Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Lorzenz08]

He was 7th at Lombardia, after his Bronze at European. Avery good result, but not a good result for a winner, and it wanst a dissapintment. It was a great resut and if he do 12th at le Tour without any stage and he has learned a lot, he will be happym becouse to be 12 th for a debutant of le Tour at his age is really promising

The problem is a GT is not a one day race. If at the end of the first week he is close to Pogacar, everyone in France is going to believe in him. That will be a lot of pressure to handle and if if he then bonks he must have strong shoulders.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The problem is a GT is not a one day race. If at the end of the first week he is close to Pogacar, everyone in France is going to believe in him. That will be a lot of pressure if he then bonks.

This is a part of learning experience. Next time he will know better how to manage his energy. I think this year the pressure will be the lowest compared to the next few years.

 

[Lorzenz08]

This is a part of learning experience. Next time he will know better how to manage his energy. I think this year the pressure will be the lowest compared to the next few years.

I agree, he needs to go there with the mentality of enjoying himself and doing his best with no expectations.

 

[Taxus4a]

The problem is a GT is not a one day race. If at the end of the first week he is close to Pogacar, everyone in France is going to believe in him. That will be a lot of pressure to handle and if if he then bonks he must have strong shoulders.

He manage well the pressure, The problem is people, could be dissapointed. But the mistake are the people.
i am not so sure he will fade at the end..but anyway should be normal and I think if he exokain properly is normal and France is always aware he is only 19, and his rivals are Pogacar, Vingegaard, Remco,, It shouldnt be a problem.
And he should start quite bad at Barcelona TTT, althogh it is in part an ITT and the final is good for him.
But I understand your point and theoricaly He should go to La Vuelta first,

 

[Tim Cahill]

He manage well the pressure, The problem is people, could be dissapointed. But the mistake are the people.
i am not so sure he will fade at the end..but anyway should be normal and I think if he exokain properly is normal and France is always aware he is only 19, and his rivals are Pogacar, Vingegaard, Remco,, It shouldnt be a problem.
And he should start quite bad at Barcelona TTT, althogh it is in part an ITT and the final is good for him.
But I understand your point and theoricaly He should go to La Vuelta first,

He will probably have Hoole, Bissegger, Kooij and Benoot for the TTT so should be fine, unless Hoole tries another solo.

He should go to the Vuelta because he can win it, he can't win the Tour currently without other riders crashing or getting sick.

 

[Taxus4a]

He will probably have Hoole, Bissegger, Kooij and Benoot for the TTT so should be fine, unless Hoole tries another solo.

He should go to the Vuelta because he can win it, he can't win the Tour currently without other riders crashing or getting sick.

It depends the field and his shape, not so sure he can win la Vuelta. But it just to see how good he can be already at 3 weeks.
He will have an strong team for barcelona, yes, but the others will be better, He lost Algarves flat ITTT againts Ayuso, with an small diference ( I was surprised), but it is not just the team, he is not an specialist. We talk about Tour de france level.

 

[Oldman]

He manage well the pressure, The problem is people, could be dissapointed. But the mistake are the people.
i am not so sure he will fade at the end..but anyway should be normal and I think if he exokain properly is normal and France is always aware he is only 19, and his rivals are Pogacar, Vingegaard, Remco,, It shouldnt be a problem.
And he should start quite bad at Barcelona TTT, althogh it is in part an ITT and the final is good for him.
But I understand your point and theoricaly He should go to La Vuelta first,

We'd hope fans would be aware and forgive the limitations of a 19 year old.
I typed that not believing a word after watching several former Euro cycling strongholds lose to someone; NOT FROM OUR NEIGHBORHOOD. They can be cruel but the kid seems capable of tuning it out.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

He could also go to the Giro and dominate it before exploding and losing to a guy attempting the Giro-Tour double and then return at the Vuelta to win that one instead.

 

[canina82]

For me it's very clear he will race the TdF this year and next year he will race the Giro + WC as his main targets.

 

[YavorD]

He was 7th at Lombardia, after his Bronze at European. Avery good result, but not a good result for a winner, and it wanst a dissapintment. It was a great resut and if he do 12th at le Tour without any stage and he has learned a lot, he will be happym becouse to be 12 th for a debutant of le Tour at his age is really promising

I think that he just didn't have THAT level yet rather than the engine for the long races.
We didn't have many races to properly compare him, but I don't think Seixas from last autumn destroys Itzulia or Faun-Ardeche the way he did this year.
Therefore, UI see no reason to think that Seixas from this year would be at least around Evenepoel in the last Lombardia

 

[hayneplane]

He manage well the pressure, The problem is people, could be dissapointed. But the mistake are the people.
i am not so sure he will fade at the end..but anyway should be normal and I think if he exokain properly is normal and France is always aware he is only 19, and his rivals are Pogacar, Vingegaard, Remco,, It shouldnt be a problem.
And he should start quite bad at Barcelona TTT, althogh it is in part an ITT and the final is good for him.
But I understand your point and theoricaly He should go to La Vuelta first,

Decathlon will have a pretty good squad for the TTT. Quite possibly just as good as UAE until the point at which Pogacar sets off alone. Visma should be the best of the big contenders teams.

 

[Tonton]

He was 7th at Lombardia, after his Bronze at European. Avery good result, but not a good result for a winner, and it wanst a dissapintment. It was a great resut and if he do 12th at le Tour without any stage and he has learned a lot, he will be happym becouse to be 12 th for a debutant of le Tour at his age is really promising

...Pinot finished 10th and won a stage on his first TdF. Sorry, I couldn't resist. But on a serious note, the French public will want more than a 12th, 8th, or 6th for his first participation. He's already better than Pinot and Bardet, who podiumed. 2nd place would be a minimum, beating Vingo would be a massive accomplishment. Nothin less, methinks.

Other than that I agree with everything that you wrote.

In LBL, if Remco and Seixas ride against Pogacar, if they team-up, one of the two could get the bag. Otherwise, Teddy is too strong.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

...Pinot finished 10th and won a stage on his first TdF. Sorry, I couldn't resist. But on a serious note, the French public will want more than a 12th, 8th, or 6th for his first participation. He's already better than Pinot and Bardet, who podiumed. 2nd place would be a minimum, beating Vingo would be a massive accomplishment. Nothin less, methinks.

Other than that I agree with everything that you wrote.

In LBL, if Remco and Seixas ride against Pogacar, if they team-up, one of the two could get the bag. Otherwise, Teddy is too strong.

Nothing less than beating Vingegaard?! While he is still in his prime? At age 19?!

Vingegaard is a top 5 climber all-time. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but that is a crazy expectation.

 

[Rob5091]

Let's all wait until after LBL before we start putting the rent money on the young kid to win the Tour. The Tour is one big friggin' circus over 3 weeks and he'll need a team that'll match UAE and Visma. I'd send him to do some real races like Tro Bro Leon and learn to use his elbows.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Nothing less than beating Vingegaard?! While he is still in his prime? At age 19?!

Vingegaard is a top 5 climber all-time. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but that is a crazy expectation.

Some people seem to forget how crazy the dominance of Pogacar and Vingegaard has been (five consecutive 1-2 places!) and they are not done. The bar at the Tour is set super high for any new challengers. 3rd place should be considered a very successful debut for Seixas (and it's more realistic).

 

[Extinction]

I think the dilemma for Seixas at the TdF is that if he races strategically for the podium he has extremely high chances to achieve it. While if he races to win, there is a high risk he bonks and maybe barely finish top 10.

And for a 19yo who has the mentality of a winner I don't think he will want to race strategically for the podium.
Which means, mentally would he be able absorb the blow of potentially competing for the win, with the entire French nation behind him, and at some point lose it all ?

Not going to be a problem, unless he drops Pogacar on Sunday. His maturity seems that of Pog when Tadej won the Tour at two years older, because Roglic collapsed in the end. Pog went into that Tour thinking of the podium and the team didn't really imagine he could actually win it. Well, Pog isn't Roglic and there is still Vingegaard, so Seixas would be insane to put pressure on himself, let alone the team, for him to win it. Like Pog in 2021, Paul should go dreaming of the podium, race like hell and just have fun.

 

[GdL]

He manage well the pressure, The problem is people, could be dissapointed. But the mistake are the people.
i am not so sure he will fade at the end..but anyway should be normal and I think if he exokain properly is normal and France is always aware he is only 19, and his rivals are Pogacar, Vingegaard, Remco,, It shouldnt be a problem.
And he should start quite bad at Barcelona TTT, althogh it is in part an ITT and the final is good for him.
But I understand your point and theoricaly He should go to La Vuelta first,

The problem isn't just external pressure, it’s the weight of his own expectations. Once you build up that kind of self-expectation, fueled by the media and fans, it’s incredibly hard to stay grounded.

Ayuso is a perfect example of this. He finished third in his debut Vuelta while being a year younger than Pogačar was when he achieved the same result. I think that convinced him he was destined to be better than Pogačar.

But as I’ve said before, age is often just a number. We see it in the junior categories all the time: the rider who looks like the strongest at sixteen doesn't always turn out to be the best over the long haul.

 

[Extinction]

Se

The problem isn't just external pressure, it’s the weight of his own expectations. Once you build up that kind of self-expectation, fueled by the media and fans, it’s incredibly hard to stay grounded.

Ayuso is a perfect example of this. He finished third in his debut Vuelta while being a year younger than Pogačar was when he achieved the same result. I think that convinced him he was destined to be better than Pogačar.

But as I’ve said before, age is often just a number. We see it in the junior categories all the time: the rider who looks like the strongest at sixteen doesn't always turn out to be the best over the long haul.

Seixas is not Ayuso, as recent results have proven. He is the man calling the shots on his team. Ayuso was not. Ayuso benefitted from being on UAE and Spanish, when he came third in that Vuelta. Paul is grounded, Ayuso is not. Paul is cut from a different cloth and has a bigger engine.

 

[Taxus4a]

I think that he just didn't have THAT level yet rather than the engine for the long races.
We didn't have many races to properly compare him, but I don't think Seixas from last autumn destroys Itzulia or Faun-Ardeche the way he did this year.
Therefore, UI see no reason to think that Seixas from this year would be at least around Evenepoel in the last Lombardia

Maybe. I think he is not at the level of Remco for races as Lieje or similar, for Lombardia, maybe. NBut Seixas made an step, important step to be one of the best of the moment in this superlative era. But it is not a super step as he was last year 3rd in the european, just behind Pogacar and Remco. He has past to be a point behind Del Toro to be a point above Del Toro. Seixas is very good for long climb as he showed at Aralar at second stage in the basque country, so for mountins of a week race or il Lombardia I think he is already at level of Remco, but not in other kind of races. We watched Andy Scjleck winning Liege, so it should be a race wich suits a lot to Seixas...but I think we have forgot what kind of rider level is Remco, especially for this kind of races.

 

[Taxus4a]

And there is another thing we have to realize, last year Seixas competed:

Worlds, 13 th, 261 Km
Il Lombardia, 7th., 241 km
European, 3rd, 202 Km

Similar profile races, but there is a fact, as it is logical at his age, the shorter the race, the better the result

As well, it should be normal, at a grad Tour, he should fail a little at the end. But anyway is not the same.

He has showed this year he is super at classics of about 200 km, but he didnt rode one of LBL length..and last year he was 13th in that distance. He coudl play a role at Liege and make his mark, but It will be difficult at the end can stay at the level of Pogacar, Remo or even other riders.

 

[Taxus4a]

Decathlon will have a pretty good squad for the TTT. Quite possibly just as good as UAE until the point at which Pogacar sets off alone. Visma should be the best of the big contenders teams.

People as Del Toro or Adam Yates are better for mountain stages than for TT, but anyway are very good riders and a good time trialist as well. Mc Nulty is an specilist and Soler, Wellens, very good for a TTT...they are thinking to get Sivakov out, so that shows how strong the team is. IMo they are at similar ñevel than Visma in general, maybe for the TTT cpuyld be better Visma, not sure, but a little bit better than Decathlon.

 

[Berniece]

And there is another thing we have to realize, last year Seixas competed:

Worlds, 13 th, 261 Km
Il Lombardia, 7th., 241 km
European, 3rd, 202 Km

Similar profile races, but there is a fact, as it is logical at his age, the shorter the race, the better the result

As well, it should be normal, at a grad Tour, he should fail a little at the end. But anyway is not the same.

He has showed this year he is super at classics of about 200 km, but he didnt rode one of LBL length..and last year he was 13th in that distance. He coudl play a role at Liege and make his mark, but It will be difficult at the end can stay at the level of Pogacar, Remo or even other riders.

Indeed, that's the biggest unknown. I think in a race of 200km he is good enough compete with Pogacar/Evenepoel but not beat them. In a race of +250km's, that might be different.

 

[Taxus4a]

...Pinot finished 10th and won a stage on his first TdF. Sorry, I couldn't resist. But on a serious note, the French public will want more than a 12th, 8th, or 6th for his first participation. He's already better than Pinot and Bardet, who podiumed. 2nd place would be a minimum, beating Vingo would be a massive accomplishment. Nothin less, methinks.

Other than that I agree with everything that you wrote.

In LBL, if Remco and Seixas ride against Pogacar, if they team-up, one of the two could get the bag. Otherwise, Teddy is too strong.

People could want whatever, and Siexas is an amazing rider who is making history already and has no limits, but if he decided to go at le Tour, it is just to know how is him at his age for a GT and start learning, One thing is Algarve or Basque country (this year the level was lower than other) and another le Tour. Could he keep surprising us and challenge Tadej Pogačar for the Tour victory? Maybe, he has showed he has no limit and capacity to make ilogical results...

But it is quite unrealistic. He has showed he is better than Del Toro for classics, especially about 200 Km and 1 week races, but maybe Del Toro is today better for 3 weeks, and it is a question of age. anyway Del Toro showed al Il Giro or Ayuso at la Vuelta you can be podium very young, so we dont know.

Pinot and Bardet were no so young...frech Public cant compare. But it doent matter how dissapinted could they get if he go to le Tpur and he is not podium...he will give the best moment of cycling since Himault to that country, and above all to cycling fans arround the world
(Seixas is an portugues last name wich came from Galicia, Spain)

 

[Taxus4a]

The problem isn't just external pressure, it’s the weight of his own expectations. Once you build up that kind of self-expectation, fueled by the media and fans, it’s incredibly hard to stay grounded.

Ayuso is a perfect example of this. He finished third in his debut Vuelta while being a year younger than Pogačar was when he achieved the same result. I think that convinced him he was destined to be better than Pogačar.

But as I’ve said before, age is often just a number. We see it in the junior categories all the time: the rider who looks like the strongest at sixteen doesn't always turn out to be the best over the long haul.

But Seixas has already the level of Ayuso. At least for some kind of races. Ayuso did the mistake to go to UAE.
I understand your point, I consider logical if he doenst go to le Tour, but he will have presure at any race with that logic, I have even read he should win la Vuelta. If Pogacar go there, even after le Tour, I dont think Seixas is able. And that considering he is already very good for third week..wich is quite unrealistic.

 

[Taxus4a]

when I said to a friend earlier this year he is better tahn Del Tiro, he laught and he fixed my message to laugh later the year.
Yes, we can say he is better than Del Toro now,and he deleted the message, (but maybe not in all the races). That is madness, but there are thinggs wich are not possible. If he go to le Tour they cant underestimate him, but not more, He is not favorurite for the podium. Le Tour is not this year basque country or fleche.
Acording to Algave, Ayuso is more favourite to the podium at le Tour, and more in three weeks.
Yes, they had the same time at the mountain stages, and it ewas just medium mountain, but acording that race, ayuso should be more favourite, and maybe siome people as losing perspertive, But he do is amazing, and now, nor Pogacar, nor Merck, nor Remco who started winning big things at 19 as well.. We have to enjoy this, but not things at unrealisthic things. even on him. He is not promissing, he is a reality who counts even for Liege, but second favourite is madness