Rio 2016 Olympic Road Race and Time Trial courses

[manolo57]

Re: Re:

Considering the third place of Pinot at the last lombardia and the similarities between the two races, I don't see why he couldn't get a result. Barguil and Bardet are good riders but none of them have made a podium in a monument, Pinot did. And he will be important for the ITT, Coppel and him are the best french riders in the discipline right now. Tibopino is clearly the best french rider this season, for me he deserves to be part of the olympic french team.

Agree that he deserves to be part of the French team, but not sure that he maximises their chances of getting a medal. This course is way easier and much less selective than last year's Lombardia, so it's difficult to see how Pinot could place well.

Alaphilippe will surely be their leader - if he can get to the line in a small bunch sprint, he's probably second favourite only to Valverde (God forbid Gerrans has made it as well!). Bardet could go solo either on the climb or the descent and get in a small group, which he could potentially win a sprint from. And Gallopin has a small chance if its a fairly cagey race and he can use his explosivity to go clear in the run in to the line.

I just can't envisage a scenario where Pinot does well, or even where he can be much of an asset to Alaphilippe or Bardet. Whereas Coppel would have an outside shot in the TT of bronze.

Imagine a small group in front of the race with no french riders, and behind an other group at 30" with Pinot and Alaf, Pinot could help Alaf to get back at the front, he is quite good time trialist now. That's only an example. But I repeat I think with the repetition of difficulties, knowing the last climb is 8 km but very hard on the first part, it could suit Pinot.

For Coppel we don't even know if he's better than Pinot, this season he was beaten by his rival two times already : at criterium international and romandie ! I think the ITT french championship will be determining for Coppel : if he's beaten by Pinot, he will certainly lose any chance to go to Rio.

 

[jens_attacks]

Can gerrans win this?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Can gerrans win this?

Hopefully, for the lord of christ with all his might, he will be blasted away on the first ascent.

 

[johnymax]

Re:

Can gerrans win this?

Of course he can. I hope he does, just for the lolz

On a more serious note, If it's raced properly I think it'll be too hard for Gerrans.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

Can gerrans win this?

Unless it's raced really passively, it should be too tough for the likes of Gerrans, Gilbert, Sagan and co. I see the climbing ability of the likes of Alaphillipe, Henao and Dumoulin to be a minimum.

But with 5 man teams, you never know...

 

[jens_attacks]

Just kidding lol...but wait how come is he racing?

My stupid joke might backfire big time...

 

[hfer07]

Re:

Can gerrans win this?

yes and no:

yes- because he's a punchier with a great sprint

no - for peace of mind & the sanity of the cycling fans

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Can gerrans win this?

I don't care what placement it is for, but I really hope he will win his group's sprint ahead of Valverde.

 

[BalearicBeats]

I see an outsider winning this with a late attack! Lutsenko to do a Vino move?

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Just kidding lol...but wait how come is he racing?

My stupid joke might backfire big time...

Gerrans is going as a super-dom for Matthews

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Considering the third place of Pinot at the last lombardia and the similarities between the two races, I don't see why he couldn't get a result. Barguil and Bardet are good riders but none of them have made a podium in a monument, Pinot did. And he will be important for the ITT, Coppel and him are the best french riders in the discipline right now. Tibopino is clearly the best french rider this season, for me he deserves to be part of the olympic french team.

Agree that he deserves to be part of the French team, but not sure that he maximises their chances of getting a medal. This course is way easier and much less selective than last year's Lombardia, so it's difficult to see how Pinot could place well.

Alaphilippe will surely be their leader - if he can get to the line in a small bunch sprint, he's probably second favourite only to Valverde (God forbid Gerrans has made it as well!). Bardet could go solo either on the climb or the descent and get in a small group, which he could potentially win a sprint from. And Gallopin has a small chance if its a fairly cagey race and he can use his explosivity to go clear in the run in to the line.

I just can't envisage a scenario where Pinot does well, or even where he can be much of an asset to Alaphilippe or Bardet. Whereas Coppel would have an outside shot in the TT of bronze.

All good points here. So if I may chime in, I think that unless he screws up at the Nationals, Tibopino will get in the ITT with Coppel. For the road race, Balaphilippe is a no-brainer. After that, Pinot, the best French rider. And he can sprint. See my video for confirmation if you will (a few more views are always appreciated - I'm not making any $ btw)

https://youtu.be/GoGGZk2y3Eg

That video also shows that Pinot is a better sprinter than Bardet. So I would leave Romain out. But I would get Gallopin in. He's fearless, climbs well, sprints well. A smallbunch sprint is a definite possibility, so Barguil? Meh. Why not Chavanel? Chava is on the twilight of his career, he can still do damage, has a good blend to offer on a course like that, experience. he can help with getting the ITT prepared as well. Experience.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Why not colombians?

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: Re:

How does the ITT look like btw? Any profiles?

You can see it in this PDF, I hope the link works
http://www.ffc.fr/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Road-cycling_mens-time-trial.pdf

They do the first circuit of the road race two times, so the TT includes the Grota Funda (2.1km @ 4.5%) hill twice, and the Grumari (1.2km @7%) twice

Any idea how hard the 'Cobble stone section: 2km before Grumari climb' is?

They will asphalt a 1mt wide "line" over the cobbles for the ITT guys have a smooth area to ride throu... the cobbles are NOT smooth at all. So the RR peloton will have some in smooth and some in the cobble.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

How does the ITT look like btw? Any profiles?

You can see it in this PDF, I hope the link works
http://www.ffc.fr/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Road-cycling_mens-time-trial.pdf

They do the first circuit of the road race two times, so the TT includes the Grota Funda (2.1km @ 4.5%) hill twice, and the Grumari (1.2km @7%) twice

Any idea how hard the 'Cobble stone section: 2km before Grumari climb' is?

They will asphalt a 1mt wide "line" over the cobbles for the ITT guys have a smooth area to ride throu... the cobbles are NOT smooth at all. So the RR peloton will have some in smooth and some in the cobble.

Can you do a rain dance before the road race then please?

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: Re:

How does the ITT look like btw? Any profiles?

You can see it in this PDF, I hope the link works
http://www.ffc.fr/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Road-cycling_mens-time-trial.pdf

They do the first circuit of the road race two times, so the TT includes the Grota Funda (2.1km @ 4.5%) hill twice, and the Grumari (1.2km @7%) twice

Any idea how hard the 'Cobble stone section: 2km before Grumari climb' is?

They will asphalt a 1mt wide "line" over the cobbles for the ITT guys have a smooth area to ride throu... the cobbles are NOT smooth at all. So the RR peloton will have some in smooth and some in the cobble.

Can you do a rain dance before the road race then please?

I'll be at the top of the small climb, wich is crazy steep, and for shore will dance for rain!! it'll be end of winter and it doesnt rain that much. BUT when it does usualy is very hard and windy. That ITT place is absolutly beatyfull...

 

[Pippo_San]

It is hard but I don't believe as hard as many of you are making it. Now the real interesting thing is this kind of course paired with 5 man teams. This means madness.
And madness is key for riders who put everything on the line: a brave attack is gonna stick and win this race.
If you recall past Olympics with flattish courses you can get a visual: this race will be a total slaughter.
You either risk hard or lose everything. I can see the team leaders riding hard very soon into the race.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Apparently, Richie Porte has patched up his differences with CA so will be a definite starter and a chance to medal. Have no ide who will be the supportriders.

Not sure he was ever out of favour, it has been Renshaw (always a moaner) & Mick Rogers (post clen positive) who've been critical of Cycling Aus.

He may get selected but AUS best chance of a road medal is via the ITT. Richie may get one of the two TT spots but Dennis is the better chance.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

It is hard but I don't believe as hard as many of you are making it. Now the real interesting thing is this kind of course paired with 5 man teams. This means madness.
And madness is key for riders who put everything on the line: a brave attack is gonna stick and win this race.
If you recall past Olympics with flattish courses you can get a visual: this race will be a total slaughter.
You either risk hard or lose everything. I can see the team leaders riding hard very soon into the race.

Agree that it's nowhere near as hard as some are saying, but not sure that will result in madness. It's still too hard for rouleurs like GVA, Sagan or Cancellara who would be prepared to go from long - they would just get reeled in on the climbs towards the end.

I have a feeling it will be something of an anti-climax. Perhaps a group of 5-10 arriving more or less together at the foot of the final descent. Then a lesser name rider who is in there will solo away on the flat, while all the favourites look at each other and then battle it out for silver.

It seems like the teams of the big favourites are shooting themselves in the foot a bit as well. Why, for example, would Spain select Contador? He's not going to win, he's shown no interest in helping Spain at the WC in recent years, and he's taking away a potentially vital teammate from Valverde or Rodriguez. Same with Italy - would be madness to pick Aru instead of Brambilla - when the latterwould clearly perform a much better role as a team-mate for Nibali.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Same with Italy - would be madness to pick Aru instead of Brambilla - when the latterwould clearly perform a much better role as a team-mate for Nibali.

Has the italian selection been announced yet?

Because I think it's still very early. Felline for instance started riding his bike again this week. Gonna be very difficult for him to be selected but if he can get some racing days in his legs he could be very fresh for Rio.

I'd go something like: Nibali, Rosa, Ulissi, Felline, Moser.

 

[Brullnux]

Is Felline going to Poland? I hope so, to get some racing into his legs. I fear Moser might be put of shape by August, or just entering. Rosa is a given IMO, Ulissi as a teammate or second man if it comes down to a sprint? Not that Ulissi is that fast on the flat, though. I think Cassani might consider Visconti although I hope he won't get picked: in a 9 man team OK, 5 man not so much. I reckon Cassani will select a short list of 10 riders or so by the start of the Tour and make his selection at the end of the TdF or Poland.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

It is hard but I don't believe as hard as many of you are making it. Now the real interesting thing is this kind of course paired with 5 man teams. This means madness.
And madness is key for riders who put everything on the line: a brave attack is gonna stick and win this race.
If you recall past Olympics with flattish courses you can get a visual: this race will be a total slaughter.
You either risk hard or lose everything. I can see the team leaders riding hard very soon into the race.

Agree that it's nowhere near as hard as some are saying, but not sure that will result in madness. It's still too hard for rouleurs like GVA, Sagan or Cancellara who would be prepared to go from long - they would just get reeled in on the climbs towards the end.

I have a feeling it will be something of an anti-climax. Perhaps a group of 5-10 arriving more or less together at the foot of the final descent. Then a lesser name rider who is in there will solo away on the flat, while all the favourites look at each other and then battle it out for silver.

It seems like the teams of the big favourites are shooting themselves in the foot a bit as well. Why, for example, would Spain select Contador? He's not going to win, he's shown no interest in helping Spain at the WC in recent years, and he's taking away a potentially vital teammate from Valverde or Rodriguez. Same with Italy - would be madness to pick Aru instead of Brambilla - when the latterwould clearly perform a much better role as a team-mate for Nibali.

After the recon Nibali said it will be tough even for climbers, Vista Chinesa resembles Ghissalo, technical descent, fast last 10k. He thinks the race will be decided on the climb, probably the last one.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Same with Italy - would be madness to pick Aru instead of Brambilla - when the latterwould clearly perform a much better role as a team-mate for Nibali.

Has the italian selection been announced yet?

Because I think it's still very early. Felline for instance started riding his bike again this week. Gonna be very difficult for him to be selected but if he can get some racing days in his legs he could be very fresh for Rio.

I'd go something like: Nibali, Rosa, Ulissi, Felline, Moser.

No, don't think it's been announced so far.

I think that team has too many potential leaders and not enough willing to sacrifice themselves. I would definitely have Brambilla and Trentin in there. The first 150km are pretty flat, so with five space you need at least one guy who can put in a monster effort on the flat, if not two - and Trentin is probably the best rouleur they have, especially with Malori ruled out.

Add in Rosa and either Brambilla or Scarponi as helpers for Nibali, with either Ulissi or Felline in a semi-protected free role would be a nicely balanced team. Certainly don't see where Aru fits in.

After the recon Nibali said it will be tough even for climbers, Vista Chinesa resembles Ghissalo, technical descent, fast last 10k. He thinks the race will be decided on the climb, probably the last one.

Not sure how much to read into that. He's still lobbying at this stage to be undisputed leader - ahead of Ulissi or Feline, so he's going to want to make out that it's only suitable for the best climbers.

Also not too sure it's so much like Ghisallo either - the lower slopes look similar, but Ghisallo has those tough steep final 2km - while this climb looks pretty gentle for the final 3km. It will be almost impossible for a climber to attack late and gain a significant advantage of the top. They'd have to go in the first half of the climb, and then the super domestiques like Moreno, Rosa would just reel them in.

I think the winner will either be someone that can sprint a bit, or someone who can slip away on the final descent or flat run in to the line.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Just kidding lol...but wait how come is he racing?

My stupid joke might backfire big time...

Gerrans is going as a super-dom for Matthews

Not in million years!

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Not sure how much to read into that. He's still lobbying at this stage to be undisputed leader - ahead of Ulissi or Feline, so he's going to want to make out that it's only suitable for the best climbers.

Ulissi tends to be less effective when the race is longer than 200km, Felline has no palmares to speak of and is coming from a terrible injury.
I'd say the only rider who can challenge Nibali's role at the moment is Rosa, unless Aru does something crazy at the Tour.

Trentin and Brambilla would be good selections, but Moser could ride the TT as well, which is a plus, and he can do a bit of everything.

Gasparotto is another interesting rider for such a parcours, although he has never done much outside of the Ardennes.

 

[MatParker117]

TJVG has pulled out due to Zika, his wife is pregnant and he doesn't want to risk it.