

[yaf2]

If recovery is an issue, which isn't really evident, it's worth recalling he is only 19. Hence, he should become stronger and recover better over the next 5, 6, 7 years. At 19 he's nowhere near his athletic peak.

Recovery is definitely an issue both in algarve & basque. You can’t lose a minute advantage(in level) in 4 or 5 days if it wasn’t a recovery problem. Maybe illness/crash could also drop your level. But I agree on your 2nd point that he can become a complete rider in the next years but my only concern is can he be the next pog in grand tours? after comparing their first & second year pro which says to me pog might not be as dominantly strong at 19 or 20(part of it is also his trainer being Sanmilan) but he had definitely the better recovery at that age as his vuelta 19 performance indicates

 

[Cookster15]

Recovery is definitely an issue both in algarve & basque. You can’t lose a minute advantage(in level) in 4 or 5 days if it wasn’t a recovery problem.

He is only 19. I agree with Extinction. Maybe he suffered in today's heat but I would not read too much into anything we saw in terms of what his potential is.

 

[yaf2]

But Seixas' abilities to recover aren't bad.
He just didn't drop Lipowitz today.
Pogacar was (almost?) dropped on Montjuic, Vingegaard didn't drop Lenny Martinez.
Get a grip.
The guy just won his third stage, people here question his recovery abilities as if he was hard dropped today...

putting pogs montjuic & vingegaards Paris nice is irrelevant. Both are ridden in completely different situation than today with the former ridden extremely conservatively & the latter, the watts speak for itself as vingegaard being not even close to his top shape in the idea to peak for giro & tour. Seixas had an exceptional level in the 1st days & today u can clearly see he was trying to drop lipo but couldn’t. I am confident if todays stage was ridden on the 1st day seixas is gone by a minute & if you could argue this, well i am out

 

[YavorD]

putting pogs montjuic & vingegaards Paris nice is irrelevant. Both are ridden in completely different situation than today with the former ridden extremely conservatively & the latter, the watts speak for itself as vingegaard being not even close to his top shape in the idea to peak for giro & tour. Seixas had an exceptional level in the 1st days & today u can clearly see he was trying to drop lipo but couldn’t. I am confident if todays stage was ridden in the 1st stage seixas is gone by a minute & if you could argue this, well i am out

And what if he had a slightly weaker day (everyone has that, remember Vingegaard being dropped by Pidcock in the Vuelta) and Lipowitz a great one? That surely reduces the gap naturally, no?

Besides, if you drop everyone hard on the first stage, gain time in the ITT, but your so called drop of performance still allows you to win the late stages, this is more than enough to win most GT's, Tours including, isn't it?

 

[yaf2]

And what if he had a slightly weaker day (everyone has that, remember Vingegaard being dropped by Pidcock in the Vuelta) and Lipowitz a great one? That surely reduces the gap naturally, no?

Besides, if you drop everyone hard on the first stage, gain time in the ITT, but your so called drop of performance still allows you to win the late stages, this is more than enough to win most GT's, Tours including, isn't it?

You’re right, it’s possible to win grand tours in a fashion you described but first we have to agree on the point that his level dropped a little today. And ur point on ving isn’t true as he was ill the last 2 weeks in vuelta But anyways don’t get me wrong, a one or two less good days in grand tours can be normal & today could be one of those days but if you read my first comments/posts on this issue I was referring more about a characteristics theme where seixas could be a vdp type rider who can be excellent for a few days & fades away in the later stages( This are just assumptions) Or he is the typical grand tour rider who could become complete in aging. This 2 scenarios or outcomes are still to be discovered in the coming months.

 

[piada especial]

This kid is phenomenal but his rising is not welcomed by many because it means other "hyped riders" lost any chance of winning the TdF in the future. The argument was that Jonas and Pogacar will eventually lose interest in the sport and Remco, Lipo, Ayuso, etc can foght for the TdF. This argument went out the window right now.

There are many not welcoming his rise? I distinctly feel the opposite in this forum (maybe not in other sections of the forum )

Yes, I agree that he’s phenomenal and his development has been remarkable, but would really like to see him over 3 weeks before proclaiming that he’s ruined all chances at the tour for everyone else in the years to come. Less than a year ago the sentiment from some was that Del Toro was poised to take the throne. He’s had a cracking start this year, and a shame about the injury.

The situation is different, but Ayuso at 19 had a GT podium and that hasn’t turned out so well. Seixas certainly appears on an upward trajectory, I just recommend some patience.

 

[Tonton]

I guess I'll have another beer today ...sweeeeeeeet!