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Poll: Will Urán be better than Froome in the Stage 20 ITT?

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Which one of Froome or Urán will finish first in the Stage 20 ITT in the 2017 Tour

  • Chris Froome

    Votes: 80 93.0%
  • Rigoberto Urán

    Votes: 6 7.0%

  • Total voters
    86
Jul 3, 2017
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TT past results is not always a good predictor for future results. The main reason is that in a multi stage tour the only people giving it 100% are the rather small number of GC contenders and an roughly equal number of TT specialist. So for example when looking at Uran results the only ones that matter are those whereby he has an incentive to go full eyeballs out - in his case over the past couple of season the results are not promising.

He has been high up in the GC in a number of stage races and then comes the TT that matters he regresses. So for this poll, barring an accident or mechanical from Froome I'd say the chances of him beating him by even 0.1 of a second is close to zero. Of the GC contenders within a couple of minutes of Froome in Stage 1 they were in this order behind him - Yates, Quintana, Martin, Bardet, Aru, Uran, Landa. Looking at the final TdF parcours for the TT its clear none of them (except Uran in years gone) have every performed competitively in a TT even when GC was on the line.

That said I think the likes of Yates and Martin will surprise and will be the best of the rest and it is their performances in the TT that could decide the final podium places.
 
Re:

jmdirt said:
No, RU needs to make a move, or two before the TT.

I wonder why his TT has been below what it used to be? Can it be the CDale TT bike? It can't be because he doesn't train for TTs anymore because GC guys know that they need at least OK TT results.

About a 10% chance to beat Froome.
About a 2% chance to beat Froome by 30 seconds.

Uran needs time in the alps.
 
You all know how happy I would be if Uran won TdF, but I'm certain that he will lose more than a minute to Froome on this ITT, maybe even over 2 minutes if Froome has a good day.

People don't realise how well Uran has been climbing in recent times. It's not like he is suddenly 2 levels higher than he used to be within last 2 years. He was very good in the 1st and 3rd week of last year's Giro, the only reason he wasn't fighting for podium was poor TT performances and the fact that he fell ill in 2nd week and lost 5 minutes on a medium-mountain stage. With all of those loses, he still managed to finish 7th overall (despite not gaining time from breakaways). He was beating Nibali, Valverde and Chavez on some of the MTFs in 1st and 3rd week. He almost won Lombardia last year and he was among 5 or so strongest guys on queen stages of multiple one-week WT stage races like Romandie 2016 and 17, Pais Vasco 2017 and Tirreno 2017.
It's not like he's suddenly gained some form he didn't have. Therefore, he will not suddenly gain an ITT form he didn't have, because all of his ITTs within last 1.5 years were poor or average at best. Maybe the motivation of fighting for a TdF podium will make him losing less time than he used to be losing recently, but he will certainly not be gaining time on Froome. Maybe he will gain something on Bardet who was TT-ing even worse than him in some of the recent races including Pais Vasco this year. But I think even Aru should beat him unless he cracks in the 3rd week.
 
Aug 16, 2013
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Re: Poll: Will Urán be better than Froome in the Stage 20 IT

Tonton said:
Uran needs at least a 30 second advantage.

Even more. I mean, if you're talk about Cannondale-Uran. Quick-Step-Uran maybe can hold on with a advantage of 30 seconds.