Do you think Alaphilippe considers changing his surname since you are pressing so hard, Semtex?
Thanks a lot for your work!!
Thanks a lot for your work!!
If Dumoulin didn't crash last year, he would have been one of the biggest favourites for last year's Tour. But he did crash and now, like Froome, there's an uncertainty that surrounds him - although he is 5 years younger than Froome. In 2018 his level was incredible, but since then guys like Roglic, Bernal and Pinot have raised their level and you wonder if he has perhaps dropped his. Still, one of the world's best riders for the last 5 or so years and with Roglic and Kruijswijk Jumbo will be difficult to stop.I’m big on crowd sourcing, so I decided to tally up the votes. I started with all the races, but my poor old brain couldn’t handle that, so I cut It down to monuments, WC, and GTs. Still too much, so I finally settled on GTs. There have been 27 posts, beginning with Koronin in early July. This is the current tally:
T1: Bernal (9), Roglic (8), Quintana (4), Pinot (3), Thomas (2), Froome
T2: Bernal (12), Roglic (9), Quintana (3), Pinot (3)
T3: Quintana (6), Pinot (6), Froome (3), Pogacar (3), Roglic (4), Buchmann (2), Landa (2), Bernal
G1: Nibali (12), Yates (7), Carapaz (6), Evenepoel (2)
G2: Nibali (7), Fuglsang (6), Carapaz (7), Yates (5), Majka, Bardet
G3: Evenepoel (7), Buchmann (4), Kruj (4), Yates (5), Carapaz (2), Fuglsang (2), Nibali, DePlus, Soler
V1: Pinot (11), Kruijswijk (3), Mas (2), Froome (2), Quintana (2), Buchmann (2), Valverde, Bernal, Pogacar, Sosa, Nibali
V2: Valverde (7), Buchmann (5), Landa (4), Lopez (2), Dumoulin, Mas, Uran, Mollema, Kruijswijk, Froome, Pinot, Pogacar, Bardet
V3: Kruijswijk (6), Valverde (5), Lopez (3), Pinot (3), Zakarain (2), Buchmann (2), Quintana, Sosa, Mas, Izaguirre, Nibali, Gaudu
- Bernal and Roglic are the heavy favorites to win and finish second in the Tour, in either order, with Quintana and Pinot most likely to round out the final podium
- The Giro is a three way race, according to our posters. Most of them think it will be won by either Nibs (most likely), Yates or Carapaz, with all three likely on the final podium. Remco is the best of the rest.
- The Vuelta, as it is in an ordinary year, and even more so this year, is the most wide-open of the GTs, as there is uncertainty as to who will be riding in it. Pinot is a strong favorite to win, but many other riders have been given a chance.
- Biggest snub: Dumoulin. He’s won a Giro, and finished second in another and in the TDF. Yet only one poster picks him even to podium, and only in the Vuelta. I suppose that reflects the heavy competition in the Tour, which doesn’t favor his elite TT ability, but I’m still surprised. Surely if he doesn't do well in the Tour, or even if he does, he will ride in the Vuelta, and would be very competitive there. Is he not 100% healthy or something?
Yeah, I saw several posts pointing out that so-and-so wouldn't actually be riding in a race that some poster had him winning, but I thought it was easier just to tabulate everything that was actually posted. People can make corrections from the list. After all, at this point, we aren't even sure which of these races will actually be held.I would be surprised if Pinot wins Lombardia, considering that he's not actually riding it, he's riding Dauphine instead.
Sure, he's listed on PCS as doing both, but that's gonna be somewhat complicated...
Yeah, makes sense that people think he's gonna ride. Same with the people predicting Sagan for PR... it's a weird year!Yeah, I saw several posts pointing out that so-and-so wouldn't actually be riding in a race that some poster had him winning, but I thought it was easier just to tabulate everything that was actually posted. People can make corrections from the list. I imagine that several or more riders predicted to place in the Vuelta won't be there.
Wow, thanks, I wanted to do this but was too lazy, ugh, busy.Includes Hihope (Shadow did not make a choice for LBL):
MSR: Sagan (12), Gilbert (6), Ewan (4), VdP (3), Bennett, Naesen, Matthews
TdFl: VdP (13), Van Aert (8), GVA (4), Naesen (2), Sagan
PR: van Aert (9), Pedersen (5), van Marcke (3), Stybar (3), VdP (2), Politt (2), GVA (2), Sagan, Aerts
LBL: Alaphilippe (7), Valverde (5), Roglic (3), Higuita (3), Pogacar (2), Bardet, Woods, Poels, Formolo, Kwiatkowski, Schachmann, Yates
Lombardia: Nibali (12), Evenepoel (3), Alaphilippe (2), Pogacar (2), Schachmann (2), Pinot (2), Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Roglic, Bernal, Fuglsang, Poels
WCTT: Dennis (24), Evenepoel (4)
WCRR: Nibali (8), Valverde (3), Bernal (3), Alaphilippe (4), Fuglsang (3), Pinot (2), Woods (2), Schachmann, Teuns, Bardet
Dennis is about as close to a sure thing as it gets in the WCTT. He was clearly stronger than Remco last year, but how much has the latter matured? We shall see.
LBL appears to be the most wide open of the monuments.
Until there's a little green check-mark next to the team name, you can never quite trust the PCS start lists; it's not the first time they've tried making a rider do two races at the same time.Tanks for the info RedheadDane about Pinot not riding Lombardia though PCS had him on the start list. In this case I would like to use Evenepoel as substitute.
You are right I only tabulated the tips. I did not have time to do all the later corrections. I will try to do today or anybody who is not happy with his tip still can send me the correct substitution now.Yeah, makes sense that people think he's gonna ride. Same with the people predicting Sagan for PR... it's a weird year!
Meanwhile, I'm just assuming that the "Yates" listed for L-B-L is Adam.
btw. I am quite used for several variations of names but MVDP hit the record.Do you think Alaphilippe considers changing his surname since you are pressing so hard, Semtex?
Thanks a lot for your work!!
|Van der Poel|
|Van De Poel|
|Mathieu van der Poel|
|Van de Poel|
I have the same feeling that this time the "general knowledge" or "group prediction" will be succesful. Our "group predictions" of the last three competitions I run, were quite a disaster. Especially spring classics were very interesting with a lot of unpredictable winners.Great post. In my mind, I feel like this “group” prediction will be very close to what happens. Thanks for compiling this!
Were there entries in January that did not update in July? Will their January predictions still stand?I think nobody will object to the late joining. So today ´s tips will be still included. I will close today at midnight.
Thanks, everybody for joining.
Now we have to pray that at least 50% of the races will be ridden.
That's how you know you're really famous: when people do the weirdest things with your name and other people still think of you.btw. I am quite used for several variations of names but MVDP hit the record.
Van der Poel Van De Poel Poels Mvd Poel Mathieu van der Poel Van de Poel Poel MVP Mvd Poel MVDP