Poll: Will Urán be better than Froome in the Stage 20 ITT?

[TMP402]

I know this is way premature but if the GC picture stays roughly as it is until after Stage 19, it seems likely the only person who can beat Froome is Urán. Will he be able to overturn Froome in the Stage 20 ITT?

A reminder of the ITT profile:

Edit: I apologise if the wording is unclear. In my defence, I am drunk.

 

[classicomano]

Yeah, no. When was the last time Uran did a good TT?

 

[Escarabajo]

Why this poll?

There is one week left. Come on man!! Don't jinx it!!

 

[Alexandre B.]

Embarrassing question.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

Embarrassing question.

I refer you to my admission of being drunk.

 

[DanielSong39]

Froome does have bad time trials here and there so it's not out of the question. But I think Uran's chances of making up 30 seconds is unlikely (though not impossible).

I realize this is ancient history but Froome lost a ton of time to both Uran and Contador in the 2014 Vuelta and it cost him the race. Probably has little to no bearing on what will happen in this year's Tour.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Sounds like rock and a hard place to me......

 

[DanielSong39]

A better question would be, what are Uran's chances of making up 30 seconds in the stage 20 ITT? 1 in 10? 1 in 20?

I wouldn't go lower than 1 in 20 because this is bike racing and unexpected things do happen sometimes.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

A better question would be, what are Uran's chances of making up 30 seconds in the stage 20 ITT? 1 in 10? 1 in 20?

Fair point.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Poll: Will Urán be better than Froome in the Stage 20 IT

So where are the will aru, bardet, landa, Quintana etc be better than froome in the stage 20 ITT threads? This poll maybe would have made sense in 2014 but I don't see a reason for it in 2017

 

[TMP402]

Re: Poll: Will Urán be better than Froome in the Stage 20 IT

So where are the will aru, bardet, landa, Quintana etc be better than froome in the stage 20 ITT threads? This poll maybe would have made sense in 2014 but I don't see a reason for it in 2017

Me: Who will finish first out of Froome and Uran?
You: aru, bardet, landa, Quintana

 

[johnymax]

I want Uran to do better but I think if everything goes according to plan (no crash, no mechanical...) there's no chance that he'll do better than Froome. I'm not even sure he'll ride a better ITT than Aru. That's how bad of a time trialist he's been for the last two years.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Yes, Uran hasn't ridden a good TT for a while now, but he hasn't climbed anywhere near this well for a while either. In fact, I'd say these climbing performances are arguably the best of Uran's career. Definitely wouldn't surprise me if we see a return of Uran's exceptional TTing ability, especially with this being the last year of his contract.

But yeah, beating Froome is optimistic, let alone overturning the 30s deficit

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Uran hasn't done good ITT's since he left Quick Step.
He had 1 year especially at Quick Step were he did well in almost every ITT. But that time has past. I do not expect a miracle. Probably somewhere around 30th-40th place seems to be his maximum these days

 

[jsem94]

Maybe if Froome crashes or has a mechanical.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

Maybe if Froome crashes or has a mechanical.

Well, presumably because it's so close he'll feel unable to risk anything.

 

[johnymax]

Re:

Yes, Uran hasn't ridden a good TT for a while now, but he hasn't climbed anywhere near this well for a while either. In fact, I'd say these climbing performances are arguably the best of Uran's career. Definitely wouldn't surprise me if we see a return of Uran's exceptional TTing ability, especially with this being the last year of his contract.

But yeah, beating Froome is optimistic, let alone overturning the 30s deficit

I agree that these climbing performances are arguably his best ever, but his climbing has been fine for the last two seasons and his TT still sucked. Look at this year's results. In T-A he was 4th on the queen stage to Terminillo, then in the ITT he was 56th. In P-V he was 3rd on the queen stage to Eibar, then he was 33rd on a hilly ITT. In Romandie he was 5th on the queen stage to Leysin, then he was 34th on a hilly ITT the next day. If you add the poor performance from Dusseldorf where he was 95th, I'd be really really surprised if he somehow suddenly finds his ITT ability from 2014.

 

[The_Beach]

Re:

Yes, Uran hasn't ridden a good TT for a while now, but he hasn't climbed anywhere near this well for a while either. In fact, I'd say these climbing performances are arguably the best of Uran's career. Definitely wouldn't surprise me if we see a return of Uran's exceptional TTing ability, especially with this being the last year of his contract.

But yeah, beating Froome is optimistic, let alone overturning the 30s deficit

Urán has been climbing on a really high level since the autumn classics last year, and still hasn't produced anything close to a decent time trial.
In Tirreno he only lost time till Quintana and Thomas on Terminillo --> finished 56th and lost 47 seconds in a 10 km time trial.
In Basque Country he finished 3rd in the queen stage and lost more than 2 minutes in the time trial the day after, dropping from 2nd on GC to 9th.
In Romandie he was the 3rd or 4th strongest in the uphill finish to Leysin and still finished the time trial 34th.
So he has been climbing terrific all year, and still done some awful TT's. So I except him to do the worst time trial of any in the top ten, except maybe Bardet and Meintjes.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Yes, Uran hasn't ridden a good TT for a while now, but he hasn't climbed anywhere near this well for a while either. In fact, I'd say these climbing performances are arguably the best of Uran's career. Definitely wouldn't surprise me if we see a return of Uran's exceptional TTing ability, especially with this being the last year of his contract.

But yeah, beating Froome is optimistic, let alone overturning the 30s deficit

I agree that these climbing performances are arguably his best ever, but his climbing has been fine for the last two seasons and his TT still sucked. Look at this year's results. In T-A he was 4th on the queen stage to Terminillo, then in the ITT he was 56th. In P-V he was 3rd on the queen stage to Eibar, then he was 33rd on a hilly ITT. In Romandie he was 5th on the queen stage to Leysin, then he was 34th on a hilly ITT the next day. If you add the poor performance from Dusseldorf where he was 95th, I'd be really really surprised if he somehow suddenly finds his ITT ability from 2014.

You have triggered a realisation: if Uran had lost only 30 seconds rather than 1:03 on the Stage 1 ITT he'd be in yellow now.

 

[TMP402]

But you both equally present a compelling case grounded in evidence.

 

[slosada]

Re: Re:

Yes, Uran hasn't ridden a good TT for a while now, but he hasn't climbed anywhere near this well for a while either. In fact, I'd say these climbing performances are arguably the best of Uran's career. Definitely wouldn't surprise me if we see a return of Uran's exceptional TTing ability, especially with this being the last year of his contract.

But yeah, beating Froome is optimistic, let alone overturning the 30s deficit

Urán has been climbing on a really high level since the autumn classics last year, and still hasn't produced anything close to a decent time trial.
In Tirreno he only lost time till Quintana and Thomas on Terminillo --> finished 56th and lost 47 seconds in a 10 km time trial.
In Basque Country he finished 3rd in the queen stage and lost more than 2 minutes in the time trial the day after, dropping from 2nd on GC to 9th.
In Romandie he was the 3rd or 4th strongest in the uphill finish to Leysin and still finished the time trial 34th.
So he has been climbing terrific all year, and still done some awful TT's. So I except him to do the worst time trial of any in the top ten, except maybe Bardet and Meintjes.

Landa and Dan Martin are not well known for their TT prowess, either.

But it's too early to come with OP's question

 

[jmdirt]

No, RU needs to make a move, or two before the TT.

I wonder why his TT has been below what it used to be? Can it be the CDale TT bike? It can't be because he doesn't train for TTs anymore because GC guys know that they need at least OK TT results.

 

[KyoGrey]

Re: Poll: Will Urán be better than Froome in the Stage 20 IT

No.

The notion that Rigoberto Urán is a good TT rider (that is, consistently fast) is false. It's an artificial concept primarily built by some clueless Eurosport commentators and propagated by the media.

Urán is a regular TT rider that has had some good timetrials that happen with less frequency than his mediocre performances.

He can have a comparatively decent TT the last day because he is in strong form overall and is fighting the GC, as normally happens at the end of GT races. But the same would happen with for example a Alejandro Valverde, a Vincenzo Nibali or a Thibaut Pinot and nobody makes so much fuss about their TT habilities.

 

[Ikbengodniet]

I think if Froome runs up that 1.2 km climb his TT will still be better than Uran's nowadays.

 

[The_Beach]

Re: Re:

Yes, Uran hasn't ridden a good TT for a while now, but he hasn't climbed anywhere near this well for a while either. In fact, I'd say these climbing performances are arguably the best of Uran's career. Definitely wouldn't surprise me if we see a return of Uran's exceptional TTing ability, especially with this being the last year of his contract.

But yeah, beating Froome is optimistic, let alone overturning the 30s deficit

Urán has been climbing on a really high level since the autumn classics last year, and still hasn't produced anything close to a decent time trial.
In Tirreno he only lost time till Quintana and Thomas on Terminillo --> finished 56th and lost 47 seconds in a 10 km time trial.
In Basque Country he finished 3rd in the queen stage and lost more than 2 minutes in the time trial the day after, dropping from 2nd on GC to 9th.
In Romandie he was the 3rd or 4th strongest in the uphill finish to Leysin and still finished the time trial 34th.
So he has been climbing terrific all year, and still done some awful TT's. So I except him to do the worst time trial of any in the top ten, except maybe Bardet and Meintjes.

Landa and Dan Martin are not well known for their TT prowess, either.

But it's too early to come with OP's question

Forgot about Landa :redface: But Martin did a pretty good TT in Dauphiné (as did Yates), so if he can overcome his health issues I think he will do pretty well. But besides Froome I wouldn't bet money on any of the GC guys to finish inside top ten in the last time trial