Pre Tour de France-thread

[Asero831]

I think Nibali and Bardet will lose 90 secs to Froome and Porte in stage 3

 

[Jspear]

No one can count on the cobbled stage to bring GC action. 2014 was special. The weather could be perfect and/or the small climbers just might ride smarter, follow the right wheels, ect.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

I just don't know what to predict with Froome. My head says look at how hard the Giro was, that HAS to set him back for the Tour. On the other hand, he is the best GC rider in the sport, so there is no way I can rule him out of a podium, or even winning again. I just don't know....

What if Tommy D comes too?? How does that impact things? Sunweb is a strong TTT team, so he has more TT kms to do damage with. He was done at the end of the Giro though, so I'm not sure he has it in him to mount any serious challenge for Podium.

The TT's will ruin Bardet again, but top 5 is pretty likely, he's consistent!

Nibs will be strong, I'm sure of that. It'll be a question of how he can limit loses in the hardest of Mountian stages to the very top climbers and pinch time here and there when he can.

Movistar is fascinating. My gut feeling is Landa will come out on top there. Valverde is amazing, but I don't see it for him in this race (in terms of GC). Quintana's star appears to be fading, after looking like he'd be the only threat to Froome a couple of years back. I have no expectations for him this time. If his new approach doesn't work, I wonder what he'll go back to next year?

Richie is a probably my favorite to win it this year. Of course...he has to make it through without a serious crash and that is going to be a 50/50 proposition. Without the crash last year, I believe he was the only one that could have made it difficult for Froome.

Dark Horse - Roglic. Showing all the signs of being a big GC contender.

2nd Dark Horse - Fuglsang. Needs things to go his way, but I think could play a role in this race.

the first 2/3 of your post, spot on IMO.

Ritchie? The dark horses? Meh. Not to say that Porte doesn't have quality for a podium, maybe more, but to me it will be the Ritchie watch...get a flat and lose 2 minutes on the cobbles, well you know. I don't believe in miracles, i.e. Froome, but I kind of believe in curses.

And again, I'll be proven wrong .

expect better from a mod in the PRR section

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I just don't know what to predict with Froome. My head says look at how hard the Giro was, that HAS to set him back for the Tour. On the other hand, he is the best GC rider in the sport, so there is no way I can rule him out of a podium, or even winning again. I just don't know....

What if Tommy D comes too?? How does that impact things? Sunweb is a strong TTT team, so he has more TT kms to do damage with. He was done at the end of the Giro though, so I'm not sure he has it in him to mount any serious challenge for Podium.

The TT's will ruin Bardet again, but top 5 is pretty likely, he's consistent!

Nibs will be strong, I'm sure of that. It'll be a question of how he can limit loses in the hardest of Mountian stages to the very top climbers and pinch time here and there when he can.

Movistar is fascinating. My gut feeling is Landa will come out on top there. Valverde is amazing, but I don't see it for him in this race (in terms of GC). Quintana's star appears to be fading, after looking like he'd be the only threat to Froome a couple of years back. I have no expectations for him this time. If his new approach doesn't work, I wonder what he'll go back to next year?

Richie is a probably my favorite to win it this year. Of course...he has to make it through without a serious crash and that is going to be a 50/50 proposition. Without the crash last year, I believe he was the only one that could have made it difficult for Froome.

Dark Horse - Roglic. Showing all the signs of being a big GC contender.

2nd Dark Horse - Fuglsang. Needs things to go his way, but I think could play a role in this race.

the first 2/3 of your post, spot on IMO.

Ritchie? The dark horses? Meh. Not to say that Porte doesn't have quality for a podium, maybe more, but to me it will be the Ritchie watch...get a flat and lose 2 minutes on the cobbles, well you know. I don't believe in miracles, i.e. Froome, but I kind of believe in curses.

And again, I'll be proven wrong .

expect better from a mod in the PRR section

Is it necessarily strange to not believe a rider will win his fourth consecutive GT and be the first to win the Giro Tour double since people began to care about it?

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

I just don't know what to predict with Froome. My head says look at how hard the Giro was, that HAS to set him back for the Tour. On the other hand, he is the best GC rider in the sport, so there is no way I can rule him out of a podium, or even winning again. I just don't know....

What if Tommy D comes too?? How does that impact things? Sunweb is a strong TTT team, so he has more TT kms to do damage with. He was done at the end of the Giro though, so I'm not sure he has it in him to mount any serious challenge for Podium.

The TT's will ruin Bardet again, but top 5 is pretty likely, he's consistent!

Nibs will be strong, I'm sure of that. It'll be a question of how he can limit loses in the hardest of Mountian stages to the very top climbers and pinch time here and there when he can.

Movistar is fascinating. My gut feeling is Landa will come out on top there. Valverde is amazing, but I don't see it for him in this race (in terms of GC). Quintana's star appears to be fading, after looking like he'd be the only threat to Froome a couple of years back. I have no expectations for him this time. If his new approach doesn't work, I wonder what he'll go back to next year?

Richie is a probably my favorite to win it this year. Of course...he has to make it through without a serious crash and that is going to be a 50/50 proposition. Without the crash last year, I believe he was the only one that could have made it difficult for Froome.

Dark Horse - Roglic. Showing all the signs of being a big GC contender.

2nd Dark Horse - Fuglsang. Needs things to go his way, but I think could play a role in this race.

the first 2/3 of your post, spot on IMO.

Ritchie? The dark horses? Meh. Not to say that Porte doesn't have quality for a podium, maybe more, but to me it will be the Ritchie watch...get a flat and lose 2 minutes on the cobbles, well you know. I don't believe in miracles, i.e. Froome, but I kind of believe in curses.

And again, I'll be proven wrong .

expect better from a mod in the PRR section

Totally agree....some are just so biter right now

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

I just don't know what to predict with Froome. My head says look at how hard the Giro was, that HAS to set him back for the Tour. On the other hand, he is the best GC rider in the sport, so there is no way I can rule him out of a podium, or even winning again. I just don't know....

What if Tommy D comes too?? How does that impact things? Sunweb is a strong TTT team, so he has more TT kms to do damage with. He was done at the end of the Giro though, so I'm not sure he has it in him to mount any serious challenge for Podium.

The TT's will ruin Bardet again, but top 5 is pretty likely, he's consistent!

Nibs will be strong, I'm sure of that. It'll be a question of how he can limit loses in the hardest of Mountian stages to the very top climbers and pinch time here and there when he can.

Movistar is fascinating. My gut feeling is Landa will come out on top there. Valverde is amazing, but I don't see it for him in this race (in terms of GC). Quintana's star appears to be fading, after looking like he'd be the only threat to Froome a couple of years back. I have no expectations for him this time. If his new approach doesn't work, I wonder what he'll go back to next year?

Richie is a probably my favorite to win it this year. Of course...he has to make it through without a serious crash and that is going to be a 50/50 proposition. Without the crash last year, I believe he was the only one that could have made it difficult for Froome.

Dark Horse - Roglic. Showing all the signs of being a big GC contender.

2nd Dark Horse - Fuglsang. Needs things to go his way, but I think could play a role in this race.

the first 2/3 of your post, spot on IMO.

Ritchie? The dark horses? Meh. Not to say that Porte doesn't have quality for a podium, maybe more, but to me it will be the Ritchie watch...get a flat and lose 2 minutes on the cobbles, well you know. I don't believe in miracles, i.e. Froome, but I kind of believe in curses.

And again, I'll be proven wrong .

expect better from a mod in the PRR section

Is it necessarily strange to not believe a rider will win his fourth consecutive GT and be the first to win the Giro Tour double since people began to care about it?

When are you suggesting that people didn’t care about doing the Giro Tour double? It’s been a mark of a dominant season for a long time.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

No doubt that I will cheer for Nibali or Bardet to win this. The former took full advantage of a cobbled stage in '14, he will be the smartest rider on the road. Romain has a question mark attached to him, the ITT where he can lose a ton of time. They are my chouchous.

Like Pozzo at Il Giro, I have a rider that I hope will fare well: Zakarin.

I hope that Tibopino rests and goes all-out at La Vuelta, and that GFC (or whatever it is now) gets a couple of wins, including Demare getting a win. Or two.

The continuing story of Nacer is a loser will entertain.

Movistar may be the biggest plot, managing egos, but so much talent. If they have three riders in the top-6 in Lourdes, with good tactics, bingo! Out of the three, the Basque is my favorite by not just one, but two miles.

Speaking about Lourdes, it's where miracles happen so the dark knight can't be discounted. I won't evaluate the chances of a rider who shouldn't have been at Il Giro, shouldn't be at the TdF, Sorry.

France is what it is with regards to geography, this TdF design isn't that bad. I hope we'll have fun and that cycling wins it.

Interesting.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

No one can count on the cobbled stage to bring GC action. 2014 was special. The weather could be perfect and/or the small climbers just might ride smarter, follow the right wheels, ect.

Generally cobbled races or stages have victims just by the nature of the course. Add some wind or rain and it's even worse. Little climbers don't tend to function well on such courses which is why they avoid them and complain about them when the route is announced and they don't tend to suddenly become Boonen or Gilbert or anything close. Even some team managers don't like cobbles in grand tours. They obviously know their riders pretty well. Maybe it won't be anything like 2014 but I still believe that some of the GC riders will take a hit.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

No one can count on the cobbled stage to bring GC action. 2014 was special. The weather could be perfect and/or the small climbers just might ride smarter, follow the right wheels, ect.

Generally cobbled races or stages have victims just by the nature of the course. Add some wind or rain and it's even worse. Little climbers don't tend to function well on such courses which is why they avoid them and complain about them when the route is announced and they don't tend to suddenly become Boonen or Gilbert or anything close. Even some team managers don't like cobbles in grand tours. They obviously know their riders pretty well. Maybe it won't be anything like 2014 but I still believe that some of the GC riders will take a hit.

Climbers (who are typically your GC guys) usually try to avoid cobbles at all costs. There are teams (Movistar this year being very vocal) that do not like cobbles in GTs, because they know their GC guys won't do well on them. Even with the cobbles in the Tour this year only a handful of GC guys even rode the cobbles during classics season. Of those only Valverde and Nibali actually tried to more than just finish the race without getting hurt. The nature of cobbles leads to crashes and punctures. A GC rider will have issues, because the odds are that at least one if not more will. Also Valverde and Nibali have proven they are the only GC guys willing to truly try to race the cobbles. I do believe at least Nibali will try to push the issue over the cobbles. This is stage that it is unlikely someone will actually win the Tour, however it is very likely that at least one guy will lose the Tour.

 

[Robert5091]

2014 was interesting because it was wet - the whole first week at the 2018 TdF needs some rain and wind or it could easily become ... zzzzzzzzzzzz.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

2014 was interesting because it was wet - the whole first week at the 2018 TdF needs some rain and wind or it could easily become ... zzzzzzzzzzzz.

Yep. There a few hills in the middle of the week, but otherwise it can become extremely boring.

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Re:

2014 was interesting because it was wet - the whole first week at the 2018 TdF needs some rain and wind or it could easily become ... zzzzzzzzzzzz.

Yep. There a few hills in the middle of the week, but otherwise it can become extremely boring.

It does play into the hands of riders who've done the Giro (eg Froome) to get into shape again/aim to be att 100% in weeks 2 & 3. The likes of Bardet or "The Three Amigos" at Movistar gaining minutes on Sky in the first week are unrealistic.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Fuglsang hasn't finished in the top 10 in the GC since 2013.
He's a real longshot for a top 10.
Forgot about Majka & Kelderman, they could be dark horses for the Top 5.

Dude, you're crazy to not include Fuglsang in a list of what? - 20-25 names?

First, he is the sole captain, of one of the biggest teams in cycling, showing up with a squad which (baring possibly Kangert being added from the Giro squad), has been prepared solely for supporting Fuglsang at the tour..... they have no other goals, except maybe letting Cort loose a time or two, if the finish suits him..... That's how much the team believes in Fuglsang.

Secondly, he was in 5th (after several big mountain stages) when he broke his wrist and back last year... and still completed 1,5 stage, including riding up 2 mountains with no hands, and catching up on the decent twice, before finally giving in, on the second day.

Third, last time the tour did cobbles for real, it was Fuglsang who broke apart the peloton for Nibali on the cobbles, and he rode with him to the end.

Fourth, if they add both Cataldo and Kangert to the team, as expected, it means they also ride a good TTT.

Fifth, he has been one of the best "GT captains in preparation", in the races he has done all spring and early summer.... usually being part of the finals and usually placing top 5 overall.

That Fuglsang should not be in your top 25, is honestly a little strange

 

[Valv.Piti]

Its his last chance to do something in the Tour, I feel, and the cobbles are very good for him. He needs to gain time there in order to get a top-5 as there are many riders who climbs better than him in this year's Tour. The level will be extremely high and that probably means that, without bad luck, he will find himself around 8th-10th.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

Its his last chance to do something in the Tour, I feel, and the cobbles are very good for him. He needs to gain time there in order to get a top-5 as there are many riders who climbs better than him in this year's Tour. The level will be extremely high and that probably means that, without bad luck, he will find himself around 8th-10th.

Why would it be his last chance?

He's the same age af Froome, Nibali and Porte, for instance... and nobody is saying this is their last year to perform at the tour?

I disagree on the climbing, he has improved significantly, the last 2 years.

He always starts a little slow, because he knows not to follow the accelerations (he is like Dumoulin like that) - but almost every mountain, this year and last year, you have seen him come back to the leaders, and often try to go clear towards the end, when people start to show wear.

I see Froome, Landa and Quintana as better climbers.

But Fuglsang is on par with Nibs, Bardet, Uran, Porte and Dumoulin (if in shape), on the tier just below.

 

[mrhender]

I would be surprised if he ends up in top5.
He may have a small advantage on the cobbles, but his rather poor TT alone is probably outweighing that.
As for climbing, i see him just outside top10.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Its his last chance to do something in the Tour, I feel, and the cobbles are very good for him. He needs to gain time there in order to get a top-5 as there are many riders who climbs better than him in this year's Tour. The level will be extremely high and that probably means that, without bad luck, he will find himself around 8th-10th.

Why would it be his last chance?

He's the same age af Froome and Porte, for instance... and nobody is saying this is their last year to perform at the tour?

I guess he means it's his last time to show his team that a guy who has one top 10 in 11 Grand Tours should continue to be a captain.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

Its his last chance to do something in the Tour, I feel, and the cobbles are very good for him. He needs to gain time there in order to get a top-5 as there are many riders who climbs better than him in this year's Tour. The level will be extremely high and that probably means that, without bad luck, he will find himself around 8th-10th.

Why would it be his last chance?

He's the same age af Froome and Porte, for instance... and nobody is saying this is their last year to perform at the tour?

I guess he means it's his last time to show his team that a guy who has one top 10 in 11 Grand Tours should continue to be a captain.

He's been a captain in the tour twice dude - when he got 7th in 2013, in his first go, and last year when he crashed out in 5th - every other time, he has ridden as a domestique for the captain

- sorry, not trying to make this "the Fuglsang thread" - But I truly believe he gets overlooked far too much, especially considering the way he has ridden the past year.

 

[Valv.Piti]

He has not been a real domestique in 2014 and 2015, he simply didn't have the legs in 2015 (after being appointed leadership after Nibali failed) and he was a bit unlucky in 2014. Same story in 2016 Giro, no legs in the mountains. Not really your typical domestique - he pretty much rode his own race.

Fuglsang needs to show up this time. A guy who mostly disappoints and is 33 years old desperately needs this Tour to go well. And please stop saying he is in the same tier as Nibali, Porte and Bardet, thats just silly patriotism/nationalism.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Its his last chance to do something in the Tour, I feel, and the cobbles are very good for him. He needs to gain time there in order to get a top-5 as there are many riders who climbs better than him in this year's Tour. The level will be extremely high and that probably means that, without bad luck, he will find himself around 8th-10th.

Why would it be his last chance?

He's the same age af Froome, Nibali and Porte, for instance... and nobody is saying this is their last year to perform at the tour?

I disagree on the climbing, he has improved significantly, the last 2 years.

He always starts a little slow, because he knows not to follow the accelerations (he is like Dumoulin like that) - but almost every mountain, this year and last year, you have seen him come back to the leaders, and often try to go clear towards the end, when people start to show wear.

I see Froome, Landa and Quintana as better climbers.

But Fuglsang is on par with Nibs, Bardet, Uran, Porte and Dumoulin (if in shape), on the tier just below.

I actually agree with big parts of this post but c'mon, Fuglsang on par with Nibali and Bardet? That's nonsense

 

[Tim Booth]

Re: Re:

Its his last chance to do something in the Tour, I feel, and the cobbles are very good for him. He needs to gain time there in order to get a top-5 as there are many riders who climbs better than him in this year's Tour. The level will be extremely high and that probably means that, without bad luck, he will find himself around 8th-10th.

Why would it be his last chance?

He's the same age af Froome and Porte, for instance... and nobody is saying this is their last year to perform at the tour?

I guess he means it's his last time to show his team that a guy who has one top 10 in 11 Grand Tours should continue to be a captain.

Nibali, Porte, Fuglsang and Froome will all be aged 33 at this years tour, so it could well be the last chance for any of them to win. After all, very few riders in TdF history have been 33, never mind 34.

 

[deValtos]

Apparently there will be a starting grid on the short climbing stage where people start in order of GC.

http://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/36...-tour-de-france-kent-nieuwe-startformule.html

Seems there will be gaps between the groups as the article says you can either sprint at the start or wait for your team ...

This sounds really gimmicky. The short stage was great last year, this is probably the one stage that didn't need more spicing up no? :Neutral:

 

[JosephK]

Re:

The Dark Knight will return.
His destiny is to give us, his fans, some entertainment and fun and drive his haters mad and crazy.

Agreed. The 2018 TDF is over. Done and dusted. 5 TDFs for You Know Who. :lol:

 

[Gigs_98]

Apparently there will be a starting grid on the short climbing stage where people start in order of GC.

http://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/36...-tour-de-france-kent-nieuwe-startformule.html

Seems there will be gaps between the groups as the article says you can either sprint at the start or wait for your team ...

This sounds really gimmicky. The short stage was great last year, this is probably the one stage that didn't need more spicing up no? :Neutral:

What the actual f*ck

 

[Robert5091]

Apparently there will be a starting grid on the short climbing stage where people start in order of GC.

http://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/36...-tour-de-france-kent-nieuwe-startformule.html

Seems there will be gaps between the groups as the article says you can either sprint at the start or wait for your team ...

This sounds really gimmicky. The short stage was great last year, this is probably the one stage that didn't need more spicing up no? :Neutral:

Will they have to run to their bikes too a la Le Mans?