Rodriguez in Giro

[El Pistolero]

I'm just quoting José Rujano, don't shoot the messenger.

When it comes to the super-steep stuff, I mean the 20%+ stuff, then Rodríguez is near enough the best in the business. Unfortunately for him, there aren't too many climbs like that that can feasibly be used.

Just out of curiosity, who's the best climber according to Rujano?

I wouldn't call Rujano the third best climber anyway.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Just out of curiosity, who's the best climber according to Rujano?

I wouldn't call Rujano the third best climber anyway.

Contador of course. Rujano was speaking back in January last year when he made that quote, so long before Contador tested positive.

 

[Ferminal]

Yes please!

Purito wouldn't beat any reasonable TTer in the Tour - see Menchov, Sanchez, Evans (but could still make the race exciting!)

Even Andy is better against the clock, and I don't think he can outclimb Andy consistently.

I kind of forgot the TT details for the Giro... TTT to start, MTF ITT, and the flat Milan ITT? So no serious gains/losses either way in the first two, he might lose 1 to 2 minutes to Ricco and a bit more to Sharko in Milan.

Tbh I want to see him do every GT

 

[royalpig180]

The Vuelta didn't have a Zoncolan, where Rodriguez on a good day could really destroy Nibali. He could have the victory sewn up even before the final TT. I actually hope J-Rod will do the Giro, he'd be the no. 1 favourite in my book.

It may not be the Zoncolan, but the Bola del Mundo wasn't exactly a cakewalk either...

Nibali beat Rodriguez by 20 seconds on that stage.
Now I'm not arguing that this is comparable to the Zoncolan and I understand that Nibali had everything to ride for that day, but the point is we can't assume that he'll be blown away by Rodriguez on any hard climb. Anyone can have a bad day.

I think it's more likely that Ricco or Rujano wins the Giro, but Nibali would finish higher than J-Rod if he does race.

 

[The Hitch]

It may not be the Zoncolan, but the Bola del Mundo wasn't exactly a cakewalk either...

Nibali beat Rodriguez by 20 seconds on that stage.
Now I'm not arguing that this is comparable to the Zoncolan and I understand that Nibali had everything to ride for that day, but the point is we can't assume that he'll be blown away by Rodriguez on any hard climb. Anyone can have a bad day.

I think it's more likely that Ricco or Rujano wins the Giro, but Nibali would finish higher than J-Rod if he does race.

Oh its such a shame Ruben isnt here to tell you how stupid you are and how Nibali will never win a gt etc.

But in all seriousness, Nibali had rested and prepared for the Vuelta. Rodriguez had just done the Tour and he hadnt even rested much before that.

Look at Menchov. He didnt do half what Nibali did during the season, but was too tired to perform after that Tour at the Vuelta. Samu skipped what looked like a certain grand tour victory and Andrew, well the less said about that the better. So we cant say that Purito would have been on his best form either.

and despite all that he still won the stage to Pena Cabenga, and crushed Nibali on alto de Cotobelo.

Take Rodriguez's fatigue out of the picture and you have far bigger gaps on those stages and smaller gaps on tt and Bola.
Now take those mountains double them then increase their gradients massively, and take out the tt. What you have left is a picture far more rosy for the Catalan and far less so for the Sicilian.

 

[royalpig180]

Oh its such a shame Ruben isnt here to tell you how stupid you are and how Nibali will never win a gt etc.

But in all seriousness, Nibali had rested and prepared for the Vuelta. Rodriguez had just done the Tour and he hadnt even rested much before that. Look at Menchov. He didnt do half what Nibali did during the season, but was too tired to perform after that Tour at the Vuelta. Samu skipped what looked like a certain grand tour victory and Andrew, well the less said about that the better. So we cant say that Purito would have been on his best form either.

and despite all that he still won the stage to Pena Cabenga, and crushed Nibali on alto de Cotobelo.

Take Rodriguez's fatigue out of the picture and you have far bigger gaps on those stages and smaller gaps on tt and Bola.
Now take those mountains double them then increase their gradients massively, and take out the tt. What you have left is a picture far more rosy for the Catalan and far less so for the Sicilian.

This may be true, but keep in mind that we may be looking at a similar situation next May. Rodriguez has repeatedly stated that he has prioritized the Ardennes over the Giro next year, and a large part of the reason he is even considering riding the Giro is pressure from Katusha.

Point is, he will come into the Giro fatigued from going all-out in the Ardennes, similarly to last year at the Vuelta after he had recently finished the Tour. Yes the Tour is a harder race than a series of classics, but keep in mind that he had a full month (ish) to recover between the Tour and Vuelta while he will only have 1-2 weeks to recover from the Ardennes before the Giro.

And of course, the Giro is Nibali's big goal for the first half of the season, if not the entire season, so you know he'll be there prepared and rested, just like he was at the Vuelta last year. And he'll also have the advantage of riding on home soil, as well as the route reconaissance he's already begun.

 

[rxgqgxnyfz]

Rodriguez is very strong contender for Giro win, if not for the two "but"s:

-- TT, well duh
-- team is also somewhat lacking in mountainous power, of course if Purito actually needs it is another question, but it certainly won't harm. In Vuelta only Karpets was there in the mountains and even him was a good 100 or 200 meters away from him in the second/third groups. And losing Petrov (Katusha's only Giro stage winner) definitely doesn't help.
________
Bondage slave

 

[Kwibus]

Oh its such a shame Ruben isnt here to tell you how stupid you are and how Nibali will never win a gt etc.

But in all seriousness, Nibali had rested and prepared for the Vuelta. Rodriguez had just done the Tour and he hadnt even rested much before that.

Look at Menchov. He didnt do half what Nibali did during the season, but was too tired to perform after that Tour at the Vuelta. Samu skipped what looked like a certain grand tour victory and Andrew, well the less said about that the better. So we cant say that Purito would have been on his best form either.

and despite all that he still won the stage to Pena Cabenga, and crushed Nibali on alto de Cotobelo.

Take Rodriguez's fatigue out of the picture and you have far bigger gaps on those stages and smaller gaps on tt and Bola.
Now take those mountains double them then increase their gradients massively, and take out the tt. What you have left is a picture far more rosy for the Catalan and far less so for the Sicilian.

Menchov and Schleck are poor examples. They have never ever been able to ride 2 decent GTs in 1 year. I never even expected they would do good in the Vuelta allthough I hoped they would proof me wrong.

Still it was absolutely not in his favour that he did ride the TdF and Nibali didn't for obvious reasons.

 

[Kwibus]

It would certainly be great to see Rodriguez in the Giro. Personally I don't think he will win, but he sure does have a chance if goes for it. Besides that a podium is still very nice.

He will have to skip the ardennes classics though which I don't expect him to do. Let's face it we do want to see him there as well. Allthough AGR and L-B-L aren't that perfect for him he still is a dark horse to win 1 of those races. He can do it...

I like Rodigruez. He had a fantastic season last year showing his skill during the entire year, but I've not seen him dominate on the long climbs really. That's for me enough to know he probably won't win a GT. I could be wrong ofcourse

 

[El Pistolero]

Oh its such a shame Ruben isnt here to tell you how stupid you are and how Nibali will never win a gt etc.

But in all seriousness, Nibali had rested and prepared for the Vuelta. Rodriguez had just done the Tour and he hadnt even rested much before that.

Look at Menchov. He didnt do half what Nibali did during the season, but was too tired to perform after that Tour at the Vuelta. Samu skipped what looked like a certain grand tour victory and Andrew, well the less said about that the better. So we cant say that Purito would have been on his best form either.

and despite all that he still won the stage to Pena Cabenga, and crushed Nibali on alto de Cotobelo.

Take Rodriguez's fatigue out of the picture and you have far bigger gaps on those stages and smaller gaps on tt and Bola.
Now take those mountains double them then increase their gradients massively, and take out the tt. What you have left is a picture far more rosy for the Catalan and far less so for the Sicilian.

Also take into account an incredibly weak Vuelta field after Anton dropping out. Little time trials, and he still couldn't win. The only ones of the Tour top 10 this year that could win the Giro next year are Contador(banned), Andy Schleck(won't ride the Giro), Menchov(perhaps not this edition though) and Samu Sanchez. Perhaps Gesink, he's still young, but I'd be very surprised.

 

[theyoungest]

Also take into account an incredibly weak Vuelta field after Anton dropping out. Little time trials, and he still couldn't win. The only ones of the Tour top 10 this year that could win the Giro next year are Contador(banned), Andy Schleck(won't ride the Giro), Menchov(perhaps not this edition though) and Samu Sanchez. Perhaps Gesink, he's still young, but I'd be very surprised.

Rodriguez basically raced for the entire season. If he'd started the Vuelta fresh, the picture might have been a little different.

 

[Kwibus]

Rodriguez basically raced for the entire season. If he'd started the Vuelta fresh, the picture might have been a little different.

Allthough you are probably right we can't be sure about it. Let him focus more on specific races and see if he can really win those races.

 

[Luis Ocaña]

Too bad for Purito the Ardennes classics and the Giro are very hard to combine. He's imo the top favourite for Fleche and an outsider for LBL, but the Giro's weak field this year might give him a unique opportunity to win a GT too.

 

[uphillstruggle]

Point is, he will come into the Giro fatigued from going all-out in the Ardennes, similarly to last year at the Vuelta after he had recently finished the Tour. Yes the Tour is a harder race than a series of classics, but keep in mind that he had a full month (ish) to recover between the Tour and Vuelta while he will only have 1-2 weeks to recover from the Ardennes before the Giro.

And of course, the Giro is Nibali's big goal for the first half of the season, if not the entire season, so you know he'll be there prepared and rested, just like he was at the Vuelta last year. And he'll also have the advantage of riding on home soil, as well as the route reconaissance he's already begun.

I think this is the major reason he won't win a GT to be honest, he either likes to, or is coerced into riding a lot of races to win - hence being top of the rankings while not being the best rider by any means.

If he had an easier schedule and went all out for the Giro I think he could do it this year. Irony being that what makes me like him so much (him racing oldschool hard all season) is what may mean he does get the wins I would liek to see him get.

 

[El Pistolero]

You guys honestly think someone that was more then 11 minutes down on Contador at the Tour this year can win the Giro? You can't really use the excuse of too much racing here as Contador raced just at much at that point in the season. Purito is good on the steep parts and the Giro has more of that, but there are also long climbs that aren't super steep. I'm confident he'll lose the bulk of his time in those stages and the time trials.

Me thinks you guys are underestimating the Italians then.

Ardennes and the Giro are combinable. Di Luca won both LBL and the Giro in 2007.

 

[Luis Ocaña]

You guys honestly think someone that was more then 11 minutes down on Contador at the Tour this year can win the Giro? You can't really use the excuse of too much racing here as Contador raced just at much at that point in the season.

Against a decent field? Definitely no. But Nibali is the top favourite, the one Purito outclimbed at the Vuelta. If he can ever win a GT, it's this year's Giro. Weak field, few flat ITT kms, steep climbs,.. And Purito did actually race more. Catalunya, Pais Vasco,.. On top of that, he practically went all in in every race, because he targetted the UCI World Ranking.

Purito is good on the steep parts and the Giro has more of that, but there are also long climbs that aren't super steep. I'm confident he'll lose the bulk of his time in those stages and the time trials.

What makes you so confident? I say, Col du Tourmalet. Yes, he will lose time in the time trials, but there are few kms in the upcoming edition. He lost more than 5 minutes in ITT's (and 1:12 in the cobbled stage) at Contador this year. But he won't lose half us much in the Giro..

Ardennes and the Giro are combinable. Di Luca won both LBL and the Giro in 2007.

Yeah, Di Luca *uhum*. That's one example. Generally, it's very hard to combine these two.

 

[roundabout]

for all the Tourmalet mentions there are also days like stage 15 of the Tour where he came in with people like De Weert,

 

[Luis Ocaña]

for all the Tourmalet mentions there are also days like stage 15 of the Tour where he came in with people like De Weert,

True. But he can handle such climbs too, even in the third week, after an already exhausting season.

 

[icefire]

Marca has a story about Di Luca going to Katusha including a remarcable statement from Tchmil to DDL: You'll help Purito in the Giro, and you'll have your options later on in the Vuelta.

http://www.marca.com/2011/01/10/ciclismo/1294659493.html