Poll+betfair odds

[Cobblestones]

As the title says, poll with betfair odds.

ETA, limited to 10 which is the maximum for this forum.

The next are:

Roman Kreuziger, 90
Andreas Kloden, 130
Michael Rogers, 130
Samuel Sanchez, 160
Vincenzo Nibali, 170
Carlos Sastre, 170
Levi Leipheimer, 190
Luis Leon Sanchez, 200

 

[ericthesportsman6]

How is rodriguez not even on this.

 

[Straßenrennen]

well im off to betfair to off my life savings up to anyone wanting to bet on armstrong, could do with doubling it up.

 

[Hotbrakes]

Frank is a much better bet than Andy.

 

[ilillillli]

sastre at 170 or liephiemer at 190 are not at all bad bets for a couple of bucks.

 

[ttrider]

almost worth putting a small amount on Menchov, Gesink, Frank, Samuel Sanchez and liephiemer

unbelievable odds on all of them Levi at 190 is unbelievable tho if you think he still may have his gun tt and he holds on elsewhere its a major win

 

[Cobblestones]

Almost everybody beside Contador is a decent bet. I was surprised myself. What if Bertie is caught in the crosswind again (with a few minutes behind)? Or he falls on the cobbles? Or he has one bad day in the mountains? You could rake in quite a profit.

 

[Cobblestones]

Ok, update after one week of racing.
(Times are gaps to Evans)

1) Contador from 1.65 down to 1.53 (1'01")
2) A. Schleck from 10 down to 8.8 (0'30")
3) Armstrong from 15 up to 16.5 (1'51")
4) Basso from 32 up to 60 (2'41")
5) Wiggins from 34 down to 26 (1'10")
6) Evans from 38 down to 12.5 (0'0")
7) Menchov from 40 up to 80 (1'10")
8) Gesink from 40 up to 310 (2'37")
9) F. Schleck from 55 up to infinity
10) Brajkovic from 85 up to 110 (2'21")
11) Kreuziger from 90 up to 260 (1'45")
12) Kloden from 130 up to 280 (2'22")
13) Rogers from 130 up to 400 (2'21")
14) S. Sanchez from 160 up to 270 (2'25")
15) Nibali from 170 up to infinity
16) Sastre from 170 up to 290 (2'40")
17) Leipheimer from 190 up to 470 (2'14")
18) L. L. Sanchez from 200 up to 400 (1'46")

There's a couple of newcomers below 200 such as
Van Den Broeck at 160 (1'03")
Vinokourov at 170 (0'52")

If money talks, Contador, Schlecklet, Wiggins, Evans, Van Den Broeck and Vinokourov have performed better than expected.

Falling off the list with odds higher than 200:
Nibali, F. Schleck, Gesink, Kreuziger, Kloden, Rogers, S. Sanchez, Sastre, Leipheimer, L. L. Sanchez.

 

[Cobblestones]

Finally, a new ranking based on odds:

1) Contador 1.53 (1'01")
2) A. Schleck 8.8 (0'30")
3) Evans 12.5 (0'0") up three ranks
4) Armstrong 16.5 (1'51") down one rank
5) Wiggins 26 (1'10")
6) Basso 60 (2'41") down two ranks
7) Menchov 80 (1'10")
8) Brajkovic 110 (2'21") up two ranks
9) Van Den Broeck 160 (1'03") new to list
10) Vinokourov 170 (0'52") new to list

I'll update it again in a week from now.

 

[Mambo95]

There's some good each way action to be had there, notably Gesink and Kreuziger (if Betfair do each way on the Tour)

 

[Thee_chisa]

these things get skewed though with fans betting on their guy. like every world cup, england are always in the top 3 to win it and never do

 

[Cobblestones]

these things get skewed though with fans betting on their guy. like every world cup, england are always in the top 3 to win it and never do

Well, yeah, isn't that the point? There needs to be a fair amount of suckers to make money off.

 

[Cobblestones]

Finally, a new ranking based on odds:

1) Contador 1.53 (1'01")
2) A. Schleck 8.8 (0'30")
3) Evans 12.5 (0'0") up three ranks
4) Armstrong 16.5 (1'51") down one rank
5) Wiggins 26 (1'10")
6) Basso 60 (2'41") down two ranks
7) Menchov 80 (1'10")
8) Brajkovic 110 (2'21") up two ranks
9) Van Den Broeck 160 (1'03") new to list
10) Vinokourov 170 (0'52") new to list

I'll update it again in a week from now.

Ok, after the Alps and most of the transition stages, we're approaching the Pyrenees. The most recent odds are

1) Contador 1.29 (0'31")
2) Schleck 5.1 (0'00")
3) Menchov 80 (2'58") up 4 ranks
4) Sanchez 90 (2'45") new to list
5) Basso 160 (5'30") up 1 rank

Both Contador and Schleck have come down, Menchov stayed the same and Basso went up a lot. Sanchez came back onto the list.

Evans, Armstrong, Wiggins, Brajkovic, Van Den Broeck, and Vinokourov all have higher odds than 200, so I took them off the list.

Maybe I'll update it once more before next weekend. This TdF there wasn't really that much movement. The top two stayed up there and steadily improved their chances while mostly everybody else never seemed to have been in contention.