Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Extinction]

when I said to a friend earlier this year he is better tahn Del Tiro, he laught and he fixed my message to laugh later the year.
Yes, we can say he is better than Del Toro now,and he deleted the message, (but maybe not in all the races). That is madness, but there are thinggs wich are not possible. If he go to le Tour they cant underestimate him, but not more, He is not favorurite for the podium. Le Tour is not this year basque country or fleche.
Acording to Algave, Ayuso is more favourite to the podium at le Tour, and more in three weeks.
Yes, they had the same time at the mountain stages, and it ewas just medium mountain, but acording that race, ayuso should be more favourite, and maybe siome people as losing perspertive, But he do is amazing, and now, nor Pogacar, nor Merck, nor Remco who started winning big things at 19 as well.. We have to enjoy this, but not things at unrealisthic things. even on him. He is not promissing, he is a reality who counts even for Liege, but second favourite is madness

He isn't the second favorite that's Vingo. At any rate, it all depends on if he can improve for the Tour and, if so, he can dream of the podium if till now is any indication. Itzulia isn't the Tour but at that point in the season say Lipowitz was as good he could be at that time, like Paul, and he still got worked over. Everbody will show up at the Tour hopefully in top condition, which is the same for Seixas. I hope he does the Dauphine and then we should see more. I don't think Ayuso has it mentally for the Tour.

 

[Taxus4a]

He isn't the second favorite that's Vingo. At any rate, it all depends on if he can improve for the Tour and, if so, he can dream of the podium if till now is any indication. Itzulia isn't the Tour but at that point in the season say Lipowitz was as good he could be at that time, like Paul, and he still got worked over. Everbody will show up at the Tour hopefully in top condition, which is the same for Seixas. I hope he does the Dauphine and then we should see more. I don't think Ayuso has it mentally for the Tour.

It is obvious Viongegard is the second favorite, and if we believe him he can win this time, and I think so
Third, it is no so clear. For me Remco, but with this route with big mountains and si little flat km ITT, you never Know. If he is ok, he should be on the podium. Seixas is unkonw, you cant rule out, For me Ayuso, yes, count for the podium, although you are not the only one you think that way, Lipowith,,it is depend the role into the team...
Tom Pidcock as well can get it. For Del Toro, it depend on Pogacar, if this one has a problem or he has easy the win he has one option too. abd it is difficlut for me to say one more

 

[Extinction]

It is obvious Viongegard is the second favorite, and if we believe him he can win this time, and I think so
Third, it is no so clear. For me Remco, but with this route with big mountains and si little flat km ITT, you never Know. If he is ok, he should be on the podium. Seixas is unkonw, you cant rule out, For me Ayuso, yes, count for the podium, although you are not the only one you think that way, Lipowith,,it is depend the role into the team...
Tom Pidcock as well can get it. For Del Toro, it depend on Pogacar, if this one has a problem or he has easy the win he has one option too. abd it is difficlut for me to say one more

On Remco we need to see already on Sunday and then at the Dauphine. So far he hasn't shown nearly the climbing prowess of Seixas.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

On Remco we need to see already on Sunday and then at the Dauphine. So far he hasn't shown nearly the climbing prowess of Seixas'.

No he hasn't, Seixas is easily in top3 w/kg wise. The most Seixas' rivals can hope for is he'll be too eager to show off his abilities vs Pogacar & Vingegaard and will pay for bad energy management in this long race. It's quite possible for this enthusiastic and ambitious boy.

 

[Extinction]

No he didn't, Seixas is easily in top3 w/kg wise. The most Seixas' rivals can hope for is he'll be too eager to show off his abilities vs Pogacar & Vingegaard and will pay for bad energy management in this long race. It's quite possible for this enthusiastic and ambitious boy.

Yea, but then he himself has told folks to remember Pog might be the goat and that he doesn't have the level to beat him yet. Sounds like the lad has a good head on his shoulders but does need to learn when to hold back sometimes (like last stage of Itzulia). At the Tour such a mistake could cost you big time. But sombody at Decathlon must be able to coach him into wiser choices. At the Tour all he needs to do is test himself against those guys. He shouldn't be taking any initiatives, unless he passes some major exams first.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yea, but then he himself has told folks to remember Pog might be the goat and that he doesn't have the level to beat him yet. Sounds like the lad has a good head on his shoulders but does need to learn when to hold back sometimes (like last stage of Itzulia). At the Tour such a mistake could cost you big time. But sombody at Decathlon must be able to coach him into wiser choices. At the Tour all he needs to do is test himself against those guys. He shouldn't be taking any initiatives, unless he passes some major exams first.

Who will tell Seixas to slow down if he thinks he can follow Pogacar? But after a few km (or during the next stage) it may suddenly get very difficult. He doesn't know his body and recovery abilities yet but does anybody in the team know it? It'll be his baptism of fire and whatever will be will be. He'll learn his limits better for the future. As a DS I wouldn't limit him at all and just let it flow without putting any pressure regarding his GC spot .

 

[Extinction]

Who will tell Seixas to slow down if he thinks he can follow Pogacar? But after a few km (or during the next stage) it may suddenly get very difficult. He doesn't know his body and recovery abilities yet but does anybody in the team know it? It'll be his baptism of fire and whatever will be will be. He'll learn his limits better for the future. As a DS I wouldn't limit him at all and just let it flow without putting any pressure regarding his GC spot .

Well, as to your last sentence, there's a way to go about it while maximizing your performances. That doesn't mean putting any pressure on him, just racing smart. At that level he should know if there are still 10 kms to climb and you are already hurting that's when you do damage control and push on without blowing. He should only go over the limit with the finish line in sight. He has the luxury, however, this year to pace himself without the pressure to win. If he and the team are smart, Paul should perform well, whatever GC place that means.

 

[GdL]

But Seixas has already the level of Ayuso. At least for some kind of races. Ayuso did the mistake to go to UAE.
I understand your point, I consider logical if he doenst go to le Tour, but he will have presure at any race with that logic, I have even read he should win la Vuelta. If Pogacar go there, even after le Tour, I dont think Seixas is able. And that considering he is already very good for third week..wich is quite unrealistic.

Maybe moving to UAE might not have been the perfect choice, but it’s not as if he wasn't given his own opportunities. In my opinion, Ayuso’s real issue was failing to realize he hadn't reached the level he thought he had.

He was so disconnected from reality that he actually thought he could go to the 2024 Tour de France and snatch the leadership from Pogačar. According to Giannetti, it was Ayuso himself who insisted on being there. UAE was more than happy to have him lead in the Grand Tours where Pogačar wasn't competing, so I don't see his presence on the team as the problem. But it says a lot that he couldn't see how far superior Pogacar was to him. I mean: since he was on the same team it should have been more obvious to him than to us, that he couldn't yet compete with him.

The truth is, he doesn't stand a chance against Pogačar regardless of what team he's on. However, by staying at UAE, he’s actually in a better position to coordinate his schedule and target the races where Pogačar wouldn’t be present.

 

[Taxus4a]

On Remco we need to see already on Sunday and then at the Dauphine. So far he hasn't shown nearly the climbing prowess of Seixas.

Do you mean at his hole life? Remco climbed Plateau de Bielle better than super record of Pantani. That a hight level. Maybe Seixas is now at that level , but we will see. Skeljmose, Tullet, Izaguirre, are not Remco. Las autum Remco climbed clearly better than him at World, European and Lombardía, especially at Lombardía. Seixas has improve and maybe he is at that level, but invthe flat parts Remco is better, and better than Pogacar.

 

[Tonton]

Good points...and that's why Seixas should not ride Le Tour: he's untested in three-week races, not ready. He's like a 5-0 boxing phenom, we all get crazy and want him to challenge Tyson Pogacar for the unified bag of belts. I trust Guimard on this one.

Now if Seixas goes for it, of course, I will root for him and hope that he's the best of the rest. It has to be the expectation. I know it's asking a lot, but what will Paul learn if he gets a 5th or a 9th place and a stage win, 20 minutes down on Pog?

 

[houtdffan]

And there is another thing we have to realize, last year Seixas competed:

Worlds, 13 th, 261 Km
Il Lombardia, 7th., 241 km
European, 3rd, 202 Km

Similar profile races, but there is a fact, as it is logical at his age, the shorter the race, the better the result

As well, it should be normal, at a grad Tour, he should fail a little at the end. But anyway is not the same.

He has showed this year he is super at classics of about 200 km, but he didnt rode one of LBL length..and last year he was 13th in that distance. He coudl play a role at Liege and make his mark, but It will be difficult at the end can stay at the level of Pogacar, Remo or even other riders.

Sexias was more than 3 mins behind Remco at the ECRR.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

Sexias was more than 3 mins behind Remco at the ECRR.

Yes, and he was 6 minutes behind Lipowitz in Dauphiné, but in Itzulia he finished ahead him in every stage.

He's not the same Seixas.

 

[Extinction]

Do you mean at his hole life? Remco climbed Plateau de Bielle better than super record of Pantani. That a hight level. Maybe Seixas is now at that level , but we will see. Skeljmose, Tullet, Izaguirre, are not Remco. Las autum Remco climbed clearly better than him at World, European and Lombardía, especially at Lombardía. Seixas has improve and maybe he is at that level, but invthe flat parts Remco is better, and better than Pogacar.

I'm talking about who is hot now and showing impressive things uphill. To date this year Seixas has, Remco has not. That's why I say tomorrow Remco needs to impress uphill against Pogacar and Seixas and then in the Dauphine to be able to speak of a top placing for him at the Tour. He doesn't necessarily have to beat Pog in Liege, but be very competitive and not get dropped by Paul. That would be a bad sign.

 

[Taxus4a]

Sexias was more than 3 mins behind Remco at the ECRR.

Yes, for that reason when people day that he climb better already I have to see that. I am not sure. Depende de climb and the race it could be, but not in general. Seixas has given an step ahead, but no to close those 3 minutes

 

[Taxus4a]

I'm talking about who is hot now and showing impressive things uphill. To date this year Seixas has, Remco has not. That's why I say tomorrow Remco needs to impress uphill against Pogacar and Seixas and then in the Dauphine to be able to speak of a top placing for him at the Tour. He doesn't necessarily have to beat Pog in Liege, but be very competitive and not get dropped by Paul. That would be a bad sign.

Remco has nothing to show as he has been years riding. He has just to get his weight ( I hope he is ok at this moment, other way he cabt win Liege).
At Volta a Cataluña he wasnt at his best climber version, maybe close...but I think Seixas wouldn be able to follow Vingegard. Lipowitz finished with Seixas Queen stage at Basque Country. At Aralar I think Bora has a problem with 2 leaders. Seixas attacked very early, and maybe Lipowitz payed to be the only one to be at Cataluña and Itzulia. Remco wanst really worse than Lipo at Cataluña, he just try ro follow Vingealgaard firt mountain stages and he payed later and the team put Lipowitz as leader for GC. But I see always stronger at Remco.

Anyway, so far, Seixas has showed stronger in the mountains than Remco this year. In next months I am not so sure, maybe similar, or Seixas better for very step climbs, I dont know.

 

[vappa]

Do you mean at his hole life? Remco climbed Plateau de Bielle better than super record of Pantani. That a hight level. Maybe Seixas is now at that level , but we will see. Skeljmose, Tullet, Izaguirre, are not Remco. Las autum Remco climbed clearly better than him at World, European and Lombardía, especially at Lombardía. Seixas has improve and maybe he is at that level, but invthe flat parts Remco is better, and better than Pogacar.

That Pantani PdB record was not super at all, of his many MTF wins at his peak, this was very unimpressive. Alpe is a super record, Hautacam by Riis is a super record, this wasn't

 

[Extinction]

Remco has nothing to show as he has been years riding. He has just to get his weight ( I hope he is ok at this moment, other way he cabt win Liege).
At Volta a Cataluña he wasnt at his best climber version, maybe close...but I think Seixas wouldn be able to follow Vingegard. Lipowitz finished with Seixas Queen stage at Basque Country. At Aralar I think Bora has a problem with 2 leaders. Seixas attacked very early, and maybe Lipowitz payed to be the only one to be at Cataluña and Itzulia. Remco wanst really worse than Lipo at Cataluña, he just try ro follow Vingealgaard firt mountain stages and he payed later and the team put Lipowitz as leader for GC. But I see always stronger at Remco.

Anyway, so far, Seixas has showed stronger in the mountains than Remco this year. In next months I am not so sure, maybe similar, or Seixas better for very step climbs, I dont know.

But that was all just the preamble to the main stuff, during and after Flanders, so I hope to see a suprisingly competitive Remco on the Ardennes climbs deep into LBL. That's the sign he needs to give a response to the doubters. I expect a very good Evenepoel tomorrow, which is imperative for a top result and leading into the Tour phase of his season with good moral.

 

[canina82]

That Pantani PdB record was not super at all, of his many MTF wins at his peak, this was very unimpressive. Alpe is a super record, Hautacam by Riis is a super record, this wasn't

PdB times are definitely overrated. It's always very convenient to say how good Remco is as a climber because he beated Pantani but ignoring the fact he just lost (almost) 3' in 10.5 km seems wild to me. Everything went perfect for nuclear times that day. Remco will never be as good as Pantani in the high mountains, thi is very obvious.

 

[Berniece]

Yes, for that reason when people day that he climb better already I have to see that. I am not sure. Depende de climb and the race it could be, but not in general. Seixas has given an step ahead, but no to close those 3 minutes

I don’t think so either. Seixas dropped Lipowitz in Basque, but RBH thinks without the crash Evenepoel would’ve been close to Vingegaard in Catalunya. So also better than Lipowitz. I wouldn’t be surprised if Evenepoel is at similar level or better than Seixas at the moment.

 

[Red Rick]

PdB times are definitely overrated. It's always very convenient to say how good Remco is as a climber because he beated Pantani but ignoring the fact he just lost (almost) 3' in 10.5 km seems wild to me. Everything went perfect for nuclear times that day. Remco will never be as good as Pantani in the high mountains, thi is very obvious.

Yes he lost 3 minutes, but it's also not genuine to only take 2/3rds of a 40 minute climb.

 

[GdL]

Who will tell Seixas to slow down if he thinks he can follow Pogacar? But after a few km (or during the next stage) it may suddenly get very difficult. He doesn't know his body and recovery abilities yet but does anybody in the team know it? It'll be his baptism of fire and whatever will be will be. He'll learn his limits better for the future. As a DS I wouldn't limit him at all and just let it flow without putting any pressure regarding his GC spot .

And that’s exactly how it should be: zero pressure, no expectations. The primary objective here is to bank experience. In the long term, he may benefit more from making aggressive mistakes and learning from them than from racing cautiously just to secure a podium. Realistically, a win is off the table this year with Vingegaard and Pogačar likely arriving in peak form; it’s highly improbable that both would falter. Even if they did, he’d still face an uphill battle against more seasoned, experienced rivals like Remco or Lipowitz.

 

[canina82]

Yes he lost 3 minutes, but it's also not genuine to only take 2/3rds of a 40 minute climb.

The gap would be bigger if Vingegaard decided to attack right at the bottom. For that reason I always count the moment a rider gets distanced.

 

[Netserk]

The gap would be bigger if Vingegaard decided to attack right at the bottom. For that reason I always count the moment a rider gets distanced.

if anything it would have been smaller

jorgensons pace was better for vingegaard than for evenepoel and landa could have paced for him if needed

 

[Red Rick]

The gap would be bigger if Vingegaard decided to attack right at the bottom. For that reason I always count the moment a rider gets distanced.

By this metric Pogacar's best win that Tour was when he suckwheeled and sprinted for 200m on Col de la Couillole.

I'm all in favor because it makes Roglic look better

 

[canina82]

if anything it would have been smaller

jorgensons pace was better for vingegaard than for evenepoel and landa could have paced for him if needed

I agree but this doesn't mean Vingegaard wouldn't gain more time if he attacked earlier. He was very laboured but still gained 8 s/km to Remco after getting dropped by Pogacar.