PREDICTION 2020

[BlueRoads]

Do you think Alaphilippe considers changing his surname since you are pressing so hard, Semtex?

Thanks a lot for your work!!

 

[Jspear]

I’m not sure if it’s okay to join at this point. If not no problem. Just in case.

Strade Bianche_winner: Wout van Aert
Milano-Sanremo_winner: Philippe Gilbert
II Lombardia_winner: Vincenzo Nibali
Tour de France_1. place: Egan Bernal
Tour de France_2. place: Nairo Quintana
Tour de France_3. place: Primoz Roglic
Tour de France_green jersey: Peter Sagan
Tour de France_white jersey: Egan Bernal
Tour de France_dot jersey: Egan Bernal
WCITT MEN ELITE_winner: Rohan Dennis
WCRR WOMEN ELITE_winner: Annemiek van Vleuten
WCRR MEN ELITE_winner: Vincenzo Nibali
La Flèche Wallonne_winner: Julian Alaphilipe
Liège-Bastog ne-Liège: Maximilian Schachmann
Amstel Gold Race_winner: Mathieu van der Poel
Gent-Wevelgem in Flanders Fields: Jasper Stuyven
Ronde van Vlaanderen_winner: Oliver Naesen
Giro d'Italia_1. place: Vincenzo Nibali
Giro d'Italia_2. place: Richard Carapaz
Giro d'Italia_3. place: Simon Yates
Giro d'Italia_cyclamen jersey: Peter Sagan
Paris-Roubaix_winner: Sep Vanmarcke
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_1. place: Emanuel Buchmann
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_2. place: Alejandro Valverde
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_3. place: David Gaudu
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_green jersey: Alejandro Valverde

 

[SHAD0W93]

Strade Bianche_winner: van der poel
Milano-Sanremo_winner: gilbert
II Lombardia_winner: nibali
Tour de France_1. Place: pinot
Tour de France_2. Place: bernal
Tour de France_3. Place: roglic
Tour de France_green jersey: sagan
Tour de France_white jersey: bernal
Tour de France_dot jersey: barguil
WCITT MEN ELITE_winner: dennis
WCRR WOMEN ELITE_winner: van vleuten
WCRR MEN ELITE_winner: alaphilippe
Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner: Kreuziger
La Flèche Wallonne_winner: alaphilippe
Amstel Gold Race_winner: valverde
Gent-Wevelgem: sagan
Ronde van Vlaanderen_winner: gva
Giro d'Italia_1. Place: carapaz
Giro d'Italia_2. Place: nibali
Giro d'Italia_3. Place: yates. s
Giro d'Italia_cyclamen jersey: sagan
Paris-Roubaix_winner: gva
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_1. Place: nibali
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_2. Place: bardet
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_3. Place: Valverde
La Vuelta ciclista a green jersey: Valverde

 

[Merckx index]

I’m big on crowd sourcing, so I decided to tally up the votes. I started with all the races, but my poor old brain couldn’t handle that, so I cut It down to monuments, WC, and GTs. Still too much, so I finally settled on GTs. There have been 27 posts, beginning with Koronin in early July. This is the current tally:

T1: Bernal (9), Roglic (8), Quintana (4), Pinot (3), Thomas (2), Froome
T2: Bernal (12), Roglic (9), Quintana (3), Pinot (3)
T3: Quintana (6), Pinot (6), Froome (3), Pogacar (3), Roglic (4), Buchmann (2), Landa (2), Bernal

G1: Nibali (12), Yates (7), Carapaz (6), Evenepoel (2)
G2: Nibali (7), Fuglsang (6), Carapaz (7), Yates (5), Majka, Bardet
G3: Evenepoel (7), Buchmann (4), Kruj (4), Yates (5), Carapaz (2), Fuglsang (2), Nibali, DePlus, Soler

V1: Pinot (11), Kruijswijk (3), Mas (2), Froome (2), Quintana (2), Buchmann (2), Valverde, Bernal, Pogacar, Sosa, Nibali
V2: Valverde (7), Buchmann (5), Landa (4), Lopez (2), Dumoulin, Mas, Uran, Mollema, Kruijswijk, Froome, Pinot, Pogacar, Bardet
V3: Kruijswijk (6), Valverde (5), Lopez (3), Pinot (3), Zakarain (2), Buchmann (2), Quintana, Sosa, Mas, Izaguirre, Nibali, Gaudu

Some comments:

• Bernal and Roglic are the heavy favorites to win and finish second in the Tour, in either order, with Quintana and Pinot most likely to round out the final podium
• The Giro is a three way race, according to our posters. Most of them think it will be won by either Nibs (most likely), Yates or Carapaz, with all three likely on the final podium. Remco is the best of the rest.
• The Vuelta, as it is in an ordinary year, and even more so this year, is the most wide-open of the GTs, as there is uncertainty as to who will be riding in it. Pinot is a strong favorite to win, but many other riders have been given a chance.
• Biggest snub: Dumoulin. He’s won a Giro, and finished second in another and in the TDF. Yet only one poster picks him even to podium, and only in the Vuelta. I suppose that reflects the heavy competition in the Tour, which doesn’t favor his elite TT ability, but I’m still surprised. Surely if he doesn't do well in the Tour, or even if he does, he will ride in the Vuelta, and would be very competitive there. Is he not 100% healthy or something?

 

[Jspear]

Great post. In my mind, I feel like this “group” prediction will be very close to what happens. Thanks for compiling this!

 

[bob.a.feet]

I’m big on crowd sourcing, so I decided to tally up the votes. I started with all the races, but my poor old brain couldn’t handle that, so I cut It down to monuments, WC, and GTs. Still too much, so I finally settled on GTs. There have been 27 posts, beginning with Koronin in early July. This is the current tally:

T1: Bernal (9), Roglic (8), Quintana (4), Pinot (3), Thomas (2), Froome
T2: Bernal (12), Roglic (9), Quintana (3), Pinot (3)
T3: Quintana (6), Pinot (6), Froome (3), Pogacar (3), Roglic (4), Buchmann (2), Landa (2), Bernal

G1: Nibali (12), Yates (7), Carapaz (6), Evenepoel (2)
G2: Nibali (7), Fuglsang (6), Carapaz (7), Yates (5), Majka, Bardet
G3: Evenepoel (7), Buchmann (4), Kruj (4), Yates (5), Carapaz (2), Fuglsang (2), Nibali, DePlus, Soler

V1: Pinot (11), Kruijswijk (3), Mas (2), Froome (2), Quintana (2), Buchmann (2), Valverde, Bernal, Pogacar, Sosa, Nibali
V2: Valverde (7), Buchmann (5), Landa (4), Lopez (2), Dumoulin, Mas, Uran, Mollema, Kruijswijk, Froome, Pinot, Pogacar, Bardet
V3: Kruijswijk (6), Valverde (5), Lopez (3), Pinot (3), Zakarain (2), Buchmann (2), Quintana, Sosa, Mas, Izaguirre, Nibali, Gaudu

Some comments:

• Bernal and Roglic are the heavy favorites to win and finish second in the Tour, in either order, with Quintana and Pinot most likely to round out the final podium
• The Giro is a three way race, according to our posters. Most of them think it will be won by either Nibs (most likely), Yates or Carapaz, with all three likely on the final podium. Remco is the best of the rest.
• The Vuelta, as it is in an ordinary year, and even more so this year, is the most wide-open of the GTs, as there is uncertainty as to who will be riding in it. Pinot is a strong favorite to win, but many other riders have been given a chance.
• Biggest snub: Dumoulin. He’s won a Giro, and finished second in another and in the TDF. Yet only one poster picks him even to podium, and only in the Vuelta. I suppose that reflects the heavy competition in the Tour, which doesn’t favor his elite TT ability, but I’m still surprised. Surely if he doesn't do well in the Tour, or even if he does, he will ride in the Vuelta, and would be very competitive there. Is he not 100% healthy or something?

If Dumoulin didn't crash last year, he would have been one of the biggest favourites for last year's Tour. But he did crash and now, like Froome, there's an uncertainty that surrounds him - although he is 5 years younger than Froome. In 2018 his level was incredible, but since then guys like Roglic, Bernal and Pinot have raised their level and you wonder if he has perhaps dropped his. Still, one of the world's best riders for the last 5 or so years and with Roglic and Kruijswijk Jumbo will be difficult to stop.

Oh, and at 29 he is younger than Roglic, Froome, Thomas, Pinot, Quintana, Kruijswijk, Landa - all the major favourites bar Bernal and Buchmann. This should be a fun Tour.

 

[Hihope]

As a newbie poster but Long time Reader I would also appreciate to join the game if still open.

Strade Bianche_winner: Alaphilippe
Milano-Sanremo_winner: Philippe Gilbert
II Lombardia_winner: Pinot
Tour de France_1. place: Nairo Quintana
Tour de France_2. place: Geraint Thomas
Tour de France_3. place: Pinot
Tour de France_green jersey: Peter Sagan
Tour de France_white jersey: Egan Bernal
Tour de France_dot jersey: Pogacar
WCITT MEN ELITE_winner: Rohan Dennis
WCRR WOMEN ELITE_winner: Annemiek van Vleuten
WCRR MEN ELITE_winner: Fuglsang
La Flèche Wallonne_winner: Julian Alaphilipe
Liège-Bastog ne-Liège: Pogacar
Amstel Gold Race_winner: Mathieu van der Poel
Gent-Wevelgem in Flanders Fields: Kristoff
Ronde van Vlaanderen_winner: Wout Van Aert
Giro d'Italia_1. place: Remco Evenepoel
Giro d'Italia_2. place: Richard Carapaz
Giro d'Italia_3. place: Vincenzo Nibali
Giro d'Italia_cyclamen jersey: Peter Sagan
Paris-Roubaix_winner: Wout Van Aert
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_1. place: Tom Dumoulin
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_2. place: Pinot
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_3. place: Alejandro Valverde
La Vuelta ciclista a Espana_green jersey: Alejandro Valverde

 

[Merckx index]

Includes Hihope (Shadow did not make a choice for LBL):

MSR: Sagan (12), Gilbert (6), Ewan (4), VdP (3), Bennett, Naesen, Matthews
TdFl: VdP (13), Van Aert (8), GVA (4), Naesen (2), Sagan
PR: van Aert (9), Pedersen (5), van Marcke (3), Stybar (3), VdP (2), Politt (2), GVA (2), Sagan, Aerts
LBL: Alaphilippe (7), Valverde (5), Roglic (3), Higuita (3), Pogacar (2), Bardet, Woods, Poels, Formolo, Kwiatkowski, Schachmann, Yates
Lombardia: Nibali (12), Evenepoel (3), Alaphilippe (2), Pogacar (2), Schachmann (2), Pinot (2), Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Roglic, Bernal, Fuglsang, Poels

WCTT: Dennis (24), Evenepoel (4)
WCRR: Nibali (8), Valverde (3), Bernal (3), Alaphilippe (4), Fuglsang (3), Pinot (2), Woods (2), Schachmann, Teuns, Bardet

Dennis is about as close to a sure thing as it gets in the WCTT. He was clearly stronger than Remco last year, but how much has the latter matured? We shall see.

LBL appears to be the most wide open of the monuments.

 

[RedheadDane]

I would be surprised if Pinot wins Lombardia, considering that he's not actually riding it, he's riding Dauphine instead.
Sure, he's listed on PCS as doing both, but that's gonna be somewhat complicated...

 

[Merckx index]

I would be surprised if Pinot wins Lombardia, considering that he's not actually riding it, he's riding Dauphine instead.
Sure, he's listed on PCS as doing both, but that's gonna be somewhat complicated...

Yeah, I saw several posts pointing out that so-and-so wouldn't actually be riding in a race that some poster had him winning, but I thought it was easier just to tabulate everything that was actually posted. People can make corrections from the list. After all, at this point, we aren't even sure which of these races will actually be held.

 

[RedheadDane]

Yeah, I saw several posts pointing out that so-and-so wouldn't actually be riding in a race that some poster had him winning, but I thought it was easier just to tabulate everything that was actually posted. People can make corrections from the list. I imagine that several or more riders predicted to place in the Vuelta won't be there.

Yeah, makes sense that people think he's gonna ride. Same with the people predicting Sagan for PR... it's a weird year!
Meanwhile, I'm just assuming that the "Yates" listed for L-B-L is Adam.

 

[Hihope]

Tanks for the info RedheadDane about Pinot not riding Lombardia though PCS had him on the start list. In this case I would like to use Evenepoel as substitute.

 

[BlueRoads]

Includes Hihope (Shadow did not make a choice for LBL):

MSR: Sagan (12), Gilbert (6), Ewan (4), VdP (3), Bennett, Naesen, Matthews
TdFl: VdP (13), Van Aert (8), GVA (4), Naesen (2), Sagan
PR: van Aert (9), Pedersen (5), van Marcke (3), Stybar (3), VdP (2), Politt (2), GVA (2), Sagan, Aerts
LBL: Alaphilippe (7), Valverde (5), Roglic (3), Higuita (3), Pogacar (2), Bardet, Woods, Poels, Formolo, Kwiatkowski, Schachmann, Yates
Lombardia: Nibali (12), Evenepoel (3), Alaphilippe (2), Pogacar (2), Schachmann (2), Pinot (2), Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Roglic, Bernal, Fuglsang, Poels

WCTT: Dennis (24), Evenepoel (4)
WCRR: Nibali (8), Valverde (3), Bernal (3), Alaphilippe (4), Fuglsang (3), Pinot (2), Woods (2), Schachmann, Teuns, Bardet

Dennis is about as close to a sure thing as it gets in the WCTT. He was clearly stronger than Remco last year, but how much has the latter matured? We shall see.

LBL appears to be the most wide open of the monuments.

Wow, thanks, I wanted to do this but was too lazy, ugh, busy.

 

[RedheadDane]

Tanks for the info RedheadDane about Pinot not riding Lombardia though PCS had him on the start list. In this case I would like to use Evenepoel as substitute.

Until there's a little green check-mark next to the team name, you can never quite trust the PCS start lists; it's not the first time they've tried making a rider do two races at the same time.

 

[SKSemtex]

I think nobody will object to the late joining. So today ´s tips will be still included. I will close today at midnight.
Thanks, everybody for joining.
Now we have to pray that at least 50% of the races will be ridden.

 

[SKSemtex]

Until there's a little green check-mark next to the team name, you can never quite trust the PCS start lists; it's not the first time they've tried making a rider do two races at the same time.

I will change it.

 

[SKSemtex]

Yeah, makes sense that people think he's gonna ride. Same with the people predicting Sagan for PR... it's a weird year!
Meanwhile, I'm just assuming that the "Yates" listed for L-B-L is Adam.

You are right I only tabulated the tips. I did not have time to do all the later corrections. I will try to do today or anybody who is not happy with his tip still can send me the correct substitution now.

 

[SKSemtex]

Do you think Alaphilippe considers changing his surname since you are pressing so hard, Semtex?

Thanks a lot for your work!!

Thanks. I will change it. I had to unitize the tip-names and I have chosen the wrong one.

 

[SKSemtex]

Do you think Alaphilippe considers changing his surname since you are pressing so hard, Semtex?

Thanks a lot for your work!!

btw. I am quite used for several variations of names but MVDP hit the record.

Van der Poel

Van De Poel

Poels

Mvd Poel

Mathieu van der Poel

Van de Poel

Poel

MVP

Mvd Poel

MVDP

 

[Bonimenier]

btw. I am quite used for several variations of names but MVDP hit the record.

Van der Poel

Van De Poel

Poels

Mvd Poel

Mathieu van der Poel

Van de Poel

Poel

MVP

Mvd Poel

MVDP

Whoever wrote Poels (and maybe even Poel) probably meant Wout Poels, not Mathieu.

 

[SKSemtex]

Great post. In my mind, I feel like this “group” prediction will be very close to what happens. Thanks for compiling this!

I have the same feeling that this time the "general knowledge" or "group prediction" will be succesful. Our "group predictions" of the last three competitions I run, were quite a disaster. Especially spring classics were very interesting with a lot of unpredictable winners.
Like Nibali in MSR.

 

[SKSemtex]

Whoever wrote Poels (and maybe even Poel) probably meant Wout Poels, not Mathieu.

Good point. I completely forgot about this Sky superbot. I have to re-check.

 

[Bonimenier]

Good point. I completely forgot about this Sky superbot. I have to re-check.

He's no Sky superbot anymore this year

 

[Armchair cyclist]

I think nobody will object to the late joining. So today ´s tips will be still included. I will close today at midnight.
Thanks, everybody for joining.
Now we have to pray that at least 50% of the races will be ridden.

Were there entries in January that did not update in July? Will their January predictions still stand?

 

[BlueRoads]

btw. I am quite used for several variations of names but MVDP hit the record.

Van der Poel

Van De Poel

Poels

Mvd Poel

Mathieu van der Poel

Van de Poel

Poel

MVP

Mvd Poel

MVDP

That's how you know you're really famous: when people do the weirdest things with your name and other people still think of you.