Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[peterfin]

I am sorry but this is just not true; it will always be 10 watts less you have to push for the same speed regarding of the gradient. Also tyres add RR not reduce
Again not true, aero matters even at 10% but weight becomes bigger factor than aero at about 7-8% ; this one is dependant on speed so aero will be bigger factor for better riders. Pog 23,5kmh and almost 27 when he went alone on PDB climb had for sure an aero factor

Power consumption due to roll resistance is a constant force multplied by the speed. So if at top speed on the flats you consume 10 watts less, it will be 5 watts at halve this speed or 3.33 watts at a third of this speed.

Power consumption due to drag is a force proportional to 2nd power of the speed multiplied by the speed (so third power in total). If for example the drag is 320 watts at 50 km/h, it will be only 40 watts at 25 km/h. It's true that Pogacar will go faster than others but we are comparing with comparable climb times from the EPO era so the speed will be similar. The improvement in drag coefficient will be small because we are not talking about a TT setup but a climb so even if there is an improvement of 10% we are talking about just a few watts.

 

[peterfin]

We can discuss this forever but the physics doesn't change. Technology (excluding hidden motors) cannot explain why Pogacar is equal or better than the EPO era. Even if you want to take that position regardless of the arguments above, you still have an issue: Why does it have such a huge impact during the last few years? The technological advances are gradual. It's not that cyclists were amateurs prior to 2020 and suddenly started to train properly. Or that the Pogacar of 2024 is using a bike that can explain his results compared to 2023?

 

[Shakes]

Some interesting points were raised here! Although a tad annoying for people stating it's weird that people believe someone is not clean while the inverse is also true: A lot of people believe it's clean. There is, as of now, no proof of either. We can just not state with 100% certainty that rider x is doping if not caught, nor can we state he is not doping. If nothing is tested it does not mean no one is doping after all (and we know from history that without testing there was a lot of doping).

Anyway, to summarize it for myself: there have been technological developments. In terms of climbing there might be improvements but due to the nature of climbing where most force is applied to overcome gravity those gains are marginal at best. They don't explain the large gains in recent years and especially not of this year.

Another improvement is 'carbs' cq. nutrition. Froome already had detailed food intake schedules with a lot of carbs and taking in a lot of carbs is not something of just the last four years. Even ignoring that, food (more availability of glycogen) should not by itself improve performance through a Tour. At best it should keep it closer to T0 (there should be some degradation in performance). It should not allow someone going from 6.5w/kg to 7w/kg. So nutrition can definitely be a cause of improvement, it should not cause such a massive improvement as we are witnessing.

Pogacar and his performance this year has just been ridiculous. I am afraid it will cause a lot of cyclists to try their hand at doping while also making the sport much less interesting for future cyclists. As it can lead to perception that you either need to dope or not compete. Which is an unhealthy choice to make we should not allow any future young cyclists to have to make. A recent relevant article in that sense: https://www.cyclingweekly.com/racin...and-unwittingly-became-a-doping-whistleblower

It's hurtful for a young generation if people just brush things off as 'everyone dopes so who cares'.

End of incoherent post. *

 

[Red Rick]

Food intake is the most hilarious explanation cause since the dawn of the post COVID era they would obliterate the sort of climbing times you would even see in MTTs and Unipuerto stages from before.

And in the 2010s, it's not like there was a 2 minute swing just from the MTF of a normal mountain stage versus unipuerto or MTT.

It's so obvious the general oxygen uptake went way up

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's so obvious the general oxygen uptake went way up

Evolutionary response to COVID, everything makes sense now.

 

[Gratemans]

Evolutionary response to COVID, everything makes sense now.

Which would, quite literally, make them mutants

 

[peterfin]

Watts2win is an interesting site to get statistical insights in performances over the years. I don't know how they compute their performance index but I assume that 100 is what they estimate to be the physical max limit. If you look at the top 25 performances yearly, they are typically 85 and less up to 2019. From 2020 up to 2023 we see them max out at 90. The best riders feature about 5 times in the index in a given year. 2024 is crazy. Vingegaard has a 100 performance and Pogacar 94, 105 and 111! Pogacar features 10x in the index (40% of all performances). Additionaly there 6 other UAE riders in the index including baby Torres, who is the 4th best rider in 2024.

 

[Red Rick]

So currently I'm wondering with how in the EPO days the blood manipulation was such they had very distinct super high peaks and then many riders were pretty uncompetitive outside of their targets. Now I'm thinking it's very obvious they're on something short acting based on many mid race performance leaps we've seen, and wondering if a lot of the increased fatigue resistance isn't just from doing base training at higher VO2 because they're hitting the secret sauce all year round thus getting higher base training load doing the same relative VO2 against a higher VO2 max.

 

[Nick2413]

So currently I'm wondering with how in the EPO days the blood manipulation was such they had very distinct super high peaks and then many riders were pretty uncompetitive outside of their targets. Now I'm thinking it's very obvious they're on something short acting based on many mid race performance leaps we've seen, and wondering if a lot of the increased fatigue resistance isn't just from doing base training at higher VO2 because they're hitting the secret sauce all year round thus getting higher base training load doing the same relative VO2 against a higher VO2 max.

Kind of surprising this isn’t talked about more, its funny that (tested) strength sports have been doing it that way forever but with cycling doping is seen as a peri-competition thing only.

 

[peterfin]

So currently I'm wondering with how in the EPO days the blood manipulation was such they had very distinct super high peaks and then many riders were pretty uncompetitive outside of their targets. Now I'm thinking it's very obvious they're on something short acting based on many mid race performance leaps we've seen, and wondering if a lot of the increased fatigue resistance isn't just from doing base training at higher VO2 because they're hitting the secret sauce all year round thus getting higher base training load doing the same relative VO2 against a higher VO2 max.

Interesting. It would explain why changes in Pogacar's training regime could enhance the effectiveness of a short acting substances.

 

[meat puppet]

But what would be both "short acting" and boost vo2max to raise the aerobic performance ceiling? It would have to increase stroke volume, max heart rate (or both), or blood parameters.

 

[Ripper]

Any new climbing records today?

 

[snipeheem]

Any new climbing records today?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1845103077356900653

View: https://x.com/faustocoppi60/status/1845103077356900653

 

[Ripper]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1845103077356900653

View: https://x.com/faustocoppi60/status/1845103077356900653

And of course it was not a full gas effort. He still had racing to do

 

[snipeheem]

Watts2win is an interesting site to get statistical insights in performances over the years. I don't know how they compute their performance index but I assume that 100 is what they estimate to be the physical max limit. If you look at the top 25 performances yearly, they are typically 85 and less up to 2019. From 2020 up to 2023 we see them max out at 90. The best riders feature about 5 times in the index in a given year. 2024 is crazy. Vingegaard has a 100 performance and Pogacar 94, 105 and 111! Pogacar features 10x in the index (40% of all performances). Additionaly there 6 other UAE riders in the index including baby Torres, who is the 4th best rider in 2024.

Colma di Sormano -Pogacar index 100.

 

[Sciatic]

So currently I'm wondering with how in the EPO days the blood manipulation was such they had very distinct super high peaks and then many riders were pretty uncompetitive outside of their targets. Now I'm thinking it's very obvious they're on something short acting based on many mid race performance leaps we've seen, and wondering if a lot of the increased fatigue resistance isn't just from doing base training at higher VO2 because they're hitting the secret sauce all year round thus getting higher base training load doing the same relative VO2 against a higher VO2 max.

Of our traditional PEDS, What would you consider to be “short acting”? EPO is not an immediate boost—takes about 48 hrs to start making new (additional) red blood cells and then a lag until red cells have increased enough to see a performance boost. Perhaps longer with microdosing.

 

[Netserk]

M1. MANIPULATION OF BLOOD AND BLOOD COMPONENTS

The following are prohibited:
M1.1. The Administration or reintroduction of any quantity of autologous, allogenic
(homologous) or heterologous blood, or red blood cell products of any origin into the
circulatory system except donation by Athletes of plasma or plasma components by
plasmapheresis performed in a registered collection center.
M1.2. Artificially enhancing the uptake, transport or delivery of oxygen.
Including, but not limited to:
Perfluorochemicals; efaproxiral (RSR13); voxelotor and modified haemoglobin
products, e.g. haemoglobin-based blood substitutes and microencapsulated
haemoglobin products, excluding supplemental oxygen by inhalation.

---

I think that's what it takes to gain >5 % power from one day to the next.

 

[peterfin]

Colma di Sormano -Pogacar index 100.

Detailed statistics: https://watts2win.eu/segment/1178

Remarkeable climb. There were a lot of PB's. Remco was close to his PB as well.

 

[peterfin]

When there's a lot of PBs it's usually an indicator circumstances were favorable and the race hadn't been crazy hard before hand.

Indeed. It was a perfect build-up by UAE for Pogacar's attack on the Sormano so also ideal conditions for others to set their 30 min climb records.

 

[Red Rick]

Indeed. It was a perfect build-up by UAE for Pogacar's attack on the Sormano so also ideal conditions for others to set their 30 min climb records.

I think it's also just their specific algorithm. It seems they put a lot of emphasis on the fatigue of the race day, and I'm not sure if that is just prior to the climbs start or if it takes into account the section after the climb as well, which would jus tnot make sense.

Here, where they count kJ/kg, it really compounds that it's all low altitude and the ~hour before Sormano is flatter than the first 3 hours.

 

[Froome]

Of our traditional PEDS, What would you consider to be “short acting”? EPO is not an immediate boost—takes about 48 hrs to start making new (additional) red blood cells and then a lag until red cells have increased enough to see a performance boost. Perhaps longer with microdosing.

I believe a lot in the marine worm.

UAE could had access to this, by buying with the money they have, to the only company in France who does that.

 

[Sciatic]

I believe a lot in the marine worm.

UAE could had access to this, by buying with the money they have, to the only company in France who does that.

For sure, according to the research, performance-wise it would be dramatic and fast-acting. But the French and German anti-doping authorities have already developed a test for it, though I doubt actual testing is happening yet.

 

[Contador99]

I think it's also just their specific algorithm. It seems they put a lot of emphasis on the fatigue of the race day, and I'm not sure if that is just prior to the climbs start or if it takes into account the section after the climb as well, which would jus tnot make sense.

Here, where they count kJ/kg, it really compounds that it's all low altitude and the ~hour before Sormano is flatter than the first 3 hours.

The algorithm only takes into account the part of the race covered before the climb. If you look at this stage (TDF Beille: https://watts2win.eu/course/2024/TDF/etape/15), the index correction is much smaller for Menté at the beginning of the stage (-6) than for Agnes (+3), even though both are at roughly the same altitude.