PREDICTION 2020

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As we have several teams pulling out of the race and the Italian govt considering cancelling all sports events through March, we don't even know if the race will take place let alone who might actually show up. With MdvP sick, I do need a new pick. Will get back to this later once we have more of a start list.
 
So I have gone to several betting websites and researched about the favorites for the Tour de France. To my surprise I found Froome #2 in the lists constantly.

I know that when you want to get a good idea of who might win you go to the bet sites since there is where the money is. However, every year they have one or two our of wack bets.
For the life of me, I cannot place Froome anywhere near # 2 favorite. Not even close. Coming back from that injury and not haven't raced at a top level for at least 1.5 years. Not to mention that he was already not dominant as he once was.

Thoughts?
 
Froome 2nd favourite is purely because for very casual fans just see how he has won a few Tours and won’t necessarily know how severely injured he was and that even getting to the level of being a key super domestique this year would be a big achievement.
The odds reflect that money is still being put on at short odds otherwise he would have drifted by now.
 
So I have gone to several betting websites and researched about the favorites for the Tour de France. To my surprise I found Froome #2 in the lists constantly.

I know that when you want to get a good idea of who might win you go to the bet sites since there is where the money is. However, every year they have one or two our of wack bets.
For the life of me, I cannot place Froome anywhere near # 2 favorite. Not even close. Coming back from that injury and not haven't raced at a top level for at least 1.5 years. Not to mention that he was already not dominant as he once was.

Thoughts?
The thing with Froome is that when you count him as one of the 5 riders to most likely win the tour, he will also be the one with the biggest chance to not even finish top 10. People just don't know what to expect of him. If he really is fully recovered, I think he should be one of the favourites. But if he isn't there is a big chance he will not even come close to top 10. High ceiling, but low floor.
 
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I can't see him in the Top3, no way.
  • he's been severly injured and on my side of thirty
  • he seemed already in slight decline before the injury
  • the route looks it might suit other riders better
  • the circumstances have changed, compared to the years when he was at his best. I'm not even sure Ineos as a team is going to be so dominant
  • the competition is going to be very tough this year
But looking at the bets he is not the only rider with odds that don't look rational. I see Geraint Thomas, Dumoulin, Alaphilippe rather high on the lists and I don't believe in any of them. There are guys in the Top20 who will not even start the Tour. That's just betting logic. It will change when the Tour is closer, but I guess Froome will stay high, because random viewers just know how many times he won, so he seems so dominant, and also because betting is rather popular in some english-speaking countries where Froome / Ineos are very popular. (After all not all people betting on huge events are semi-pro betters, some are just fans who are hoping.)

I think Roglic has a really, really good chance to win, because the route, seemingly designed to be spectacular fit French riders like Bardet and Pinot well, actually looks tailor-made for him and he has a stronger team than the French riders. I would believe in Bernal, but I think the route might not be the one in which he can play all his best cards. But then of course there is no real time trial, so that might help him. The lack of a TTT might help Pinot (I don't believe Bardet will have much of a say.)

In this year of craziness there might also be an upset by someone... Pogacar... Higuita... Buchmann (though he's not quite an attacking character, but in terms of simple ability I rate him highly...)

So, this is my bet (2.6.2020):

1 Roglic
2 Pinot
3 Bernal
4 Buchmann
5 Higuita
6 Quintana
7 Pogacar
8 Yates
9 Lutsenko
10 Landa
 
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Jan 18, 2020
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So I have gone to several betting websites and researched about the favorites for the Tour de France. To my surprise I found Froome #2 in the lists constantly.

I know that when you want to get a good idea of who might win you go to the bet sites since there is where the money is. However, every year they have one or two our of wack bets.
For the life of me, I cannot place Froome anywhere near # 2 favorite. Not even close. Coming back from that injury and not haven't raced at a top level for at least 1.5 years. Not to mention that he was already not dominant as he once was.

Thoughts?
I think the reason is that before the injury he was the dominant GC rider in the world and the clear favourite for last years upcoming tour. I have no idea how the injury will affect him (I don’t think anyone really does) but I honestly think if everyone brings their top form he or Thomas are the only one capable of beating Bernal on this route. Pinot probably would have a chance but seems to self destruct every time and Roglic is clearly a rung below the top climbers. I suppose a rider like Buchmann or pogacar could improve massively but I think the ineos boys followed by Pinot are a ring above everyone else.
 
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I think there is a very good likelihood that we end up someone unlikely in the top 5 and maybe even the podium due to how strange this year is and there won't be many races before the Tour. I also won't be surprised if you have a few riders who did too much on the rollers/trainers and training during this down time and could be burned out by the time we get to the Tour. Then we will have the majority of riders trying to hit peak for the Tour. Obviously a few going to the Giro won't and what 2 rider targeting the Vuelta don't plan on being at peak for it. But if there was ever a year for the vast majority of the peloton to hit peak at the same time for one race it's this year.

I think Enric Mas has a chance to get a top 10. Valverde will likely get a top 10 almost as much because he's one of the very few riders who has dealt with a long layoff and come back plus he has shown he can get a top 10 when not really trying. I also think Pogacar can get a top 10 maybe a top 5. He did surprise at la Vuelta last year so I won't count him out. Not sure Huigita is ready to go for GC at a GT yet.
 
I think the reason is that before the injury he was the dominant GC rider in the world and the clear favourite for last years upcoming tour. I have no idea how the injury will affect him (I don’t think anyone really does) but I honestly think if everyone brings their top form he or Thomas are the only one capable of beating Bernal on this route. Pinot probably would have a chance but seems to self destruct every time and Roglic is clearly a rung below the top climbers. I suppose a rider like Buchmann or pogacar could improve massively but I think the ineos boys followed by Pinot are a ring above everyone else.
Roglic clearly a rung below the best climbers? Not really...
 
Jan 18, 2020
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I think that’s fair and in a tour with a different route he’d be very competitive but this year’s summit finish fest should count out him and Dumoulin who is see as excellent at limiting their losses but just below elite climbing level. He was good in the vuelya but Bernal and Pinot are tougher competition.
 
Data analysts were saying that Roglic' and Valverde's mountain forays were exceptionally strong, watt-wise.

I wouldn't put it past Roglic to win, and in fact I think he is my favourite if I absolutely have to pick one. He is really consistent and his team will be top notch as opposed to the situation in the Giro, 13 months ago.
 
Data analysts were saying that Roglic' and Valverde's mountain forays were exceptionally strong, watt-wise.

I wouldn't put it past Roglic to win, and in fact I think he is my favourite if I absolutely have to pick one. He is really consistent and his team will be top notch as opposed to the situation in the Giro, 13 months ago.
You put him over Bernal? I find it hard to do that considering there is only 1 time trial. It's true that his team in the Giro last year was weaker, but he had the advantage of 3 time trials back then.
 
Well, I certainly would not call Roglic a better climber than Bernal, but the climbs in this year's Tour look more like his? Don't you think they do?
Dumoulin is not exactly explosive and I think this year that might be necessary? His specialty are long, regular climbs? Also I am very unsure about his knee.
 
Tier 1: Bernal, Roglic

Tier 2: GT, Quintana, S. Yates

Tier 3: Pinot, Kruijswijk, Pogacar, Buchmann

Tier 4: Landa, Mas, Lopez, Bardet, Uran, Mollema, Porte, Higuita, Aru

Tier who-the-hell-knows: Froome, Dumoulin.


Of course, being such a strange season, with few racing days before the Tour and almost 5 months without races, surprises might occur. I think guys like Bernal and Roglic have shown a very high base level in the past few years which leads me to believe they will be very good no matter what. Someone like GT is a bit more unpredicatable.
 
I think that’s fair and in a tour with a different route he’d be very competitive but this year’s summit finish fest should count out him and Dumoulin who is see as excellent at limiting their losses but just below elite climbing level. He was good in the vuelya but Bernal and Pinot are tougher competition.
Pinot was not so tough for Simon Yates also at Vuelta...
 

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