Predictions for GC contenders circa 2015

[mc_mountain]

I'm interested in the riders that forum members think will be seriously challenging for grand tours in 5 years time. Presumably Alberto Contador (subject to a postive test - a qualification that applies to all suggestions as does serious injury) and Andy Schleck will still be racing at a high level. As far as I can tell this hasn't specifically been dealt with elsewhere.

There are those with already demonstrated potential such as Robert Gesink, Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger. Others such as Tony Martin, Dan Martin and Jakob Fulgslang are well regarded by their teams. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has shown well at the Giro d'Italia in 2008 and the Tour in 2009. Anyone see any potential for Ricardo Ricco? Any wildcards that might be greats or disappear without trace?

Then there are those already about 30 such as Alejandro Valverde, Denis Menchov, Bradley Wiggins and Frank Schleck Of those in this age bracket who will still be around and competitive. (i'd also be grateful if people could get me up to speed at how realistic it is to think that a slimmed down Fabian Cancellara would be a GC contender and whether he or Saxo have expressed any ambitions in this regard).

Are there any young Americans, Australian or Spanish riders to watch out for?

If anyone can look any further into the future ie riders starting to show GC potential by 2015, that would also be interesting. other points for discussion, what are the markers for grand tour GC potential, do riders need to show GC potential by a certain point in their careers or can there be late bloomers or those that develop into more than time trial or hilly classics riders. would the talents of the riders being suggested favour them doing well at a particular tour.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Will be watching Jack Bobridge with interest.

 

[stefrees]

peter kennaugh. john lee augustyn.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Apart from the ones you named I think Bauke Mollema, Kevin Seeldrayers and Rigoberto Uran will do well in a couple of years.

 

[Merckx]

I agree with ak-zaaf. I think Mollema, D. Martin, Seeldrayers and Uran will figure prominently in the near future. (also can't forget the obvious choices; gesink, nibali, kreuziger and EBH). Also looking forward to seeing phinney and rasmus guldhammer in action. Darkhorse pick: Brice feillu?


' I do realize a cpl of guys I named will probably not challenge for grand tours, but could potentially light things up in the classics.

 

[maltiv]

EBH could turn into an excellent GC rider, although it doesn't seem very likely right now. He does have a VO2 max of almost 90, so it might be possible if he loses some weight.

 

[janraaskalt]

If Rein Taaramae keeps developing like last year, he'll be a serious contender for the Grand Tours in 2015.

 

[Ripper]

Hmmm ...

Just a few ...
- Niels Albert
- Kevin Seeldrayers
- Jack Bobridge
- Robert Gesink
- Vincenzo Nibali

 

[Archieboy]

Romain Sicard...

 

[ak-zaaf]

Jan Bakelants isn't named yet, could also grow to be a GC contender.

@ripper: Do you think that if Albert would leave CX he would become a GC contender or just a really good rider?

 

[issoisso]

Jan Bakelants isn't named yet, could also grow to be a GC contender.

If Bakelants ever learns to climb mountains I'll eat my own testicles

If anyone wants a boom or bust prospect, Kritsky is the ultimate. Given the usual...aheem..."enhancements" that make eastern youth riders so good and then fail as pros when the controls are stricter, it's a risky bet....but if he's as good as a pro as he was as a youth, we're looking at a....well...how can I put this....

"If Cancellara could climb as well as Gesink". That about sums it up.

Kritsky is the ultimate boom or bust youngster

 

[cotterpin]

vdb

What about the latest VDB who appaered in TDF'09? I can't seem to remember his name,only that he was the latest VDB.

 

[yetanothergreenworld]

I'm rooting for Jack Bobridge, Romain Sicard, Rigoberto Uran, and Robert Gesink -- Australia deserves a real Grand Tour contender (who does not spend his best years on a Belgian classics squad ); meanwhile, as someone who grew up watching the Tour in the 80s, I would love to see France, Columbia and the Netherlands get back in the game.

 

[Ripper]

Jan Bakelants isn't named yet, could also grow to be a GC contender.

@ripper: Do you think that if Albert would leave CX he would become a GC contender or just a really good rider?

No idea really! But he is super talented, young, and lighter than many crossers ... so I decided to make him my long shot.

 

[blaxland]

Bobridge,Gesink,Fulsgang all have the credentials for becomming future stars....one of these three will win a GT in the next 5 years.......

 

[Anonymous]

peter kennaugh. john lee augustyn.

Peter will win one hell of a lot of races, and i would stake money on him winning a grand tour

 

[zapata]

I don't know, but I'm hoping for guldhammer, taillefer, and uran. sicard must do ok. Does anyone know what happened to eros capecchi? seem to recall he was predicted to do big things a couple of years ago. Also: remy di gregorio?

 

[Angliru]

I'll agree on Rigoberto Uran and I'll add another Caisse d'Epargne youngster, Rui Costa who won Four Days of Dunkirk at the age of 22. He also was in the mix with the elite near the end of Tour of Lombardy and completed the Tour.
I'm also hoping Juan Mauricio Soler has gained a bit of consistency and avoids injuries to regain the form he had in 2007.

 

[issoisso]

I'll agree on Rigoberto Uran and I'll add another Caisse d'Epargne youngster, Rui Costa who won Four Days of Dunkirk at the age of 22. He also was in the mix with the elite near the end of Tour of Lombardy and completed the Tour.

Actually, he didn't. He crashed on stage 11 or 12 or so.

Not so much with riding the Tour, I was instead impressed with his spring. He crashed on stage 1 of Tirreno, was unconscious for several minutes, remounted, finished the stage, did all other stages (pretty banged up, so he finished miles behind).

Then proceded to ride every single monument. When's the last time a neo-pro did that?

What amazed me the most was that he finished Paris-Roubaix 58th ahead of Hagen, Franzoi, etc.....not only is the guy anything but a flat rider, he'd never ridden a cobbled race in his life before the Ronde this year.

Add to that winning in Dunkerque (HC race), 13th in the Tour de Suisse, selected for the Tour as a neo-pro for Caisse after racing non-stop from february till July, and coming back from the crash to win a race in October and do well in Lombardia. Not bad at all.

Andrey Amador also had a decent season despite a heavy crash. Madrazo disappointed, but then again, not only is he far too young, but also the expectations the spanish have for him are far too heavy and lofty for him to ever live up.

And to finish up Caisse's very promising youngsters, Jeanesson climbed with the elite in a couple of Giro stages.

EDIT: No, I'm not a Caisse fan, quite the opposite. Someone mentioned the team's riders and I ran with it. And the avatar is because of the dog Piti, not because of Valverde

 

[kurtinsc]

Well, Taylor Phinney isn't going to be a GC guy obviously.

Perhaps Peter Stetina (22). 9th in the U23 Liege race this past year, 2nd in a mountain stage in the Cascade Classic (Oscar Sevilla won it), won the US U23 TT championship (2nd straight year), 7th in the Tour l'Avenir, 2nd in a stage of the Tour of the Gila (Leipheimer won it), 3rd in Bob Cook Memorial (Tom Danielson won it). That seems like a future stage racer result list. He's also the son and nephew of former cyclists (Dale and Wayne Stetina... Dale won the Cascade and Coors classics in the 80's, Wayne won the US championship TT and won the Coors Classic as well.)

Another one might be Tejay Van Garderen (21 - rides for Rabo CT). 2nd overall in the Tour l'Avenir, 2nd in the Tour des pas Savoie, 3rd in Olympias Tour, 2nd in the U23 Tour du Haut Anjou, and 3rd in the US under 23 TT championship. At 6'1" though... it's tough to say he'll be able to compete in the very high mountains.

 

[issoisso]

Well, Taylor Phinney isn't going to be a GC guy obviously.

Perhaps Peter Stetina (22). 9th in the U23 Liege race this past year, 2nd in a mountain stage in the Cascade Classic (Oscar Sevilla won it), won the US U23 TT championship (2nd straight year), 7th in the Tour l'Avenir, 2nd in a stage of the Tour of the Gila (Leipheimer won it), 3rd in Bob Cook Memorial (Tom Danielson won it). That seems like a future stage racer result list. He's also the son and nephew of former cyclists (Dale and Wayne Stetina... Dale won the Cascade and Coors classics in the 80's, Wayne won the US championship TT and won the Coors Classic as well.)

Another one might be Tejay Van Garderen (21 - rides for Rabo CT). 2nd overall in the Tour l'Avenir, 2nd in the Tour des pas Savoie, 3rd in Olympias Tour, 2nd in the U23 Tour du Haut Anjou, and 3rd in the US under 23 TT championship. At 6'1" though... it's tough to say he'll be able to compete in the very high mountains.

In climbing I'd prefer Van Garderen over Stetina. At least one of them is likely to evolve into a very nice stage racer. Which is good for the US, as there's quite a generation gap between the current ones who are all above 30 and those two who are in their early 20s.

Also, Van Garderen now rides for Columbia.

 

[kurtinsc]

In climbing I'd prefer Van Garderen over Stetina. At least one of them is likely to evolve into a very nice stage racer. Which is good for the US, as there's quite a generation gap between the current ones who are all above 30 and those two who are in their early 20s.

Also, Van Garderen now rides for Columbia.

Right now, Tejay is probably a bit better climber.

But I always get concerned projecting a young guy over 6'1" to become a great guy in the high mountains. It does happen, but every inch of height seems to make it just a bit less likely that a rider will ever be able to handle the big climbs required of a top stage racer at the pro-tour level.

Bjorn Selander is also interesting to watch. There's no real proof he can ride the mountains... but he can TT a bit and seems to have a body type that might be able to slim down to more of a climbing weight. As one of the few young guys on Radioshack, I'm curious to see how he performs as a domestique this year.

Matt Busche is similarly unknown. I have no clue if he's got any GC potential, but I've heard some people say he's got some incredible raw potential. Apparently he TT'd pretty well in the Tour of Utah and did well in the climbing stages of that race as well. Again... seeing if he can hang a bit on some climbs with radio shack this year will be interesting.

 

[Angliru]

Actually, he didn't. He crashed on stage 11 or 12 or so.

Not so much with riding the Tour, I was instead impressed with his spring. He crashed on stage 1 of Tirreno, was unconscious for several minutes, remounted, finished the stage, did all other stages (pretty banged up, so he finished miles behind).

Then proceded to ride every single monument. When's the last time a neo-pro did that?

What amazed me the most was that he finished Paris-Roubaix 58th ahead of Hagen, Franzoi, etc.....not only is the guy anything but a flat rider, he'd never ridden a cobbled race in his life before the Ronde this year.

Add to that winning in Dunkerque (HC race), 13th in the Tour de Suisse, selected for the Tour as a neo-pro for Caisse after racing non-stop from february till July, and coming back from the crash to win a race in October and do well in Lombardia. Not bad at all.

Andrey Amador also had a decent season despite a heavy crash. Madrazo disappointed, but then again, not only is he far too young, but also the expectations the spanish have for him are far too heavy and lofty for him to ever live up.

And to finish up Caisse's very promising youngsters, Jeanesson climbed with the elite in a couple of Giro stages.

EDIT: No, I'm not a Caisse fan, quite the opposite. Someone mentioned the team's riders and I ran with it. And the avatar is because of the dog Piti, not because of Valverde

You're like an encyclopedia of cycling info. I'll have to start researching my facts rather than relying on my declining ability of recall.
My memory must have failed me because I could've sworn I recalled seeing him trying to hang with elite climbers/gc guys after the break he was in disintegrated and then having the audacity to attempt to attack them! Of course he was later dropped (or crashed out) but for some reason I thought it was one of the later mountainous stages.

Thanks for the tip and I knew that your avatar was focused on Piti and not Valverde, well not in a positive way.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Well, Taylor Phinney isn't going to be a GC guy obviously.

Why do you say that? It really depends on which direction he takes. Not saying he'll win a grand tour, but he has potential to be a top 10 contender, like VDV, for example.

 

[kurtinsc]

Why do you say that? It really depends on which direction he takes. Not saying he'll win a grand tour, but he has potential to be a top 10 contender, like VDV, for example.

Phinney is 6'4".

I'm sorry... but I don't believe you can be that big and really contend for a stage race with any serious mountains in it.

The best he could do from a climbing perspective is what Hincapie did (Big George is 6'3" and has a similar build)... which would be a top 25 type finish but never in contention. In many ways George derailed his classics career for 3-4 years by trying to become a climber.

Phinney is also just 19 years old. It wouldn't be unheard of for him to gain another inch or two of height at that age.

He's a TT/classics guy. Trying to make him a climber just isn't feasible at that height.