Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

De jongh already went to take a look at the stage and de jongh used to be one of the best in echelons back in his day. He knows exactly when they've to be there and when they could do something. Addin you've guys like bennati and sagan

And Lotto Jumbo will probably want to cooperate, and Etixx as wel.

And every Dutch newspaper will write about Lotto Jumbo turning the Tour upside down, just like in 2013.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Strange squad they have anyway, 5 guys for the flat, and then 4 climbers/gc riders who are somewhere between the 10th and 25th strongest climbers in the race. But none of them are really top 10 in pure ability. They have to be lucky that others will crash out

 

[Tonton]

No way (baring a crash) that Valverde doesn't make the top-10. It's a course for him. IMO, a dangerous guy for a top-5. Out of the Big 4, one or two won't make the top 5, either DNF (more likely) or a a couple of bad stages, crash, puncture with 5K left, bordure, a bad day...I think the guess is who is (are) the guy(s). My bet would be Bertie, then Dawg/Quintana. One breakaway rider may hang on to remain in the top 5. That's why IMO the French guys have to take chances, or they'll end up with a 5-10 finish.

My final predictions:
1. Nibali
2. Froome
3. Quintana
4. Pinot
5. Valverde

 

[Miburo]

Let's be real, saxo made that echelon stage in 2013 truly awesome. It was ok before saxo went but when froome was getting blown up. At that moment it truly became an awesome stage.

And no worries DT, for sure guys will crash out. Kinda sad they aim for a top 10, should go for stages.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Let's be real, saxo made that echelon stage in 2013 truly awesome. It was ok before saxo went but when froome was getting blown up. At that moment it truly became an awesome stage.

Indeed, and it became ever more embarrassing/pathetic when months later, AD did a reconstruction of "the day Belkin turned the Tour upside down". The entire article mentioned Saxo-Tinkoff just once, very briefly ("Saxo-Tinkoff joined", or something like that)

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re: Re:

I think like most rational people this is not a TDF for Contador but I cant see him giving up in week 1, maybe week 3? However I think he will finish the race but he will know by week 3 he can no longer win and may ease off 10%. As for the betfair chap, id rather have a straight odds for not being in top 10, will ask my friend in betfred today and let you know, failing that I know Mr Cycling man on here would probably love to have a man to man punt with me that Valverde makes/doesnt make Top 10, any crashes that result in retirement bets off is only fair?

If Valverde doesn't make the top 10, crashing out would be the most probable reason for that. Yet you are willing to do an even odds wager excluding that scenario from making you win the bet? If there was a convenient way to bet real money with strangers on the internet, I'd take out a loan for maximum leverage.

But you deserve credit for wanting to put your money where your mouth is, unlike many that profess to be confident in their forecasts.

yeah, i don't see him finishing outside the top 10 without a crash either. he has finished 13 Grand tours, 12 in the top 10, 10 in the top 5.

Serious Sam - As he has finished 13 GTs and 12 in the top 10, a bookie should give odds ( crashes bets off ) of at least 8-1 on Valverde not being in Top 10 and 1-3 on for being in Top 10. I would gladly whittle my odds down to 2-1 and raise the 1-3 up to evens for a fun bet between fellow lovers of cycling and the TDF. Not sure we are allowed to on here though?! In the face of the historic facts it would seem I have lost any marbles I had remaining but hey ho I'll give it a go, mind you I wouldnt accept more than a set amount against me!! Off to see my mate manager at 5pm in the shop so will know then lol

No joy from my mate at Betfred, they wouldnt do the bet, they said they will do some head to heads but thats not the same! Interestingly for all the Valverde fans, my bookie manager said we have had no end of money locally and nationally for Valverde, his price has lowered from 100-1 to 33-1, I said tut! give me their names I wanna have a bet with them! He also said nationally they have in the last week had no end of money for Purito, go figure! Purito to win the TDF I ask you!!!!! The sun has gone to peoples heads!

 

[concorde]

1. Froome
2. Pinot
3. Contador
4. Quintana
5. Nibali

Also the fire is ignited in the french cycling fans again with the second place for Pinot.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

No joy from my mate at Betfred, they wouldnt do the bet, they said they will do some head to heads but thats not the same! Interestingly for all the Valverde fans, my bookie manager said we have had no end of money locally and nationally for Valverde, his price has lowered from 100-1 to 33-1, I said tut! give me their names I wanna have a bet with them! He also said nationally they have in the last week had no end of money for Purito, go figure! Purito to win the TDF I ask you!!!!! The sun has gone to peoples heads!

just look on bet365, quite known betting company, they have like 30 riders in category placement in top 10 ofc including Valverde, actually there is 1,6:1 he will finish inside top 10
like serious sam said, I also would love to make some real money bet with unknown people on internet
give me a way how to do it and I am in

 

[Mr.White]

I'm in too... And not just for Valverde, but also for Purito,. in fact I predict Purito top 5

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re: Re:

No joy from my mate at Betfred, they wouldnt do the bet, they said they will do some head to heads but thats not the same! Interestingly for all the Valverde fans, my bookie manager said we have had no end of money locally and nationally for Valverde, his price has lowered from 100-1 to 33-1, I said tut! give me their names I wanna have a bet with them! He also said nationally they have in the last week had no end of money for Purito, go figure! Purito to win the TDF I ask you!!!!! The sun has gone to peoples heads!

just look on bet365, quite known betting company, they have like 30 riders in category placement in top 10 ofc including Valverde, actually there is 1,6:1 he will finish inside top 10
like serious sam said, I also would love to make some real money bet with unknown people on internet
give me a way how to do it and I am in

Bassano - Ive seen that on other bookies too but that is a bet to bet a rider gets in the Top 10, I want to bet Valverde doesnt make Top 10. The best value bet of the TDF is the KOM as its wide open you can even get odds of 40-1 on last years winner, although Majka although we can guess why he is that high but it just shows you. As for having a friendly punt with other cycling fans and strangers it is possible. You make the bet and then have to pay direct into bank accounts afterwards but its all about trusting strangers. I do it with fantasy football. But then thats different as its a competition not different bets.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Bassano - Ive seen that on other bookies too but that is a bet to bet a rider gets in the Top 10, I want to bet Valverde doesnt make Top 10. The best value bet of the TDF is the KOM as its wide open you can even get odds of 40-1 on last years winner, although Majka although we can guess why he is that high but it just shows you. As for having a friendly punt with other cycling fans and strangers it is possible. You make the bet and then have to pay direct into bank accounts afterwards but its all about trusting strangers. I do it with fantasy football. But then thats different as its a competition not different bets.

If odd to top 10 is 1.6, odd againist would be like 2.2 (in bet365)
I am willing to put 10 euro (or pounds) in valverde finish in top 10, if you will do the same, we can arrange deal like: if you will be right, I will send you 22 euro, if I will be right, you will send me 16, what´s about that?
10 euro is quite ballanced amount, I do not want to do bloody race from tour
let me know

mr White: if you are able to arrange bet with someone else, go ahead it would be nice but also believe in Purito

 

[46&twoWheels]

I'm wondering if there's one rider outside of the big 4 who's capable of finishing ahead of one of the big four..
Froome,Contador and Quintana in top form are unbeatable, Nibali must be in the same shape as last year, otherwise he can even be dropped by Pinot and Van Garderen because he is not a natural climber which allows him to have a good performance even when he's not fit.

Bardet and Majka for the polka dot jersey. They have the climbing ability and the typical drive of two young riders, unless they will be worn out from helping their captains

I don't even know who will be the captain: Bardet or Peraud

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re: Re:

Bassano - Ive seen that on other bookies too but that is a bet to bet a rider gets in the Top 10, I want to bet Valverde doesnt make Top 10. The best value bet of the TDF is the KOM as its wide open you can even get odds of 40-1 on last years winner, although Majka although we can guess why he is that high but it just shows you. As for having a friendly punt with other cycling fans and strangers it is possible. You make the bet and then have to pay direct into bank accounts afterwards but its all about trusting strangers. I do it with fantasy football. But then thats different as its a competition not different bets.

If odd to top 10 is 1.6, odd againist would be like 2.2 (in bet365)
I am willing to put 10 euro (or pounds) in valverde finish in top 10, if you will do the same, we can arrange deal like: if you will be right, I will send you 22 euro, if I will be right, you will send me 16, what´s about that?
10 euro is quite ballanced amount, I do not want to do bloody race from tour
let me know

mr White: if you are able to arrange bet with someone else, go ahead it would be nice but also believe in Purito

Bassano - I will accept that bet. Valverde in top 10 I give you 16 euros and if Valverde not in top 10 you give me 22 euros. Any crashes or sickness bet is off only fair for you. ok? I hope we can trust each other, I know for a fact i will stand by my bet and honour you have my word. Bit of fun cool

 

[cineteq]

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Van Garderen
4. Contador
5. Froome

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Bassano - I will accept that bet. Valverde in top 10 I give you 16 euros and if Valverde not in top 10 you give me 22 euros. Any crashes or sickness bet is off only fair for you. ok? I hope we can trust each other, I know for a fact i will stand by my bet and honour you have my word. Bit of fun cool

OK, my word to that, I trust you, no problem for me I have my honour
we have a deal
thanks for it

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Bassano - I will accept that bet. Valverde in top 10 I give you 16 euros and if Valverde not in top 10 you give me 22 euros. Any crashes or sickness bet is off only fair for you. ok? I hope we can trust each other, I know for a fact i will stand by my bet and honour you have my word. Bit of fun cool

OK, my word to that, I trust you, no problem for me I have my honour
we have a deal
thanks for it

Perhaps you should make clear what "Any crashes or sickness bet is off" means. Does it only count if he gets sick or crashes before the Tour and hence doesn't participate? Or also during the Tour? The last one makes little sense but if that's what you mean, then how severe does his crash or illness have to be for the bet to be void?

 

[perico]

Re: Re:

I doubt very much Nibali, Contador, Froome and Quintana will end up 1-4 (whatever order).

Of course it will be a big surprise if is like that, but of course they are at the begining the main favourites.

The last time the tour was this top heavy with 4 previous winners supposed to compete for the win (technically Quintana hasn't won the tour of course) was in 1989 with Fignon, LeMond, Roche, and Delgado. Roche dropped out early but the other three were head and shoulders above everyone else and took the podium.

 

[blackmamba]

1. Contador
2. Nibali
3. Quintana
4. Pinot
5. Valverde / TVG

 

[Anderis]

Since I know more about who is riding the Tour now, I'm putting a new top5:
1. Hesjedal
2. Talansky
3. Dan Martin
4. Koren
5. Haas

 

[Singer01]

Re:

I'm wondering if there's one rider outside of the big 4 who's capable of finishing ahead of one of the big four..
Froome,Contador and Quintana in top form are unbeatable, Nibali must be in the same shape as last year, otherwise he can even be dropped by Pinot and Van Garderen because he is not a natural climber which allows him to have a good performance even when he's not fit.

Bardet and Majka for the polka dot jersey. They have the climbing ability and the typical drive of two young riders, unless they will be worn out from helping their captains

I don't even know who will be the captain: Bardet or Peraud

Nibali is at least as much of a natural climber as TJ. he danced away from TJ on every mountain stage last year with no problems (though i accept TJ looked a much different beast recently).

 

[FCKAC]

Re:

I'm wondering if there's one rider outside of the big 4 who's capable of finishing ahead of one of the big four..
Froome,Contador and Quintana in top form are unbeatable, Nibali must be in the same shape as last year, otherwise he can even be dropped by Pinot and Van Garderen because he is not a natural climber which allows him to have a good performance even when he's not fit.

Bardet and Majka for the polka dot jersey. They have the climbing ability and the typical drive of two young riders, unless they will be worn out from helping their captains

I don't even know who will be the captain: Bardet or Peraud

I can't believe some people still saying this even in this day of age.

 

[SeriousSam]

The natural climber narrative is just nonsense. What actually matters is how quick you can ride up those mountains. Nibali is obviously a better climber than Teejay and Pinot. Everyone can get dropped by inferior climbers if the form isn't there.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Re:

I'm wondering if there's one rider outside of the big 4 who's capable of finishing ahead of one of the big four..
Froome,Contador and Quintana in top form are unbeatable, Nibali must be in the same shape as last year, otherwise he can even be dropped by Pinot and Van Garderen because he is not a natural climber which allows him to have a good performance even when he's not fit.

Bardet and Majka for the polka dot jersey. They have the climbing ability and the typical drive of two young riders, unless they will be worn out from helping their captains

I don't even know who will be the captain: Bardet or Peraud

They will both be captains. Protected as long as they are in contention.

 

[Ricksterh1]

Since I know more about who is riding the Tour now, I'm putting a new top5:
1. Hesjedal
2. Talansky
3. Dan Martin
4. Koren
5. Haas

HA! HA!! Too funny!!

 

[tritas]

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Nibali
4. Rodriguez
5. van Garderen
(Quintana out, Valverde 6th)